April 18, 2013 | 12:28 pm

Fertiltiy and Family Law Specialties To Cater to Jews and Not Mormons

Posted by Pini Herman

Mormon Tzitzis?Believed to provide protection against temptation and evil.

Naomi Schaefer Riley in her Forward article argues that Jews can learn from Mormons about keeping intermarriage rates low forgot that we invented the techniques and certain parts of the Jewish community, salient among us, the ultra-Orthodox and Yeshivish communities still practice it to a degree that probably exceeds Mormon in-marriage.  Secondly, is the prevention of intermarriage as important for a religion where religious authority flows bottom up with Jews “choosing for themselves” rabbis than top-down authority such as Mormonism’s governing LDS hierarchy.

Jews marry older and adapted to this by greater use of fertility and family law experts to handle the lower fertility and higher divorce that may naturally come with later marriages and intermarriages. (See my 2011 blog: Marry Jewish and Avoid Anti-Semitism)

Mormons may have looked to the polygamy of pre-Rabbeinu Gershom Jewish times of around 1000 CE, but might have neglected to read the fine talmudic text discouraging men from having more than one wife. Utah’s acceptance to U.S. statehood seemed to be impetus for transitioning to monogamy for the Mormons who chose to stay in America rather migrating to Mexico, as did Mitt Romney’s great grandfather Miles Park Romney, a Mormon polygamist with five wives, who fled to Mexico to escape a crackdown on the practice of polygamy in the late-1800s and established a settlement there.

Jews have historically protected women’s right of marriage choice and divorce, from Talmudic times when a mature female, having grown three pubic hairs, was able to refuse her father’s choice of groom and accept marriage offer on her own, continuing through Rabbeinu Gershom who instituted the prohibition of divorcing a woman against her will.

The rough trajectory of women’s empowerment through choice and educational investment has continued in parts of the Jewish community leading to later marriage and divorce and remarriage.  All of these factors lead to greater out-marriage.  Historically when Jewish males outmarried, their wives magically became Jewish even without the benefit of formal conversion.  With Jewish women, matrilineal Jewish descent solved that problem.  I don’t think this general historical trend is going change much, except now patrilineal Jewish descent is accepted in wide parts of the Jewish community.  So, intermarriage for the Jews may have been historically beneficial.  Perhaps not so for the Mormons.

I wish on the Mormons the historical resiliency of the Jews.

Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

April 16, 2013 | 5:09 pm

Sherman Response to “Israelis Likely to Keep Waiting in Long U.S. Visa Lines in Sherman vs. Boxer”

Posted by Pini Herman

Sherman Response to Jewish Journal Blog Post by Pini Herman, “Israelis Likely to Keep Waiting in Long U.S. Visa Lines in Sherman vs. Boxer”

Congressman Brad Sherman

April 16, 2013

For reasons I do not understand, Mr. Herman finds conflict between Senator Boxer and me regarding legislation that would add Israel to the U.S. Visa Waiver Program.  There is no conflict.

In January 2013, I reintroduced a stand-alone bill, H.R. 300, to add Israel to the Visa Waiver Program.  Senator Ron Wyden and Senator Orrin Hatch introduced a similar bill, S. 266, in the Senate.  Senator Barbara Boxer introduced the U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership Act (S.462), which has several provisions to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations – including a section that will add Israel to the visa waiver program.  The Senator’s bill declares Israel a “major strategic partner” of the United States and expands U.S.-Israel cooperation on defense, homeland security, energy, and science.

The visa waiver provisions in Senator Boxer’s bill are very similar to the provisions in my bill (and those in Senator Wyden’s bill).  All three bills have identical provisions on reciprocal treatment for U.S. citizens.  The bills require the Secretary of Homeland Security to determine that Israel must make every reasonable effort, without jeopardizing the security of the State of Israel, to ensure that reciprocal travel privileges are extended to all United States citizens (see comparison below).

I first introduced the Visa Waiver for Israel Act in May 2012 along with lead cosponsor Ted Poe and 11 other colleagues; 34 members of Congress cosponsored my bill.  Support for the bill has widely expanded with its reintroduction this year.  There are 74 members of Congress cosponsoring the new bill in the House.

