Jewish Journal


Israel Poll Trends: The current state of the race

by Shmuel Rosner

April 14, 2014 | 6:01 am

Updated: 03/11/2015

A lot depends on the smallest parties, that is, the two parties that still – according to polls – might fail to pass the electoral threshold.

Eli Yashai's Yachad on the far right, and Meretz on the far left are both essential to Netanyahu and Herzog, respectively. If Yishai fails to get in, and almost 4 mandates are lost to the right wing bloc, Netanyahu (according to current polls) can't form a coalition without Lieberman, and Lieberman's mood can be shifty. If Meretz doesn't get in, Herzog's situation – that is complicated to begin with – becomes almost irreparable.

The good news for Netanyahu: Yachad is climbing in the polls and has 5 in most of them. The good news for Herzog: Meretz is also climbing to 5 in most polls. Yet the news is better for Netanyahu than for Herzog for two reasons. One – Netanyahu is in better shape to form a coalition. Two – Yachad takes votes away from parties other than Netanyahu's Likud. The votes that maintain Meretz are votes that could potentially benefit Herzog's The Zionist Camp.


Here's an updated graph of the Likud-Labor (+Livni) situation:

Here's an updated graph from Nehemia Gershuni's Project 61 projection site:

And here's the table of recent polls:

All right: Likud+Yisrael Beitenu+Habayit Hayehudi+Yachad (Eli Yishai)

All center: Yesh Atid+Hatnua+Kadima+ Kulanu

All left: Labor+Meretz+Hatnua

All religious: Jewih Home+Shas+Yahadut Hatorah+Yachad (Eli Yishai)

All Arab: Hadash+Raam Taal+Balad

You can find the full table of polls (since the last elections) right here.

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