Jewish Journal


September 6, 2012

Jewish Senate, Jewish House projections



Senate hopeful Linda Lingle of Hawaii. (Photo: Reuters)

Sorry all, the elections are  almost upon us, and our election coverage will become more ‎intense in the coming weeks. Today, what we have for you is an update on our Senate ‎Jewish Projection and our House Jewish Projection.‎

The Senate first.‎

The Nevada race remains very tight. But as The Hill reports, "while Democrats are ‎counting retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s seat in Maine as a probable gain, polls ‎show Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Sen. Scott Brown (R) with leads in Nevada and ‎Massachusetts, respectively, blunting their offensive". RCP also tilts against Shelley ‎Berkley.  But the NYT keeps it as toss-up.‎

Linda Lingle (R-HI) also trails behind, according to most polls. The race is leaning ‎Democratic. ‎

Ohio's Josh Mandel: The race is tighter, with a slight Sherrod Brown lead. In two ‎recent polls Mandel was tied with Brown, but most trackers still consider Ohio to be ‎leaning Democratic.  ‎

The bottom line is clear: With two Jewish incumbents retiring, three incumbents ‎running and likely to win, and three candidates running with low chance of winning, ‎the Senate is very likely to lose one Jewish member and quite likely to lose two. We ‎changed our projection from 12 to 11 Jewish senators.‎

Now the House.‎

The two Jewish candidates in AZ-09 are gone. ‎

NY- 01 is a toss up according to the NYT and to RCP.‎

Schneider and Dold (IL 10) is a toss-up.‎

David Cicilline (RI-01) holds "a slim lead" over Republican rival Anthony Gemma. Cicilline is ‎in trouble, and is the most likely Jewish House member to lose his seat. ‎

The overall picture for the House: We have to lower our projection from 22 to 21 ‎Jewish House members.‎

JewishJournal.com is produced by TRIBE Media Corp., a non-profit media company whose mission is to inform, connect and enlighten community
through independent journalism. TRIBE Media produces the 150,000-reader print weekly Jewish Journal in Los Angeles – the largest Jewish print
weekly in the West – and the monthly glossy Tribe magazine (TribeJournal.com). Please support us by clicking here.

© Copyright 2016 Tribe Media Corp.
All rights reserved. JewishJournal.com is hosted by Nexcess.net
Web Design & Development by Hop Studios 0.2396 / 52