Whither the Peace Process Without Abbas?

Rumors abound that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas may step down from his position and will not run in the presidential elections next year.

Though he has not publicly expressed any intention to resign, associates have not ruled the possibility that he will drop out of the presidential election.

Should this occur, it will impact both the Israeli-Palestinian peace track and reconciliation attempts between Abbas’ Fatah movement and their main rival, Hamas.

Dr. Samir Awwad, a professor of international politics at Birzeit University in Ramallah, said he did not think Abbas was likely to step down.

“Abbas is not likely to resign now, but if he does resign, it will be a major blow to the peace process,” Awwad told The Media Line. “I think that Mr. Abbas remains among the very few who believe that there still exists such a process, and I think that Abu Mazen, as we like to call him, is somebody who is totally committed to the peace process.”

Awwad acknowledged, however, that Abbas is “running out of options.” Israel, he argued, is impeding the potential for peace by not showing genuine commitment to the process.

“Even the things we agreed upon, the Israelis do not feel obliged to deliver,” he said. “So Abbas is considered a weak leader by his own people and by the Israelis, because he hasn’t achieved anything.”

Awwad said that a major factor in talks of Abbas’ resignation was frustration with American involvement in the region.

“Maybe it’s the belief that the American effort in the region is not that serious and is not being followed by the Israelis,” he said, referring to the U.S. role as a “media stunt.”

The challenges facing Abbas’ were highlighted over the weekend when visiting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, referring to what she termed “unprecedented” Israeli concessions. The statement came in contrast to the Obama administration’s previously stated position that all Israeli construction in the territories it occupied in the 1967 war must be frozen. 

The Palestinians were openly angered by the American flip-flop, all but killing their hopes that Obama would pressure Netanyahu into an Israeli freeze on settlement building. Responding to Clinton’s statement, a spokesman for Abbas said there was “no hope of negotiations on the horizon.”

If Abbas does choose to resign many analysts believe his likely successor to be Marwan Barghouthi, 50, currently serving five consecutive life terms for terrorism in an Israeli jail.

Barghouthi was recently elected into Fatah’s powerful Central Committee. This could help pave his way to the presidency of the Palestinian Authority and polls suggest he enjoys significant popularity among Palestinians.

But Awwad said Barghouthi could only become the leader of Fatah if Israel released him from jail.

“I don’t think that Marwan Barghouthi will be released from Israeli jail unless the Israelis are forced to, which means an exchange of prisoners,” he said. “If that’s the case, then wouldn’t the Israelis be teaching the Palestinians that force can yield results with the Israelis, but diplomacy and talks do not?”

Moshe Maoz, a professor of Islam and Middle East Studies at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem agreed that Abbas’ resignation would likely foil the peace process and embolden extremism.

“People will say ‘the moderates didn’t succeed in the negotiations with Israel’,” Maoz told The Media Line. “So this won’t be an award to peace, it will be an award to extremism.”

Maoz argued that while an Abbas’ resignation could open the way for a new and stronger leadership, this would have to take place through orderly and time-consuming elections.

“I think that Barghouthi could be a good leader,” he said. “He has an interesting combination of pragmatism and charisma, he’s a man who can link between Hamas and the PLO.”

“He’s like a Palestinian Mandela because he’s been in jail for a while,” Maoz added. “But again, you can’t just lift him out. It’s a matter of institutions and procedures and that will take time.”

Maoz made a distinction between a snap resignation, which he said would leave a vacuum and prop up extremist Palestinian groups, and an Abbas decision not to run in the elections, which would buy time for a stronger leader such as Barghouthi to vie for power.

The issue of Barghouthi’s release has encountered fierce opposition in Israel, with those opposed arguing that Barghouthi has blood on his hands and should not be rewarded.

Maoz said this was a narrow outlook.

“We need leadership with vision and we don’t have that on their side or on our side,” he said.

Neither Maoz nor Awwad believe Abbas will resign in the near future, both viewing it more as a tactic to pressure the Americans.

“Suddenly the Americans are accepting the Israeli position so it’s a tactic and perhaps also a sign of despair,” Maoz explained.