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September 27, 2008 | 5:17 pm

Can McCain fix his Palin problem?

Posted by Raphael J. Sonenshein

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Ever since the quick burst of celebrity that accompanied her surprise selection for the vice president numination, it’s been all downhill for Palin. 

Her public approval has been dropping steadily in recent weeks, and perhaps even more damaging has been the general sense in the political world that she is not remotely up for the job.  Her two television interviews, with Charles Gibson and then with Katie Couric, were beyond awful.  They were close to unwatchable.

And she’s become a light-night TV comedy staple.

I am a pretty solid softball player, and occasionally have dreamed of playing center field for the New York Yankees.  But I imagine that if I faced a major league pitcher throwing a fastball, I’d look about like Palin did.

The problem is that McCain gave almost no thought to his vice presidential selection.  Like many of things he has done in this campaign, it seems to have been done on impulse with the goal of shaking things up.  Now that the bloom has come off the rose, what does he do next?  He has until Thursday’s vice presidential debate to think of something, or to hope for a crisis that can require her to avoid the debate.  (Perhaps Alaska has to go on alert in case Russian President Putin flies over.  See what I mean about comedy?)

In the meantime, I can see where this is heading.  After the first presidential debate, Obama’s vice presidential choice Joe Biden was all over the news talking about the event.  Palin was nowhere to be seen.  She turned down interview requests.  But in recent days it hasn’t been hard to find Mitt Romney on the talk circuit supporting McCain.  Now of course lots of people thought that even though McCain apparently can’t stand Romney, that he would have been a better choice if anybody could have predicted the Wall Street meltdown.  Romney is big on economic stuff.

My sense is that the short term strategy will be to keep Palin in hiding as much as possible, and turn the functional role of vice presidential candidate over to Romney.  That way, the Republican base that loves Palin (although not as much as originally) won’t be mad and McCain can seem like he has a real running mate.

The implication will be that McCain and Romney will run things if McCain is elected, so don’t you worry your pretty little self about Palin.  Voters who are worried that she might become president will still worry.  The odds are that other key Republicans will fall in line to provide that support in Palin’s absence.

Now I don’t know how long this can work, especially if the Thursday debate is actually held, and if it is a catastrophe for Palin.  And if she does well, McCain can’t really hide her for the rest of the campaign.  There’s a lot at stake for Palin on Thursday, but expectations are so low that she might manage to get through it in better fashion than we think.

Another alternative that I think is at least possible is Palin’s exit from the ticket.  Easy come, easy go.  A non-vetted selection, no investment by the candidate.

So far, McCain’s campaign has been marked by wild roundhouse punches thrown in the late rounds looking for a “change of chemistry.”  Some work, some don’t.

The latest one, the attempt to get out of the first debate, was a dud.  But I could see him thinking that if Palin leaves (on her own accord, of course, to deal with a family issue) then the media will be fascinated by who takes her place. 

The replacement can’t be a pro choice moderate because the base will go nuts and might even spawn a third-party writein campaign.  It has to be somebody that the base will accept, and that is probably Romney.  This move can’t be made unless Romney agrees in advance to join the ticket.  He might even challenge Biden to a do-over of the vice presidential debate, or if it happens before Thursday, who knows?

There would have to be a lot of talk on the Republican right about this, comparable to the discussions that alerted McCain that he had better not choose a pro-choice running mate.

Don’t ask me if any of this makes sense, because trying to predict what McCain will do next is not only baffling to me, but probably to his own staff as well.

But I do think it’s a reasonable possibility that if Palin continues to head downhill that McCain will do something dramatic to get out of that situation.

The last presidential candidate with this kind of problem was George H.W. Bush and his vice president, Dan Quayle.  Bush took fierce criticism but hung on, and won handily even though later surveys found that Quayle did cost him votes.  But that was a traditional Republican campaign, businesslike and tough, and Bush simply decided to bear the cost of Quayle. 

