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December 23, 2011 | 1:57 am

Jewish voters and the Ron Paul effect

Posted by Shmuel Rosner

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Ron Paul: The Bogeyman of Jewish Republicans

What can they say about Paul?

What happens to Jewish Republicans, or to Jews who might consider voting Republican if Ron Paul takes Iowa - not an impossible scenario according to current polling. What happens to the Obama-bad-for-Israel Republican theme if Paul becomes the leading voice of their party - even for a week (until the New Hampshire vote). What chances do GOP Jews have to finally break the unending chain of broken Jewish-shift promises. How can Jewish GOPers withstand the ensuing Democratic attack on the “isolationist”, “anti foreign aid”, “anti-Israel” party – how can they defend a party that is seriously considering the nominating for President of a candidate that Jewish Republicans defined as “a virulent and harsh critic of Israel”?

They will do it using three and a half lines of defense:

A. Iowa is not important. If Ron Paul takes Iowa GOP Jews might be somewhat embarrassed, but the real loser would be the state of Iowa. “Paul’s late surge this year may help nudge Iowa back toward political obscurity. Giving the nod to a novelty candidate like Paul would further undermine Iowa’s already shaky claim to first-in-the-nation status”, writes Margaret Carlson. My prediction: Jewish war against Iowa.

B. The Primary is a process: Wait for the final outcome (Romney, Gingrich – two better-for-Israel candidates), and don’t bother us with the ups and downs of the long campaign.

C. The other party also has its fringe characters and beliefs (weak argument until the Democratic fringe takes over at least one state in the primaries).

And a half: That’s a tricky one, but I’ve heard it, tongue in cheek, from a Jewish Republican hack who told me that “our fringe candidate might take one state, but theirs took over the party and the country three years ago”. Namely, Paul is the right-wing equivalent of Obama’s. Such a blunt message might fly with some extremely unhappy voters, but would not sway rank and file on-the-fence Jewish Floridians.

A Paul Iowa victory will, no doubt, make life more complicated for the forces of Jewish Republicanism. The Pauls, Ron and son Senator Rand Paul, “have handed the Democrats a handy tool to use every time the Republicans bring up Jesse Jackson, Rep. Jim Moran and others as ‘proof’ of a Democratic Party that is turning away from Israel”, Jim Bnesser wrote two months ago. But will it have real impact on voters? And what kind of impact? Some Jewish Democrats have suggested that the Paul surge can be even more devastating than the Sarah Palin effect on Jewish voters back in 2008. So I had to go back and revisit the Palin effect – or should we call it the Palin myth?

The Palin effect

The story of a Palin negative effect on Jewish voters is a well documented story. It keeps popping up whenever there’s need for a diagnostic analysis of the inherent incompatibility of Jewish voters and Republican politics. “As it turned out”, explained this Daily Kos report, “a key factor in John McCain’s failure to get American Jews to choose him was his choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. In the run-up to the 2008 election, Newsweek reported that ‘Palin may hurt McCain among Jewish voters.’ The dynamics in Florida, later carried by Barack Obama, were particularly telling”.

Telling in what way? Here’s the way the Daily Beast chose to explain the story of the Jewish vote in 2008: “this year’s Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama, has appeared to lag among Jews. The AJC poll showed only 57 percent of Jews nationwide supporting Obama, with 30 percent backing McCain and 13 percent undecided. “There’s no question that Obama came into this election with probably less going for him than most Democratic nominees,” says Wald. But the Palin pick “probably blunted any gains the Republicans had made.”

In short: Obama was in trouble, as documented by an AJC survey, then McCain picked Palin, and winds have shifted back to the left. Sounds reasonable? If you read the 2008 AJC survey of Jewish opinion you might be tempted to believe this line of argument. Only 57% of Jews said they’d vote for Obama in September, but something changed their minds until Election Day. Could it not be Palin, is she not the most likely instigator of such change?

I’m afraid to say the answer is no. With all due respect to all writers explaining that “John McCain may have helped Obama with his Jewish problem by choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate”, and to Jewish Democrats who “believe the nomination of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has driven many undecided Jews back into the arms of the Democrats” – the evidence isn’t exactly supportive of such a theory.