Adding Israel to the Visa Waiver Program will boost business in America and enhance economic, scientific, and cultural ties between the U.S and Israel.  Israelis can visit most of Europe as well as Canada, and several other countries around the world, visa-free, but not the United States.  Americans can visit Israel without first obtaining a visa; we should add our democratic ally and friend Israel to the Visa Waiver Program and allow Israelis to visit the United States visa-free.

The Jewish Journal Blog claims there is a “Boxer vs. Sherman” fight over the reciprocity provisions of the Israel visa waiver bill.  In fact the provisions on this issue are identical:

Sherman-Poe bill, both H.R. 300 (113th Congress) and H.R. 5850 (112th Congress)

Clause: Section 2, (c) (5)

The government of Israel has made every reasonable effort, without jeopardizing the security of the State of Israel, to ensure that reciprocal privileges are extended to all United States citizens.

Boxer-Blunt bill, S.462 (113th Congress)

Clause: Section 9, (2) (ii)

the Government of Israel—

`(ii) has made every reasonable effort, without jeopardizing the security of the State of Israel, to ensure that reciprocal travel privileges are extended to all United States citizens.'.

Wyden-Hatch bill, S. 266 (113th Congress) 

Clause: Section 3, (2)

The Government of Israel has made every reasonable effort, without jeopardizing the security of the State of Israel, to ensure that reciprocal privileges are extended to all United States citizens.

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April 15, 2013 | 12:06 pm

Israelis Likely to Keep Waiting in Long US Visa Lines in Sherman vs. Boxer

Posted by Pini Herman

Long Lines to Continue at Fortresses Israel and America

Los Angeles’ newly re-elected Congressman Brad Sherman's first bill introduced, House Resolution 300 or the Visa Waiver for Israel Act of 2013 is threatened on a new front in addition to earlier issues raised and answered in this blog by Congressman Sherman.

Sherman’s bill to enable Israelis to travel under a visa waiver program to the  to the U.S.is endangered by Senator Boxer’s inclusion in the Senate version of the S.462 U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership Act:

...Includes Israel in the visa waiver program when Israel satisfies such program's inclusion requirements and provides, subject to security concerns, reciprocal travel privileges for U.S. citizens.

That means, as explained by the JTA,  a requirement  that the Homeland Security secretary grant Israel visa waiver status after certifying with the secretary of state that Israel “has made every reasonable effort, without jeopardizing the security of the State of Israel, to ensure that reciprocal travel privileges are extended to all United States citizens.

As Ron Kampeas writes in the JTA:

A legislative effort led by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee to enable Israelis to enter the United States without visas may be stymied by the government – Israel’s government.

The hitch is Israel’s inability or unwillingness to fully reciprocate, something required for visa-free travel to the United States. Israel, citing security concerns, insists on the right to refuse entry to some U.S. citizens.

AIPAC is pushing for an exemption for Israel from this rule. But congressional staffers say Israel is unlikely to get such an exemption, which U.S. lawmakers view as an attempt to bar Arab Americans from freely entering Israel.

“It’s stunning that you would give a green light to another country to violate the civil liberties of Americans traveling abroad,” said a staffer for one leading pro-Israel lawmaker in the U.S. House of Representatives.

So Brad Sherman is finding himself stymied by Israel, AIPAC and Boxer on his first attempt at introducing a bill aimed at making life easier for Israelis and Americans. By inadvertently including Israeli Arabs  and Arab Americans Arabs in the visa waiver benefits this has produced the blowback from the Israeli government, AIPAC and the more plugged-in Senator Barbara Boxer.

It would be a shame to lose the advantages of increased freedom of travel between the U.S. and Israel  to what some perceive as the necessities of Fortress Israel and Fortress America.

Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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April 11, 2013 | 12:41 pm

Israel and American Kosher Red Meat Supply Don’t Add Up

Posted by Pini Herman

"There’s only so much meat on a cow."

There may be a lot of kosher red meat missing in the Jewish world. Demographic methods based on a variety of published agricultural, census, trade and news sources, as well as conservative assumptions on rates of Jewish kosher red meat consumption in Israel and the U.S are helpful in providing a picture of kosher meat availabilty.

