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The Israel Factor’s Top 2016 Candidates: Few Reasons for Concern

by Shmuel Rosner

December 31, 2013 | 7:36 am

Israel's President Shimon Peres stands with Hillary Clinton
before their meeting in Jerusalem July 16, 2012.
Photo by Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

Of the 27 potential 2016 candidates for President that were ranked in the last Israel Factor survey (notably missing: the recently much-talked-about Mike Huckabee), only six were ranked 7 or more on the "good for Israel" scale. They are:

Hillary Clinton

8

Joe Biden

7.5

Cory Booker

7.43

Jeb Bush

7.33

Chris Christie

7.3

Andrew Cuomo

7.25

What is it that makes them attractive to our panel? First of all, that they have a chance of winning – for now, a chance of winning the candidacy is probably the key. Take a look at this table, which compares our top Democratic and Republican candidates with the top candidates to win the nomination according to PredictWise. The top three Republicans are the same, just not in the exact same order. The top two Democrats are the same, with the fourth also the same (there is a difference in the third pick).

 

Democratic Candidates

Republican candidates

Israel Factor

PredictWise

Israel Factor

PredictWise

Clinton

Clinton (55.1% chance of winning)

Bush

Christie (18.5% chance)

Biden

Biden (6.8% chance)

Christie

Rubio (14.5% chance)

Booker (Not ranked by PredictWise)

Warren (Israel Factor: 5.87)

Rubio

Bush (10.9% chance)

Cuomo

Cuomo (3.8% chance)

Huntsman (19 at PredictWise)

Paul (Israel Factor: 3.28; 7.3% chance)

Villaraigosa (12th at PredictWise)

Rahm Emanuel (Not ranked by Israel Factor)

Cantor (16 at PredictWise)

Cruz (Israel Factor: 5.11; 5.8% chance)

Gillibrand (8th at PredictWise)

Patrick (Israel Factor: 5.57)

Pence (Not ranked by PredictWise)

Walker (Factor: not ranked)

What do we learn from this?

That all in all, chances are that our Israel Factor experts aren't going to be hugely disappointed with the candidate (like they were in 2008, when Obama was far from being the panel's preferred candidate).

Tricky candidacies include, for now, Warren on the Democratic side – the panel doesn't feel comfortable with her, and she is up there as a strong PredictWise candidate – and, of course, Rand Paul, the lowest ranking Israel Factor candidate, but a strong Republican contender (on the Republican side, Ted Cruz is also problematic, with relatively high chances of being nominated and a skeptical Factor ranking, but hardly as low as Paul's).

(And yes, we do know it is very early and that many things can change.)

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