November 16, 2012 | 2:10 pm

Israel’s Dresden Not Unachievable in Gaza

Posted by Pini Herman

Dresden 1945

"Israel needs to do to Gaza what the Allies did to Dresden ."

That was Noshie63's comment on the Forward's website getting likes from fellow readers.  Having read Farenheit 451, but not knowing the actual Dresden casualty figures, I wondered what a contemporary equivalent carnage would look like.  It turns out that only using the estimated Cast Lead death figures, we are already one-tenth the way to a carnage equivalent to the firebombing of Dresden in World War II.  A current incursion into Gaza could be a bit longer and costler than Cast Lead and if 6,800 Gazan City residents are killed then a casualty rate equivalent to WWII Dresden will have been achieved.

Dresden in WWII had a population of 1.6 million and a 2010 historical estimate by the City of Dresden Historians Commission of the bombing toll put it at 25,000 civilians killed during the Allied firebombing of February 1945, a far smaller Dresden death toll than popularly had been believed.

The Gaza Strip which has an estimated total population of 1.7 million. Just for the 2008-9 Gaza Cast Lead incursion into the Gaza Strip, B'Tzelem put the total deaths at about 3,195. To achieve a Dresden equivalent for the Gaza Strip another 22,000 Gazans need die. In the event another Cast Lead type incursion occurs into the relatively small geography of the Gaza Strip and Gazan casualties are worse than Cast Lead, an awful parity with Dresden in terms of the human toll is conceivable. Without a ceasefire, a Dresden scale death rate in Gaza may not be as far off as one might think.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

November 10, 2012 | 8:24 pm

Israel isn’t the Wedge For Greying U.S. Jews Fast Polarizing to White

Posted by Pini Herman

Demography may be destiny

American circumstances rather than Israel seem to be what a motivates the Jewish vote.

Ronald Brownstein credits demographer William Frey with the phrase “brown vs. grey”, describing the growing competition and conflict between the two giant generations reshaping American life. The brown is centered on the 95-million-member millennial generation, born from 1982 to 2002 and now moving into the workforce and the electorate. The gray revolves around the 85-million-member baby boom generation born from 1946 to 1964, which is steadily moving out of the workforce into retirement but remains a huge voting presence.  

Israel as a wedge issue is passé according to Shmuel Rosner:

Many of the voters that were convinced that the Republican Party is better on Israel probably were in that camp way before Obama came along. 

The relatively precipitous drop in Jewish votes for Obama has been put in the context of the overall decline in total white vote for Obama.  While still firmly Democratic, according to Pew Research the Jewish decline was nine percent, the highest decline from 2008 measured for any studied religious group and over twice that of U.S. Whites overall, four percent.  Earlier I have described the as the "Jewish slide to white."

This may be indicative of a fast-growing minority of Jews abandoning social justice values and minority self-identification and in turn choosing the white and greying side in the grey vs. brown racial polarization generally evident in last Tuesday’s election.

This is a graphic illustration by the Pew Hispanic Center of the 2010 census finding showing the age composition differentials which are where the voting populace is heading:

Note that the age structure of the LA Jewish community in 1997 was characteristic of the current white population and if current studies were done would be shown to be even more elderly.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

0 Comments — Leave your comment

November 8, 2012 | 1:18 pm

Jewish Identity’s Slide to White

Posted by Pini Herman

Jews may be sliding white

The drop in Jewish votes for Obama has been put in the context of the overall decline in total white vote for Obama.  But while still firmly Democratic, according to Pew Research the Jewish decline was nine percent, the highest decline from 2008 measured for any studied religious group and over twice that of U.S. Whites overall, four percent.  

This may be indicative of a growing minority of Jews abandoning social justice values and minority self-identification and seems to conflicts with Steven M. Cohen’s widely published assessment that:

“Whites votes for Obama dropped by four percent and Jewish vote for Obama dropped by five percent. Statistically that means there is no difference. And compared to whites, Jews are just as firmly in the Democratic camp as they were in 2008,” he said, citing a Workman’s Circle survey released in July that he conducted that indicated Jews make their voting decisions primarily based on views on economic justice and social inclusion."