The amount of kosher meat in the U.S. supply just doesn’t add up if one takes a conservative estimate of the American Jewish population being only 5.2 million Jews.  Assuming the 17 percent who said they only ate kosher to the 1990 National Jewish Population Survey interviewers hasn’t changed much, that would account for about 880 thousand American Jews.  Assuming that American Jews consume red meat at the same rate as other Americans of 113 pounds a year (as compared to the average Israeli consuming an estimated 45 pounds of red meat a year).  An average grain fed steer for slaughter in the U.S. weighs 1,280 pounds and only 49% of the carcass is edible or “cutable” as dressed meat which leaves about 630 edible pounds.  Traditionally, only the edible front half of a kosher-slaughtered cow may be used by kosher consumers so that leaves about 315 pounds of edible kosher meat.  It takes almost one kosher-slaughtered steer a year to feed almost three U.S. self-reported kosher-only-eating Jews, or a total of 319,000 cattle. 

Assuming that kosher-slaughter takes place on about 250 days a year, approximately 1,300 cattle would have to be slaughtered each day.  Considering that the highest recent year for kosher beef imports was 8.5 million pounds or the equivalent of 27,000 kosher-slaughtered cattle a year (or around 100 imported kosher slaughtered cattle per day), domestic U.S. kosher slaughter would have to be 1,200 cows a day to meet U.S. Jewish eats-kosher-only demand. 

There are only three U.S. domestic glatt kosher processing plants, Alle, primarily an importer who engages in some domestic slaughter at rented space in New York processing plant, Agri Star in Postville, Iowa and Noah's Ark Processors in Dawson, Minnesota,  who would each have to process approximately 400 cattle a-day to meet demand.  If any one of the processing plant could even process a tenth, or 40 cattle a day, that would be amazing, considering the modest size and scale of the existing three U.S. glatt kosher-slaughter meat processors.  My assumption is that glatt-kosher slaughtering 2 cattle-an-hour on 250-eight-hour days would be pretty “breakneck speed” for domestic glatt-kosher slaughter plants and result only in 12,000 cattle plus the 27,000 imported cattle being glatt-kosher slaughtered. This would only supply 12% of the 319,000 cattle needed to fill kosher-only-eating U.S.Jewish consumers red meat yearly demand.

Could it be that a glatt-kosher red-meat supply is only available for 80 thousand out of the 880 thousand American Jews estimated to eat kosher-only?  Why are glatt-kosher butcher shops not looking like the historical pictures of empty shelves found in Soviet Russia and Communist Cuba with ever longer lines?  This kosher-meat demand estimation exercise  uses conservative assumptions.  The 6.6 million U.S. Jews estimate of my east-coast based demographic colleagues, that I term the “million Jew mistake”  would translate into an additional 86,000 kosher-slaughtered cows to the 319,000 needed each year to meet estimated U.S. Jewish demand.

American kosher meat supplies just don’t add up to estimated demand. This brought home in a recent article about the local Doheny Glatt Kosher Meats covered by Jonah Lowenfeld: 

“In the kosher business in Los Angeles, everyone’s a competitor and everybody works together,” said Daryl Schwarz, who owned Kosher Club, a retailer and distributor of kosher meats that closed its doors on Pico in 2011 after more than 20 years in business. “Even though you could hate each other on a Monday, if somebody needs a product and you’ve got it, you’ll sell it to him.”

Schwarz said that while he would frequently find himself calling around to other markets to see if they had a particular kind of product in stock, Engelman always seemed to have whatever he needed.

“There’s only so much meat on a cow,” Schwarz said, “and Mike was never out of anything.”

Competitors are running out,  but one store has an assured supply. 

Many loyal customers of Doheny Glatt Kosher Meats believe that the meats that were switched were kosher, but to a lesser degree. That is doubtful.  The assumptions for these estimates are conservative, they assume no wastage and every cow  that enters a kosher slaughter line ends up being certified kosher.

Empire Kosher does sell regular kosher beef supervised by the OU (Orthodox Union) and the KAJ (K'Hal Adath Jeshurun), but Empire would have to account for an additional estimated 281,000 cattle a year, this equals in scale to two-and-a-half times the 115,000 cattle which were domestically slaughtered in the U.S. in a week for mid-April 2013.  For kosher destined cattle translates into over 1,100 cattle a work-day which would mean over 70 kosher slaughterers working at the pace of slaughtering and inspecting for kosher certification one cow each half hour without break for eight hours.

U.S. Jews could be eating a lot of hot dogs and salami, but that is doubtful. Hebrew National, a division of ConAgra, the largest cattle processor in the nation, markets only kosher deli prepared meats such as salami, not dressed beef. ConAgra is known as a meat exporter and is not a likely importer of kosher slaughtered cattle from South and Central America for use in preparing salami and sausages.

