Jewish Journal


May 14, 2012

Poll Trend: Elections far off, Netanyahu still strong



Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima chair Shaul Mofaz at a joint press conference in Jerusalem, May 8, 2012 (Photo: Reuters)

Our new J-Meter feature – a weekly tracking of Israel’s political poll trend, computed by Prof. Camil Fuchs – has been updated again. Four new polls were added to the mix, all carried in a week in which PM Netanyahu and his new deputy, Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz, stunned Israel’s public with the forming of a new unity government.

If you want my takes on the canceled election and the new government, you can read these posts:

Eight quick takes on Israel’s canceled election and new unity government

Can mighty Israel (and mighty Netanyahu) make peace?

But if you want to know how the Israeli public (the public, not the grumpy pundits, some of which have difficulties getting over the humbling experience of not knowing in advance) – you should first read this post: Will Israelis support the new mega-coalition? And then take a closer look at the graphs and the tables provided in the new poll trend feature.

Bottom line: Netanyahu and the Likud Party are still in a position of winning elections. A right wing coalition is possible, a centrist coalition is possible. A left wing coalition is not an option – not even with dwindling Kadima. The interesting question for the coming weeks will be: How many voters are going to abandon (or, less likely at this stage, join) Kadima because of Mofaz’ decision, and where will they be going – to sit on the fence, to support Lapid’s Yesh Atid, or to the emerging opposition alternative, the Labor Party?

Take a look at our Poll Trend, and don’t miss the many other new J-Meter features.

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