Marty Kaplan

July 11, 2011

The “Obama’s brilliant strategy” theory

By Marty Kaplan

Tweet

Share

If you voted for Obama, here’s what you’re not supposed to be thinking:

He turns out to be a lousy poker player.  He negotiates with himself.  He thinks compromise takes only one to tango.  He imputes good will to lethal adversaries.  He allows them define the turf he fights on.  He lets them keep moving the goalposts.  He has no stomach for combat and no instinct for the jugular. Huge majorities want him to hang tough on the stands that got him elected, but he doesn’t have the belly fire to call out his opponents and rally the country to his side.  He believes that reason is kryptonite to bullies.  He misses Larry Summers.  He doesn’t want Tim Geithner to go.  He’s confident that the CEO of GE has the best interests of the American worker at heart.  He actually likes John Boehner.

It’s understandable that his 2008 base might be waking up with those night sweats.  It’s not lefty fanaticism to imagine that the health care bill would have turned out stronger if his opening position was the public option he campaigned on, instead of the deals with the drug industry and the for-profit hospital lobby that he made at the outset.  In the 2010 lame duck session, when he signed on to a “temporary” two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts on the rich, you didn’t have to be a liberal ideologue to wonder whether an FDR-like use of the bully pulpit could have won a better deal.

But nothing has tested the loyalty of Obama voters more than the current negotiations to raise the debt limit.  In the wake of the Ryan plan to end Medicare – wildly popular with Republican legislators, and wildly unpopular with Americans – the administration has bafflingly sabotaged its sharpest contrast with the GOP by putting Medicare on the bargaining table.  And Social Security, too, even though it has nothing to do with the debt ceiling, or even the deficit.  And while Republicans keep upping their spending cut demands by hundreds of billions of dollars, the president has pre-emptively abandoned any attempt to restore Clinton-era tax rates on millionaires, another lopsidedly popular proposal among Americans, and he has instead bought in to his opponents’ narrative that the reason American businesses are sitting on trillions of dollars of cash is because they lack “certainty” about future tax policy.

One way to banish these blues is to believe that Obama actually has some awesome super-secret strategy going on. He’s playing the long game; he’s a master of eleven-dimensional chess; we’re just too shortsighted to grok his Vulcan genius.  Only in retrospect will we get it.  But since most of us mortals are stuck in the present, here are three theories about what he might turn out to have been doing today. 

The second First 100 Days.  It’s all about independents.  The next presidential election will come down to winning 50.1 percent of the 15 or so percent of independent voters in the handful of 2012 swing states.  We know from opinion polls what those voters say they want.  Stop the partisan bickering.  Solve the nation’s problems.  Make the tough choices.  “Eat your peas,” as Obama said at his Monday press conference.  Sure, his 2008 base may not like the idea that a few hundred thousand people who don’t know what side they’re on count more to the White House than they do.  But if he’s to be re-elected next year, it’s more important that independents think Obama is willing to compromise with Republicans this year than it is to stop the Bush tax cuts from gutting student aid, food safety, environmental protection, medical research, infrastructure, Head Start and the rest of the GOP hit list.  How can Obama reverse those losses if he isn’t re-elected?  In his second term, he’ll finally be free to be the guy we saw that night in Grant Park. 

Win the blame game.  When voters realize how recklessly extreme the Republican Party has become, they’ll abandon it.  Sure, if the U.S. defaults, or even if the recovery just stalls, the Republicans will say it’s Obama’s fault, and they’ll have right-wing cable, talk radio and unlimited corporate-funded attack ads to echo them.  But calling Republicans economic terrorists, saying they’re holding the economy hostage, is a weak endgame for Obama, if ultimately – to prevent catastrophe – he’ll have to fold.  That’s why he’s doubled down and proposed a “grand bargain.”  It’s so visionary, so courageous and patriotic and post-partisan, that the Republicans’ rejection of it reveals what a rabid cult they’ve become, and how culpable they are for what misery may now follow.

Those theories are heartening.  Here’s one that’s not.

