September 6, 2012
Jewish Senate, Jewish House projections
Sorry all, the elections are almost upon us, and our election coverage will become more intense in the coming weeks. Today, what we have for you is an update on our Senate Jewish Projection and our House Jewish Projection.
The Senate first.
The Nevada race remains very tight. But as The Hill reports, "while Democrats are counting retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s seat in Maine as a probable gain, polls show Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Sen. Scott Brown (R) with leads in Nevada and Massachusetts, respectively, blunting their offensive". RCP also tilts against Shelley Berkley. But the NYT keeps it as toss-up.
Linda Lingle (R-HI) also trails behind, according to most polls. The race is leaning Democratic.
The bottom line is clear: With two Jewish incumbents retiring, three incumbents running and likely to win, and three candidates running with low chance of winning, the Senate is very likely to lose one Jewish member and quite likely to lose two. We changed our projection from 12 to 11 Jewish senators.
Now the House.
The two Jewish candidates in AZ-09 are gone.
NY- 01 is a toss up according to the NYT and to RCP.
Schneider and Dold (IL 10) is a toss-up.
David Cicilline (RI-01) holds "a slim lead" over Republican rival Anthony Gemma. Cicilline is in trouble, and is the most likely Jewish House member to lose his seat.
The overall picture for the House: We have to lower our projection from 22 to 21 Jewish House members.