We’ll see if that is the model adopted by McCain or if we are due for another Hail Mary.


Raphael J Sonenshein, a political scientist at Cal State Fullerton, is spending the semester as the Fulbright Tocqueville Distinguished Chair in American Studies at the University of Paris VIII.

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I wonder if they will ditch Palin and put someone else in there too.  A day or two before the debate.  If so, Palin will still have a tough time being that she has lost alot of her popularity in her native state due to her “troopergate” scandal.  She promised transparency, then did an about face.  Personally, it would scare the livin’ daylights out of me if she were the Veep.

Comment by sus on 9/27/08 at 5:59 pm

It would be good for America if McCain replaced Palin with Romney. With this economy meltdown, I don’t have any faith in McCain, Palin, Obama or Biden being able to fix it. It just isn’t their thing.

I personally like Palin and love her enthusiasm, but I don’t have confidence that she could fix this mess. If I needed a heart operation, I wouldn’t choose a doctor that necessarily smiled the most, but instead the most experienced that I could afford. Selecting a president or vice president shouldn’t be a popularity contest, but one who is the most qualified.

Comment by John S. on 9/27/08 at 6:14 pm

What a looser. Let’s hope for the country’s sake she bows out gracefully. McCain still has time to save his campaign

Comment by Rocket5 on 9/27/08 at 7:02 pm

PALIN IS A GOOD WOMAN BUT IS THE WORST VP CHOICE I COULD IMAGAINE.  Plain’s answers are seriously as bad as Miss Teen South Carolina’s (remember the viral video).  Ugh.  I think McCain is too prideful, though, to do before it’s too late what everyone I know thinks he should—dump Palin.  He also wants someone who doesn’t threaten him on the ticket (and her being cute makes him feel like Hue Huefner).

Comment by Steve Rinehart on 9/27/08 at 7:39 pm

Yes, please, get rid of Palin! Too bad McCain can’t pick up the gaffe machine or the Chicago thug whose political machines have made both Chicago and Illinois a financial mess!  I guess either of those would be way better VP candidates!

Comment by dan on 9/27/08 at 7:53 pm

I beg all of you older Jews not to let Israel fall to Obama. As much as we all hate republicans, they have always been a friend to Israel. Obama is a racist who for 20 years suppported radicals who hate our nation. Remember the holocaust and dont let it happen again.

Comment by will on 9/27/08 at 8:00 pm

Sarah Palin believes the government is controlled by Jewish bankers. She is an old-school anti-semitic conservative.

Comment by Sirkowski on 9/27/08 at 8:47 pm

to evoke the holocaust was overdoing it…palin was a political stunt that has backfired.  I have a hard time
voting for the same party expecting a different result. I also have an even harder time believing ms palin a right wing christian really cares about isreal or jews.
i will put my vote behind obama as a jew that new him in college

Comment by don on 9/27/08 at 9:22 pm

Yeah, frankly, I think anti-Mormonism is why Romney didn’t beat McCain in the first place, and I think the Republican base is starting to recognize this- that they blew it this time around.  I don’t have a crystal ball, but my guess is that Mike Huckabee will go down nastily in the history books as the anti-Mormon that cost America it’s economic status in the world…

Comment by Johanan on 9/27/08 at 9:23 pm

Hey…ease up on Palin…I mean you can’t honestly expect her to catch up with the number of ignorant gaffes and moronic statements Biden has made since he was chosen as VP.

Maybe if given a few decades in Washington Palin too can ask a paraplegic to stand up…or reduce Obama’s economic plan to being able to buy a toaster…or tell people there will be no new coal plants while Obama is professing “clean coal”...or try and convince people that higher taxes are patriotic…or condemn his own campaign ads…or state “Obama isn’t going to take my shotguns”....or…you get the idea.

I mean is it really fair to expect Palin to measure up to Biden’s proven nimble mind and great orator skills in just a few weeks? I think not. Even with all the practice Palin is putting in…I think Biden will still out perform her in stupid statements…at least 3:1 in the debate.