Right is the new center.  If only Nixon could go to China, then only Obama can move the Democratic Party far enough from its past to survive into the future.  This is a teachable moment.  It doesn’t matter that on the issues in this debt ceiling battle, Americans are 80-to-20 on the Democrats’ side.  Without a progressive tax code, entitlement spending is unsustainable, and without Wall Street’s support, no Democratic presidential candidate will be able raise enough campaign money to compete.  Republicans have pulled the center so far to the right, and their media demagoguery has so spooked public discourse, that making the case for government as a guarantor of justice, opportunity and decency is, like it or not, a losing proposition.  Choose heartbroken pragmatism over bitter idealism.  Don’t let the good deal you can’t get be the enemy of the only one you can.  Harsh?  Wake up and smell the Hannity. 

I can live with the thought that an independent in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin or Colorado will cast a vote that’s worth more than mine.  I can warm to the idea that putting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid on the table is a trick to trap Eric Cantor.  But I’d much rather believe that Obama is a bad poker player than the possibility that I’m the one being played.

Marty Kaplan is the Norman Lear professor of entertainment, media and society at the USC Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism.  Reach him at martyk@jewishjournal.com.

A version of this article appeared in print.

---

Post your comment below!

Click here to return to the homepage.

COMMENTS

We welcome your feedback. Comments may not exceed 700 characters.

Privacy Policy

Your information will not be shared or sold without your consent. Get all the details.

Terms of Service

JewishJournal.com has rules for its commenting community.Get all the details.

This essay is a masterpiece. So many words saying nothing. Though strong on creatity, this one is not a Pulitzer Prize winner.

Comment by Mini on 7/11/11 at 11:46 am

We elected a Republican in Democrat clothing.  He had both houses of congress before the 2008 election and created legislation that was anti the people and pro multimillionaires and big oil. We are fools!

Comment by Dan on 7/11/11 at 12:19 pm

Hahhahahaha! This is just great! My goodness, and I was thinking we missed something.
Thank you Marty Kaplan, you made my day!

Comment by José Manuel on 7/11/11 at 12:23 pm

I have a wild and crazy thought:  Why don’t you just admit that you made a TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE mistake in voting for this man in the first place in that BHO is putting our country at risk financially, militarally and otherwise and do everything you can to make sure that he doesn’t run again???

Comment by Roberta on 7/11/11 at 12:38 pm

“But I’d much rather believe that Obama is a bad poker player than the possibility that I’m the one being played.”

Sorry. You’re being played. And we told you so. The essence of the Democratic campaign was that Bush was a doofus surrounded by evil manipulators and henchmen, and that a smart, cool fresh 21st century candidate surrounded by the very finest progressive staff could reverse all of our real or imagined problems. When that didn’t happen, and the ‘blame Bush’ defense was overextended, we are now left with the incompetence defense. ‘Leave Barack Alone!’ Can’t you just admit you were wrong and Obama’s critics were right, starting from before the election?

Comment by Ben Plonie on 7/11/11 at 12:44 pm

‘Hope and change’ my ass! Pitooey!

Comment by PGelsman on 7/11/11 at 12:47 pm

You call that a Strategy? To paraphrase, and modernize, one of the strategic principles of the ancient laws of the Book of 5 Rings,
‘A war is won or lost before the first shot is fired based on the strategy employed.’
And, in business, success or failure, is established before the door is opened to the public based on its strategy.
Obama has had a majority of both houses, study groups and commissions but has done nothing. He is a great talker but does nothing. Did you watch his news conference this morning? All blame of others and all “I” “I” “I”—what a bore!

Comment by Richard Mann, PHD on 7/11/11 at 12:56 pm

Will we have Michelle Bachmann as our next President?  Can Obama get smart and do what’s right for our country? Can anyone suggest a way to get him back to what he promised and almost everyone in the country really would like to see him do?

Comment by Dan on 7/11/11 at 12:57 pm

After Obama, the bar has been lowered so far that it doesn’t matter who our next President is. Whoever can win. Obama is hopeless and changeless. Not only can’t he be relied upon but he can’t be trusted. All we can do for now is destroy the Democratic Congress in the next elections, repeal Obama’s damage, override his vetoes, do a proper forensic investigation of his birth certificate if one even exists, and convict as much of his administration as possible.

