Bush Ups the Ante — Cautiously

The Bush administration, this week facing its first critical Mideast crisis, is seeking a new formulation to enable it to play a role in keeping conflict from spreading without requiring intensive direct mediation.

The strategy included a blunt assessment blaming the Palestinians for "precipitating" the round of violence that ended with the brief Israeli occupation of land in Palestinian-controlled Gaza, but also unusually harsh criticism of Israel’s response.

That language, and some quiet diplomatic arm twisting, apparently resulted in Israel’s quick withdrawal from Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza.

Israeli officials in Washington and Jerusalem insisted that the withdrawal was already in progress when Secretary of State Colin Powell launched his diplomatic blast on Tuesday, but statements by IDF officers on the ground suggested an abrupt about-face by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

The reoccupation came during a major series of attacks on Monday aimed at ending Palestinian mortar fire into Israeli towns.

On Tuesday Secretary of State Colin Powell called the Israel response "excessive and disproportionate. We call upon both sides to respect the agreements that they’ve signed."

For the Palestinians, that means "implementation of their commitment to renounce terrorism and violence, to exercise control over all elements of the PLO and the Palestinian Authority, and to discipline violators," Powell said.

But he also suggested that in entering Palestinian-controlled territory, Israel was violating earlier agreements.

"For the Israelis, this includes respecting their commitment to withdraw from Gaza according to the terms of the agreement signed by Israel and the Palestinians," he said.

Powell said that U.S. officials continue to work with both sides to resume the security talks that began two weeks ago.

The harsh response was prompted by comments by an Israeli commander in Gaza that the reoccupation could last for "days, weeks and months."

"That would have been an unfortunate escalation, and the administration reacted strongly to it," said Robert O. Freedman, a longtime Mideast analyst and peace process supporter.

But Anti-Defamation League director Abraham Foxman called Powell’s assessment an "unwarranted overreaction. Palestinian mortar attacks against an Israeli town in the Negev desert introduced a new dimension into the seven-month long period of violence. Israel, which has the responsibility to protect its citizens, had no choice but to demonstrate that the Palestinian’s escalation of hostilities into Israel proper will not be tolerated."

Powell’s strong words came a day after White House press secretary Ari Fleischer’s reaction to the Israel raid on a Syrian radar in Lebanon won praise from Jewish leaders.

"In the last several days there has been a dangerous escalation across the line of withdrawal," Fleischer said. "And the United States condemns this escalation that was initiated by Hezbollah in a clear provocation designed to escalate an already tense situation."

Jewish leaders welcomed that assessment.

"Obviously, the administration wants to see the violence end, but they have a good understanding of who initiated it," said Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice-chair of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations.

Analysts say it is too early to say whether the escalation of violence will force the new administration to abandon its hands-off policy when it comes to direct U.S. mediation.

"Obviously, events in the region have a way of drawing the United States in, because Washington is literally the only outside force capable of having an impact," said an analyst for a major Jewish group here. "But so far, at least, this administration is confining itself to carefully chosen words aimed at getting the parties themselves to limit their responses; there’s no indication they plan any more direct involvement at this time."

On Tuesday State Department spokesman Richard Boucher turned aside a question about whether Washington was prepared to become a more active participant, saying only that "we’re offering to facilitate, as we have in the past. We are encouraging the parties to engage each other bilaterally and offering to do whatever we can to facilitate those talks."

Washington sources say there are no plans to send any U.S. official to the region to try to mediate a reduction in the violence.

But officials here revealed that the CIA was once again involved in security talks between the two sides; early in his administration, President George W. Bush pulled the intelligence agency out of direct involvement in negotiations.

"That may indicate that under the surface, they are becoming more active," said Freedman.

David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that the Bush administration understands the difficult line Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is trying to navigate.

"On one hand he is trying to signal that Israel has the stamina to withstand any war of attrition, that Israel is not an ‘MTV generation’ that does not have the will to fight," he said. "On the other hand, he wants to avoid staging massive responses that would lead to a large loss of life and create tremendous international pressures."

Despite this week’s strong statement from Foggy Bottom, Makovsky said that the administration remains supportive of Israel’s overall position.