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September 18, 2008 | 11:25 am
Posted by Brad A. Greenberg
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A Siena poll found some quite surprising results when it surveyed 626 likely voters this month and asked if they planned to vote for John McCain or Barack Obama:
McCain leads Obama ... wait for it ... by 22 percentage points—54 to 32.
After the jump, J-Pod can’t contain his excitement:
Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33. (UPDATE: I got this wrong; this stat could also mean they’re tied or that McCain is more than 40 points ahead or anywhere in the middle. For a clarification on this point, click here.)
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
It would appear that Obama’s Jewish problem has returned, despite the best efforts of 300 rabbis. But two words lead me to believe this poll was, in fact, an anomaly: Sarah Palin. Since she joined the McCain campaign, undecided Jews seem to have been scared to the Democrats.
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I don’t buy this poll for one second (I only wish it were true), nor do I believe that Palin has “scared” many (if any) Jews over to Obama (and I don’t think your prior post really makes that case). These polls are the equivalent of magazine top ten lists—good for gab, but not much substance. That’s my feel on it, take or leave, etc…
I know you’re right about both points. I was doing my own wishful thinking for the Palin scare factor, though, based on many conversations I’ve had, I believe it could be true. Nice analogy.
why the obsession with sarah palin? it seems like half your posts are about her now, what gives? Then you throw your weight against Palin in this post…seems odd and very biased of you.
Well, this post wasn’t about Palin, but mentioning her was important.
She’s become a common subject here because she’s become the focal point of the presidential campaign and, frankly, she’s full of fodder. (I’ve also probably gotten a bit lazy.)
No question I am biased against Palin. She scares me.
A good recent post not about Sarah Palin that is in need of some comments was the Church of England’s apology to Darwin.
With the caveat that Jews and any given Jew is subject to the various human failings, Jews and especially New York Jews are the most informed and involved and influential citizens and voters of any identifiable ethnic group. If Jews and New York Jews favor the rather unconventional Republican offering, just maybe they have the right take on awareness of the serious weakness and problems of the Democratic offering and blowing off the full-court media and entertainment world press for them.
Just so we will not have just the Jews to kick around, looky here;
Palin conquers the Internet By Jimmy Orr | 09.17.08
http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2008/09/17/palin-conquers-the-internet/
Summarized:
In just eight days exposure during a four-week reporting period for Hitwise, Sarah Palin was number one political search term
Obama #2
McCain #5
Biden in the below top ten toilet.
Palin’s Wikipedia page most read in August and edited 6,500 times.
Facebook page 214,000 for Palin, 52,000 for Biden
2 million for Obama but beginning when???
130,000 Palin videos on Youtube
The real test, eBay sales of Palin stuff (?) up 354%
Biden stuff down 11%, even throwing in a free kidney with every purchase.
I just followed your link to Commentary. From a comment (J.J. Sefton) on the article - “... being Jewish and voting Democrat is akin to walking into the gas chamber and believing that water is going to come out of the phony spigot”.
“...especially New York Jews are the most informed and involved”
Informed? Ridiculous. It’s always the ignorant that feel the need to over-compensate by constant claims of superiority. To the extent that the above drivel is a manifestation of Rifkah’s obsession with promoting her cloistered, shtetl-like, bridge & tunnel pronvincialism as an enlightened state of being, her inane solipsisms are in place. Yeah. Ex-convict, overly-pious, right-wing New York Yid pseudo-intellects know whats good for the rest of us. Please, nitwit.
As far as being “involved” is concerned, only if and when the interests of the shtetl coincide with the interests of some greed-driven corporate-beholden republican. Since you vote as a bloc and not as individuals, the motives for said “involvement” are necessarily suspect. “Involvement” with the democrats is conditional upon the candidate having been co-opted by the Jewish community prior to the election. Whatever the reason, cultural affinity or common cause with other Americans are not it.
As a port city, New York is about the oldest and largest Jewish community in the US. It is mildly amusing to me to hear Yiddishisms in the speech and music in New York as executed by all kinds of non-Jewish types. Jewish influence in New York is famously out of proportion to their numbers but by sweat equity and merit. And they are overwhelmingly Democrat. They have supported every Democratic Doofus since Roosevelt even against their own community interests, and they don’t seem to support Obama. I wonder why? Let’s see.. the New York Jews all changed somehow… nah… maybe this Democratic candidate is just so transparently unacceptable?
