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JewishJournal.com

October 17, 2013

House Jewish Projection

http://www.jewishjournal.com/blog/item/house_jewish_projection/

Latest update: August 27, 2014

The summer is just about over, and the 2014 elections are right around the corner.

Currently we assume that 2014 is going to be another year of Jewish congressional decline. With the expected retirements and losses (including recent primary losses of Eric Cantor, Marjorie Margolis in PA, Adam Kwasman in AZ, and Jewish candidates in CA-33) we put our projection at 20 Jewish representatives. The chances of seeing a Republican House member are not great, but if  Zeldin can pull it off in New York, or Carr in California, maybe there will be someone replacing Cantor as the sole Jewish Republican representative.

 

 

Here is the updated table of Jewish candidates (remember, we only count Jewish candidates who are likely to get in or who are running in tossup districts where the outcome is unclear)-

 

Safe Jewish incumbent

Struggling Jewish incumbent

Jewish candidates

Retirements

Susan Davis (D-CA-53)

Brad Schneider (D-IL-10)

Andrew Romanoff (D-CO-6)

Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13) – lost in gubernatorial race

Alan Lowenthal (D-CA-47)

 

Lee Zeldin (R-NY-01)

Henry Waxman (D-CA-33)

Adam Schiff (D-CA-28)

 

Elan Carr (CA-33)

Eric Cantor (R-VA-07)

Brad Sherman (D-CA-30)

 

 

 

Jared Polis (D-CO-02)

 

 

 

Ted Deutch (D-FL-21)

 

 

 

Lois Frankel (D-FL-22)

 

 

 

Alan Grayson (D-FL-09)

 

 

 

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL-23)

 

 

 

Jan Schakowsky (D-IL-09)

 

 

 

John Yarmuth (D-KY-03)

 

 

 

Sander Levin (D-MI-09)

 

 

 

Eliot Engel (D-NY-16)

 

 

 

Steve Israel (D-NY-03)

 

 

 

Nita Lowey (D-NY-17)

 

 

 

Jerrold Nadler (D-NY-10)

 

 

 

David Cicilline (D-RI-01)

 

 

 

Steve Cohen (D-TN-09)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18

1

+1

(-3)

 


* In Bold: candidates with good chance of winning.

 

Notes on some of the races:

The battle for IL-10, a rematch between the (Jewish) Democrat Brad Schneider and Republican Robert Dold, is tight, as we've known for quite some time. If you still need signs that Schneider is a struggling incumbent, The Rothenberg Report gave that sign by changing the rating for this race from "leaning Dem" to "Tossup/Tiltls Dem". See the details here.

Adam Kwasman (AZ-01) lost his primary battle to represent the GOP and was eliminated from our list of candidates. Two weeks ago, the voters were notified that Kwasman has cancer. The race was close – really close. It doesn't make much different: another Jewish candidate is going home.

Zeldin (NY-01) is the likely candidate, says everybody. But it looks kind of funny that Zeldin's greatest fund raising support came from the losing Cantor.

The Philadelphia Enquirer is far from being impressed by PA-13 candidate Marjorie Margolis' campaign.  "The biggest political race in the state is the gubernatorial election. The biggest political name in the state, however, is Marjorie Margolies— aka the soon-to-be grandmother of Chelsea Clinton’s bundle of joy — who is running not to represent the Commonwealth in Harrisburg, but for her old seat in Congress. Accordingly, she’s tapped into a wealth of A-list support: Bill Clinton headlined her latest fundraiser; Madeleine Albright was the guest of honor at an earlier event. Just yesterday, she earned a feature in the Sunday New York Times. And yet, her campaign operation appears shaky at best".

In CA-33, Republican Elan Carr and Democratic rival Ted Lieu have advanced to the general election. They are battling to replace Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman. Lieu was endorsed by Waxman. Carr came first on primary day. The Weekly Standard seems to believe in Carr's candidacy:


Sonenshein notes that Carr’s first-place finish in the primary is somewhat misleading, since there were several Democratic candidates splitting the vote—the top four left-leaning candidates together got 61 percent of the vote—and Lieu isn’t seriously flawed in a way that would give an easy opening. Plus, Republicans are not very popular in the district. “But,” says Sonenshein, “it’s a district with a very strong Jewish population, which leans heavily Democratic. By virtue of being Jewish and also presumably socially moderate enough for the district,” Carr will at least earn consideration from voters. “Without that, I don’t even think he’s in the discussion.

 

 

Note to readers: If you want to correct any errors, or think we've missed a candidate or a race, please contact us at rosnersdomain@gmail.com.

 

 

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