May 9, 2012 | 9:43 am

Jews that Count, and the Rest of Us

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Follow JewishJournal.com on

In this forthcoming Presidential election, only about a fourth of American Jewish voters will truly have anything to say about the final outcome!  As a result somewhat less than 1,300,000 Jews will have any meaningful impact in shaping the 2012 results. While election day is still six months away, in contemporary American politics, the contest is clearly understood to rest with a specific set of undecided voters in a select number of states.

Currently, only nine states are classified as “toss-up” contests for this year’s election; everything else, at least at the moment, is resolved, with Democrats assured of victory in states with 182 electoral votes and leading in three other states with a total of 35 electoral delegates. Republicans currently hold a solid 159 electoral slots with an additional 47 electoral votes “leaning Republican” in four contest states. By way of a reminder, a candidate for President must receive 270 electoral votes.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

State:	Jewish Pop.	Perc. of Pop.	Electoral Count
Florida	638, 635	3.4%	29
Penna.	294,925	2.3%	20
Ohio	148,380	1.3%	18
Virginia	97,290	1.2%	13
Colorado	91,070	1.8%	9
Nevada	74,400	2.8%	6
Wisconsin	28,255	.5%	10
New Hamp.	10,020	.8%	4
Iowa	6,240	.2%	6

It is conceivable that these 109 Electoral Votes will determine this fall’s Presidential contest. In light of how close many pollsters are projecting the results for this election campaign, the small yet significant Jewish voter base, especially in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylannia, and Ohio, with a combined 67 electoral votes, could be of particular importance.

The focus given to these in-play voters will be significant and may well define each campaign’s “Jewish” strategy. Particular attention ought to be given to how the SuperPacs along with the Republican Jewish Coalition and the National Jewish Democratic Council will seek to engage these target populations.

As we move through the final primaries and into the convention process, one might expect to see a continued high-energy effort to cultivate these voters.

---

This is one of a number of 2012 election commentaries offered by Steven Windmueller, Ph.D., who is the Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor at Hebrew Union College-Jewish Institute of Religion, Los Angeles campus. See his website for a full posting of his writings, www.thewindreport.com

0 Comments — Leave your comment

Share this post: del.icio.us Digg Facebook Google Reddit StumbleUpon Technorati YahooMyWeb

May 9, 2012 | 9:41 am

Are Younger Jews Paying Their Dues? The Changing Landscape of Jewish Politics

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Younger voters (those between the ages of 18-30) will be a target audience for both political parties this fall.

With the economic picture being bleak around job creation, higher gas prices, and the student loan debate, many younger voters may well be searching for political answers that meet their specific needs and concerns.

A recently released Harvard study noted that the President had a significant advantage over John McCain in appealing to this voting sector in 2008. That may not be the case however in 2012, as support for the President within this age cohort has dissipated.

For younger Jewish voters the economic crunch will most certainly be a factor in their political thinking. Yet, as we have come to appreciate some of these voters have specific single issue concerns within the public policy arena. Among the priorities of Gen X’ers and Y’ers are the environment, human rights (Darfur), economic justice, education and foreign affairs.

Unlike their parents’ or grandparents’ generation, younger Jewish voters seem not to hold the same level of party loyalty. This may have some significant implications over time with regard to the traditional ties that Jews have had with the Democratic Party.  Similarly, there is some evidence that younger Jews are not registering and voting with the same intensity as their folks.

Historically, nearly 90% of eligible Jewish voters were engaged with the election process; this high percentage rate of participation appears to be declining. Yet, among ethnic and religious voting blocs, Jews still retain the highest levels of political engagement.

Several sub-groupings of younger Jewish voters seem to be in play in this election cycle. In addition to the single-issue constituencies, one finds an emerging entrepreneurial class of voters who are highly focused on business opportunities and financial investment options, concerned about the constraints of government regulatory policies that might impede access and growth.

A new sub-set involves radicalized voters who can identified on both ends of the political discourse, the tea party conservatives on the one side and the “Occupied Wall Street” crowd on the other.

