November 6, 2012
OPEN POST: The Jewish House/Senate: Losses in both, as predicted
The Jewish House Projection - our prediction for the Jewish presence in the next House.
The Jewish Senate Projection - our prediction for the Jewish presence in the next Senate.
Our prediction of 20 Jewish members of the House and 11 Jewish Senators post-Election Day seems to be holding true, for the most part. The final counts will give us a true indication of how close we really were.
David Cicilline held onto his seat despite trailing at one point during the count. It's still up in the air for Shelley Berkley of Nevada in her bid for the Senate, in a tightly run contest. Most surprising win of the night (and it wasn't that surprising) was Brad Schneider, who beat incumbent Bob Dold to steal the House seat for the toss-up IL-10. The hopes of a second Republican in the House, meanwhile, were dashed with Randy Altschuler's loss to Tim Bishop in NY-01.
Brad Schneider (IL-10) is almost there with 99% of the vote counted, unseating Bob Dold, in one of the tightest tossup races this year (and adding a new Jewish member to the House).
AP says Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) keeps her seat
With 83% of the vote counted, Bishop is leading Altschuler in NY-01. But the lead is narrow
National Jewish Democratic Council, congratulating Frankel: [She] has already proven herself to be dedicated public servant in the Florida statehouse, and we know that she will be a tireless advocate for her constituents in Florida’s 22nd District—and for the issues of concern to most Jews.
Florida 22 - the Jew vs. Jew race - is over. With 92% of the vote counted, Lois Frankel leads Adam Hasner 55%-45%
Looking at the Nevada exit polls, it looks as if Shelley Berkley will narrowly lose her Senate race. She gets the majority of the women's vote, but is losing big among men. She's winning big with younger voters, but losing with all voters older than 30.
Rabbi Shmuley Boteach was a colorful candidate for the House, but his chances were slim to begin with. He is now trailing his rival Bill Pascrell badly, and NJ-09 will remain in Democratic hands. This leaves NY-01 as the only race that can add a second Jewish Republican to the House.
Alan Grayson wins in FL-09, congratulated by the NJDC: "Grayson is an experienced public servant and businessman and an icon for so many in our party. Given his previous experience in Congress, we know that he will work tirelessly on behalf of his constituents in Florida’s 9th District and for the values shared by the vast majority in our broader Jewish community."
Reporting from Ohio: Josh Mandel is unlikely to win his Ohio Senate race. He is winning many counties, but not in the necessary margin - as his rival, Senator Brown is over-performing Obama in the state.
The National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) congratulated its Honorary Co-Chair Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) on his victory tonight.
NJDC Chair Marc R. Stanley and President and CEO David A. Harris said: "On behalf of NJDC's Board of Directors, staff and membership, we heartily congratulate Senator Ben Cardin on his strong victory tonight. Senator Cardin is a true leader on the issues that matter most to the vast majority of the Jewish community, in Maryland and nationwide, and he is a champion of our shared Democratic ideals. And we at NJDC take particular pride in Senator Cardin's victory tonight, given his role as our Honorary Co-Chair. "We look forward to continuing our close relationship with Senator Cardin during his second term in the United States Senate."
Cicilline apparently closes the gap in RI
No surprise, Cardin will take MD.
The Bing election news projects a victory for Democrat Lois Frankel in the Jew vs. Jew race of Florida 22 for the House. I interviewed the candidates and wrote about this race here. No matter who wins, this race doesn’t change our Jewish House Projection, as both candidates are Jewish.
I have not always been kind to Thompson on Jewish-related matters. But on Iran he’s the one seemingly on the right side of the debate as far as I’m concerned.
A reminder: our final projection for the number of Jews in the House was 20, our final projection for the Senate was 11. At things to watch on election night we pointed to some of the races that are worthy of attention.
Check out Shmuel Rosner's book, The Jewish Vote: Obama vs. Romney / A Jewish Voter's Guide
Rosner's Domain Jewish Party Identification - how do America's Jews vote?