Jewish office seekers should take heed, and learn from the example of Howard Berman, that the general electorate is demographically shifting and that perhaps the Jewish electorate is shifting in a different direction at a faster rate.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

1 Comments — Leave your comment

November 7, 2012 | 1:04 am

Jewish Whiteness Doesn’t Get You Elected

Posted by Pini Herman

A Latino forum might have been safer

American Jews have maintained a complex relationship to whiteness. The 2012 exit polling preliminary results shows that 70 percent of Jews voted for President Obama, equaling the voting profile of Latinos and other minorities.

The Republican Jewish Coalition may be stunned again, peering out of the echo chamber of some Jewish wealth magnets, Jewish Orthodox, immigrant communities of Israeli, Russian and Iranians who identify with the American whiteness and privilege projected by the Republican party. These small American Jewish groups echoed repeated polling findings in Israel that reflected an affinity of Israelis for Republicans and perhaps the embattled American whiteness that they represent which may resonate well with Jewish Israelis who feel embattled themselves.

Locally, we have lost major congressional influence and power based on a simple campaign miscalculation of ignoring the votes of fellow minorities. Unfortunately, Howard Berman, who embraced Latinos throughout his legislative career somehow forgot them in his re-election effort and never wavered from catering to numerically miniscule constituencies who don’t share his core convictions. He ignored his natural Latino constituency, who would have embraced him just for his record if he had been a little more vigorous in sharing it with them. I mourn Berman’s loss.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

1 Comments — Leave your comment

November 2, 2012 | 12:04 pm

Ten Tons of Chickens Tossed As Food Relief Lines Grow in LA

Posted by Pini Herman

Chickes on the Way to Landfill from Pico-Robertson

On September 25, 2012, Erev Yom Kippur, the City of Los Angeles Department of Sanitation made three dead animal pickups, two in the Pico-Robertson area and one in the La Brea-Melrose area collecting a total weight of 19,685 pounds of dead animals, that is chickens.  The chickens were disposed of in the usual manner, taken to a landfill.

The source of the chickens were Kaparos sites which had assured Jews performing the Kaparos ritual with chickens, each costing between $19 and $26 that each slaughtered bird was being given to the needy. When the Kaparos organizers decided to increase their financial gain by availing themselves of the City of LA’s free dead animal pickup, they left a data trail which was made available by Richard Lee of the Public Affairs Office of the Department of Public Works, Bureau of Sanitation.

The produces an interesting way to roughly estimate the less than one-in-four proportion of the minority of Orthodox households  who perform the Kaparos ceremony with a live chicken rather the three-in-four majority Orthodox households who use only coins for Kaparos. The 1997 LA Jewish Population Survey found that four percent of the Jewish households were Orthodox.  Assuming that Los Angeles has not seen a radical change in it’s Orthodox population, less than one percent of estimated Orthodox households used at least one chicken for Kaparos based on the average weight of live chickens, 7 pounds, and the total of 19,685 pounds of chicken trucked to landfill by the city.  There may have been other Kaparos sites using private sanitation hauling or just disposing chickens in dumpsters or garbage cans.

I have not encountered any donations of Kaparos slaughtered chicken prepared and donated to the needy as the community has been assured. (Click here for first and second blogs on Kaparos)

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

0 Comments — Leave your comment

October 24, 2012 | 1:08 pm

Dramatic Findings Often Don’t Hold Up

Posted by Pini Herman

None of these conventional wisdoms reflect research findings:

A tenth of the U.S. population is Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual or Transgender.

Orthodox Jews will become the majority while non-Orthodox Jews will disappear through assimilation from the Jewish population.

Emigration of Jews from Israel is endangering Israel’s existence.

Many hot button topics rely on dramatic findings of unreplicable studies to pass unchallenged into “conventional wisdom” and have great political and policy influence and incorrect assumptions are never questioned or can withstand the light of basic research.

These came to mind because today's  LA Times highlighted a study by Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford which demonstrated that “very large effects” rarely held up when other medical research teams tried to replicate them. 

Small studies often show dramatic findings which often go away when repeatedly replicated or studied when a total population is more realistically represented through robust and scientific sampling.

