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Tide turning against Bashar Al-Assad

Reports of the imminent demise of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad may be exaggerated, but analysts in the region say that Assad is gradually losing ground to an increasingly united coalition of rebel groups, backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.
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May 19, 2015

This article originally appeared on The Media Line.

Reports of the imminent demise of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad may be exaggerated, but analysts in the region say that Assad is gradually losing ground to an increasingly united coalition of rebel groups, backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. They say it is not too early to begin to prepare for what Syria will look like after Assad is forced to leave Syria.

“For the past four years, Assad, supported by Iran, has had the upper hand,” Mario Abou Zeid, an expert at the Carnegie Center for Middle East Peace in Beirut told The Media Line. “But now, because of the agreement between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, things are gradually shifting.”

Those three majority-Sunni states had been arguing among themselves for most of the past four years, about who to support in the Syria conflict. Now they are uniting the dozens of rebel forces under one umbrella, calling it the Army of Conquest. They are also giving them significant amounts of arms and money, and they have made some impressive strides against Assad’s troops.

The Islamic State (IS) is also continuing to make gains in Syria, and is currently on the outskirts of Palmyra, a UNESCO world heritage site. There are fears that if they succeed in taking over the site, they could destroy it as they have other heritage sites. IS remains strong in Syria, and is making gains in neighboring Iraq as well.

IS remains popular among young radical Islamists. A new report by the European Union found that at least 6000 fighters from Europe are reported to have traveled to Syria to join IS. When these fighters return to Europe as some have already begun to do, they could present a threat to European governments.

It is impossible to predict how long the Syrian government will be able to stay in power.

“The Syria crisis is all about ups and downs,” Eyal Zisser, a Syria expert at Bar Ilan University in Israel, told The Media Line. “But now each up, doesn’t bring him to the same place it was before the down. The course of events is against Assad, but I don’t think we can talk we can talk in terms of days, weeks, or perhaps even months.”

The civil war in Syria has lasted far longer than many had expected. Estimates of the total death toll are more than 215,000 including 20,000 children. According to the United Nations, three million Syrians have fled to neighboring countries including Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, while more than six million are displaced within Syria itself.

Syria has become a stage where Assad, backed heavily by Shi’ite Iran and pro-Iranian Hizbullah fighters from neighboring Lebanon, are facing off against Sunni groups including Islamic State and Al-Nusra. The Saudi and Qatari efforts to unify the rebel groups are beginning to bear fruit, although Islamic State continues with its own efforts to establish a caliphate in Syria and neighboring Iraq. The group has made some strides in Iraq recently, including the takeover of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province.

The fall of Assad could cause chaos in the Middle East. It would especially have implications for Syria’s neighbors, Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon, with its population of four million people, has been struggling to cope with a flood of more than one million refugees. Hizbullah is the most important political party in Lebanon, and could be weakened by Assad’s fall.

Syria’s other neighbor Israel has carefully avoided getting involved in the Syria crisis other than treating hundreds of wounded Syrian rebels near the border. Many Israeli officials have described Assad as “the devil they know” and have hinted that they would prefer to see Assad stay in power.

At the same time, Israel is pleased that both Assad and Hizbullah are too busy fighting each other to launch attacks on Israel. Recently, Israeli officials have been warning of the growing threat that Hizbullah could pose to Israel, with more than 100,000 rockets and missiles that can reach most of the Jewish state.

Syria is effectively being divided into three mini-states, each covering about one-third of the country. One state is the Alawite areas on the coast and Damascus, still controlled by Assad; one third is controlled by Islamic State; and one third by the rebels.
 

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