Jordan could play key role in calming Israeli-Palestinian tensions

This article originally appeared on The Media Line.

When Secretary of State John Kerry decide to fly to the Middle East to try to calm rising Israeli-Palestinian tensions after a wave of stabbing and shooting attacks, he did not land in Jerusalem, but in Amman, the capital of Jordan. Kerry’s choice shows the important role of the Hashemite Kingdom’s head of state, King Abdullah II, who has good relationships with the Israelis, the Palestinians and the Americans.

Following the talks, Kerry announced a series of  steps designed to ease tensions between Israel and the Palestinian centered on Jerusalem and the compound at the heart of the city, known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslim as the Noble Sanctuary. Chief among these measures was the King’s proposal to place 24-hours security cameras overlooking the contested site.

Jordan’s reigning monarch since 1999, the English educated, 53-year old, Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein remains popular among Jordanians. Pictures of the King adorn the interior of offices and stare down onto pedestrians in the street in every city in the country. Jordan maintains a key role in the ongoing dispute in Jerusalem, as its peace treaty with Israel states that the Hashemite Kingdom is responsible for supervising the Noble Sanctuary. The Muslim Waqf, which supervises the site, is a Jordanian body, although Israel maintains overall security at the site, and will send Israeli soldiers in when officials believe it is needed.

Israel and the United States would be keen to see Abdullah intervene and try to put an end to violence between Israelis and Palestinians, Yoram Meital, head of the Herzog Center for Middle East studies at Ben Gurion University, told The Media Line. From the Israeli government’s point of view, Jordan’s role is essential, due to the hostility between the current right-wing cabinet and the Palestinian Authority (PA).

“For Bibi (Binyamin) Netanyahu, King Abdullah would be a much better partner (than Mahmoud Abbas) to speak with and maybe get into agreement with on the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa,” the professor suggested.

However, Abdullah is unlikely to relish being brought in as mediator. For one, if Abdullah was to declare that Israel was maintaining the status quo, as both Israel and the US desire, the King would lose credibility with his own people. Although high level cooperation exists between the two neighboring countries, Israel is still viewed with suspicion by a great number of Jordanians. Amman, the country’s capital, has recently seen demonstrations, where protestors condemned what they declared as Israeli violence towards Palestinians in recent weeks.

“King Abdullah is not a mediator to Israel and Palestine – Jordan has made this clear,” Oraib Rantawi, the founder and director general of the Amman-based Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, told The Media Line. Jordan views itself as committed to the establishment of a Palestinian state and so does not wish to be pushed into acting as neutral mediator, Rantawi explained.

“It is the US who has the power and the moral responsibility (to take this role),” he said.

To add to Abdullah II’s reasons for shying away from becoming a broker, is his inability to trust the Israeli Prime Minister, both Rantawi and Meital separately suggested. “Abdullah has no trust, no confidence, in Netanyahu because he does not commit to what he says,” Rantawi argued.

Despite this Kerry managed to reach some agreement. “I am very pleased to announce today that Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to what I think is an excellent suggestion by King Abdullah, to provide 24-hour video coverage of all sites,” John Kerry said. Such monitoring will reduce the ability of individuals to use the holy site as a means to create incitement in Jerusalem, the Secretary of State declared.

However, when Muslim Waqf officials tried to install cameras this week, Israel took them down, saying they had not been coordinated.

“This arrangement that Kerry put through will not hold water in the long term because he did not address the core issue – Palestinian claims for full sovereignty,” Meital said.

For the time being such concerns are being overshadowed by other events in the Middle East. For the US and Jordan, the Islamic State (ISIS) poses a more pressing danger. The jihadist organization and the Syrian civil war which helped create it, represent a continued threat to Jordan.

However, it is something that that the monarch, after sixteen years on the throne, has the experience and the reputation to handle, Rantawi hinted. “Jordan is one of the few Arab countries still secure and stable – this does not happen accidentally, it is the result of policies enacted by the king himself,” the academic declared.

Jordan’s handling of the turbulence of 2011 and the Arab Spring appear to coincide with this view. Although street protests did occur, unlike in most neighboring states the security forces did not require large scale violence to put down demands for reforms. As Rantawi put it, “in Jordan people talked about regime reform but not regime change.” Compared to Iraq, Syria or even Egypt, the smaller Hashemite Kingdom appears stable and running business as usual.