Jewish Journal


Political tidbits: Another Jew in the House

by Shmuel Rosner

June 6, 2012 | 12:17 pm

Randy Altschuler


With another primary day over, body count can begin: Sherman in, ‎Berman in, Rothman out, Wilmer out, Lowenthal in, Schiff in. Our ‎House Jewish Projection page has been updated. We’ve also changed our over‎all projection from -4 to -3. It might be a little bit on the optimistic side, ‎but we’ll stick with it for the time being. This means that next year we ‎will have 24 Jewish members in the House. Go see the detailed math on ‎the House page. ‎


The JTA did a story the other day on the NY-01 race on which we’ve written ‎quite a lot lately. The story says what we’ve been saying: Republican ‎Jews hope Randy Altschuler is going to join Eric Cantor as the second ‎Republican Jew in the House. But the story also contained the following ‎paragraph:‎

Altschuler is one of several Jewish Republicans drawing attention ‎from RJC supporters. Others include Adam Hasner, competing for ‎a House seat in the Florida delegation.‎

Note this: Altschuler was added to our Projection not long ago, Hasner ‎was there all along.  NY-01 is ranked “lean Democratic” by the Cook ‎Report, Florida 22 is a “toss up”. Is it possible that following the ‎November elections Republicans will have the unprecedented number ‎of three Jewish representatives serving in the House?‎


I’m not yet amending my projection for the percentage of Jewish votes ‎Obama and Romney will be getting in November (see the analysis here). ‎However, the recent Workmen’s Circle survey, that is giving Obama ‎‎58% of the Jewish vote and Romney 27% with 15% “unsure” is an ‎interesting addition to the mix. The big question of course will be the ‎breakout of the undecided voters – if they split the same way as ‎‎“decided” voters (that’s what the analysts of TWC believe), Obama ‎would be at 68%. That’s still pretty low for the President, and not bad ‎for Romney. But I’d like to see more such polls before I believe this one. ‎


The Workmen’s Circle survey also has a section on Jewish Party ‎identification – a trend that we’ve been tracking on the J-Meter for the last ‎couple of months. All in all, TWC numbers fit in nicely with previous ‎polls. The new poll does not force Independents into a “leaning” ‎column, so all we can do with it is update the graph that includes the ‎three columns: Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Take a look ‎at the graph. ‎


‎* AJC Annual Survey of Jewish Opinion‎
‎** Gallup‎
‎*** Jewish Distinctiveness in America, 2004‎
‎***** Workmen’s Circle‎

Tracker Pixel for Entry


We welcome your feedback.

Privacy Policy
Your information will not be shared or sold without your consent. Get all the details.

Terms of Service
JewishJournal.com has rules for its commenting community.Get all the details.

JewishJournal.com reserves the right to use your comment in our weekly print publication.


The Israel Factor