I think the opposition campaign motto might well be ‘Hope and Change!’

Comment by Ben Plonie on 7/11/11 at 1:43 pm

Marty K.  ham-fisted with metaphor as his tortured text. “Lousy poker player”? Hardly!

B.O. ranks one of the greatest poker-playing presidents ever! He convinced a nation to back his play while going “all in” with a busted flush. Problem is, our citizens looking then as now for chief executive, not a port-side card sharp.

Once upon a time FDR beguiled voters with a NEW DEAL. What’s the adage? Everything changes; every thing remains the same.  Auntie Mame

Comment by Mr. Againster on 7/11/11 at 3:36 pm

Put not your faith in Princes.

Comment by honeybee on 7/11/11 at 3:41 pm

We must reduce our spending and we must increase tax funds.  This means that both the Democrats and the Republican have to belly up to the bar.  We spent money in Iraq we did not have and Mr. Obama upped the expenses for Medicare with his Obama care without paying for it.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac wasted billions funding mortgages for people who could not pay the mortgage.  These follies have to be accounted for.

Comment by Aaron on 7/11/11 at 4:58 pm

You are assuming that Obama can wave a wand, and create policy.  We have a bunch of spoiled brats (on both sides of the aisle).  Obama is willing to show he can be a statesman…but when the GOP is hell bent on a “one term president” nothing he does will satisfy anyone.  So what is our choice….Bachman, Romney, and Santorum?  Give me a break…

Comment by Melissa Caplan Havard on 7/11/11 at 5:43 pm

After the 2008 Presidential campaign commenced, I was reminded of Nathaniel Hawthorne’s “Feathertop: A Moralized Legend,” published in 1852, probably a campaign squib. It is famous, of course. If Kaplan and the JJ readers bothered to Google the piece, it can be read online in 5 minutes. It is makes a telling point re Obama, who came along over a century later.

Comment by Jascha Kessler on 7/11/11 at 9:21 pm

Once again I am glad that someone out there gets it. Thank you Marty. I hope you sent a copy to the house on the hill.

Comment by Gilbert on 7/11/11 at 9:26 pm

JK
IIt explains at least why Obama can’t stop smoking.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 7/11/11 at 9:53 pm

Dan’s question was:
Can Obama get smart and do what’s right for our country? Can anyone suggest a way to get him back to what he promised and almost everyone in the country really would like to see him do?

Answer: Yes, go back to Chicago!

Comment by Bill on 7/11/11 at 10:20 pm

Marty states the truths perfectly as always.  our only hope is Obama’s “long game” after the 2012 election.  if that fails to materialize, the “Crash Course” scenario - by chris martenson will steamroll us all.

Comment by justin king on 7/12/11 at 12:49 am

Move on Jimmy Carter! You’re no longer the “Worst President Ever”

Comment by Hazan on 7/12/11 at 10:16 am

Justin K
Our only hope is Obama’s long-game? Why are we captive to Obama? Our only hope is for Obama to leave office, the sooner the better.

He is certainly bright and a good performer, but he obviously has not the slightest idea how to improve the country. Under Obama we have failed economically, diplomatically, militarily, socially, you name it. The country is lurching around bleeding from every pore strangling and suffocating. The only things keeping us alive are the ones he hasn’t touched. Maybe he can practice his megalomania on a video console after leaving office.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 7/12/11 at 10:38 am

the BIG answer = QE +  cut spending + raise taxes.  obama could do this.  the republicans - never !!  obama is the only pragmatic choice.  why dither with right -left politics when you can cut to the chase with pragmatism.  love him or hate him, obama is the only one capable of implementing this solution.  if you feel otherwise, you have somehow hobbled yourself with partisan self-delusion.

Comment by justin king on 7/12/11 at 9:38 pm

Or not. Obama and pragmatic do not belong in the same sentence. How about taking a look at why Rick Perry’s Texas economy grew fastest of all states and created more jobs than anyone else? How about considering that when Reagan cut taxes there were so many more taxpayers that IRS revenues increaed?

