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March 22, 2012 | 1:24 pm
Senate Jewish Projection
Latest update, March 2013:
Following Carl Levin's retirement announcment, only two Jewish senators will be facing reelection in 2014: one whose seat will be seriously contested and one who will be 90 years old come 2014. So minus 2 or 3 would be a reasonable projection (that is, unless a replacement for the retiring/losing candidates will also be Jewish, and that's a reasonable possibility).
2012 was not a good year for new Jewish candidates. All three prospective candidates suffered narrow losses. 2014 is expected (at this point) to be a Republican year – and these usually aren't good years for Jewish candidates. Moreover, most of the states in which a battle is likely to be waged are not Jewishly promising. Hence, at this very early stage we'll put our projection for the 2015 Senate at 10 Jewish senators – one short of the number of Jewish members in the 2013 Senate (this includes the late addition of Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz).
Facing reelection in 2014:
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ): Won in 2008 by 14 points. Facing reelection in 2014. He will be more than 90 years old, but polls still show that toppling him won't be easy. "There is no other possible Senate retirement that sparks more speculation and uncomfortable feelings".
Al Franken (D-MN): Won in 2008 by 0.09 points. Facing reelection in 2014. By some accounts, Franken's seat is going to be vigorously contested by the GOP with a possible Jew vs. Jew rematch between him and Republican Norm Coleman.
New Candidates 2014:
Brian Schatz (D-HI): Was appointed in late 2012 to succeed the late Senator Daniel Inouye, and indicated that he will run for the seat at the 2014 election.
Retiring:
Carl Levin- The veteran Senator from Michigan has recently anounced he will be retiring in 2014.
Facing reelection in 2016:
Chuck Schumer (D-NY): Won in 2010 by 34 points. Facing reelection in 2016
Ron Wyden (D-OR): Won in 2010 by 18 points. Facing reelection in 2016
Barbara Boxer (D-CA): Won in 2010 by 10 points. Facing reelection in 2016
Richard Blumenthal (D-CT): Won in 2010 by 12 points. Facing reelection in 2016
Facing reelection in 2018:
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): Won in 2012 by 25 points, facing reelection in 2018
Ben Cardin (D-MD): Won in 2012 by 28 points, facing reelection in 2018
Bernie Sanders (I-VT): Won in 2012 by 46 points, facing reelection in 2018
More from the J Meter
Jewish Senate, Jewish House projections
September 6, 2012 | 7:04 am
Two Jewish incumbents are retiring from the Senate, three are running in an apparently safe seat, and three candidates have a low chance of winning.
Ulysses Grant and the Jewish vote, and its 2012 parallels
April 9, 2012 | 4:41 am
Dr. Jonathan Sarna, Professor of American Jewish History at Brandeis University, discusses his new book When General Grant Expelled the Jews.
The best representative of American Jewish values (guess who?)
April 4, 2012 | 8:32 am
A new survey of American Jewish voters contains some unsurprising findings, but also one or two points that might raise an eyebrow.
Do we now have proof that Jews are trending Republican?
February 3, 2012 | 6:05 am
A new PEW Forum analysis shows Jews 'have moved noticeably in the Republican direction; Jewish voters favored the Democrats by a 52-point margin in 2008 but now prefer the Democratic Party by a significantly smaller 36-point margin.'
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