House Prediction update: 22 Jewish legislators‎

We had to remove candidate Laura Ruderman (WA-01), following her loss in the ‎Democratic primary. Signs of Ruderman’s probable defeat came in recent polls, and ‎she came third yesterday in the Democratic primary. Thus, the number of possible ‎House additions went down to a projected +3 to +4.

CA-47 is still listed by Cook as “likely Democratic”. But candidate Alan Lowenthal ‎is being out-financed by Republican opponent Gary DeLong. The two will be meeting ‎on Thursday for a debate, or something of the sort. Polling is tricky: a GOP-sponsored ‎poll showed a close race, but an automated Democratic poll showed Lowenthal was ‎leading by more than ten percent.

Brad Schneider (IL-10) is running a close race against incumbent Robert Dold.

Rabbi Shmuley Boteach (NJ-09) doesn’t seem to have much chance against Bill Pascrell.

We’ve covered AZ-09 quite extensively in recent days and weeks. But no matter ‎what one might think about Kyrsten Sinema’s Israel policies – her fundraising is in ‎great shape, and she’s the front-runner according to various reports:

The Democratic field is crowded with three up-and-coming stars, while the ‎universal description of the GOP field is “weak” and enthusiasm lags. Both ‎parties have much at stake in the Aug. 28 primary - and early voting begins ‎Thursday. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has ‎emerged as the frontrunner. Democrats cannot agree, however, on which other ‎candidate poses the strongest threat to her in the primary - former state party ‎Chairman Andrei Cherny or state Senate Minority Leader David Schapira.

It means that this race, in which two Jewish candidates are running, is more than likely ‎to end up being a race with no Jewish candidate (and no, we do not mean to suggest ‎that there’s a problem with that – not at all).‎

A Jewish candidate will certainly emerge victorious in FL-22, as both the Republican ‎and Democratic candidates are Jewish. The race ranking of the Cook Report has ‎changed though, from “Toss Up” to “Lean Dem”, making Lois Frankel the most likely ‎new Jewish House member from this district.‎

David Cicilline (RI-01), however, may be in trouble. Of all the incumbent Jewish ‎House members he seems the least likely to come back next year. He is spending a lot, ‎the polls aren’t pretty, and pundits are asking why Washington Democrats “apparently ‎made no effort to push Congressman David Cicilline to retire and allow a more ‎popular candidate to run in the 1st District”.

Our new Jewish House Projection: 20-22 legislators. For the detailed report, click here.

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