This data surrounding these generational social and demographic changes corresponds to the larger redistribution of voting patterns now seen across the political spectrum.

0 Comments — Leave your comment

April 9, 2012 | 10:12 am

New Study Affirms Jewish Liberal Commitments

Posted by Steven Windmueller

A survey entitled, Chosen for What? Jewish Values in 2012 was released this week (April 3rd) by the Washington-based Public Religion Research Institute.  The results suggest that “a majority of American Jews are welcoming of immigrants, favorably disposed towards American Muslims, support legalizing same-sex marriage, favor legal abortions and oppose overturning the recent health care law.”

The economy represented the main issue for Jewish registered voters during this election year (51 percent), with all other issues trailing well behind. Fifteen percent cited the growing gap between rich and poor, 10 percent cited health care, 7 percent the federal deficit and only 4 percent listed Israel.  As could be imagined, the significantly lower ranking for Israel evoked some interesting commentaries from Jewish leaders across the political spectrum.

“Among the surprising findings was that fully 87 percent of Jews said the Holocaust was somewhat or very important in informing their political beliefs and activities… Some 85 percent said they were influenced also by the opportunities for economic success in America, 70 percent cited the immigrant experience and 66 percent cited the fact they are a religious minority here.”

An equal number (36%) of those surveyed expressed satisfaction with President Obama as those who indicated their dissatisfaction with the current administration; yet only 3% of all participants in the study indicated any excitement for this President.

Some 61 percent said they have very a favorable or mostly favorable view of President Barack Obama and 62 percent said they would like to see him re-elected — more than twice the number who support a Republican candidate (30 percent). Among those who indicated their intention to vote Republican, 58 percent endorsed Romney compared to 15 percent for Rick Santorum.

A total of 1,004 self-identified Jews age 18 and older participated in this online survey between Feb. 23 and March 5, with a sampling error of 5 percent. According to its authors and sponsors, this was the first major study of its size, comprehensiveness and scope conducted by a non-Jewish group.

The survey findings also reflected another characteristic found in the general American population — younger Americans are “likely to be less religiously affiliated.”

For a complete analysis of this study, see:

Social Justice Still Drives Jewish Agenda, Survey Notes | The Jewish Week

---

This is one of more than a dozen blogs focusing on the 2012 elections prepared by Steven Windmueller, Ph.D. (a faculty member of Hebrew Union College, Los Angeles campus)  and now available both through the Jewish Journal and the Wind Report, www.thewindreport.com

0 Comments — Leave your comment

March 18, 2012 | 6:07 pm

Fewer in the Pews: Implications for American Liberalism

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Two leading political scientists, Robert Putnam and David Campbell, have recently released their findings related to the connection between religious affiliation and voting patterns. Their study released this month in Foreign Affairs magazine suggests that “church attendance has become the main dividing line between Republicans and Democratic voters.”

In their article, “God and Caesar in America” they conclude that “politically moderate and progressive Americans have a general allergy to the mingling of religion and party politics.”  Tracking voters between 2006 and 2011, these researchers found that Democrats were much more likely not to be involved with churches or synagogues than were Republicans. Liberal voters, they suggest, hold the following viewpoint: “‘Well, if religion is just about conservative politics, than I’m otta here.’”

Correspondingly, younger voters (the millennials) are moving away from religion in strikingly high numbers. If nearly 20% of the affiliated-church (synagogue) attendees were leaving America’s pews between 2006-2011, that number appears to be five times higher among those under 30 years of age.

Over the history of this nation one of the key centers for political organizing and social activism were our religious institutions, both liberal and conservative. Today, liberal denominations face serious challenges in reaching constituencies that at one time where a part of their membership base. This also has a profound impact on Democratic Party grass roots organizing as there maybe fewer points of connection available.

