Jewish Journal


House Jewish Projection

by Shmuel Rosner

October 17, 2013 | 6:26 am

Latest update: September 10, 2014

Fall is here, and the 2014 elections are right around the corner.

We currently assume that 2014 is going to be another year of Jewish congressional decline. With the expected retirements and losses (including recent primary losses of Eric Cantor, Marjorie Margolis in PA, Adam Kwasman in AZ, and Jewish candidates in CA-33) we put our projection at 20 Jewish representatives. The chances of seeing a Republican House member are not great, but if  Zeldin can pull it off in New York, or Carr in California, maybe there will be someone replacing Cantor as the sole Jewish Republican representative.



Here is the updated table of Jewish candidates (remember, we only count Jewish candidates who are likely to get in or who are running in tossup districts where the outcome is unclear)-


Safe Jewish incumbent

Struggling Jewish incumbent

Jewish candidates


Susan Davis (D-CA-53)

Brad Schneider (D-IL-10)

Andrew Romanoff (D-CO-6)

Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13) – lost in gubernatorial race

Alan Lowenthal (D-CA-47)


Lee Zeldin (R-NY-01)

Henry Waxman (D-CA-33)

Adam Schiff (D-CA-28)


Elan Carr (CA-33)

Eric Cantor (R-VA-07)

Brad Sherman (D-CA-30)




Jared Polis (D-CO-02)




Ted Deutch (D-FL-21)




Lois Frankel (D-FL-22)




Alan Grayson (D-FL-09)




Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL-23)




Jan Schakowsky (D-IL-09)




John Yarmuth (D-KY-03)




Sander Levin (D-MI-09)




Eliot Engel (D-NY-16)




Steve Israel (D-NY-03)




Nita Lowey (D-NY-17)




Jerrold Nadler (D-NY-10)




David Cicilline (D-RI-01)




Steve Cohen (D-TN-09)

















* In Bold: candidates with good chance of winning.


Notes on some of the races:


JTA's Ron Kampeas counts "a likely 19" Jewish representatives in his article from Sep. 9. I don't know why he is skeptical about the prospects of one of the three new candidates to make it into the House - we are still sticking to our projection of 20 for now. His article doesn't really deal with the numbers, though - it just talks about how they will clearly decline. Kampeas attempts to understand what the dwindling numbers mean: "Jewish lawmakers have traditionally been the first stop for Jewish lobbyists seeking inroads for their issues, including Israel, preserving the social safety net, and keeping church and state separate. Additionally, lawmakers generally seek guidance from colleagues most invested in an issue. Fewer Jewish lawmakers means the community could lose influence in areas where its voice has been preeminent".

Adam Kwasman (AZ-01) lost his primary battle to represent the GOP and was eliminated from our list of candidates. Two weeks ago, the voters were notified that Kwasman has cancer. The race was close – really close. It doesn't make much different: another Jewish candidate is going home.

Brad Schneider (IL-10) is one of the "10 most vulnerable" House members according to the Washington Post. And now he will be running not just against his opponent Bob Dold, but also against Michael Bloomberg. The Hill reports that Bloomberg is going to give Dold some money for his tight campaign to unseat Schneider.

Those awaiting the next Republican Jewish representative in the House might not want to count on the chances of Lee Zeldin (NY-01) to beat his opponent. According to a recent poll, Zeldin is far behind. Or maybe they can still count on him? "On the surface [Bishop] looks strong, but at the same time you have a district where a two-to-one margin of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction," said Donald P. Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute. "To have a challenger within 10 points in September certainly says this is a competitive race."

In CA-33, Republican Elan Carr and Democratic rival Ted Lieu have advanced to the general election. They are battling to replace Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman. Lieu was endorsed by Waxman. Carr came first on primary day. The Weekly Standard seems to believe in Carr's candidacy:

Sonenshein notes that Carr’s first-place finish in the primary is somewhat misleading, since there were several Democratic candidates splitting the vote—the top four left-leaning candidates together got 61 percent of the vote—and Lieu isn’t seriously flawed in a way that would give an easy opening. Plus, Republicans are not very popular in the district. “But,” says Sonenshein, “it’s a district with a very strong Jewish population, which leans heavily Democratic. By virtue of being Jewish and also presumably socially moderate enough for the district,” Carr will at least earn consideration from voters. “Without that, I don’t even think he’s in the discussion.



Note to readers: If you want to correct any errors, or think we've missed a candidate or a race, please contact us at rosnersdomain@gmail.com.



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