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JewishJournal.com

October 17, 2013

House Jewish Projection

http://www.jewishjournal.com/blog/item/house_jewish_projection/

Latest update: September 10, 2014

Fall is here, and the 2014 elections are right around the corner.

We currently assume that 2014 is going to be another year of Jewish congressional decline. With the expected retirements and losses (including recent primary losses of Eric Cantor, Marjorie Margolis in PA, Adam Kwasman in AZ, and Jewish candidates in CA-33) we put our projection at 20 Jewish representatives. The chances of seeing a Republican House member are not great, but if  Zeldin can pull it off in New York, or Carr in California, maybe there will be someone replacing Cantor as the sole Jewish Republican representative.

 

 

Here is the updated table of Jewish candidates (remember, we only count Jewish candidates who are likely to get in or who are running in tossup districts where the outcome is unclear)-

 

Safe Jewish incumbent

Struggling Jewish incumbent

Jewish candidates

Retirements

Susan Davis (D-CA-53)

Brad Schneider (D-IL-10)

Andrew Romanoff (D-CO-6)

Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13) – lost in gubernatorial race

Alan Lowenthal (D-CA-47)

 

Lee Zeldin (R-NY-01)

Henry Waxman (D-CA-33)

Adam Schiff (D-CA-28)

 

Elan Carr (CA-33)

Eric Cantor (R-VA-07)

Brad Sherman (D-CA-30)

 

 

 

Jared Polis (D-CO-02)

 

 

 

Ted Deutch (D-FL-21)

 

 

 

Lois Frankel (D-FL-22)

 

 

 

Alan Grayson (D-FL-09)

 

 

 

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL-23)

 

 

 

Jan Schakowsky (D-IL-09)

 

 

 

John Yarmuth (D-KY-03)

 

 

 

Sander Levin (D-MI-09)

 

 

 

Eliot Engel (D-NY-16)

 

 

 

Steve Israel (D-NY-03)

 

 

 

Nita Lowey (D-NY-17)

 

 

 

Jerrold Nadler (D-NY-10)

 

 

 

David Cicilline (D-RI-01)

 

 

 

Steve Cohen (D-TN-09)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18

1

+1

(-3)

 


* In Bold: candidates with good chance of winning.

 

Notes on some of the races:

JTA's Ron Kampeas counts "a likely 19" Jewish representatives in his article from Sep. 9. I don't know why he is skeptical about the prospects of one of the three new candidates to make it into the House - we are still sticking to our projection of 20 for now. His article doesn't really deal with the numbers, though - it just talks about how they will clearly decline. Kampeas attempts to understand what the dwindling numbers mean: "Jewish lawmakers have traditionally been the first stop for Jewish lobbyists seeking inroads for their issues, including Israel, preserving the social safety net, and keeping church and state separate. Additionally, lawmakers generally seek guidance from colleagues most invested in an issue. Fewer Jewish lawmakers means the community could lose influence in areas where its voice has been preeminent".

Brad Schneider (IL-10) is one of the "10 most vulnerable" House members according to the Washington Post. Stu Rothenberg says: "This is one area where President Barack Obama’s Israel policy could push some disaffected Jewish voters into the GOP column and make a difference in the race".

Adam Kwasman (AZ-01) lost his primary battle to represent the GOP and was eliminated from our list of candidates. Two weeks ago, the voters were notified that Kwasman has cancer. The race was close – really close. It doesn't make much different: another Jewish candidate is going home.

Zeldin (NY-01) "survived an expensive and bitter primary and now faces Democratic Rep. Timothy H. Bishop in the general election". The Rothenberg report ranks this race among the "5 to watch" in the Mid-Atlantic, but still believes it "leans Democratic". On the other hand, the ranking was made before Rothenberg predicted a Republican wave in the next election.

In CA-33, Republican Elan Carr and Democratic rival Ted Lieu have advanced to the general election. They are battling to replace Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman. Lieu was endorsed by Waxman. Carr came first on primary day. The Weekly Standard seems to believe in Carr's candidacy:


Sonenshein notes that Carr’s first-place finish in the primary is somewhat misleading, since there were several Democratic candidates splitting the vote—the top four left-leaning candidates together got 61 percent of the vote—and Lieu isn’t seriously flawed in a way that would give an easy opening. Plus, Republicans are not very popular in the district. “But,” says Sonenshein, “it’s a district with a very strong Jewish population, which leans heavily Democratic. By virtue of being Jewish and also presumably socially moderate enough for the district,” Carr will at least earn consideration from voters. “Without that, I don’t even think he’s in the discussion.

 

 

Note to readers: If you want to correct any errors, or think we've missed a candidate or a race, please contact us at rosnersdomain@gmail.com.

 

 

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