While the study primarily focuses on denominational groups within Christianity, comparative data on synagogue affiliation patterns exists within the Jewish community. Indeed, multiple factors are contributing to the decline of membership within America’s synagogues but the political element must not be excluded from this scenario.  If the same imagine does exist within Jewish life, namely that much of American Judaism is seen as the bastion for conservative political values and beliefs than such data will have a striking impact on recruiting and engaging younger Jews to feel at home within the walls of our synagogues.

Clearly, many younger Jews already hold an array of negative views regarding many of our established organizations. In part, such ideas have sparked the emergence of a counterculture of Jewish activism and organizing, often occurring outside the framework of the mainstream institutions.

The alignment of an individual’s religious values with their political passions has been one of the entry points for engaging young people over time to join synagogues and to participate in communal institutions.  The Jewish community has a great deal at stake if we lose this opportunity to embrace the next generation, both religiously and politically.

Steven F. Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor
HUC-JIR
Los Angeles Campus
213-765-2190
www.thewindreport.com

0 Comments — Leave your comment

February 15, 2012 | 12:07 pm

Pew on Jews: New Data Rekindles the Debate over the Jewish Vote

Posted by Steven Windmueller

The recently released Pew Study on “Trends in Party Identification by Religion” (February 2nd, 2012) has reopened the debate over the “Jewish vote”. The study found that Jews who support or lean Republican jumped from 20% in 2008 to 29% in 2011. And Jews who support or lean Democratic fell from 72% in 2008 to 65% in 2011.

In 2008, 72% of Jews identified themselves as Democrats or said they leaned toward the Democratic Party, and Democrats held a 52-point advantage among this group. In 2011, the Democratic advantage among Jews has shrunk to 36 points. The 2011 poll has a 6.5% margin of error. Some 330 Jews were part of the sample in this study. The report’s broader findings suggest support for the Republican Party has increased among all major religious groups.

These changes may have some significance in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the Jewish vote is seen as crucial to both political parties, but the broader question has once again stimulated a conversation over Jewish voting patterns. As a result of this report there is a renewed discussion about the “changing Jewish vote”.  Indeed, there are indicators not only based on this survey but other data of some political movement among those Jews most likely to vote.

Recent studies reflect a move among some Jewish voters, mainly younger participants, in identifying as “independents” rather than necessarily becoming Republicans.

In more general terms, “The analysis shows that across several religious groups, the move toward the GOP has been at least as large – if not more pronounced – among those under age 30 as among those 30 and older. White evangelicals under 30, for instance, are now more heavily Republican than those over 30 (82% vs. 69%).”

 

With Super Tuesday looming before us, we may see more trends that will give greater definition to the changes that may be occurring among Jewish voters.

One of the defining features of voting patterns involves the principle that voters tend to move very slowly in altering their allegiances to particular political parties or their political values. Are we at the beginning of a significant political transition? Only time will provide us with such insights.

Steven Windmueller

2 Comments — Leave your comment

January 30, 2012 | 11:26 pm

Politics and Money: High Stakes Jewish Engagement

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Steven Windmueller, Ph.D.

Follow the money!  One of the keys to studying a political campaign is to identify the “flow” of financial support for a candidate. Then, why is it that so much Jewish money remains on the sidelines for the 2012 Presidential Election?  In 2008 candidates in both parties were receiving significantly more Jewish financial attention at this stage in the campaign, so what accounts for this different storyline?  Tablet in a recent article reported that 55% of the key Republican Jewish donors had yet to make a political contribution, in comparison to 2008 where nearly 2/3rds of these players had committed their resources.

First of all, significant Jewish donor support is actually ‘in play” as singularly represented by Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, whose combined support for the Gingrich campaign involves to date, $10 million. Their donations, along with a number of other major players, is no longer directed to the candidate’s campaign but rather to the super PAC’s that have been established by each candidate. In the case of Speaker Gingrich, “Winning our Future” PAC was the beneficiary of these major dollars.