Facts are facts. You can fiddle with the numbers all you want but something is definitely going on.
Maybe the Jews support Palin because she feels their pain
Date: Monday, Sept. 22, 2008
Time: 11:45 a.m.
Location: Dag Hammarskjold Plaza (across from the United Nations)
Confirmed speaker: Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Sponsoring organizations: National Coalition to Stop Iran Now, Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, The Israel Project, Jewish Council for Public Affairs, Jewish Community Relations Council (JCRC) of New York , United Jewish Communities, UJA-Federation of New York
Where will Zionist Joe Biden be on Monday? Taking tea with Mrs. Ahmadinejad?
Okay. Time to parse the horsesh*t.
“As a port city, New York is about the oldest and largest Jewish community in the US. It is mildly amusing to me to hear Yiddishisms in the speech and music in New York as executed by all kinds of non-Jewish types.”
Just because some gentile eats a bagel and calls you a shmuck doesn’t indicate a cultural affinity. What it indicates is that he likes bagels and happens to be an astute judge of character.
“...Jewish influence in New York is famously out of proportion to their numbers but by sweat equity and merit.”
Possibly. But once again you exhibit an obsessive need to share in the credit for things that shtetl parasites such as yourself had absolutely nothing to do with. While middle-class conservative and reform Jews like my father and grandfather “sweated” and served their country in both world wars, Rifkahs antecedents were busy draft dodging and extorting money from these communities. Boy, somethings never change, eh?
“...And they are overwhelmingly Democrat. They have supported every Democratic Doofus since Roosevelt even against their own community interests, and they don’t seem to support Obama. I wonder why?”
Now everyone knows that there is a world of difference between a Jewish Democrat in San Francisco and a Jewish Democrat in NY. The Jew in San Francisco if queried as to why he’s a democrat, will probably mumble something about tolerance and equality for all. A Jewish Democrat in NYC these days is usually one by default and his elected official reflects it. That is to say he’s been paid. His party affiliation is meaningless and his rhetoric would be closer to a conservative republican that that of an actual Democrat. No one illustrates that better than that Kahanist sh*tbag, Hilkind, BTW, I noticed of late that Hilkind has started to bite the hand that feeds him, by initiating all kinds of investigations into Haredi child rape. Oh well. After years of shilling for every lousy drug money launderer, Hasidic child molester, and kahanist dipsh*t(yourself included, I understand)Dov has decided to reivent himself. The new Dov! He’s Kinder! He’s Gentler! and is smart enough to camouflage his racism until after election day.
“the New York Jews all changed somehow… nah…”
No. The smart ones moved away. What you have left are the ignorant, selfish, sub-standard reactionary dregs of a community that has seen better days.
Why should Jewish Voters fear Obama?
Read about at:
http://www.desertconservative.com/2008/09/18/why-jewish-voters-should-fear-obama/
It is a shame that you had to spend all that time in a doomed effort to refute my mild, factual comments, considering that everything you know is wrong.
I am not saying that Jewish influence on New York culture indicates cultural affinity, although there is a surprising amount of that too. Cultural diffusion and blending is just inevitable, like Bosco in milk. You can hear a little klezmer in old New York jazz and Yiddish in the dialects.
The World Wars were before my time but plenty of guys in every Orthodox shul I ever attended served and died in the wars, and usually have stories to tell about punching out antisemites in the service. I am sure that is true in Conservative and Reform shuls too, but Jewish values generally trickle down from the Orthodox sources to its diluted breakaway movements.
New York Democrats are also the source, as the European Jewish socialist veterans of discrimination and oppression formed the trade union movements. In fact you have gotten it backwards again in your usual inimitable fashion. A New York Republican is a Democrat anywhere else, not the reverse. A possible factor in the unfortunate campaign by my man Giuliani.