Comment by dan on 9/27/08 at 9:55 pm

It’s so ignorant to call Sen Obama a racist.
What is he, angry with the other side of himself?
His skin color is black, but, he was raised by his white mother, and her parents.
It anger’s me that some Jews, have forgotten their roots & morals, that because his skin color is black, he must be against Israel, or other such nonsense.
There is nothing in his past that even slightly resembles antisemitism, as a matter of fact, Michele Obama has a cousin, that is a Rabbi.  Don’t believe me, google it.
But the bottomline, is that I am embarrassed, that their are Jewish People that are so racist.  We know better, after all the hate that’s been directed towards us.
If you like the direction the Country is headed, fine, vote for Sen McCain.  You disagree with Sen Obama on the issues, fine, vote for Sen McCain.  You’re not frightened that Gov Palin could actually become President… fine, vote for Sen McCain.
But, if you vote for Sen McCain, because Sen Obama is black, or because you’re falling for all the lies they’re spinning about him, you’re just welcoming more antisemitism.  Because hatred begets hatred.
There is no place for racism, in Jewish thought.
Think before you vote.

Comment by baz on 9/27/08 at 10:19 pm

Forgive me for pointing out that Putin is not “Russian President Putin” but “Russian Premier Putin”.

Comment by Mike Becraft on 9/27/08 at 10:22 pm

The disrespect for the Chicago Jewish community is amazing.  Barack is our candidate.  We supported him before the black community came on board.  Look at his staff.  Look at his advisors.  Get a clue.  Barack is the Jewish candidate here.  Biden is also a made man.  McCain and Palin?  Are you kidding?

Comment by Chicago Guy on 9/27/08 at 10:58 pm

We Jews are quite fortunate in this election that (ugly rumors notwithstanding) both Presidential candidates are strong supporters of Israel, and both have legislative records to prove it.  In fact, their policy positions on Israel are nearly identical.  This leaves us free to vote based on other issues.

It is interesting that another poster raised the issue of preventing another Holocaust.  In my mind, the best protection against that is jealous guardianship of our civil liberties.  I am dismayed how, using the excuse of 9/11, Bush has systematically eroded civil liberties.  The Supreme Court justices McCain would appoint would continue that trend.

I don’t believe that either Bush or McCain intends to precipitate another Holocaust.  But by chipping away at our Constitutional protections - even with the best of intentions - they are planting seeds that could lead in that direction.

Obama has made his support for civil liberties quite clear.  That is why, for me as a Jew, supporting him is an obvious choice.

Comment by Ken on 9/27/08 at 10:58 pm

I agree she needs to be replaced by Romney, as suggested in the article (along with many other points made).  I thought she was fantastic at first, but she has been unable to prove herself since, and the VP debate is shaping up to be a complete disaster, which could spell the end for McCain.  Sliding in Romney at the last minute will grab the spotlights and throw off the Obama campaign, and Romney can run circles around Biden on economics.  Of course, they will say this indicates poor judgment in his initial running mate selection, and a campaign in turmoil, but if he keeps her, the question of judgment will loom even larger.  And in the current environment, as Dick Morris said, McCain can only win if he keeps pulling rabbits out of his hat.  If he puts in Romney, and the bailout plan goes from $700bn to $500bn due to McCain’s involvement, he could gain serious ground on the economics front.  The only downside to Romney is that he’s perceived as a rich guy with a lot of hairspray.  Therefore, McCain will need Palin to continue to campaign vigorously for him—which is what she’s best suited for.  Paul

Comment by Paul on 9/28/08 at 12:37 am

baz
There, there, don’t worry that Jews who oppose Obama are racist. Or ‘some’ Jews. There’s nothing you can do about ‘some’ people. But Jews are proven to be the least racist people around. No, the reason to oppose Obama is that he he has surrounded himself with antisemites and antiIsrael advisers and staffers, and some of these people will come into powerful policymaking positions if Obama gets elected. Biden himself has an obnoxious record in spite of what he says, but Obama’s staffers (those not forced to quit) and supporters are much worse. Pat Buchanan has stated that Obama’s views on Israel are closer to his than McCain’s

