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Brad:
      You could have had Obama at a testimonial dinner for Samir Kuntar while wearing a brown shirt, with a kaffiyeh on his head and he still would have gotten 75% of the Jewish vote. When it came to Israel and the middle east this was no choice at all. Yet the Jews went for Obama. Which proves one thing. The average American Jew wouldn’t care if Tel Aviv went up in a mushroom cloud. Just has long as Roe v. Wade and affirmative action stayed in place. Our parents and grandparents cared. Most of us, just don’t anymore.

Comment by bill Pearlman on 11/18/08 at 10:11 pm

You are describing a classic case of there being “no there, there”.

Let’s all remind ourselves where that 78% figure came from. Of course all the usual factors contributed to an unquestioned Jewish majority, the sweep, the historicity, the naarative, the hope; the seeding of inevitability and hopelessness on the other side… not really a cold hard look at the issues and the facts.

And here we are earnestly discussing this as an established scientific fact. But the more I see that 78%, the more I disbelieve it. As near as I can tell, it came from an MSNBC exit poll, which cannot be said to upend weeks and weeks of polling around the issue, even throwing in all the anecdotes. I am not at all hearing Jewish satisfaction and confidence in this election outcome, observing the return of Malley and Brzinsky and the amount of worrisome lumps still swept under the rug. There is no end to this line of thinking, but it makes for a much more interesting story if myth has become the basis for attitudesd and outlook.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 11/18/08 at 10:45 pm

Brad, why so emotional? I found the Politico story fascinating and with plenty that was new. I like that instead of all the speculation, often empty of the empirical, Politico had data that showed it was older Jews who lowered Obama’s initial support level. That showed that Jews were like other Democrats. Also that Mellman internal polling was missed by everyone until now. That’s frustrating because on this blog, at this website, one would expect you to be as good on the subject of the Jewish vote. Guess not. It’s okay though, politics is not your thing.

Comment by Josh on 11/20/08 at 5:08 pm

Illusions die hard. When you think that Politico has real insight and it turns out that they are just part of the mob, it can be a blow. Political analysts are like stock market analysts. They have to say something. Suppose the market closes down. Ten news stations ask the analysts why it went down:
Interest rates, blah, mortgages blah, the bailout blah, the Consumer Price Index blah, an OPEC anouncement ...
They don’t know why. Stations with agendas just link something by saying ‘Today the market went down in the wake of [fill in the blank] and everybody is so relieved that it gets picked up and repeated.

Meanwhile, this 78% figure is looking to me like the Mormons baptizing dead Jews. Somebody, J Street maybe figured out that it is far easier and cheaper to gain hypothetical and past Jewish support than real and prospective Jewish support.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 11/20/08 at 10:03 pm

Emotional? Josh, how about being logical? This blog has been, in fact, “good on the subject of the Jewish vote.” This post linked back to earlier posts I’ve written about the Jewish vote, and those posts linked back to even earlier ones. Not to sound ridiculously defensive or boastful, but did you bother to read those?

Comment by Brad A. Greenberg on 11/20/08 at 10:09 pm

No he didn’t bother to read those. I also sense he did not bother to read this from The Forward:
Young Jews More Likely To Vote GOP Than Their Elders
McCain Draws Support From Orthodox and Russians

By Brett Lieberman
Thu. Oct 30, 2008

Contrary to the perception that young people are in the bag for Obama, polls indicate that younger Jewish voters are more likely than older Jews to support Republican Sen. John McCain for president. This surprising finding most recently turned up in an October 23 analysis by Gallup polls that showed growing support for Obama among all Jews, who for a long time had been cool to the Democratic nominee.

That survey, compiled from the monthly averages of Gallup’s daily tracking polls, including interviews with more than 500 Jewish registered voters each month, found that while 74% of Jews aged 55 and over were supporting Obama, only 67% of those under 35 said they’d vote for the Democratic nominee.

“It’s counter intuitive,” said Lydia Saad, Gallup’s senior editor.

But this finding does fit into other data showing that younger Jews are trending conservative politically
[etc…]

Comment by Ben Plonie on 11/22/08 at 8:06 pm

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