While I’m pretty sure there are Jewish voters, here and there, who decided to vote Obama because of the Palin nomination, most Jewish voters have jumped on the Obama bandwagon way before Palin was nominated. And to realize that, one has to abandon the AJC survey that was both late and is considered to be relatively conservative, and look at the numbers released by Gallup. The Palin surprise came in late August of 2008 – but Jewish voters were abandoning McCain two months before Palin became a player in the campaign. In July of 2008 McCain could still hope for 34% of Jewish support, in August of 2008 his numbers among Jews went down to 25%. That’s pretty much the percentage of Jews who eventually voted for him. Palin didn’t add anything and did not take anything away from the McCain campaign (To be honest: If Joe Lieberman would have been nominated as McCain’s VP candidate, it could have changed the numbers).

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The Palin effect than is a Palin myth. That Palin is not well-liked in many Jewish circles – is a given. However, in those Jewish circles, no one was ever serious about voting for McCain, with or without Palin.

Back to the Paul Effect

So here’s the impact an Iowa Paul victory will have on Jewish voters:


1. It will put Jewish Republicans on the defensive side for a while.
2.It will harden believes among Jewish Democrats that their Party is the only party a real Jew can vote for.
3.It will force other Republican candidates into raising the level of rhetorical support for Israel even more.
4.It will make Jewish Republicans work even harder for the candidate they’d believe can defeat Paul (I think Romney is the one that is likely to benefit).
5.It will make very little impact on the actual vote of Jews. For details: see the Palin effect myth.

All this changes of course if Paul is able to capitalize on Iowa and to have strong showings in other states. Very few Jews would ever consider voting for a candidate Paul (26 out of 2300 Jews, according to this unrepresentative Windmueller survey). And many conservative-tilting Jews would not feel comfortable with a party in which Paul is playing a major role. No, this isn’t a likely scenario, but politics is a tricky game so who knows: A great year for Paul might even give President Obama a chance to do better than he did in 2008 with Jewish voters.

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Hi Mr. Rosner.

I am a Christian and I love Israel, but I also love America.

Israel is not my 12 year old son who cannot operate outside of my permission. Israel is a sovereign country who takes responsibility for its own actions, and garners my support when it is in REAL danger. Not -possible- danger. REAL danger.

One more thing….

What happens to Jewish voters in A,B,C…

I see you’re missing D.

D. Jewish voters who love Israel so much can move back to Israel.

Have a great day and a merry Christmas!

Comment by Nathaniel H on 12/23/11 at 2:40 am

This articles is based on lies. Do some research before you write an article, because this makes you look real bad.

Here’s a bit of a reality check: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zGCdHelRvE

Comment by really? on 12/23/11 at 2:45 am

Do you not want israel to step out from under the shadow of the US and be able to truly define its own future?  part of my family is jewish and we support Ron Paul because he is the only candidate that won’t give money to israel (and three times as much to its enemies) and would allow israel to determine its own future.  Once israel is truly independent then it matters not who is in charge of the US.  Independence and self determination are important parts of Zionist philosophy… i think that its time to be brave..

Comment by Travis on 12/23/11 at 2:59 am

Paul, on Israel, said “I think they’re quite capable of taking care of themselves,” This defines him as “a virulent and harsh critic of Israel”?  To demonize anyone who does not hold your opinion is to create an enemy. Paul is correct—Israel is more than the mere client state of America. Time for it to claim independence, and that is all Paul seeks—The independence of Israel.

Comment by L.Step on 12/23/11 at 3:43 am

paul is a experienced politician. He knows well that israel must go and no use to support him any longer.
We paid very high price in supporting israel and now time came to let him go for the sake of generations to come in america.
There is no nation on this earth to care or to support israel. Why should we ?

Comment by George on 12/23/11 at 4:16 am

First, you misspelled the word “embarrassed”.

Second, Ron Paul is a front runner, not a novelty candidate.

Third, Iowan’s should never be punished for not choosing the candidate that the mainstream media tells them to….It’s simply un-American. 

