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August 8, 2012

House Prediction update: 22 Jewish legislators‎

http://www.jewishjournal.com/blog/item/house_prediction_update_22_jewish_legislators_20120808/

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(Photo: Reuters)

Our Jewish House Prediction page has been updated, and the number of projected ‎Jewish legislators in the House following the November 2012 election has dropped.

A couple of races are worthy of further attention. The first is Randy Altschuler’s NY-‎‎01 race – the one we decided to include in our projection only after some deliberation. ‎Smart decision. This race is one of the most interesting we’ve been following – the ‎drive to put a second Jewish Republican in the House. It is also a race about which ‎there are more questions than answers at this stage, with contradictory polls from both ‎Democratic (Tim Bishop) and Republican campaigns. Stuart Rothenberg wrote about ‎it last week:

There is one obvious way the 2012 contest differs significantly from the 2010 race, ‎but it benefits Altschuler. Bishop was the Independence Party nominee in 2010, ‎and he earned 7,370 votes on its line. But this year, Altschuler is the Independence ‎Party nominee, and that development alters the 2010 baseline vote for the two ‎candidates and changes the arithmetic of the 2012 race. Certainly a presidential ‎year electorate is different from a midterm electorate, especially a Republican ‎wave midterm electorate. But, considering the weakness of the national economy, ‎will the different electorate benefit Bishop or Altschuler? While Obama won the ‎‎1st district narrowly in 2008, he isn’t likely to do as well this year. The bottom ‎line? Obama carried the district with 51 percent four years ago. Bishop won by ‎‎593 votes last time. Altschuler locked up the GOP nomination earlier this time ‎than he did two years ago. In other words, no matter what various polls now ‎show, you don’t have to go far out on a limb to expect a close race in New York’s ‎‎1st district in November.

More updates:

  • We had to remove candidate Laura Ruderman (WA-01), following her loss in the ‎Democratic primary. Signs of Ruderman’s probable defeat came in recent polls, and ‎she came third yesterday in the Democratic primary. Thus, the number of possible ‎House additions went down to a projected +3 to +4.

  • CA-47 is still listed by Cook as “likely Democratic”. But candidate Alan Lowenthal ‎is being out-financed by Republican opponent Gary DeLong. The two will be meeting ‎on Thursday for a debate, or something of the sort. Polling is tricky: a GOP-sponsored ‎poll showed a close race, but an automated Democratic poll showed Lowenthal was ‎leading by more than ten percent.

  • Brad Schneider (IL-10) is running a close race against incumbent Robert Dold.

  • Rabbi Shmuley Boteach (NJ-09) doesn’t seem to have much chance against Bill Pascrell.

  • We’ve covered AZ-09 quite extensively in recent days and weeks. But no matter ‎what one might think about Kyrsten Sinema’s Israel policies – her fundraising is in ‎great shape, and she’s the front-runner according to various reports:

    The Democratic field is crowded with three up-and-coming stars, while the ‎universal description of the GOP field is “weak” and enthusiasm lags. Both ‎parties have much at stake in the Aug. 28 primary - and early voting begins ‎Thursday. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has ‎emerged as the frontrunner. Democrats cannot agree, however, on which other ‎candidate poses the strongest threat to her in the primary - former state party ‎Chairman Andrei Cherny or state Senate Minority Leader David Schapira.

    It means that this race, in which two Jewish candidates are running, is more than likely ‎to end up being a race with no Jewish candidate (and no, we do not mean to suggest ‎that there’s a problem with that – not at all).‎

  • A Jewish candidate will certainly emerge victorious in FL-22, as both the Republican ‎and Democratic candidates are Jewish. The race ranking of the Cook Report has ‎changed though, from “Toss Up” to “Lean Dem”, making Lois Frankel the most likely ‎new Jewish House member from this district.‎

  • David Cicilline (RI-01), however, may be in trouble. Of all the incumbent Jewish ‎House members he seems the least likely to come back next year. He is spending a lot, ‎the polls aren’t pretty, and pundits are asking why Washington Democrats “apparently ‎made no effort to push Congressman David Cicilline to retire and allow a more ‎popular candidate to run in the 1st District”.

    Our new Jewish House Projection: 20-22 legislators. For the detailed report, click here.

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