June 14, 2011
Prop 13 is a bust, Says a Demographer
Dowell Myers, a demographer colleague from USC, weighed in Steve Lopez’s June 1, LA Times column that support for Prop 13 is based on the myth that property values will keep on rising. Myers argues, based on his demographic analysis of the housing market, home values will actually stay low and go lower because, among other factors, of the oversupply of the aging baby boomer homes coming on the market and declining number of younger people able to afford those homes.
Myers points out that the ratio of seniors to working people in Los Angeles County has surged for the first time in four decades which will cause major disruptions in health care costs and pensions.
At the 23rd statewide Annual Demographic Workshop at USC, which I founded with Prof. David Heer, Myers pointed out that a quarter million children are missing in California since the last census in 2000. In Los Angeles, while the numbers of seniors grew, the number of children between the ages of 5 and 9 fell by a staggering 21% between 2000 and 2010.
There are a lot of public school teachers, a disproportionate number of them in Los Angeles are Jewish, who may be affected by this lack of students coming through their classes for the next twelve years.