January 20, 2013 | 9:46 am

Going up Going Down, Still the Only Game in Town

Posted by Shmuel Rosner

Updated: June 10, 2013

Some four months since the elections and two and a half months since the formation of the new government, our Israel Poll Trends tracker is back, monitoring Israeli polls and giving you a glimpse into Israel's infamously erratic political climate.

At this point in time, seeing that this isn't an election year (or so we think), we've decided not to burden you with too many details and to focus instead on the major parties, on the political blocs, and on the Netanyahu-Lapid (that is Likud vs. Yesh Atid) rivalry.

Below that you can find a graph monitoring Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Binyamin Netanyahu's (Likud Beitenu) progress. Since the election, Lapid and his party were catapulted to the stratospheric number of 30 mandates, following the initial success of Lapid in achieving political goals such as keeping the Haredi parties out, and forcing Netanyahu into establishing the Likud-Lapid-Bennet coalition. The sudden ascendance was short lived, though, and followed by a crash. Lapid is the inherently unpopular Finance Minister now – a minister in charge of cuts, tax raises, and bad news. 

Don’t be too impressed with Yesh Atid’s rise and decline. The rise was an election aftershock and didn’t last because it wasn’t based on real convictions. The crash is also not as fatal as some might think: Lapid, more or less, crashed back to the number of mandates he won in the election. His supporters still don’t have great alternatives – Labor is not in good shape, Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua Party is almost gone in most polls. Thus, for a left of Likud voter who wants an alternative and not a hitch party, Yesh Atid is the only game in town.

Below the Likud-Lapid graph you can find a table with all the available Israeli polls since March and the number of projected mandates they give each major party and political bloc. Note that because of the complexities of the Israeli parliamentary system, our division of the projected votes by blocs is most valuable. Explanations about the composition of the blocs are right beneath the table.

All right: Likud Beiteinu+Habayit Hayehudi+Strong Israel

All center: Yesh Atid+Hatnua+Kadima

All left: Labor+Meretz+Hatnua

All religious: Jewih Home+Shas+Yahadut Hatorah+Am Shalem

All Arab: Hadash+Raam Taal+Balad

*Current Coalition:  Likud Beytenu+ Yesh Atid+ Habayit Hayehudi+Hatnua (currently 68 Mandates)

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