Incidentally, Dov Hikind deserves kudos for his efforts to bring justice against child molesters. Just as the incidence of such molestation among Jews is the lowest of any social grouping, so will the Jewish response to it lead the way for all others. I wish him success. If there was a real JDL movement anymore today a prime mission for them would be to administer some street justice to the perpetrators.
“...It is a shame that you had to spend all that time in a doomed effort to refute my mild, factual comments, considering that everything you know is wrong.”
There was no effort involved, as refutation was in this case, superfluous. Your comments as usual, are the products of your solipsisistic anecdotal half-assed observations. As such their “wrongness” is an empirical fact, plain for all to see. I just like illustrations.
The only shame here is the lack of conviction of those cowards who would cynically camouflage their racism behind a miasma of bullshit and sophistry.
“...The World Wars were before my time but plenty of guys in every Orthodox shul I ever attended served and died in the wars, and usually have stories to tell about punching out antisemites in the service.”
Well Jail-Bait, at least they were self-actualized men. Not wanna-be Jewish Super-Heros threatening Russian Ballerinas, eh Victor? No, Victor is one of those pasty-faced yids who talks up a storm but lets other bleed for him. Ain’t that right sweetheart?
“...I am sure that is true in Conservative and Reform shuls too, but Jewish values generally trickle down from the Orthodox sources to its diluted breakaway movements.”
There is no “Orthodox” source for Jewish values. The Tanach is the source. You’re interpretation is a contrived political-construct. In as much as you and the rest of those shtetl flea-bags would like to perpetuate that myth, the essence of the Conservative and Reform movements is a rejection of that interpretation.
“..A New York Republican is a Democrat anywhere else, not the reverse. A possible factor in the unfortunate campaign by my man Giuliani.”
What does that have to with the fact that party affiliation for New York Democrats is meaningless since the ideology that they esposuse is one of an intolerant and exclusionary nature? I got news for you Mikveh-Girl, Rudy didn’t lose because he wasn’t enough of a Republican. He didn’t lose because he was too much of a Democrat. He lost because he has all the political instincts of a door knob, Period.
“...If there was a real JDL movement anymore today a prime mission for them would be to administer some street justice to the perpetrators.”
Between petty crime, extortion, strong-arming for the Columbo Family and screwing shiksas in after-hours clubs, I don’t know where Kahane and Co. would’ve found the time. In any event such actions on the part of these half-wits and miscreants would have been analagous to the foxes guarding the hen house.
I am sure that is true in Conservative and Reform shuls too, but Jewish values generally trickle down from the Orthodox sources to its diluted breakaway movements.
Whoops, looks like you missed another reality show putting that one together. Oh well, tomorrow’s another day.
“...Whoops, looks like you missed another reality show putting that one together. Oh well, tomorrow’s another day.”
Thats it? Thats you’re snappy retort? Better leave the sarcasm and witticisms to the professionals, nitwit. Remember kids, don’t try this at home.
Not trying to be snappy. I have just learned that once I have completely demolished their illusions on factual and logical bases, it is counterproductive to fully engage in the head games of people with obsessive compulsive disorder. All that is left is to try to gently nudge them in the direction of reality. Out of compassion. I can’t say there is hope for you, but I am occasionally willing to pretend.
“...I have just learned that once I have completely demolished their illusions on factual and logical bases”
OCD, eh? I’m not the one who feels the need to claim victory after every exchange. Only insecure basket-cases feel the need to fish for validation every 10 seconds.
“...it is counterproductive to fully engage in the head games of people”
Yeah. Especially when you’re not good at it.
I am willing to let the exchanges speak for themselves, the first time. I can’t always get into the reruns.
“...I am willing to let the exchanges speak for themselves”
So am I. So I have to thank you for your misplaced hubris. It’s one of your more attractive qualities.
Found out just in time that organizers of that anti-Iran rally were threatened by New York Democrats with IRS action against their tax-exempt status if they allowed Palin to speak. They let the story out that she was uninvited making it look like no one wanted her.
All a lie just like all the other lies..
