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JewishJournal.com

September 6, 2012

Jewish Senate, Jewish House projections

http://www.jewishjournal.com/blog/item/jewish_senate_jewish_house_projections/

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Senate hopeful Linda Lingle of Hawaii. (Photo: Reuters)

Sorry all, the elections are  almost upon us, and our election coverage will become more ‎intense in the coming weeks. Today, what we have for you is an update on our Senate ‎Jewish Projection and our House Jewish Projection.‎

The Senate first.‎

The Nevada race remains very tight. But as The Hill reports, "while Democrats are ‎counting retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s seat in Maine as a probable gain, polls ‎show Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Sen. Scott Brown (R) with leads in Nevada and ‎Massachusetts, respectively, blunting their offensive". RCP also tilts against Shelley ‎Berkley.  But the NYT keeps it as toss-up.‎

Linda Lingle (R-HI) also trails behind, according to most polls. The race is leaning ‎Democratic. ‎

Ohio's Josh Mandel: The race is tighter, with a slight Sherrod Brown lead. In two ‎recent polls Mandel was tied with Brown, but most trackers still consider Ohio to be ‎leaning Democratic.  ‎

The bottom line is clear: With two Jewish incumbents retiring, three incumbents ‎running and likely to win, and three candidates running with low chance of winning, ‎the Senate is very likely to lose one Jewish member and quite likely to lose two. We ‎changed our projection from 12 to 11 Jewish senators.‎

Now the House.‎

The two Jewish candidates in AZ-09 are gone. ‎

NY- 01 is a toss up according to the NYT and to RCP.‎

Schneider and Dold (IL 10) is a toss-up.‎

David Cicilline (RI-01) holds "a slim lead" over Republican rival Anthony Gemma. Cicilline is ‎in trouble, and is the most likely Jewish House member to lose his seat. ‎

The overall picture for the House: We have to lower our projection from 22 to 21 ‎Jewish House members.‎

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