It's doubtful that there is any other major kosher red meat producer in the U.S. So, the kosher red meat supply in the U.S. is puzzling and seems to indicate a shortfall.

This kosher meat shortfall is sizable in Israel.

Israel’s annual consumption of red meat is estimated at close to 100,000 metric tons. While only some 25 percent of the population considers itself observant or orthodox in observance of Jewish law, between 70 and 80 percent of the Israeli population consume only kosher meat and poultry, that would translate into about 326,000 kosher-killed cattle, very similar to the U.S. Jewish demand and the vast majority of cattle are slaughtered outside of Israel, in accordance to Israel’s 1994 Kashrut law.

Based on an Israeli government report, the yearly ten thousand metric tons of non-kosher meat, or the equivalent of over 70,000 kosher-killed cattle, found by Israel’s State Controller which comes through Israeli ports and is diverted from the Palestinian Authority and sold as kosher within Israel, this constitutes about 10 percent of red meat bought as kosher by Israeli consumers.

On any given day about a half-million Israeli Jews may be unknowingly consuming non-kosher red meat.

So, what might a combined estimate of over one million Israeli and American Jews have in common? Chew on that.  

The problem of the kosher meat supply is systemic rather than the greed of one or another kosher retailer. Independent non-Orthodox outside auditing is needed to supervise the Kosher supervisors.

UPDATE 5/8/2013  The following is a recent email exchange with a person who wishes to remain anonymous regarding some of the assumptions that I put forth regarding kosher slaughter for the dressed beef market in the U.S.

From:NWBR
To: Pini Herman
Sent: Fri, May 3, 2013 4:27:16 PM
Subject: Article about Kosher Meat in the US

Hi Dr. Herman,

I saw several issues with your article of April 11th concerning the estimates provided, and wanted to know what you thought about it.

After a bit of consideration, the claims that the total production of US Kosher slaughtered beef is “only in 12,000 cattle” a year seems problematic. Agriprocessors alone was slaughtering 500-700 head / day at its peak, and this is much larger than your estimate. (See: http://www.agrinews.com/agri/star/promises/big/economic/effect/in/postville/story-2369.html and http://thegazette.com/2010/04/13/former-agriprocessors-plant-restarts-operations/ for the larger estimate.) Additionally, it seems to me that the estimates for kosher beef consumption are inaccurate. The assumption that Jews who keep Kosher eat the same amount of red meat as the American Public is unusual, and the level of red meat consumption itself seems high given the American Meat institute’s claim of 65 lbs / year of beef (http://www.meatami.com/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/48781.) On a related note, the income elasticity of meat consumption is not accounted for; kosher meat is much more expensive then non-kosher meat, so less presumably would be consumed.

I’m interested in your thoughts about this. Thanks,
Name Witheld By Request

....................................

From: Pini Herman
Sent: Sunday, May 05, 2013 12:55 PM
To:NWHBR
Subject: Re: Article about Kosher Meat in the US

Hi NWBR,

I appreciate your comments.  You are probably right that the kosher slaughter is over 40 a day.  I was looking at feasibility studies of similarly sized processing plants to Agri Star's plant, but size may not matter as much.  The main quantity I was working off was Alle's increase of imported beef during the time that Agriprocessors was shut down because of the raids on Argriprocessors.

The average consumption figure I'm working with is "red meat" which for Americans includes beef, lamb, pork, which for Jews probably means a greater share of beef in the diet because pork is not eaten. The fowl argument that Jews make it up with chicken and turkey would assume that non-Jewish Americans don't also consume great amounts of the birds, which are not categorized as "red meat."  The Beef Council naturally concerns itself with beef only.

Would you mind if I incorporated your letter in the blog and continue the conversation and calculations there?

Warm regards,

Pini Herman

-------------------

From: NWHBR
To: Pini Herman 
Sent: Sun, May 5, 2013 5:03:15 PM
Subject: RE: Article about Kosher Meat in the US

Hi Dr. Herman,

I don’t feel comfortable having the figures I provided used for the purposes of the estimation you are attempting, especially having my name associated with the idea that this calculation is valid. I don’t think that this type of calculation is at all reasonable for estimating whether or not kosher meat is supplied in sufficient quantities to fulfill demand. To back up the extraordinary claim that “kosher” meat that is sold is in fact not kosher, you would need extraordinary evidence. I don’t think that this type of calculation could possibly qualify, which is why I wanted to point out the issues I saw with the calculation.