And finally, the last time I checked, Israel was not the 51st state.  There’s way too much Israeli influence in American politics.  America comes first.  If America doesn’t fix her current problems, she will no longer be any good to anyone, including Israel.  This nation can no longer sustain policing the world and carrying on trillion dollar wars on multiple fronts.  Israel is more than capable of taking care of herself.

Comment by Renard on 12/23/11 at 4:26 am

Wouldnt it be better for Israel to have Ron Paul for President. Has his voting record in favour of Israel and its right to self determination proof….Did he not vote in favour of allowing Israel defend itself against the Iranians in the past…...

Comment by E on 12/23/11 at 5:02 am

That’s a very narrow view. Think of this man’s overall policy and how beneficial it is to a nation that is suffering.

Ron Paul 2012!

Comment by David on 12/23/11 at 5:06 am

You know what happens when you depend on a rich uncle for your sustenance? ultimately that rich uncle will ask you to mow his lawn, clean his garage, do his laundry: ultimately you decide that maybe your freedom is not worth all that money. And when your friend tells you that maybe you would be better off “long term’ without this incestuous relationship, you shrug it off because that would mean short term pain for long term gain. You infer what you want from this!

Comment by Frank Hollenbeck on 12/23/11 at 5:07 am

Ron Paul is NOT and ISOLATIONIST, he’s a non-interventionist! He’s a FRIEND to Israel. By ending ALL aid, we end aid to her enemies as well!
Let’s not forget RP was one of the only Congressmen who voted against condemning Israel for bombing Iraq’s nuclear reactors in 1981. “Almost the entire US Congress voted to condemn the act, but Congressman Paul was one of the few Republicans who stood up and said Israel should not have to answer to America for how she defends herself. Remember, this was the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan that had condemned Israel, a coalition that included the most hawkish anti-Communists and the most fervent Christian conservatives.”

Comment by Jewels on 12/23/11 at 5:13 am

Our military men and women support him OVERWHELMINGLY! He gets of 70% of the support to GOP candidates and gets more than all of them and Obama COMBINED!

He also gets more non-white votes than all the other candidates as well.

Get informed and stop letting the media write the story!

Comment by Jewels on 12/23/11 at 5:13 am

Don’t forget that some of Ron Paul’s favorite economists are Mises and Rothbard, both Jewish.  Here is another Jewish economist’s take on Ron Paul. 
An Open Letter to the Jewish Community in Behalf of Ron Paul
by Walter Blockhttp://lewrockwell.com/block/block88.html

Comment by Pat on 12/23/11 at 5:14 am

What? You can’t imagine that there might actually be Jews who support Ron Paul? Well, this former Angeleno (in Israel since 1993) does!

Comment by Shimshon on 12/23/11 at 5:41 am

I’m sorry folks, but if you adhere to the Republican doctrine of not wanting your money to go to others, you have forsaken your faith.

Comment by ejr1953 on 12/23/11 at 6:57 am

I completely disagree with you. Qualifier, I am Jewish and I am now a supporter of Ron Paul for President.

First off, I would like you to qualify why you think Ron Paul is anti Israel? As far as I can tell all that you have used as evidence is a catch phrase from the Jewish Coalition debate. Seems a bit of a weak “monkey see monkey do” kind of argument.

A candidate that would not meddle in the affairs of every Arab country and would promote trading and peaceful negotiation would enable real peaceful negotiations to occur. The Arabs won’t stick to a peace treaty with us since they always think the scales are tilted against them. Moreover, borders where ‘goods’ cross, armies don’t.

Comment by Money_Matters on 12/23/11 at 7:10 am

Second reason for supporting Ron Paul. We as Jews always say “never again” when referring to the atrocities of WW2. “Never again” can we allow our people to be subjected to such abject cruelness. Given that statement I ask you “how did WW2 happen?”. I reference Hayek’s Road to Serfdom and assert that Nazism was a natural consequence of a drive to central control and big government initiated by Bismarck 50 years earlier.