“...Found out just in time that organizers of that anti-Iran rally were threatened by New York Democrats with IRS action against their tax-exempt status if they allowed Palin to speak”
Just in time for what? A frontal lobotomy? They were right to do it. Dirty politics? Maybe. But it was the samrt thing to do. It was legal and they tore it right out of Hikind’s Kahanist playbook. Pissing and moaning about it is not gonna help. Can’t stand the heat? Well get ready for more of the same.
There is actually more to it than that. I am surprised that Brad has not picked this up as a major topic.
I don’t know which was the chicken or the egg, but Clinton was forbidden to attend (Obama denies this, hardiharhar), and the perverts at J Street are crowing about its collection of 20,000 signatures in a petition drive to call the lone appearance ‘partisan’ to pressure Malcolm Hoenlein into canceling this, plus legal pressure on the tax exempt status of the sponsoring organizations. Real heros.
Here is Hoenlein talking about it. He is usually very smooth and assured. I have never heard him sound so whipped and so vague. He has lost many points on my Respect-O-Meter.
Here is the speech Palin would have given at the rally
An appearance by Sarah Palin is worth more this minute than 10000 chanting flag wavers. A speech by Palin is worth more than press releases by 50 Media Directors. When I heard about this I was moved (after Shabbat, natch) to write to the Conference, the JCRC, the NJDC, the RJC and the McCain campaign as follows:
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Sarah Palin Disinvite
To the fatcat cowardly morons who made the ‘brilliant’ decision to disinvite Sarah Palin from Monday’s rally at the United Nations,
How many opportunities are the Jewish communities going to have to be joined by a decent well-intentioned national figure with common sense who will most probably have great influence in the near future and might eventually become a US President?
Why don’t you pay your PR people another half million dollars to figure it out?
Get a clue: You just reduced the effectiveness of this rally from national stature with vast reportage and an opportunity for major policy statements to dismissal to embarrassing nothingness. Who exactly the hell do you think is interested in listening to your organizations’ flacks bleat out their fears and toothless ‘demands’ on the world’s conscience. THE WORLD HAS NO CONSCIENCE. ONLY GOOD PEOPLE LIKE SARAH PALIN HAVE A CONSCIENCE. SHE IS A GIFT FROM GOD, IDIOTS. ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS GET THE HELL OUT OF GOD’S WAY.
As Sidney Zion said, it took two thousand years to finally produce stupid Jews. You make me sick and unfortunately you will probably damage the Jewish future before you are dumped.
Ben Plonie
A former Monday attendee
P.S. As a concerned private Jewish citizen speaking for the entire Jewish nation, I hereby apologize to Sarah Palin and John McCain and urge them to bypass the idiotic figureheads of the Conference of Presidents of Jewish Organizations for any future meaningful input and find out who really speaks for the grassroots and the Jewish interest (probably people who make less than a zillion dollars a year in non-profits).
Jewish voters should fear Obama’s natural instincts.
Obama has a natural instinct that sometimes gets him into trouble. For example, the “bitter” remark originated from Obama’s natural instinct. He has for years and years drank coffee and wine with fellow liberal thinkers and I am sure that they have ingrained into his brain that philosophic view that some voters, especially non-liberal voters, are dumb and ill-informed. So he made the “bitter” remark from his sub-conscious without thinking about it. When Obama does not have a teleprompter in his face then he seems to stutter in his speech with many pauses. He is fighting his natural instinct and trying to generate a political statement instead of his natural response statement.
For years, Obama has hanged around anti-Israel ranting haters. His spiritual mentor obviously has a low regard for the state of Israel. Also, obviously Obama has heard anti-Israel remarks often from that spiritual mentor. Obama’s church has Hamas anti-Israel material in the church lobby. There is picture of Obama and his wife sitting with extreme anti-Israel Professor Said at Said’s keynote speech. There is a poll that says over 70% of blacks are either anti-Semitic or somewhat anti-Semitic. I am sure many people have heard from their black friends the unpleasant words that they speak about Israel. One should assume that Obama’s natural instinct is to have a dim view of Israel, too.
