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Israel vs. Palestinians: The Numbers and the Growing Gap

by Shmuel Rosner

May 6, 2013 | 8:24 am

What we have for you here are the detailed numbers of two polls that frequently ask Americans about the favorability of Israel compared to that of the Palestinians. You can see the numbers for Pew, the numbers for Gallup, the gap between Israel and the Palestinians in each poll, the graphs that accompany the numbers, and some technical notes.

We wrote a lengthy explanation and analysis for this page which you can find here.

Our regular favorability feature, the graph, computed by Prof. Camil Fuchs, which describes favorability of Israel (rather than Israel vs. Palestine) is right here.

Here are the numbers from Pew. The question used by Pew is: “In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, which side do you sympathize with more, Israel or the Palestinians?”

PEW numbers

Israel

Palestinians

Gap

Apr 3-6, 2014

53

11

42

Mar 13-17 , 2013

49

12

37

Dec 5-9 , 2012

50

10

40

May 25-30 2011

48

11

37

Apr 21-26, 2010

49

16

33

Oct 28-Nov 8, 2009

51

12

39

January 7-11, 2009

49

11

38

May, 2007

49

11

38

August, 2006

52

11

41

July, 2006

44

9

35

May, 2006

48

13

35

Late October, 2005

43

17

26

July, 2005

37

12

25

July, 2004

40

13

27

Late February, 2004

46

12

34

April, 2002

41

13

28

Mid-October, 2001

47

10

37

Early September, 2001

40

17

23

September, 1997

48

13

35

September, 1993

45

21

24

Chicago CFR: 1990

34

14

20

Chicago CFR: 1982

40

17

23

Chicago CFR: 1978

45

14

31

 

Notes:

  • You can find the numbers online here (except for the gap – this is our addition).
  • Pew notes that “In the 1978 Chicago Council on Foreign Relations survey conducted by the Gallup Organization, results are based on respondents who said they had “heard or read about the situation in the Middle East,” which represented 87% of the public. As a context note, in both the 1978 and 1982 CCFR/Gallup surveys, this question followed a broader question: “In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with Israel or more with the Arab nations?” and in 1982, a question regarding “U.S. military aid and arms sales to Israel.”
  • The numbers for “neither” and for “DK/Ref are not included here. The “neither” for the last four polls was 16%, 12%, 13%, 16%.

 

Here’s the graph for the Pew surveys:

The numbers for Gallup refer to the question: “In the Middle East, are you sympathizes more with Israel or with the Palestinians?”

 

Gallup numbers:

Israel

Palestinians

Gap

2014

62

18

44

2012

61

17

44

2010

59

18

41

2008

58

20

38

2006

52

18

34

2004

58

13

45

2002

51

16

35

2000

43

12

31

1998

38

8

30

1994

42

15

27

1990

64

7

57

1988

37

15

22

 

Notes:

  • The dates we have here are approximate: Gallup didn’t post the exact details in recent posts, so we relied on its graph and put the year closest to the numbers shown. This should not be of much consequence.
  • As you can see, the numbers for both Israel and the Palestinians are higher for Gallup, because of a different methodology of computation.
  • Gallup list “both”, “neither” and “no opinion” under one category. In the last poll the number for this category was 21%.
  • Gallup had more polls with this question, but we only used the ones that were listed in the recent post – see it here.

 

Here is the graph for the Gallup numbers:

And here is the table of gaps – Pew and Gallup side by side:

 

Gap Gallup

Gap PEW

2014

44

42

2012

44

40

2010

41

33

2008

38

38

2006

34

35

2004

45

34

2002

35

28

2000

31

23

1998

30

35

1994

27

24

1990

57

20

 

Notes:

  • To make this more friendly and understandable, we only used here the Pew polls that correspond to the dates for which we had Gallup polls. That is, we eliminated here the polls from dates for which we don’t have polls from both institutions. Naturally, this means that we have less polls here (you can see the rest of them in the separate tables above).
  • When we had more than one poll for a year (for Pew) we used the one with the number closer to other polls. When we had three polls for the same year we used the number from the poll in the middle.
  • As you can see here – and in the graph – the only time when there was a really big difference between the two polls was 1990. We didn’t examine the exact dates of the two polls but assume it has to do with their dates as they correspond to the first Gulf War, a time when Israel’s favorability hit the roof (hence the 57% gap in the Gallup poll that year, that quickly went down later).

 

Here is the graph for the gaps, which we already used on the analysis post.

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