Comment by Money_Matters on 12/23/11 at 7:11 am

‘Socialism’ by Ludwig von Mises (also Jewish, not that it really matters) outlines why socialism as a political system is doomed for failure since it ignores market calculation, wastes a country’s precious resources and by extension requires central command which leads to tyranny. Socialism wastes a country’s resources and so socialist countries tend to become aggressive since they cannot fathom why their standard of living is decreasing. They often blame straw men for their problems (the Jews, the Rich etc…) when they should just blame their economic system.

Comment by Money_Matters on 12/23/11 at 7:12 am

I mention this because Ron Paul is the only candidate that pushes for free market laissez faire economics rather that statist quasi socialist welfare/warfare ideas. If you want to ensure “never again” is not an empty phrase you should study the economic reasons for the outcrop of Nazism (Weimar hyperinflation, Bismarkian socialism corralary drive for territorial expansion WW1). Contrast that with the relative peacefulness under classical liberalism.

Comment by Money_Matters on 12/23/11 at 7:13 am

If you want to be intellectually honest with yourself I strongly suggest you have another look at Ron Paul and his intellectual free market counterparts at the so called ‘Austrian School of Economics’ (Murray Rothbard, Ludwig von Mises, FA Hayek).

Comment by Money_Matters on 12/23/11 at 7:13 am

Benjamin Netanyahu Prime Minister of Israel agrees with Ron Paul” grin -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ljxQn5nm8A

Imagine if!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKfuS6gfxPY

Comment by lets work together on 12/23/11 at 7:23 am

Can I ask you one question?  In 1981, when Israel bombed Iraq’s nuclear installation, how many USA lawmakers stood up for Israel’s right to defend herself.  One man stood alone in congress in Israel’s defense.

Ron Paul.

Do research.  Don’t be mouth fed; your proud ancestry would be ashamed.

Comment by JP on 12/23/11 at 8:46 am

I think one important thing that the Jewish community needs to keep in mind about Ron is that he supported Israel’s bombing of Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981. This support from 30 years ago is still present today. He’s consistent and truly has Israel’s Sovereignty in mind. If I had to look at Obama and his feelings toward Israel i would only have to look to his comments with Sarkozy. Having to “deal” with Netanyahu on a weekly basis suggests that it’s a burden and unwanted.

Comment by Josh on 12/23/11 at 8:54 am

The $3 billion a year “free gift” from the US to Israel should stop. So should the $12 billion a year gift to her “enemies”.

Zionism is founded on the principles of self-reliance and self-determination. Yet Israel has no shame in accepting this charity from the US. And it comes with strings attached - control over Israeli policy. The other $12 billion? Attempted control over the governments of the mid-east.

No shame, no gain is apparently the Israeli policy in accepting these ‘gifts’.
When will Israel grow up and determine it’s own destiny without the influence of the US?

Never, it seems.

Comment by John G. on 12/23/11 at 9:19 am

Rosey Mule,

You have some very good “what ifs”, but you are not thinking outside of the box. The Jewish Journal kool-aid that implies that Ron Paul is an anti-Semite, but Dr. Paul doesn’t hate the Jewish as much as he doesn’t other Semitic tribes, even Arabic Semitic tribes.
There are numerous esteemed American Jews who fit the perfect VP profile. Don’t be surprised of the Jewish Palin effect either. Try to stop hating other cultures so that we can all enjoy this life while we are here.
עֲלֵיכֶם שָׁלוֹם
Shalom

Comment by rkm on 12/23/11 at 9:59 am

You should also feature some very severe embarrassments to the Democrats

Rashid Khalidi a rabid anti-Israel fanatic ( Dismantle Israel ) has free reign of the White House. He brags that he formulated Obama’s view of the Middle East

Obama promoted 2 of the 3 main creators of the false intelligence report that permitted Iran to proceed with its nuclear weapons development (the 3rd retired)

Jimmy Carter is still a Democratic icon

Brezinski formulated the position that “we can live with that nuclear Iran”

Samantha Powers applies genocide to Israeli actions

US withdrawal from Iraq gives Iran free play to make Iraq again a confrontational state against Israel

Comment by LT COL HOWARD on 12/23/11 at 12:49 pm

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