Comment by Ben Plonie on 7/12/11 at 9:55 pm

Yes they increased because he taxed the poor and unemployed

Comment by Malcolm Levine on 7/12/11 at 11:19 pm

No soap radio.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 7/12/11 at 11:36 pm

When there is no more Israel, your taxes double, Obamacare and death panels, no more 2nd amendment….would you then believe that you’ve been played?  July 11 and 26 will speak wonders of Obama’s credibility…as this is when then the UN votes on Palestine.

Comment by James on 7/13/11 at 3:38 pm

WHY IS THIS RANT IN JJ?

how recklessly extreme Republican Party has become 
they have right wing cable, talk radio & unlimited corporate-funded attack ads to echo them
he’s proposed a “grand bargain.” so visionary, so courageous & and patriotic and post-partisan, that Republicans’ rejection of it reveals what a rabid cult they’ve become, and how culpable they are for what misery may now follow

Republicans have pulled the center so far to the right, and their media demagoguery has so spooked public discourse, that making the case for government as a guarantor of justice, opportunity and decency is, like it or not, a losing proposition
Wake up and smell the Hannity 

Comment by LT COL HOWARD on 7/16/11 at 12:38 am

I agree with col. howard in every way.  i would recommend the book   FAIR AND BALANCED : MY ASS by joseph minton.  it’s the defining tratise on the insanity of Hannity and his idiotic brethren at FOXNEWS.  pure DISINFOTAINMENT   !!!!!!!!!

Comment by justin king on 7/16/11 at 6:14 am

right, right =  trEatise

Comment by justin king on 7/16/11 at 6:17 am

Hi Marty,  please use   FOXNEWS = DISINFOTAINMENT in some way in your upcoming blogs.  it’s the perfect fit.      justin king   australia

Comment by justin king on 7/16/11 at 6:48 am

PLEASE: LT. Col. Howard, Thou shall have not false gods before you!

Comment by Honey Bee on 7/16/11 at 7:18 am

@Jascha   do you mean Obama “change & hope was mfg by his handlers so that the Marty Kaplan’s of this world would see their own reflection and fall in love with it & romanticize &support; Obama?
Thou canst speak, darling.. cried Mother Rigby.. And what shalt thou say.. Art thou of the brotherhood of the empty skull, and demandest of me what thou shalt say? Thou shalt say a thousand things, and saying them a thousand times over, thou shalt still have said nothing! Be not afraid, I tell thee! When thou comest into the world … thou shalt not lack the wherewithal to talk. Talk! Why, thou shall babble like a mill-stream, if thou wilt. Thou hast brains enough for that

Comment by LT COL HOWARD on 7/16/11 at 11:57 am

We have entered the world where there can be no agreement on the facts; name calling is the order of the day because what is at stake is one version of Utopia. On the one side of the equation, the Democrats want open borders, maximums expensess paid for infrastructure, schooling, housing, medical care, food stamps, unemployment benefits, disability benefits and retirment payments to all citizens and to decimate our armed forces and to heavily tax the “rich.”  The Republicans want minimum governmental expenditures in the above except for foreign aid, armed forces and border patrol, to protect our borders and spread the taxes to all citizens.

Comment by Aaron on 7/16/11 at 5:57 pm

With these two opposite worlds, it is clear that we are not arguing facts or even reality.  This is a cultural war where the Marxists have changed their tactics by discussing investments (the government spends our money) and expandd government in all areas of our life.  Those who pay no taxes totally support the Democrates because it costs them nothing.  The government employees generally support the Democratics because they directly benefits from its programs.  The employed are out numbered and the corporations and the rich care to the extent that they will have to pay the cost of leaving the United States and setting up business or homes in countries that will not tax them to death.

Comment by Aaron on 7/16/11 at 6:01 pm

Wrangle on !  this is why the europeans and the asians always call the americans naive and juvenile. we are STILL debating yin & yang like it could be resolved.  you have to take each issue one at a time and be as pragmatic as possible without back-sliding into idiotic partisanship. too much philosophical intellectualizing can slow progress until you have this dangerous gridlock.

