Jewish Journal


August 1, 2012

Poll trends: ‘Likud plus right bloc’ in decline over the draft



HAPPIER TIMES: Former coalition partners Shaul Mofaz and Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

Driving around Tel Aviv, one can see buses bearing the signs of the new ‎Kadima Party ad campaign. It’s not usual for a party to campaign when there’s ‎no election date in sight, but Kadima is indeed advertising. Its situation is so ‎bad, and its need for some gains so urgent, that waiting for an election ‎campaign would be like waiting for Kadima to slowly die. ‎

The campaign is all about the military draft, praising the leadership of ex-military ‎chief and current Kadima chair Shaul Mofaz and pounding defeatist Prime ‎Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The message is clear, if hardly credible: Mofaz is ‎the man who wants the ultra-Orthodox to share the burden of serving, while ‎Netanyahu is the one who is selling Israel out to the ultra-Orthodox parties. ‎

It is far from clear that Mofaz’ image as the failed leader of Kadima can be ‎salvaged – I think it cannot, I think he cannot be a viable candidate in the next ‎elections (a comeback is always possible later, see Rabin, Sharon et al). But ‎even though Mofaz keeps suffering, and though Kadima has barely gained from ‎its departure from the coalition, it can still hurt Netanyahu and the Likud Party ‎with ongoing reminders that yes, Netanyahu did choose his Haredi partners ‎over equal draft for all.  ‎

See also: Netanyahu Approval tracker: The PM is in the negative zone

And as the voters are constantly reminded of this, they have become ‎angry and disappointed. And when voters become disappointed, they flock to ‎other parties. The Likud is paying in the polls – and has been for a number of ‎weeks now – for siding with the Haredi parties. ‎

This drop in the polls is visibly evident in Rosner’s Domain exclusive Israel Poll ‎Trends tracker. As you can see in the updated graphs produced by our ‎statistician in residence Prof. Camil Fuchs, the political bloc of the Likud plus ‎right-wing parties is fast declining in the polls. And the left bloc is gaining – not ‎yet enough to challenge Netanyahu, but enough to make him worry. ‎

For the updated graphs, all recent polls and a more detailed analysis of Israel’s ‎political trends, click here, and make visiting our Israel Poll Trends a regular ‎habit.‎

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