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Four Jews, Two Opinions

Three out of four Jews favor Vice President Al Gore over Texas Gov. George W. Bush for president, according to a survey released this week by the American Jewish Committee (AJC).
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November 2, 2000

Three out of four Jews favor Vice President Al Gore over Texas Gov. George W. Bush for president, according to a survey released this week by the American Jewish Committee (AJC).The same AJC survey found that 59 percent of Jews identify themselves as Democrats. Independents amount to 30 percent and Republicans 9 percent (memo to AJC: What are the remaining 2 percent, Bull Moose?)

That means Gore is attracting Jewish conservatives and independents, something our own reporting over the past campaign has borne out.

This precious example of Jewish unity begs a question: Why Gore? He is, the pundits keep telling us, dull as a post and just as wooden, as charismatic as a textbook, and – horror of horrors – a politician who exaggerates.

He and Bush also make similar pronouncements on their commitment to Israel and the peace process, such as it is. You could reshuffle their Israel sentiments, toss them up in a room, and Jews would be hard pressed to pick who said what.

In a race that has the country pretty much split down the middle, why are Jews so undivided?The glib answer is that Jews traditionally, blindly vote Democrat. Eighty percent voted for Bill Clinton in 1992, and his support among Jews remained high even during the impeachment debacle. But there are numerous examples to counter this, including the strong Jewish turnout for Republicans from Ronald Reagan (at least 30 percent) to our own mayor, Richard Riordan, who is estimated to have garnered close to 50 percent of the Jewish vote.

Another possible answer is the Lieberman Factor, the opportunity for Jews to help elect the first Jewish vice president. Jewish Republicans aren’t saying whether they’re swinging the other way for the thrill of seeing a Jew next in line for the White House. But if they are voting Democrat, I suspect the reasons are not simply Joe Lieberman’s religion.

There are two areas where Jewish voters feel most comfortable with Gore: experience and ideology.Granted, both Gore and Bush are heirs to fortune and status. But Jews, who have benefited from the American meritocracy, like to see it reflected in their leaders. Beginning with a stint in uniform in Vietnam, Gore has devoted decades of public service to be where he is today. He seems to have cultivated a complex, forceful and wide-ranging set of opinions on issues from the environment to defense spending to entitlement programs. His foreign affairs experience far exceeds Bush’s. Simply put, his résumé is more impressive.

In the mind of Jewish voters, the holes in Bush’s résumé aren’t necessarily filled by the actions of his father, whose administration was more confrontational with Israel than Clinton/Gore.

The other issue is ideology. More than Lieberman’s religion makes Jews proud, Bush’s has Jews worried. Whoever becomes president will choose at least two or more Supreme Court justices, not to mention hundreds of district court and federal appeals judges. A woman’s right to choose an abortion is clearly at stake in this election. The question most Jews have is what Bush policy choices will bear the stamp of the Christian right. It might not be a fair question in a race where the Democratic vice presidential candidate has made his own faith-based policy pronouncements, but so be it.

Bush’s Jewish supporters, of course, see this race differently, and they have been a vocal minority. Their man, in the words of Bruce Bialosky, is “moderate, forthright, honest and smart.” Their challenge has been convincing fellow Jews that with those qualities and his record, George W. Bush should be the next president of the United States.

Barry Rubin’s Crystal Ball

When there is trouble in Israel, the experts blow in from the east, like a hamsin. Prof. Barry Rubin of Tel Aviv is among the most impressive. He was preceded by one of those C.V.s that make Jewish mothers weep: fellowships at Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, Tel Aviv and Hebrew universities, among several; a Fulbright, a Guggenheim; author of eight recent books, among them, “The Transformation of Palestinian Politics” (Harvard University Press); editor of two journals and Middle East columnist for The Jerusalem Post. When I met him, he was, understandably, exhausted.

He was somewhere in the middle of a tour that has him crisscrossing the continent speaking to Jewish and non-Jewish audiences, journalists and leaders about what is happening back home.

“We don’t have anything to be ashamed of,” Rubin began, referring to Jews who support Israel’s role in the now-mutilated peace process. “Our conscience is clear. The Palestinian leadership suffered from a loss of nerve and decided to strengthen their hand at the negotiating table through violence.”

It is an old and common mistake of Yasser Arafat’s, said Rubin, based on two erroneous ideas: 1) that some outside force will hand the Palestinians their state, and 2) that Israel is weak and will withdraw and give up.Arafat could escalate the war. There are an estimated 40,000-70,000 guns in the hands of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and no more than 300, Rubin said, have been actually fired. Arafat understands that Israelis firing on stone-throwing children will garner him more international sympathy than if Palestinians were to shoot back. And he knows that an Israeli tank, missile and artillery response in an actual shooting war would quickly destroy his duchy.

As Rubin tours Canada and the States, he has come to see Intifada II as a kind of watershed for younger Jews, whose support for Israel has yet to be tested against the complex, bloody realities of the Middle East conflict. “The question is, do they want to stick with the Jewish people in a time of need, when it is not so popular?” In Toronto, he met one college student who plunged into the midst of an anti-Israel demonstration and pulled out a burning Israeli flag. The answer to his question, he said, seems to be yes.

So what will be? The Palestinians seem to be intoxicated both by the violence and by the international sympathy: they will not let up any time soon. The outbreak, in any case, has made it impossible for Israelis to pick up negotiations where they left off. But then? Rubin sighed. “We will be lucky if, five years from now, we’re back where we were five weeks ago.”

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