Comment by justin king on 7/16/11 at 9:35 pm

A message for the right-wing Jews : have you forgotten our history??  can’t you easily see that a right-wing Jew is the ultimate oxymoron??    intelligent Jews are stunned by your ignorance.

Comment by justin king on 7/16/11 at 10:11 pm

What is a “right wing” Jew?  It seems that when Mr. King disagree with someone, he calls that person names, which is not an argumentm as if it is an intelligent response.  Very weak.  That is what Stalin and Mao did before they killed millions of their opponents.  All of these responses are in response to an article where we have a president who believes that he can force his socialistic programs onto the American people.  Perhaps he can.  We will see.  If he is reelected he will probably win.

Comment by Aaron on 7/16/11 at 11:22 pm

Justin, I   read JJ to help me to understand how Jews think. I was respecting your comments ,until you began idiotic attacks on those you disagree with. You’re sounding like Hollywood Jeff and logicon both of whom have an inflated sense of self-importance. Eshman should not be allowed to be both the editor & columnist. Kaplan dwells in extreme leftist precincts. His over-the-top emotional attacks certainly exceed anything done by Glenn Beck who happens to be very pro-Israel. I find the Jewish Journal anything but Jewish. I find the liberal Jews and liberal rabbis to be more interested in left-wing Democratic Party causes than they are in their religion &  coreligionists

Comment by moderate Muslim on 7/16/11 at 11:46 pm

As report in the Washington Times:  “The devastation caused by Obamanomics is now undeniable. According to Investors Business Daily, 2 million net private-sector jobs have been lost; unemployment has increased by 1.5 percentage points; long-term unemployment is the worst ever on record; the dollar is 12 percent weaker; the number of Americans on food stamps has increased by 37 percent; the Misery Index (unemployment plus inflation) has increased by 62 percent; and the national debt has exploded by an alarming 40 percent. Mr. Obama is on pace to saddle America with more job-killing debt than all the first 43 presidents - combined.”

Comment by Aaron on 7/17/11 at 12:49 am

Most jews go to the liberal side because they are relatively well educated.  if people are well traveled, they will be even more liberal.  that is why the mainstream press in every part of the world is liberal.  these are facts, not my opinion.    to mod muslim ,  marty kaplan is a norman lear pragmatist and logician, not a leftist.  nor am i a religionist or leftist.    to aaron, your first long article was very good.  then you just had to bring in statistics. always a subjective science. always manipulated. you know that.

Comment by justin king on 7/17/11 at 2:24 am

Human beings hate hypocrisy and lies.  this is the central debate with the manipulation and lies,i.e.,  “fair and balanced” that foxnews finds itself constantly embroiled in.  until they say something like “we are conservative and proud of it”, there will be no rest from their opponents.  say anything you want, no matter how stupid, just don’t lie to me or be a hypocrite!!  but to foxnews, ratings trump decency.  this will be their eventual undoing.  obama could say something about it, why does’nt he??

Comment by justin king on 7/17/11 at 3:24 am

If traveling and being a Jew were the key to being a liberal, than all traveling Jews should be liberal.  I have traveled to South Korea, Japan, Israel, England (north and south), Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, France, Andora, Italy, Switzerland, and Holland.  I follow the international news to best I can.  The internet has helped that process.  I worked in Holland for two months.  I have lived with families in most of the countries I visited.

Comment by Aaron on 7/17/11 at 7:30 am

I have had foreign students live with me.  My children have visited foreign countries of their choice (Mexico, Spain, Western and Eastern Europe and Israel).  I have spent a total of three years in foreign lands.  I am neither liberal nor conservative; I am just interested in the truth and I do not get it in the liberal anti-Israel press (the Los Angeles Times, MSNBC or NPR for example). The Democratic party left me when Carter was president. His position on Israel since his retirement proved my point.

Comment by Aaron on 7/17/11 at 7:32 am

There is no fool like an over-educated Jew who falls for every idiot “liberal” idea that becomes popular. Including Jewish supporters of the natzis, who believed that because of their itelligence they would be spared!

