October 17, 2013
House Jewish Projection
Latest update: June 11, 2014
2014 is here, as Eric Cantor's stunning loss has proved.
Just last week, we still contended "with some confidence" that very few Jewish incumbents seem in danger of losing their seats in 2014. And here we are, counting bodies. Cantor is down. Jewish primary candidates are down. Our count is down.
Currently we assume that 2014 is going to be another year of Jewish congressional decline. With the expected retirements and losses (including recent primary losses of Marjorie Margolis in PA, and Jewish candidates in CA-33) we put our projection at 20 Jewish representatives. The chances of seeing a Republican House member are not great, but if Kwasman can pull it off in Arizona (toss up) or if Zeldin can in New York (leaning Dem), maybe there will be someone replacing Cantor as the sole Jewish Republican representative.
Here is the updated table of Jewish candidates (remember, we only count Jewish candidates who are likely to get in or who are running in tossup districts where the outcome is unclear)-
Notes on some of the races:
The battle for IL-10, a rematch between the (Jewish) Democrat Brad Schneider and Republican Robert Dold, is tight, as we've known for quite some time. If you still need signs that Schneider is a struggling incumbent, The Rothenberg Report gave that sign by changing the rating for this race from "leaning Dem" to "Tossup/Tiltls Dem". See the details here.
Adam Kwasman (AZ-01) is in a primary battle to represent the GOP, but his chances seem smaller than others if one looks at fund raising as an indication for prospects for success. "He'll face Gary Kiehne, who has more than four times as much cash in his campaign coffer, and Andy Tobin, who has about three times as much money at the ready", says the Arizona Daily Star.
The Philadelphia Enquirer is far from being impressed by PA-13 candidate Marjorie Margolis' campaign. "The biggest political race in the state is the gubernatorial election. The biggest political name in the state, however, is Marjorie Margolies— aka the soon-to-be grandmother of Chelsea Clinton’s bundle of joy — who is running not to represent the Commonwealth in Harrisburg, but for her old seat in Congress. Accordingly, she’s tapped into a wealth of A-list support: Bill Clinton headlined her latest fundraiser; Madeleine Albright was the guest of honor at an earlier event. Just yesterday, she earned a feature in the Sunday New York Times. And yet, her campaign operation appears shaky at best".
In CA-33, Republican Elan Carr and Democratic rival Ted Lieu advanced to the general election. They are battling to replace Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman. Lie was endorsed by Waxman.
Note to readers: If you want to correct any errors, or think we've missed a candidate or a race, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.