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Israel Poll Trends: What will the center do?

by Shmuel Rosner

April 14, 2014 | 6:01 am

Updated: 01/23/2015

According to recent polls, about 25 mandates go to parties that the voter can't be quite sure where they are headed: Kulanu (Kahlon), Yesh Atid (Lapid), and Israel Beiteinu (Lieberman). The three parties have a lot in common. First, all three are not really parties, they are platforms for a leader – a self appointed leader – to gain power. Kahlon, Lapid, and Lieberman are masters of small domains. They are the parties. They appoint the people on their lists, they decide which way to go, they are in charge of ideology and tactics.

They also share a certain vagueness as to their future intentions. While it is clear that Habayit Hayehudi (and Eli Yishay's new party) are going to support PM Netanyahu for another term, and it is clear that Meretz is likely to recommend Herzog, the triumvirate of Kahlon, Liberman, and Lapid is keeping its options open. That is to say: the voter has no clue what coalition he is voting for as he casts a Kahlon-Lieberman-Lapid ballot.

What can they do after Election Day? They can go together as a powerful bloc and make demands – such as serving in rotation in the PM position. They can go separately. They can go with Netanyahu (Lapid is less likely to do so if Netanyahu forms a coalition with the right-haredi bloc). They can go with Herzog (but the center-left doesn't have enough votes even with them, unless it relies on Arab parties – I don't think that's likely with Lieberman as a member of the coalition – or haredi parties, which might take Lapid out of the equation).

They all seem to share a desire to see Netanyahu go, but also seem to share a certain realism that make them understand that this might not happen. Netanyahu has one very significant card as he thinks about these parties and the day after: They all have very little to offer as members of an opposition. These are parties that were all established with the intention of being a part of the ruling coalition.


Here's an updated graph of the Likud-Labor (+Livni) situation:

Here's an updated graph from Nehemia Gershuni's Project 61 projection site:

And here's the table of recent polls:

All right: Likud Beiteinu (Likud+Yisrael Beitenu)+Habayit Hayehudi+Strong Israel

All center: Yesh Atid+Hatnua+Kadima+ Kulanu

All left: Labor+Meretz+Hatnua

All religious: Jewih Home+Shas+Yahadut Hatorah+Eli Yishai

All Arab: Hadash+Raam Taal+Balad

 

Click here For the full table (featuring all the polls since the elections).

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