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OPEN POST: The Jewish House/Senate: Losses in both, as predicted

by Shmuel Rosner

November 6, 2012 | 3:20 pm

(Photo: Reuters)

The Jewish House Projection - our prediction for the Jewish presence in the next House. 

The Jewish Senate Projection - our prediction for the Jewish presence in the next Senate.

 

00:42am EST

Our prediction of 20 Jewish members of the House and 11 Jewish Senators post-Election Day seems to be holding true, for the most part. The final counts will give us a true indication of how close we really were.

David Cicilline held onto his seat despite trailing at one point during the count. It's still up in the air for Shelley Berkley of Nevada in her bid for the Senate, in a tightly run contest. Most surprising win of the night (and it wasn't that surprising) was Brad Schneider, who beat incumbent Bob Dold to steal the House seat for the toss-up IL-10. The hopes of a second Republican in the House, meanwhile, were dashed with Randy Altschuler's loss to Tim Bishop in NY-01.

 

11:38pm EST

Brad Schneider (IL-10) is almost there with 99% of the vote counted, unseating Bob Dold, in one of the tightest tossup races this year (and adding a new Jewish member to the House).

 

11:25pm EST

AP says Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) keeps her seat

 

11:07pm EST

Rep. David Cicilline (RI) was eventually able to beat his opponent and hold onto his seat. This means that no Jewish House incumbent - except for Berman or Sherman - is going to lose his seat.

 

11:06pm EST

With 83% of the vote counted, Bishop is leading Altschuler in NY-01. But the lead is narrow

 

10:39pm EST

National Jewish Democratic Council, congratulating Frankel: [She] has already proven herself to be dedicated public servant in the Florida statehouse, and we know that she will be a tireless advocate for her constituents in Florida’s 22nd District—and for the issues of concern to most Jews.

10:17pm EST

Florida 22 - the Jew vs. Jew race - is over. With 92% of the vote counted, Lois Frankel leads Adam Hasner 55%-45%

 

10:14pm EST

Looking at the Nevada exit polls, it looks as if Shelley Berkley will narrowly lose her Senate race. She gets the majority of the women's vote, but is losing big among men. She's winning big with younger voters, but losing with all voters older than 30.

 

9:47pm EST

Rabbi Shmuley Boteach was a colorful candidate for the House, but his chances were slim to begin with. He is now trailing his rival Bill Pascrell badly, and NJ-09 will remain in Democratic hands. This leaves NY-01 as the only race that can add a second Jewish Republican to the House.

9:45pm EST

Alan Grayson wins in FL-09, congratulated by the NJDC: "Grayson is an experienced public servant and businessman and an icon for so many in our party. Given his previous experience in Congress, we know that he will work tirelessly on behalf of his constituents in Florida’s 9th District and for the values shared by the vast majority in our broader Jewish community."

 

9:29pm EST

Reporting from Ohio: Josh Mandel is unlikely to win his Ohio Senate race. He is winning many counties, but not in the necessary margin - as his rival, Senator Brown is over-performing Obama in the state. 

 

9:09pm EST

The National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) congratulated its Honorary Co-Chair Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) on his victory tonight.

NJDC Chair Marc R. Stanley and President and CEO David A. Harris said: "On behalf of NJDC's Board of Directors, staff and membership, we heartily congratulate Senator Ben Cardin on his strong victory tonight. Senator Cardin is a true leader on the issues that matter most to the vast majority of the Jewish community, in Maryland and nationwide, and he is a champion of our shared Democratic ideals. And we at NJDC take particular pride in Senator Cardin's victory tonight, given his role as our Honorary Co-Chair. "We look forward to continuing our close relationship with Senator Cardin during his second term in the United States Senate."

 

9:02pm EST

Cicilline apparently closes the gap in RI

8:35pm EST

David Cicilline, D-RI, one of the most vulnerable Jewish House members is trailing at the moment. He is the only Jewish incumbent in our Jewish House Projection who might lose his race.

 

8:20pm EST

No surprise, Cardin will take MD.

 

7:46pm EST 

The Bing election news projects a victory for Democrat Lois Frankel in the Jew vs. Jew race of Florida 22 for the House. I interviewed the candidates and wrote about this race here. No matter who wins, this race doesn’t change our Jewish House Projection, as both candidates are Jewish.

 

7pm EST

JTA’s Daniel Treiman rightly claims that there’s Jewish special interest in Wisconsin Senate race between Tommy Thompson (R) and Tammy Baldwin (D). Iran was an issue in the closely fought race for Wisconsin’s Senate seat, he writes. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, a Republican, has attacked his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, for her past votes against Iran sanctions legislation, calling her “anti-Israel.” Baldwin, who would be the first openly gay person elected to the Senate if she wins, says she is pro-Israel and touts her more recent support for sanctions legislation.

I have not always been kind to Thompson on Jewish-related matters. But on Iran he’s the one seemingly on the right side of the debate as far as I’m concerned.

 

6:30pm EST

A reminder: our final projection for the number of Jews in the House was 20, our final projection for the Senate was 11. At things to watch on election night we pointed to some of the races that are worthy of attention. 

 

Check out Shmuel Rosner's book, The Jewish Vote: Obama vs. Romney / A Jewish Voter's Guide

Rosner's Domain Jewish Party Identification - how do America's Jews vote? 

Things to watch on election night: A Jewish Voter’s Guide 

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