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Can anyone threaten another Netanyahu term?

by Shmuel Rosner

October 15, 2012 | 12:59 pm

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: Reuters)

The new installment of Rosner’s Domain Israel Poll Trends is based on a barrage of polls unprecedented in Israel: Seven new polls in just three days following the decision to hold new elections in 100 days or so. The trend tracker, built exclusively for our J Meter by Israel’s most prominent poll expert, Prof. Camil Fuchs, is the best tool with which to follow political blocs in Israel. And tracking the blocs is tracking the coalition. And tracking the coalition is tracking the next government.

So what do we have in our new Poll Trend tracker?

We have a right-religious bloc that is still way ahead of the center-left bloc.

We have a prime minister with a very good chance of keeping his job.

And we have a question: Can anyone dethrone Netanyahu and change or reverse the current trend?

 

Answering these questions fully is not yet possible, as the major candidates to attempt such a January surprise – former prime minister Ehud Olmert and former foreign minister Tzipi Livni – have not yet made their intentions clear. In fact, while earlier reports seemed to suggest that an Olmert revival is imminent, recent reports indicate that he (and Livni) may not run. And without them, the chance of a Netanyahu defeat diminishes even further. But what if Olmert does run? Can he beat Netanyahu? Take a look at our Poll Trend tracker for the answer, or something resembling the beginning of an answer.

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