Buchanan recently told MSNBC: “Let me say about Israel here. My position on Israel is frankly awful. It is like Mika [Brzezinski]’s father’s, it’s a lot closer to Barack Obama’s than it is John McCain. I think Barack is right, we ought to talk to the Iranians, he’s right to oppose the war and, frankly, he’s right to say the Palestinian people have got a terrible deal over there and their suffering ought to be recognized. That’s Obama’s position. It’s my position. I don’t think it is a Nazi position.”

RJC was quick to point out that it wasn’t suggesting that Obama supports Buchanan’s views. “Rather, we are highlighting the fact that Buchanan believes that his views are in line with Obama’s on the critical issues of Israel and Iran,” said RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks said in an accompanying press statement. “Because Pat Buchanan shares Obama’s views on Iran and Israel, how comfortable can the Jewish community be with those positions?” Brooks added.

This is referring to a current ad by the RJC

Comment by Ben Plonie on 9/28/08 at 12:46 am

Real Reason why McCain chose Palin : Sexist and condescending
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apdFC-vh6Ng
Also his poor record of voting against equal pay for women and opposing Equal Roles for Women in the Military should be the business of American women voters.

Real Reason why McCain running for President in his own words
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-GfRmfb274#

Comment by SaraB on 9/28/08 at 6:54 am

Real Reason why McCain chose Palin : Sexist and condescending

Very sly… I think I see how his orks… by that logic Obama must have chosen Biden to attract the all-important idiot vote.

Equal Roles for Women in the Military may be too tough a nut to crack. Where does he stand on something easier like Equal Roles for Women in the Olympics? Who says a woman can’t compete for ‘Higher’, Farther, Faster’ (the Olympic motto). Where does Obama stand on this? When women have shown their physical abilities to best men in Greco-Roman wrestling the most backward politician will be incapable of opposing Equal Roles for Women in the Military! Booyah!

Comment by Ben Plonie on 9/28/08 at 7:46 am

i’m still willing to give palin the benefit of the doubt.  i think its a combination of nerves and being limited to the answers that she can give.  she’s probably got all the appropriate answers to these very common questions like…what your foreign policy experience but this is not the time to say them and have the obama camp and media shred it apart before the debate.  its also possible that palin is dumbing herself down to set very low expectation so there is this shock and awe effect as she carry her own at the debate.  i really hope so because the more she slips in the poll the more i’m thinking that mccain should have picked governor jindal of louisianna as i wanted.  in anycase, the mccain camp need to brush her up with much facts and positions.  facts alone won’t do it at the debate, she will need to express positions and be able to articulate them in a way that mainstreet americans and understand and look up to.  she needs to build confidence.

Comment by brad on 9/28/08 at 9:19 am

It’s not McCain’s fault that he ended up with Palin. He wanted Gracie Allen, but his staff broke it to him that she had been dead a while. So it came down to a choice between Palin and Kathie Lee Gifford. Palin answered the phone first.

Comment by Larry Linn on 9/28/08 at 10:30 am

I’m with the bradster. It is a convention in political mythology that all politicians know something about everything, like they have it all figured out if they just get to be in charge. Then comes a hurricane or a plane crash or a terrorist or a blackout and we realize they are all just people who know how to come off like they know but they really don’t. All the experts, the engineers, the teams, the project managers and leaders, the senior staff, the House and Senate Committees and their chairmen, the operatives, the consultants, the pundits, all geniuses after the fact but morons before the fact.

The race should go NOT to people like Obama who use verbal and intellectual intimidation to imply that health care and social security should be left to them because everyone else is a dummy who can’t grasp the nuances, but to people who have the character to clean up the messes. Obama is self-confessed as not being ‘detail-oriented’ (anybody but me remember that one?)