Comment by Honey Bee on 7/17/11 at 11:25 am

As a Jew, I believe the following is true:  “Without G_d, there is no wisdom.”  This statement is quite complex since one has to determine when in the Torah G_d speaks.  The Rabbis have grappled with this notion for centuries, but is only in recent times when our liberal Rabbis believe they can ignore ancient wisdom and ignore our history to inform them of current events.  It is only through rational thought that we can have any hope of understanding.  I wish you all the best in your efforts to be rational and to recognize what is true and what is propaganda.

Comment by Aaron on 7/17/11 at 11:45 am

One of my close friends in LA says that the younger generation Jews get their news from Bill Maher and Jon Stewart.  One has to wonder how “fair and balanced” they are?

Comment by James on 7/17/11 at 12:59 pm

Most jews go to the liberal side because they are relatively well educated ..these are facts, not my opinion.” No, Justin , these are not fact. I was an FDR liberal. At 10 I was carrying around Democratic Party nominating petitions (illegal, but in Brooklyn if it was for the Democrats who cared?). My education includes B’klyn College (lib) and Harvard. I served in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations. I taught at two major universities. I was an active, left of center Democrat throughout my career. As I gained experience I grew more conservative. As an economist/engineer I seek effective solutions Marty Kaplan to me represents the hysterical approach which demonizes one’s opponents

Comment by HOWARD LAITIN on 7/17/11 at 1:06 pm

What was Lenin’s quote “Liberal are useful idiots”.

Comment by Honey Bee on 7/17/11 at 2:01 pm

I would think that intelligence would override idiocy, wouldn’t you?

Comment by James on 7/17/11 at 4:58 pm

Oh yeah? says you!!    lobbies now control the u.s.. why doesn’t someone talk about this? obama? who?  lobbyists have made a corporatocracy that is destroying main street and the the overall balance in general. a good book on this: CONFESSIONS OF AN ECONOMIC HITMAN by John Perkins.

Comment by justin king on 7/17/11 at 9:28 pm

Hip people understand squares. ////  squares do NOT understand hip people. ////  square republicans do NOT understand Marty Kaplan or Barack Obama.

Comment by justin king on 7/17/11 at 10:39 pm

Justin: apparently we all understand Marty Kaplan. It is just that we don’t respect his intellectual honesty or his judgment. His ex-wife Susan is also and in the pocket Democrat. However she knows how to work with other people. Apparently, Marty is a tyrant in the classroom and expects his every pronouncement to be taken as the gospel. Apparently you do. Unfortunately the facts are against you and him. Live with it!

Comment by CHRISTIAN SERVICE WORKER on 7/17/11 at 10:55 pm

I see michelle bachmann’s husband is “curing” gays with bible study and willpower. perfect!  /// do you think joe biden could pull his foot out of his mouth long enough to make hay with this type of nonsense? probably not.  the dems can’t keep wasting valuable stewart/colbert material and let these buffoons off the hook.  obama has certainly been guilty of letting golden opportunities fade away. he could bring up the idea of compulsory voting and watch the republicans sweat.etc..

Comment by justin king on 7/18/11 at 2:56 am

James:  Intelligence does not over-ride idiotcy.  Idiotcy is a talet all to its own.

Comment by Honney bee on 7/18/11 at 2:36 pm

My 2 cents on Obama…...It’s simple, really. We have to have structural entitlement reform, major spending cuts and no tax increase-retardants on economic growth to reverse our current course toward national bankruptcy, but Obama steadfastly remains on the wrong side of all these solutions.sd why would an educated person support that nonsense?

Comment by James on 7/18/11 at 10:31 pm

Justin, Obama is NOT hip…he is a buffoon who rarely tells the truth about anything.

Comment by James on 7/19/11 at 8:48 am

James: Well said

Comment by Honey Bee on 7/19/11 at 10:26 am

This leftist college America-hater Marty Kaplan doesn’t even take himself seriously, so why should any grown adult????

Comment by Rich on 8/20/11 at 5:04 pm

Barack Hussein Obama is a failure and does not deserve to be re-elected.

Comment by Rich on 8/23/11 at 6:48 pm

Post a Comment

Name:
Email:

Type the word you see below:

Comment:

Remember my personal information

Notify me of follow-up comments?