If you want to continue the calculation, however, cross-substitution of beef and nonkosher meat can be estimated economically, and while any exact figures are difficult to assess given the large change in prices and the elimination of pork as an option, it doesn’t line up with your guesses about chicken, beef, and pork. According to the USDA’s published price elasticity estimates, a 50% increase in the price of beef would increase chicken consumption by 40% or more, but increase pork consumption by less than 10%; they just aren’t strong substitutes. The main effect of a price increase in pork (which can be used as a proxy to consider the lack of consumption of pork) is increased consumption of “other meats,” which would include turkey and other non-chicken, non-beef meat items. Fish seems to have a large substitution effect with pork as well.

Thanks,
NWHBR

Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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April 4, 2013 | 4:54 pm

Israel’s Own Doheny Glatt Kosher Scandal

Posted by Pini Herman

A Non-Denominational Kosher Supervisor

The similar type of Israeli law that leads to the arrests of women wearing a tallit while praying at the Western Wall was passed by April 1994, ultra-Orthodox Shas made a deal with the Labor Party, which led the government at the time, and together the two pushed through the "Kashrut Law" in the dead of night according to Haaretz.  The Kashrut Law states that Israel will only import kosher meat. Israel's importers subsequently send hundreds of kashrut inspectors - with their families in tow - to slaughterhouses and processing plants around the world.  Sending of kashrut inspectors is expensive so there is a 190 percent tax on Kosher meat imports to Israel.  

Meat that goes to the Palestinian Authority is not taxed this way. For instance, a Palestinian importer pays $1.55 per kilo of fresh fillet, while the Israeli importer pays $11.80 for the same cut of meat: 7.6 times more.

So on a much grander scale than at Doheny Glatt, there is a switcheroo in Israel.  The Israel state comptroller, Micha Lindenstrauss, reported that out of 35,000 tons of fresh meat unloaded at Israel's ports during 2007 to 2009 for sale in the Palestinian Authority, only 15,600 tons reached their stated destinations. No less than 56% of the amount, or 19,400 tons, "disappeared."

As Amiram Cohen writes in Haaretz, the disappeared non-kosher meat in Israel:

....passes from truck to truck en route, drivers change, shipment certificates designating destinations are faked and the meat for Palestinians finds its way to butcher shops in Israel. The recipients stick on labels attesting that the meat is as kosher as kosher can be. Sometimes they fake the labels, sometimes the smugglers buy perfectly authentic kashrut certificates from kashrut inspectors gone bad. In any case this illicitly kosherized meat finds its way to butcher shops throughout the land.

Sounds so LA, but with a difference.  In Israel the kashrut supervisors are mostly state employees or overseen by the state and are generally paid a living wage and are forbidden by law to accept other remuneration.  In Los Angeles, rabbis have pointed out that a kosher supervisor may not receive a living wage from the Kosher certifying agency and therefore are sometimes paid by the stores they supervise creating an impossible conflct of interest where they may endanger a significant part of their livelihood if they turn in the store being supervised for kosher transgressions.

In Israel, this continuing scandal was uncovered by the non-Orthodox Israel State Controller looking at lost tax revenue, not the Israel Ministry of Religion or Rabbinate.  Similarly, in Los Angeles the Doheny Glatt Kosher scandal was uncovered by a non-Orthdox investigator worried about the high price of kosher meat.  An earlier scandal, revealed in October 2012, of staged kosher slaughter of tons of Yom Kippur Kaparot chickens being sent to landfill rather than the needy was document by another non-Orthodox person, myself, disturbed that people performing Kaparot charity were being defrauded  resources for the needy were being trashed.

The two recent LA kosher scandals were not a total surprise to kosher certifying agencies in the opinion of several who had gone to the RCC, other certifying agencies, rabbis and Jewish media who did not dwelve into past revelations with any great or even minimal energy.  There is central prohibition in Judaism against "putting an obstacle before the blind" by persons who've been enabled with knowledge. When I went to the Board of Rabbis, a department of the Jewish Federation of Greater LA, with the Kaparot scandal information. There seems to be an attitude that this topic is not really a communal issue and after four months still no reply from the Jewish Federation's Board of Rabbis department.