(Poll about anti-Semitic views in USA http://www.adl.org/anti_semitism/2002/as_survey.pdf)
An example of this natural instinct is his speech at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) 2008 Policy Conference where he says, “The Palestinians need a state that is contiguous and cohesive, and that allows them to prosper.” I hope he did not mean that for how can a Palestine state be contiguous without making Israel non-contiguous. Could this be something that he has heard in his years of anti-Israel indoctrination? Did his natural instinct trigger him to make this mistake?
Another example is that he put down the Likud Party. Why would he offend potential Jewish voters in the USA by that remark? Again, I believe that is coming from his natural instinct that comes from years of hearing anti-Israel rants.
I understand why Jewish voters traditionally vote for Democrats. The Jewish religions tend to believe in that the community is supposed to take care of the community. Unfortunately, many Jewish people might think the government instead of private entities, like churches, should do that work. Therefore, they tend to vote for Democrats.
Also for survival reasons, I understand why Jewish voters need to have a leadership role in the Democratic Party. With a large portion of the black Democrats not giving full support to Israel must be troubling to Jewish voters. They need to keep the Jewish leadership in the Democratic Party strong to counteract that strong anti-Israel tendency in the Democratic Party’s rank and file.
Yes, the Jewish voter still needs to have a significant role in the Democratic Party but this year the Jewish voter should at least ponder Obama’s anti-Israel roots and his natural instincts. What will be his natural instinct when is confronted with an Israeli request to bomb Iranian nuclear sites? Is that a risk worth taking as a Jewish voter?
MEDIA BIAS ROBS AMERICANS OF THE TRUTH
The media’s continual bias in favor of Obama is not only disgusing, it’s against everything that America, a Free Press, and Freedom of Speech stands for. To suggest that there is no media bias in favor of Obama not only robs Americans of the truth, it insults the intelligence of the American people.
TALK IS CHEAP … CHECK OBAMA’S RECORD !!!
A candidate’s track record, and associations are always a legitimate issue when running for President. Let’s take a look at the qualifications, judgement, and experience of Obama, who is running for President. Obama had 25 years to fulfill the potential he displayed as a rising start at Harvard Law School … and, how did he live up to that potential? … He chose to align himself with anti-American racist, Jeremiah Wright for TWENTY YEARS … along with Ferrahkan, Rezko, Ayers, and others. As a community organizer, he registered thousands of voters in Chicago … then, when he ran for the state legislature, he took away their votes, by disqualifying his opponent (a black woman) on a technicality. As a U.S. Senator, he voted present 160 times … he never called a meeting on the Afghanistan committee he chaired (although he NOW says we must shift all our military from Iraq to Afghanistan). He claimed Foreign Policy experience from a 9 day whirlwind photo op to 6 countries. And, he spent almost half of his tenure neglecting his responsibilities as a U.S. Senator, so he could run for President. Senator McCain served America honorably for 22 years in the military. He proved his love for America, as well as his honor, integrity and character, by refusing early release as a P.O.W., even while being tortured. He served America as a ‘contributing’ U.S. Senator, working across the aisle, for 20 years. If Obama’s Twentyfive year track record shows he lacks judgement, and can’t be trusted, who cares what he says about Health Care and the Economy! What Obama never learned is Character. He simply can’t be trusted … ask Jeremiah Wright, a friend of 20 years, who Obama betrayed for personal ambition … and, you Obama supporters really think he won’t betray you If he gets elected??? If he gets elected, you Obama supporters will be facing a HUGE disillusionment !!!
Obama’s close freinds are racist, muslim extremists, liars, cheats, criminals, THE WORST NANCY PELOSI who doesn’t listen to the people, Isreal haters, American terrorists, HATERS of conservative Af. Am. or Black Americans, liars to the Jews, people who say that whites should have their ears cut off, noses cut off and the flesh torn from their bodies as Al Monur who raised money for Obama to go to Harvard.
By Obama’s tax plan, I believe Barack Obama is an Economic TERRORIST!
But all his friend don’t seem to have a problem with terrorism on the Jews, shame in them.
May McCain win!
Regarding JMfMP: I heard the Obama people are flooding the blogs, but imitating Buttheads for McCain is a little subtle.
Sarah Palin doesn’t scare me. Obama does. Palin has executive experience.Obama has never had a real job,unless you count dope dealer in high school a real job.