The Next Palestinian President a Hamas Man?

As seen at TheMediaLine.org.

Since Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas announced last week that he will not be contending for chairmanship in the upcoming elections, several theories have arisen concerning what will happen next.

Some theories center around a Palestinian plan to unilaterally declare an independent state, others contend that the Palestinian leadership may dissolve the Palestinian Authority altogether, and aides close to Abbas have implied he could resign from his positions as head of Fatah, the PLO or even resign from the chairmanship prior to the elections.

The Palestinian leader is frustrated with the lack of progress toward Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and disappointed with the conduct of the Americans, who he believes are not sufficiently pressuring Israel to freeze construction in the West Bank.

But one interesting twist in the current state of affairs has received little attention: if Abbas decides to forgo the chairmanship before the elections take place, his successor by default is speaker of the Parliament – Hamas lawmaker Aziz Dweik.

Dweik, 59, is not slated to run in the elections as a Hamas candidate. The likely candidate would be Isma’il Haniyya, the current prime minister of the de facto Hamas government in the Gaza Strip. But the very notion of a Hamas leader heading the Palestinian Authority is in itself a symbolic victory for the Islamist movement, and a hair-raising option for Israel and Fatah.
“I’m sure that Abbas wants to step down,” Dr. Feras Milhem, a law expert at the Palestinian Birzeit University told The Media Line. “But because it’s very sensitive, he cannot do it.”

“Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization will prevent him from doing that,” Dr Milhem said. “Otherwise, Dweik, who is from Hamas, will be the president for an interim period, and nobody inside Fatah or inside the PLO wants to see Hamas in that capacity.”

“According to our basic law,” Milhem explained. “If the president dies or resigns or is incapable of undertaking his duties, the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) can take his place.”

An interim chairman, Milhem added, has the exact same authorities and capacities as an elected chairman, including issuing laws by decree.

Although most constitutional traditions do not limit the interim president’s capacities, Milhem said it was the accepted norm in most cases to avoid making cardinal far-reaching decisions during this interim period.

“This is an ethical issue,” he said, “but in politics there are sometime no ethics.”

A Hamas figure in power is certainly not something that Fatah would take lightly.

“You’re talking about a rival from a party which carried out a coup in Gaza, a party that is refusing to sign the Egyptian reconciliation paper that Fatah signed,” Dr Milhem said. “So you’re talking about conceding to Hamas. For Fatah this is not acceptable at all.”

For Hamas, delaying the elections buys the movement time, and this could work in their favor in two ways.

First, it gives Hamas more time to build up its popularity which has been eroded over the past two years as the Gazan population grapples with a blockade and failing economy.

Second, it exhausts Abbas, who does not wish to remain in power. Hamas has a stranglehold over Abbas, who wants out of the chairmanship, but cannot give up the position before the election for fear of passing power to his rivals.

“Mahmoud Abbas is interested in making the elections as soon as possible because after the elections, he can step down,” Milhem said. “He’s not interested in staying in the job as long as there’s no progress on the political level. He wanted to deliver something to the people but admits that he can’t.”

Abbas has also been facing harsh criticism at home, after the way he dealt with the Goldstone report, the U.N. assessment of Israeli and Palestinian conduct during the Gaza war.

The original decision of the P.A. to delay the vote on the report at the United Nations Human Rights Council drew angry Palestinian responses towards Abbas. This may have contributed to his decision not to run in the next elections.

A Hamas chairman will be a new challenge for both the Fatah party, the de facto rulers in the West Bank who enjoy international support, and for the international community, who have embraced Abbas as the peacemaker with Israel while shunning Hamas.

Hamas came to power through the legislative elections in January 2006. The movement currently dominates the PLC but has been isolated by most of the international community over the party’s refusal to forgo violence in fighting Israel, to acknowledge agreements signed by previous Palestinian governments, and to recognize Israel.

The Palestinian Central Elections Commission announced on Thursday that it did not have the capacity to hold elections on January 24, as originally planned, effectively postponing the elections indefinitely.

Hanna Nasser, who heads the commission, said it was not up to the commission to set a new date.

Hamas and Fatah have failed to reach an agreement over a reconciliation deal proposed by Egypt. Hamas has refused to allow for an election in the Gaza Strip before a reconciliation deal is signed.