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Counting mandates, counting Jews

by Shmuel Rosner

December 27, 2012 | 7:38 am

Benjamin Netanyahu addressing the Likud Central Committee in Tel Aviv, October 29, 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

1.

We've updated our Israel Poll Trend tracker, and guess what? Netanyahu is still going to be Israel's next prime minister. While political campaigns and battles are what Israelis are now busy with and talking about, the graph of the political blocs is resistant to change. Changes, though, are evident within the blocs, as one can see not in the graph of blocs but in the table of recent polls. Such changes will not have much impact on who will be the next prime minister – but they are likely to impact two things: the way the future coalition is construed and the stability of that future coalition.

2.

Our 2014 Senate Jewish Projection must change with the appointment of Hawaii's Lt. Governor Brian Schatz to the Senate. Schatz is going to replace the late Senator Daniel Inouye. He is Jewish, and "indicated" that he intends to run in 2014 to capture the seat he has now been handed. So this raises the current number of Jewish Senators from 10 to 11. And makes us raise the number of 2015 projected Senators from 9 to 10.

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