March 7, 2012 | 10:06 am
NEW ON ROSNER’S DOMAIN: Tracking Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval rating.
We will be following the fortunes of the prime minister, based on a range of surveys of the Israel population, and with numbers crunched by veteran pollster Camil Fuchs.
In the polls conducted during the last two months of 2011, following the release of Gilad Shalit, Netanyahu’s approval rates remained consistently positive for the first time in more than 18 months.
The prime minister took credit for the relative strength of the Israeli economy, especially as compared to the situation in Europe. Furthermore, he kept Iran’s nuclear armament as a main issue in the public discourse, and managed to convince the Israeli population that he can be trusted to deal with this matter better than any rivals. At the same time, a series of non-democratic laws, which are acceptable to the general public, have added to Netanyahu’s popularity.
Finally, Netanyahu’s approval ratings have benefitted from the weakness of the opposition, and from the fact that although the Kadima party currently holds the majority of the seats in the Knesset (28 seats), polls show that its popularity has shrunk considerably, and today would receive half of the number of seats.
For the majority of the time, Netanyahu’s approval ratings were “negative”. The remarkable events that pushed his approval ratings to “positive” were his meetings with President Obama (in which Netanyahu was perceived in Israel as being steadfast in his opinions), the Gaza flotilla event, the tragic fire in Mount Carmel, the prime minister’s speech to US Congress, and the release of Gilad Shalit. The remarkable events which pushed his approval rating down to “negative” - with a spread of about -15% - were the gas price hike and the social protests and demonstrations.
How the ranking is determined
The index is primarily based on published polls from four media sources: Dialog-Haaretz; the Panels Institute; Channel 10 television and the Dahaf Institute. We will add relevant polls from other sources as we go along.
The wording of the relevant question in the Dialog-Haaretz and Channel 10 polls was, “Do you approve or disapprove of Benjamin Netanyahu’s performance as Prime Minister?” (the literal translation from the Hebrew version is “satisfied” and “not satisfied”, rather than “approve” and “disapprove”).
The Panel polls asked the respondents to grade the prime minister’s performance on a scale of 1 to 10. The Dahaf polls asked the respondents to evaluate the prime minister’s performance using five categories: very good, good, mediocre, bad and very bad.
The two linear regression models were fitted to the Panels and the Dahaf polls’ data, with the response variable being the proportions of the dichotomous variable with the categories “approve” and “disapprove”.
The plotted data contains a combination of results from both individual polls and from averages of several polls as follows:
12.18.13 at 8:13 am | According to recent polls, the parties that form. . .
12.18.13 at 4:01 am | We bring you a daily round-up of the interesting. . .
12.17.13 at 7:58 am | A few more comments on the Swarthmore-Hillel. . .
12.17.13 at 4:06 am | Headlines & Reads: ASA Approves Israel Boycott. . .
12.16.13 at 8:07 am | Can you really blame a Middle Eastern government. . .
12.16.13 at 4:10 am | Headlines & Reads: Death Toll Rises in Syria. . .
12.12.13 at 8:05 am | Does Hillel really have to let BDS supporters to. . . (885)
12.16.13 at 8:07 am | Can you really blame a Middle Eastern government. . . (505)
12.11.13 at 7:28 am | The first part of an exchange with Dr. Howard. . . (219)
We welcome your feedback.
Your information will not be shared or sold without your consent. Get all the details.
JewishJournal.com has rules for its commenting community.Get all the details.
JewishJournal.com reserves the right to use your comment in our weekly print publication.
Jewish Ideas Daily
NY Jewish Week
Public Policy Polling
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The Cook Report
The Jewish Channel
The Jewish Forward
The Monkey Cage
The Washington Institute for NE Policy
Walter Russell Mead