January 20, 2013 | 9:46 am
Updated: June 10, 2013
Some four months since the elections and two and a half months since the formation of the new government, our Israel Poll Trends tracker is back, monitoring Israeli polls and giving you a glimpse into Israel's infamously erratic political climate.
At this point in time, seeing that this isn't an election year (or so we think), we've decided not to burden you with too many details and to focus instead on the major parties, on the political blocs, and on the Netanyahu-Lapid (that is Likud vs. Yesh Atid) rivalry.
Below that you can find a graph monitoring Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Binyamin Netanyahu's (Likud Beitenu) progress. Since the election, Lapid and his party were catapulted to the stratospheric number of 30 mandates, following the initial success of Lapid in achieving political goals such as keeping the Haredi parties out, and forcing Netanyahu into establishing the Likud-Lapid-Bennet coalition. The sudden ascendance was short lived, though, and followed by a crash. Lapid is the inherently unpopular Finance Minister now – a minister in charge of cuts, tax raises, and bad news.
Don’t be too impressed with Yesh Atid’s rise and decline. The rise was an election aftershock and didn’t last because it wasn’t based on real convictions. The crash is also not as fatal as some might think: Lapid, more or less, crashed back to the number of mandates he won in the election. His supporters still don’t have great alternatives – Labor is not in good shape, Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua Party is almost gone in most polls. Thus, for a left of Likud voter who wants an alternative and not a hitch party, Yesh Atid is the only game in town.
Below the Likud-Lapid graph you can find a table with all the available Israeli polls since March and the number of projected mandates they give each major party and political bloc. Note that because of the complexities of the Israeli parliamentary system, our division of the projected votes by blocs is most valuable. Explanations about the composition of the blocs are right beneath the table.
All right: Likud Beiteinu+Habayit Hayehudi+Strong Israel
All center: Yesh Atid+Hatnua+Kadima
All left: Labor+Meretz+Hatnua
All religious: Jewih Home+Shas+Yahadut Hatorah+Am Shalem
All Arab: Hadash+Raam Taal+Balad
*Current Coalition: Likud Beytenu+ Yesh Atid+ Habayit Hayehudi+Hatnua (currently 68 Mandates)
January 17, 2013 | 10:07 am
Netanyahu would like to add Lapid or Livni or both to the coalition, but his problem is obvious: Lapid and Livni both lead parties with members who are very critical of the prime minister’s presumed foot-dragging on the peace process.
January 10, 2013 | 5:47 pm
Here's the apparent paradox: the spread between the two blocs is as wide as ever, but the pundits and the statisticians constantly warn Israelis that the actual election outcome might be noticeably different than the projected outcome.
January 10, 2013 | 9:51 am
The percentage of undecided or uncertain Israeli voters – namely, the number of people still willing to reconsider their positions – is quite significant. So what does it mean?
January 1, 2013 | 6:58 pm
How can Netanyahu be happy when the party of his dreams, the great merged Likud-Beitenu is, ailing and bleeding mandates?
January 1, 2013 | 9:24 am
This week, we chronicle the dramatic decline of Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman's Likud-Beiteinu Party.
Jewish Ideas Daily
NY Jewish Week
Public Policy Polling
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The Cook Report
The Jewish Channel
The Jewish Forward
The Monkey Cage
The Washington Institute for NE Policy
Walter Russell Mead