January 13, 2012 | 9:24 pm

The Emerging Debate about “the Jewish Vote”

Posted by Steven Windmueller

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Originally posted on Sep 22, 2011

Over the past few days, in light of recent polling results, the election outcome in New York’s 9^th Congressional District and a myriad of articles in such publications as New York Magazine, the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times, a national discussion has resurfaced related to the status of the Jewish vote. Are Jews likely to vote Republican in the 2012 election? One can track predictions of such a voting shift since the 1950’s. In past presidential elections, including the Carter-Reagan contest of 1980 and the Bush-Kerry race of 2004 as well as the 2008 Obama-McCain election, we were regularly introduced to this question.

Five elements ought to be considered in making any forecasts or projections about voter behavior within the Jewish community. First, Americans retain a very high degree of loyalty to their political values and party connections; the Jewish voting record seems to confirm this principle. Since 1916 Jews have inserted themselves into the ranks of the Democratic Party and without exception since 1932 have remained supportive of its national ticket.

Second, voter disenchantment should not be confused with expressions of unhappiness with particular candidates or Presidents as in the case of President Carter and now President Obama, as Jews have readily retained their ties to the Democratic Party.

Third, as we well know, these voters arrive at their decision based on an array of issues and political interests; the broader question for 2012 is what factors, beyond the current debate within the community regarding the President’s policies toward the State of Israel, will impact the Jewish vote? From past polling Jews have expressed an array of domestic and foreign policy interests that frames the basis of Jewish political behavior. It would be an error to view “the Jewish vote” as a “single-issue” constituency. More significant for such voters who are concerned with church-state issues, health policy, economic matters, among other considerations, is how effective will the President’s opponent be in convincing these voters to change their traditional political loyalties or to overcome their political fears when embracing a conservative Republican candidate? As important as the direction of the vote itself will be the pattern of Jewish financial participation within the 2012 campaign. Which Republican candidate(s) might benefit from any shift of campaign revenues? In the end, will the Democrats reclaim their base of Jewish donors?

Fourth, it is important to note a shifting set of Jewish demographic and social trends: among younger Jews one finds an increasing number of independent and Republican voters; newer American Jewish voters, especially from the former Soviet Union and Iran, who tend to identify with the Republican Party. A growing base of Republican Jewish support is represented by the active engagement of Orthodox Jews.  The impact of the Tea Party ought not to be diminished as well, according to a recent Pew Foundation study; some 15% of Jews are inclined to support that movement and/or its candidates. A subgroup in this coming election that will draw a great deal of attention will be Baby Boomers, who may feel the anxieties of an uncertain economy as they plan or enter retirement, will they find reason to support a different philosophy of finance and governance? Mainstream Jewish Democrats have tended to cast their votes in national elections that reflect their liberal values; will this focus on the collective good continue in 2012, or are we likely to see a shift that resonates a specific focus on personal or self-interest concerns?

Fifth, there are different elements or groups that comprise the Jewish vote. If we are to truly understand voting behavior, we need to appreciate the various cohorts that define our community’s political base. Elsewhere I have written about these distinctive voices within Jewish life. The Jewish vote is more complex than the media often describes. A shift on the edge among specific sectors of our community could have profound implications for a national election outcome. A 20% shift of the Jewish vote could have an impact on the results in such states as Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania.

I think it is health and essential for a community to examine its core interests and assess its political options.

I welcome your feedback related to these blogs and invite you to visit www.thewindreport.com

Steven Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor of Jewish Communal Service
HUC-JIR
Los Angeles Campus
3077 University Avenue
Los Angles, Ca. 90007
swindmueller@huc.edu
213-765-2190 Office
see: www.thewindreport.com

January 13, 2012 | 9:18 pm

New York’s 9th Congressional District

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Originally posted on September 14, 2011

Tonight’s stunning victory by Robert Turner, a Republican, over Democrat David Weprin may provide a window into the 2012 Presidential campaign. No Republican has held this seat since 1923. This seat was most recently held by Anthony Weiner, who was forced to resign in June. The seat itself may be reapportioned later this year, as New York needs to reconfigure its Congressional representation.

To the voters in these blue-collar Catholic and Jewish neighborhoods of Queens and Brooklyn, President Obama’s message is apparently not resonating. What must be understood as well the President won this district receiving only 55% of the vote; in comparison, Al Gore won the 9th District with 67% of the vote in 2000.

With a median income of only $45,000, the families in this part of New York City may well be responding to the economic concerns of the nation. In an array of polls taken in advance of today’s election, Jewish voters specifically referenced the President’s Israel policies as the basis of their employing this election to send a critical message to the White House.

This district, with its large Orthodox constituency, blue collar base, and immigrant population, maybe an interesting point of measure for key segments of the 2012 Jewish vote. Yet, it is too early to make any definitive statement pertaining to the 2012 election. But there are clear indicators that at least some key groupings within the Jewish community are prepared to make a definitive statement!

The Wind Report will be regularly posting commentaries related to the 2012 Elections and the Jewish vote.

Steven F. Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor
HUC-JIR Los Angeles Campus
213-765-2190
www.thewindreport.com

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January 12, 2012 | 12:00 am

2012 Elections and the Jewish Vote

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Originally published September 14, 2011

The forthcoming Presidential election promises to be a challenging time for America. For Jews, a number of key issues will be particularly significant as we enter this political cycle. The American-Israel connection will continue to play a defining role. Economic issues, national security concerns, and the general state of U.S. foreign policy priorities will all be seen as important to this community. Among various Jewish constituencies, domestic interests including job-creation and educational initiatives, immigration reform, and health and social service programs will be seen as compelling.

At the outset of the 2012 campaign, it would appear that American Jews, as in the past several national elections, are divided along party lines. One of the compelling issues however will be to determine if President Obama has experienced an erosion of support, and if so,what might be the nature and depth of that voter dissatisfaction.

The Wind Report will seek to capture the key elements related to the Jewish vote, as it unfolds over the next 14 months.

Your comments and questions are solicited.

Steven F. Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor
HUC-JIR
Los Angeles Campus
www.thewindreport.com

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January 6, 2012 | 3:12 pm

What is The Wind Report?

Posted by Steven Windmueller

The Wind Report serves as a repository of my writings and research covering a fifteen year framework. It is being made available in this format as a way to share my ideas pertaining to communal policy and social trends. The website is divided among a number of specialty areas that allows the reader to select particular subjects of interest.

I welcome your thoughtful feedback, as I continue to explore new areas of inquiry. Collectively, this material reflects this unique moment in time with its various social and economic uncertainties. The articles and documents that comprise this site seek to examine the implications of these transformational times on the state of political behavior, institutional leadership, organizational culture and management, and our global society. The Jewish community is seen here as a laboratory of study, just as it represents an important and sustaining voice in the contemporary world.

Thank you for taking the time to journey through these commentaries.

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