September 14, 2012
Former officials: Israeli or U.S. strike would only delay Iran’s nuclear plans, could backfire
A group of former U.S. security officials said an Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities may delay Iran’s nuclear program by two to four years.
A U.S. air strike involving Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) stealth B-2 bombers dropping 30,000-pound precision-guided penetrating bombs “carried out to near perfection” could delay Iran’s program by up to four years, according to the report.
The report was released on Thursday by the “Iran Project,” a New York-based bipartisan group of former national-security officials and foreign-policy specialists, Bloomberg News reported.
A unilateral strike by Israel “with its more limited capabilities, could delay Iran’s ability to build a bomb by up to two years,” the report said.
An Israeli airstrike “is unlikely to succeed in destroying or even seriously damaging” the deeply buried Fordo enrichment facility and the stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium there, the report said.
Air raids, commando assaults and computer network attacks “would destroy or severely damage many of Iran’s physical facilities and stockpiles,” according to the report. But, the report asserted, “complete destruction” of Iran’s nuclear program is unlikely.
The report concluded that an attack would “damage the U.S. reputation and standing.”
“If Iran’s nuclear program is attacked by the U.S. or Israel in the absence of an international mandate or a multinational coalition, support for maintaining sanctions against Iran could be substantially weakened,” the report said.
Iran may retaliate by attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, an action that would “rattle global markets and cause a significant spike in oil prices,” according to the report.