The crucial difference this time was incriminating videos and pictures taken by a non-Orthodox volunteer, Eric Agaki, "as a mitzvah."  Only belatedly, after the scandal were 24 hour video cameras installed in Doheny Glatt Kosher by the new kosher supervision that took over for the RCC.  I suggest that a recorded video feed from the Kosher butcher shop might be made available to on the Web to others beside the kosher supervisors, so scrutiny may be engaged by all stakeholders and consumers, whether Orthodox or non-Orthodox.  

Just as a Jewish population survey is conducted regardless of Jewish denomination in order to acertain the size, scope, needs, health and functioning of the community by a variety of criteria.  An ongoing Jewish kosher status survey of video feeds should be equally inclusive of a variety of criteria from glatt to stam kosher to kosher style. This would be an all-denominational kosher supervision and consumers would have a types of kosher and price range to choose from. Its an idea, video monitoring of animal slaughter, whose time may be here.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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March 29, 2013 | 12:26 pm

Pico-Robertson as a Demographically Stagnant Community

Posted by Pini Herman

Bumper sticker seen in Pico-Robertson traffic

The Pico-Robertson demographic trends were revealed in two enlightening articles of a center of local Jewish Orthodox resident by Jonah Lowenfeld in the west end of Pico-Robertson  and by Jared Sichel on the east end of Pico-Robertson. Jewish Orthodox areas are often constrained by walking distance to a synagogue that the Jewish Orthodox worshiper feels meet their needs.  Often synagogue planning and foundings are based on rosey projections as to their attractiveness to a particular type of worshiper.

Rather than sharing a rosey outlook, my basic demographic assumption about Orthodox Jewry in the whole of the Pico-Robertson area is that it at best is a stagnant population for the past 15-20 years and perhaps slightly declining in number.  That’s not a narrative local boosters like to hear.

The east end Pico-Robertson area, called by realtors Faircrest Heights, is an example of local Orthodox Jewish boosters talking up an area to entice others to move in.  This may actually create a viable Orthodox Jewish area, but at the cost to existing Orthodox Jewish areas which may become less viable.

The west end Pico-Robertson area example of Mogen David is an example of an existing legacy Jewish institution which was considered to be "traditional" with  mixed gender seating.

I was asked and agreed to consult on a voluntary basis in 1999 by the Mogen David board committee that was considering the shift to conventional Orthodoxy for before they placed a mechitza for separate gender seating.

I told Mogen David, 14 years ago, the best they could hope for was cannibalizing other Orthodox congregations further east because the neighborhood they were in was too expensive for their hoped-for orthodox congregants to buy into and too far to walk to, except for younger vigorous Jews.

Unfortunately, my judgement, though ignored, seems to have been accurate, as was mentioned in the Mogen David article Rabbi Davidovitz is still attempting to "attract 'floaters,' young people who feel disenfranchised at the other Orthodox synagogues in Pico-Robertson."

This "cannibalization" of congregants is symptomatic of a relatively small Orthodox population that is not growing and ultimately leads to a proliferation of synagogues which may not have to critical congregational mass to survive.

Mogen David is not the only synagogue to host a Sephardic congregation without the resources for their own building as this segment of the Orthodox population is even smaller than the Ashkenaz Orthodox population and doesn't have the historical resources to tap.

The article on the east-end Faircrest Heights is pretty much the same story, but with cheaper housing than on the west side of Pico-Roberts where Mogen David is situated. My guess is that the Faircrest Hts. area will valiantly struggle for the next decade and never achieve a critical mass in terms of Orthodox habitability unless there is an unforeseen Orthodox migration into LA from other parts of the US or abroad. I don't expect much local growth of the Orthodox community.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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March 25, 2013 | 12:07 pm

Israelis “Next Year in Jerusalem”  Much More Likely

Posted by Pini Herman

Israelis Coming to Los Angeles

Israeli-born Jews were found to be not a growing presence by the recently published New York Jewish Population Study.  The number of Israeli-born Jews in New York declined 6.5 percent in the last decade since 2002 when 31,000 Jewish Israeli-borns were counted and 2011 when 29,000 were found.

