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February 1, 2012 | 4:24 am

How to spin the Florida Jewish vote

Posted by Shmuel Rosner

Photo

Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich at their debate in Florida, January 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

A week ago I wrote that the most interesting question about the Florida Jewish vote is that “If the percentage of Republican Jews is higher this year than in 2008; if more than 4-5% of the Republican Florida voters are Jewish.” The answer to this question is now clear: a resounding no. According to exit polls only 1% of Republican voters were Jewish – that’s not more but rather less Jewish voters than the number of 2008. Jonathan Tobin of the conservative Contentions was trying to spin this number in a way that makes it less devastating for Jewish Republicans:

It is true that a drop in GOP Jewish registration shows none of the candidates generated enough Jewish buzz to get more voters to switch party affiliation as in 2008. But the comparison is unfair, because the man who drove that mini-surge in Jewish Republican voters was Rudy Giuliani. Though he flopped in the Florida primary four years ago, the former mayor of New York was a big favorite of the Jewish and pro-Israel community. None of this year’s Republican crop can claim that kind of loyalty from Jews, but the ultimate winner of the GOP nomination will have one thing going for him: he’ll be running against an incumbent president who is rightly viewed by many Jews as having distanced himself from Israel.

Nice try, but I don’t know how Tuesday’s results could be interpreted in ways favorable to Jewish Republicans. Clearly, the Jews of Florida aren’t moved by the candidates, they aren’t moved by the party, and they aren’t moved by Obama’s policies – not enough to switch party registration and vote for their candidate of choice. The Giuliani theory is moving and somewhat sensible, except for one problem: Tobin has no way of proving that the Jews of Florida supported Giuliani over John McCain. McCain was campaigning with his good buddy Senator Joe Lieberman all across Florida, and since the percentage of Jews in the exit polls was so low, we don’t know how the actual Jewish vote was distributed among the candidates.

Tobin is right about one thing: the fact that there was no surge in Jewish Republican primary voters doesn’t guarantee the 2012 Jewish support for Obama. The Jews of Florida could still decide to vote for the eventual GOP nominee (probably Romney), or could still decide to stay home. But Tuesday’s primary vote didn’t give any indication that such thing is more likely to happen than previously thought. Democrats have good reason to feel vindicated - Republicans have good reason to, well, try and spin it.

 

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Again the familiar attempt to give authority to c0omments is shown by this assumption, that one knows what perscent of Jews voted republican. the last time I looked, voting was done in secret. Yet here, writers wanting to look authoratative and get articles published and read, pretend they know the percentages of voters that are Jewish and voting for this or that. Ridiculous. Perhaps there is some polling, and then making assumptions based upon this, but I am no longer going to acdept this type of thinking or waste my time reading these articles. Three percent less, 2 percent more of Jews voted here or there? Fantasy, just a way to get readers and sound like the commentator knows something.

Comment by Dr. Gene Loeb on 2/01/12 at 1:11 pm

Can’t imagine what readers have interest in the above column other than the author Mr. Rosner or Jonathan Tobin.  The term “Republican Jew” an oxymoron; less than 10 thousand that rare species self-identified in California, a slightly larger state than Florida. The key lies with independent votors who claim greater numbers than either Dems or GOP.

The answer is quite simple; as in Jimmy Carter’s one-term presidency. If nation’s voters perceive Mr. Obama has having US on the right track financially, h’ell win!  Failure to do so will trigger this president’s self-uttered, 2008 spectre of doom. It’s that simple and that complex all at once.

Nothing succeeds like success. Aunty Mame

Comment by Mr. Againster on 2/01/12 at 1:37 pm

This just proves what I have been saying for a long long time: Jews who have always voted Democrat don’t know how to adjust their thinking to today’s reality, no matter how damaging another 4 years of Obama may be.  From Roosevelt on, who was later shown to be very removed from the plight of Europe’s Jews in WWII, we do not recognize that all Democrats are not friends of Jews.  Jews need an education of what Republican presidents (even Nixon) did to help Israel.  Of course, they may not want to be confused with facts.

Comment by Natalie Roberts on 2/01/12 at 7:20 pm

I like to think that Jews are too smart to fall for the fact twisting deceptions and denials of Republican extremists.

Comment by The Logician on 2/01/12 at 9:03 pm

Quote: “Tobin is right about one thing: the fact that there was no surge in Jewish Republican primary voters doesn’t guarantee the 2012 Jewish support for Obama.”

Hahaha!  Oh, thanks for the belly laugh.  Whew!  I needed that.

Shmuel - Jews will be voting for Obama no matter what!  Hezb’allah, Hamas, and Iran could each light off a nuke in the middle of Diezengoff, OWS could be filled with nothing but anti-Semites castigating Jews, Jeremiah Wright could go off on one of his tangents with his buddy Farrakhan and the Jews would still vote for any Democrat.

Sheesh!

Comment by Grantman on 2/02/12 at 7:45 am

@Dr. Loeb, exit polling is a very common occurrence, and rather useful.  While those polled certainly have the right to lie, and some will refuse to answer voting and demographic questions, they have none-the-less proven rather useful in understanding the voting trends of different groups over time, and have indeed proven, to some degree, predictive.  That said, when only 1% of the group in question is part of the data, any information gleaned from that group has to come with a significant grain of salt.  That number itself is well within the margin of error, so trying to understand anything within the demographic is probably not useful.

Comment by Jared Baker on 2/02/12 at 11:34 am

Grantman—

Your blind support for the evangelicals and extremist Republicans to defeat Obama is misguided.  Look up the New Apostolic Reformation and how they see Jews as the main obstacle to the second coming of Christ and how they want a Christian government in the US.

No one could do Israel more damage than these people who campaign against Obama except Iran and embarrassing Jews like you who cling to your hatreds and take comfort in being the victim and blaming the wrong people responsible for your perceived persecution.

Belly laugh needed?  Also have your head examined.  A colonoscopy might find it located below your belly laugh.

Comment by The Logician on 2/02/12 at 11:39 am

Logician - come down to earth, buddy.  Where is my blind support as you described?  Whatever I said has nothing whatsoever to do with whatsoever the New Apostolic Reformation, whatever the heck they are.

What hatreds am I expressing?  What persecution?  Dude - what the heck are you talking about?

I was only using a bit of hyperbole to say that Obama and the Democrats have the Jewish vote locked up and no matter what, an infitesimal number will ever vote Republican.

Where did all this animosity come from towards a complete stranger?

Sheesh!

Comment by Grantman on 2/03/12 at 12:10 pm

Granbtman—

Sorry if I misreaqd the tone of your posting.  I am overly sensitive to the Jewish Obama-haters who think he is anti-Israel because he is trying to treat Arabs like adults more than any politician to date.

And that is a hard thing to do, but he took the high road.

This site is filled with lunatic Rightists, and I am sorry if I took you for one.

Comment by The Logician on 2/06/12 at 10:57 am

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