But Larry Linn indirectly makes a good point. Someone should abduct Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson at gunpoint and get their views on Georgia and Iran and pollution and energy policy and watch them do any better than Palin. Palin just needs to learn how to play ping-pong, not to bone up on every possible issue.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 9/28/08 at 10:51 am

I do not believe they could avoid a huge backlash from the base no matter who the alternate choice is.

Comment by andrew mackey on 9/28/08 at 12:22 pm

Quite right, andrew. I think the important thing is to not to lose track of why they made the choice to begin with. That’s not going to change. They want someone who looks and sounds and acts like an above average human being, not a blow-dried patronizing mannequin.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 9/28/08 at 8:08 pm

V P T R A D E IN T I M E

McCain will most definitely trade in his VP..
Short-term - spike in polls for the Repubs!
Mid-term - focus on his pathetic lack of judgement!
Election Day - D E F E A T!

McCain’s gone way back to his risk taking fighter pilot days - unfortunately he looks more like a Kamikaze than a navy pilot with three crashes under his belt.

Comment by SpottyBush on 9/29/08 at 9:46 am

McCain has obtained all his policies by looking through the rear view mirror.  His so called “military expertise” and “Middle East expertise” is dubious at best.  Simply travelling to one of the world’s hot spots does not make you an “expert”.  Post WWII conflicts involving the USA have most often ended in disaster.  These very conflicts are what McCain uses to pad his resume - and he hopes to add many more!

Comment by TBounds on 9/29/08 at 9:55 am

Jewish voters who are pro-israel and take the Iranian daily threats seriously pretty much got won over by Mccain in the debate.  Mccain was the obvious stronger supporter of Israel’s right to live!

Comment by charlene on 9/29/08 at 10:39 am

Professor Sonenshine:

This is right on. I have thought this for 2 weeks now. I think there is a 50-50 chance that some “event” or “happenstance” will occur to try this move.

Now, especially with the Wall Street and perhaps the rest of us, truly on the verge of collapse, who better than to bring in from the bullpen but a Wall Street guy, Mitt Romney, hair nicely combed, wearing a reassuring sweater, to promise calm seas.

Sarah will be given accolades as a great trooper, a heck of a middle reliever, and will thereafter be encouraged to get out in the bush for a month or so to help prep Mr. P for his snowmobile Iditerot.

The GOP? What a great country, what a bunch of guys! No matter what, they always have the product you need.

Comment by ed morris on 9/29/08 at 7:45 pm

“who better than to bring in from the bullpen but a Wall Street guy, Mitt Romney, hair nicely combed”

Are you kidding? People are in the mood to electrocute ‘Wall street guys. The first sign of life came to them when McCain said that the head of the SEC should be fired. ‘Like I said, a blow-dried patronizing mannequin. Mitt Romney was great on paper, but vague as anything live. I heard him interviewed by media hosts pitching him softballs to hit out of the park, and all he could do was bunt.

Let’s all wait for the VP debate tomorrow night before being all wise about it. We already know that Biden is a buffoon; let’s see if Sarah will shake loose the Herman Munster coaching she has gotten from the Bush team and be herself in the debate.

Comment by Ben Plonie on 10/01/08 at 11:10 pm

electrocute ‘Wall street guys. The first sign of life came to them when McCain said that the head of the SEC should be fired. ‘Like I said, a blow-dried patronizing mannequin. Mitt Romney was great on paper, but vague as anything live. I heard him interviewed by media hosts pitching him softballs to hit out of the park, and all he could do was bunt.

Let’s all wait for the VP debate tomorrow night before being all wise about it. We already know that Biden is a buffoon; let’s see if Sarah will shake loose the Herman Munster coaching she has gotten from the Bush team and be herself in the debate.

Comment by dissertation on 6/25/09 at 12:03 pm

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