Second, major donors know that there are strategic times when to “invest” in one’s preferred candidate. “Early money” suggests that the donor wants the individual to know of his interest in and support of the candidate’s desire to test the field. “Late money” is designed to ensure that a candidate has the resources to finish, and hopefully win! Donors may not welcome significant public recognition associated with their support but clearly want the nominee to know that they are “invested” in his/her success and have demonstrated usually on various different occasions during the campaign cycle the nature of their commitment.

Third, some funders simply want the field to “shake out” before investing their resources. In some measure they want to see and hear more from the remaining candidates. While others hold back resources until their party’s frontrunner or nominee has been identified. Certain funders may be disappointed in their party’s selection or in policies being promoted by an incumbent and therefore delay their financial endorsement as a statement of their concern or even as a form of protest.

Fourth, PAC monies have been another venue by which Jewish groups, who share particular political interests around Israel, foreign policy and domestic concerns direct their collective support behind candidates who endorse their viewpoints. Federal multi-candidate PACs are limited in the amount of money they can contribute to candidate campaigns or other organizations:

• at most $5,000 per candidate per election. Elections such as primaries, general elections and special elections are counted separately.
• at most $15,000 per political party per year

An example of this type of campaign activity involves NORPAC, a non-partisan political action committee. This group is supports candidates and members of Congress, who “demonstrate a genuine commitment to the strength, security, and survival of Israel”.

How important is Jewish financial support for political campaigns? While it is difficult to quantify the sources of all contributions, there is significant evidence that Jews play a major role in underwriting candidates and supporting both political parties. Historically, this has been the case with Democrats where Jews over time have played a defining role. In more recent times, this pattern of high-end political fundraising among Jewish Republicans has clearly accelerated.

---

Steven F. Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor
HUC-JIR
Los Angeles Campus
www.thewindreport.com

0 Comments — Leave your comment

January 23, 2012 | 4:04 pm

The Changing Status of Jewish Elected Officials in Washington: Unpacking its Significance

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Steven Windmueller, Ph.D.

Yesterday’s announcement by Representative Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz. 8th District) that she intends to step down from her Congressional seat, is part of an emerging story involving a number of the current Jewish members of the House and Senate, who are leaving government service or changing positions.

The make-up of this current Congress includes some 40 Jewish members of the House and Senate. However, this year will mark the largest drop off in Jewish representation in more than a half a century.

House of Representatives:

1. Departure of Representative Jane Harmon (Ca. 36th District) in order to serve as President and CEO of the Woodrow Wilson Center
2. Resignation of Congressman Anthony Wiener (NY, 9th District)
3. Decision of Representative Robert Filner (Ca. 51st District) to run for Mayor of San Diego
4. Retirement of Congressman Barney Frank (Mass. 4th District) at the end of this current session
5. Decision of Congresswoman Shelly Berkley (Nev. 1st District ) to step down in order to run for the Senate

In what will be one of the costliest House elections in history, two prominent members of the 112th Congress, Representative Howard Berman (Ca. 28th District ) and Brad Sherman (Ca. 27th District) will be competing for the Democratic nomination in the newly created 30th Congressional District in the San Fernando Valley.

Of some historical significance, Representative Eric Cantor (Va.7th District), the only Jewish Republican currently in the House of Representatives, is the first Jewish official ever elected to serve as the House Majority Leader.

Senate:

When the 112th Congress concludes later this year, it will be marked by the retirement of two Senators Joseph Lieberman (Con. Ind.) and Herb Kohl (Dem. Wis).

In addition, several Jewish Senators facing re-election this fall are likely to encounter significant challenges. Benjamin Cardin (Maryland, Dem) and Bernie Sanders (Vermont, Ind.) appear to have major campaign battles ahead, while Diane Feinstein (Ca. Dem) may face a less formidable challenge in seeking to retain her seat. There is also the possibility of several Jewish challengers emerging in Senate races this fall. In addition to the candidacy of Congresswoman Berkley, Ohio State Treasurer, Josh Mandel, may enter the Ohio Senate contest.

