Drained and delegitimized by the Syrian civil war, penetrated by Israeli intelligence and separated from traditional allies, the Lebanese group Hezbollah’s self-proclaimed glory days of 2006, when it went to war with Israel, have never seemed so distant.
Supporting President Bashar Assad’s war against his people has put Hezbollah under unprecedented strain. Since its involvement began, the group has lost hundreds of fighters. For a relatively small outfit — Hezbollah’s core military force is a few thousand strong — these losses have a significant impact. Nevertheless, amid all the killing, Hezbollah’s most serious loss in Syria has been its reputation. With hundreds of thousands murdered in Syria — starved, poison-gassed and barrel-bombed — Hezbollah’s direct complicity with Assad has been noticed. After all, while Hezbollah has long claimed to defend “all the oppressed,” including Sunnis, Syria’s wreckage testifies to the group’s duplicity. Put simply, after witnessing Hezbollah kill Syrian Sunnis, other Sunnis view its claims of beneficence skeptically. Even the Sunni militant group Hamas has moved away from Hezbollah; a poor relationship emphasized by Hezbollah’s unwillingness to open a northern front during last summer’s Israel-Hamas war.
For “the Party of God,” this reputational damage is a big problem. Both a militant group and a political actor in the traditional sense, Hezbollah needs political consensus to advance its agenda. For a long time, Hezbollah’s hostility against Israel won it friends across the political spectrum, but now that it’s targeting Muslims, the well of diplomacy is evaporating. As Hezbollah’s intolerance for satire suggests, the group is deeply uncomfortable with challenges to its identity narrative as Lebanon’s pious, paternalistic guardian.
The Syrian civil war is the greatest challenge this narrative has ever faced, but there are challenges at home as well.
Hezbollah’s Lebanese political identity has been polluted by the way it has taken up arms to carry out Iran’s foreign policy by fighting on Assad’s behalf. Up until now, Hezbollah’s semi-independence has given the group flexibility to forge coalitions in Beirut.
But with other Lebanese political leaders now taking a tougher line against the group, things might be changing. Facing Islamic State fighters in Syria who are threatening northeastern Lebanon and increasing sectarian violence at home, Lebanese politics are hardening into more pronounced sectarian identities and greater paranoia. While Hezbollah hopes its military power will incentivize domestic alliances, it knows being outmaneuvered is a real risk.
The pain doesn’t end there.
Hezbollah is also hurting for another reason: its operational security collapse over the past few years. A senior commander was killed by a car bomb in 2008, another assassinated in December 2013 and new reports suggest another group of Hezbollah officers were recently identified as assets of the Israeli secret service, Mossad. This has surely shaken nerves in Hezbollah’s executive leadership.
Still, Hezbollah has one sign of hope. With the Obama administration so intent on making a deal with Iran, it’s unlikely that the United States will encourage political maneuvering against it.
More news and opinions than at a Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.