This is additional key evidence that Israel is not losing population to the key Israeli migratory destination in the world, New York.  The myth of mass Israeli migration has become an integral part of the Jewish civil religion recounting it’s own Exodus story.  One has to wonder why, when in actuality Israel retains its native born at rates much better than most developed countries.

For a people, one of whose main narratives is migration, and now is the most popularly celebrated Jewish ritual in existence, its not surprising that when currently there may not be an “Egypt” to flee from, other venues, such as the U.S. (“next year in Jerusalem) and Israel may stand in for a place to exodus from.  Unfortunately for popular beliefs, demography doesn’t seem to confirm the popular piety of Israeli Jews who remain in place and American Jews who viscerally react to Yordim, a pejorative for “those who go down” or fell off the Zionist wagon, that they fully intend to alight on in the future.

The other central narrative of Passover, “for you were slaves in Egypt” and it’s imperatives for social justice are much more achievable contemporarily  than the demographic themes of of the holiday and that is perhaps the main true strength of the Jewish people as well the ability to engage in wishful thinking about migration and migratory opportunities.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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March 21, 2013 | 2:02 pm

Israel Kept Silent About Weapons of Mass Depiction and Weapons of Mass Distraction

Posted by Pini Herman

Weapons: Atomic, Biological, Chemical, Information

Its been ten years since the invasion of Iraq and the “weapons of mass destruction” that were never found.  I can’t find any mention of Benjamin Netanyahu saying that he was mistaken when he spoke with absolute certainty about Iraq’s WMDs in September 2002 before the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

In 2004, Israeli lawmaker Yossi Sarid, a member of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, said that Israeli intelligence knew beforehand that Iraq had no weapons stockpiles and misled US President George W Bush. Sarid told the Associated Press:

It was known in Israel that the story that weapons of mass destruction could be activated in 45 minutes was an old wives' tale....Israel didn't want to spoil President Bush's scenario, and it should have.

Israeli critics of its government say Ariel Sharon maintained the state of alert for its own political reasons, to help galvanise public opinion in favour of harsh steps against the Palestinians.  Essentially using the Weapons of Mass Destruction scenario as a Weapon of Mass Distraction.

Why is a demographer engaged in “political analysis?” Being a demographer, I’m often put into the situation of actually looking at data and then seeing the depiction of masses of people who aren’t actually there or seeing masses of phenomenon that are depicted as non-existent and are very much present.  Often these “weapons of mass depiction” also serve as “weapons of mass distraction” to enable the masking of policies, actions, avoiding discomfort and maintenance of relationships.  For the most part, in democracies, there isn’t intentional deception, but rather mistaken assumptions, pursuit of convenience and avoidance of confrontations, disruptions and change.

Some weapons of mass depictions that I have pointed out in the past have been what I believe to be the “million American Jew mistake,” tons of Kaparot chickens ending up in landfill instead of in the hands of the needy; large numbers of Israelis immigrants in the U.S. when their numbers are very modest; nonprofits displaying great public benefit when it is rather modest, non-existent or may be actually harmful to the public.  Inaccurate mass depictions often serve as mass distractions which lead to continuing victimization, disempowerment and they are often stumbling blocks put up before individuals and public that can be blinded to the point of distraction, continuing to trip over obstacles.  One of the primary injunctions of Judaism is “Do not put obstacles before the blind.”

To continue with Benjamin Netanyahu, he seems to have followed Prime Minister Begin's 1981 mistaken understanding and depiction of Iraq's nuclear capabililty. Marlfrid Braut-Hegghamer wrote recently in an NY Times Op Ed:

Netanyahu’s proposed solution for dealing with Iran — a targeted attack — also builds on a historical lesson from Iraq. Unfortunately, it is the wrong lesson. In 1981, Israeli pilots destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor complex as it stood on the verge of becoming operational. As Avner Cohen, an expert on nuclear weapons, recently wrote in Haaretz, this decision resulted from Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s flawed interpretation of intelligence. (His decision was strongly opposed by Shimon Peres, then defense minister and deputy prime minister.)

Israelis tend to credit this attack for denying Iraq a nuclear weapons capability. However, sources that have emerged since 2003 demonstrate that the attack created an unprecedented Iraqi consensus about the need for a nuclear deterrent and triggered a more intensive effort to acquire them. By the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq stood on the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability.

There are many ways to depict and analyze something and all should be open for discussion and examination.  It would be nice if people would also own up their errors rather than creating new distractions.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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