During this current session of the Congress there are 12 seating Jewish United States Senators:

In addition to Cardin, Feinstein, Kohl, Lieberman, and Sanders, Jewish members include:

1. Richard Blumenthal (Con. Dem)
2. Barbara Boxer (Ca. Dem)
3. Al Franken (MN. Dem)
4. Carl Levin (MI. Dem)
5. Charles Schumer (NY Dem)
6. Frank Lautenberg (NJ. Dem)
7. Ron Wyden (Ore. Dem)

Commentary:
Are we likely to see a diminution of Jewish influence as we move forward, or will there be the emergence of a new generation of Jewish activists who will seek to make their presence felt on the national political stage?

Steven F. Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor
HUC-JIR
Los Angeles Campus
213-765-2190
www.thewindreport.com

0 Comments — Leave your comment

January 19, 2012 | 5:06 pm

What Motivates Jewish Voters?

Posted by Steven Windmueller

Steven Windmueller, Ph.D.

Jews are like other American voters, but more so!  Sociologists have suggested that this fascination and engagement with politics has come to represent the “civil religion” of American Judaism. More than 80% of Jews who are eligible to vote actively exercise this democratic privilege!

As with every American voter, different issues are seen as important to individual Jewish voters.Yet, based on the data from an array of surveys, there are a set of priorities that define for many Jews their core interests and shared concerns. In selecting candidates for the presidency and other federal positions, Jews frequently reference these ten elements (Clearly, no one can speak for a community or even for an individual voter, but this compilation is drawn from an array of studies that have examined Jewish political attitudes):

1. A statement of support by candidates committing the United States to ensure Israel’s security and its territorial integrity.  Specific actions that reflect United States engagement with Israel through diplomatic, economic and military measures.
2. A commitment to this nation’s security by ensuring the maintenance of a strong military designed to enhance homeland security and combat international terrorism while being able to challenge the enemies of the United States and Israel.
3. A particular plan designed to isolate Iran, while preventing the regime in Tehran from developing or acquiring nuclear arms.
4. Where appropriate, engagement with other countries to seek multi-lateral, alliance-based actions to advance our collective interests. To embrace international organizations when and where they can be effective in combating terrorism and in advancing social change and democratic values.
5. Focus on a fiscal plan and tax policy that promotes sustainable economic growth while reducing government spending.
6. The framing of a domestic policy that ensures core health care and social services are available to citizens.
7. A commitment to equal rights and access for all citizens and the support of programs that promote economic opportunity.
8. Maintaining an overarching policy of church-state separation but nonetheless open to specific programs that bring together religious institutions and the public sector in meeting core social service needs.
9. Support for a woman’s right of choice by upholding Roe v. Wade.
10. Leadership and management experience as demonstrated by a candidate’s ability to bring different political factions together and the capacity to manage complex issues.

In addition, acknowledging that individuals have particular interests or priorities, some of the most pressing issues for Jewish voters include:

• Environment
• Energy
• Immigration Reform
• Darfur and Sub-Saharan Africa
• Social Security/Medicare
• Arts and Culture
• Education
• Gay Rights

(Again, these findings are taken from a number of studies and interviews concerning Jewish voting priorities.)  In the American Jewish Committee annual surveys of Jewish leaders, those who participated where asked to identify their political orientation:

1. Extremely Liberal	6
2. Liberal	22
3. Slightly Liberal	14
4. Middle of the Road	28
5. Slightly Conservative	12
6. Conservative	13
7. Extremely Conservative	3
8. Not Sure	2

From these studies and others that have been conducted over time, one can identify over time the configuration of the “Jewish vote” as consisting of primarily a moderate-liberal base of voters (64%).  Yet, as we have noted in earlier blogs and other writings, Jewish voters can be found in all sectors of the political spectrum.

Your comments and insights pertaining to this election series are encouraged.

---

Steven Windmueller, Ph.D.
Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor of Jewish Communal Service
HUC-JIR
Los Angeles campus
swindmueller@huc.edu
See: www.thewindreport.com

0 Comments — Leave your comment