The Kinsey studies of the 1950’s set the assumption that the “homosexual” component of the population was ten percent, this has never been replicated.  Depending on definition, all studies, including recent ones based on scientific samples of the US population, have found around 2 or 3 percent. 

Disproportionate disaffiliation from Orthodox Judaism, both in the US and Israel, is buttressing the numbers of non-Orthodox Jews, while non-Orthodox Jewish identity may be more robust at surviving assimilation to the point of non-Jewish self-identification.

Despite the recent findings of the narrowly bounded 2011 NY Jewish Community Study that the Jewish population is growing again, no National Jewish Population Survey has been undertaken and assumptions that the US Jewish population is growing and still exceeds Israel’s Jewish population would likely be contradicted in a future scientific National Jewish Population Survey.

Israel is actually retaining its native Jewish population more effectively than other industrialized countries are retaining their populations as well as attracting non-native Jewish populations better than other countries.

Basic scientific large-scale research is usually the only effective antidote for the mistaken dramatic assumptions entering into common wisdom, but because it’s large-scale, its expensive and often the most endangered in time of fiscal cutbacks such as we’re experiencing now.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

0 Comments — Leave your comment

October 10, 2012 | 2:24 pm

Israeli Religiosity Choices Trending Toward Secular

Posted by Pini Herman

Come Hither?

Research on American Jews has demonstrated that a significant proportion have switched their Jewish denominations from their families of origin, predominantly leftward.  In Israel the same overall leftward Jewish trend is observed where a smaller, but significant, proportion of Israeli Jews shift their religiosity from that of their families of origin.

Using the Jewish religious classification of the Jerusalem Institute of Israel studies, based on Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics survey data, one-third of Israel’s Jews are religious, that is ultra- and non-ultra-Orthodox Jews. Two-thirds are non-religious or secular Jews.  Approximately a fifth of Israel’s Jewish adults identify their religiosity as different from how they were raised.  A quarter shifted from Jewish Secular practice to Religious and three-quarters of the shifters went from Jewish Religious practice  to non-Religious and Secular practice in Israel.

The Jewish ultra-Orthodox did experience growth with religiosity switchers coming from those raised non-ultra-Orthodox and Secular, but this is in the context of their relatively small overall proportion of Israel’s population.

Overall, while the Religious segments of Israeli society are enjoying greater natural increase, they are actually contributing three Jews to Secular Israel as they are receiving only one in return. To retain Religious proportional strength in Israeli society and the voting booth. It’s important that the Religious maintain their high birth rates, which among the ultra-Orthodox is showing signs of decline.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

0 Comments — Leave your comment

October 4, 2012 | 11:10 am

Chicken Tzedakah Makes a Racket

Posted by Pini Herman

Programmed to Compile Donations

Just before Yom Kippur, through the narrowly practiced Kaparos holiday ritual, hundreds of live chickens, costing $20 to $30 apiece, are waved over many peoples’ heads to transfer their sins to the animal. The chickens, or their value, must be donated to the poor. This donation is intended to fullfil some of the Tzedakah efforts before a person’s destiny is sealed during the Days of Awe, along with Tshuvah or repentance, and T’filah or prayer. The donated chickens were documented being trashed.

Just as demographers vertify that data hasn’t been falsified, is gathered appropriately, processed and that analytical procedures followed rigorously, there is a process for Kosher supervision and certification.

According to Rabbi Avrohom Union of the prominent Kosher certification body, the Rabbinical Council of California (RCC),  a person wanting to do Kaparos should make sure that the schechita, or ritual slaughter, is Kosher, even if they don't intend to eat the chicken themselves.  Rabbi Union stated that, “The RCC does not supervise Kaparos nor are we involved in arranging Kaparos at any location.”   Inquiries were made to other local Kosher supervision certification entities and to the rabbi at the synagogue where one of the Kaparos sites was located and as of this publication, no response has been received.

The Kosher slaughter status of an animal is contingent upon it being consumed by people after it is killed.  If, as documented, the chickens go straight to the garbage bag and then hauled away by the Department of Sanitation to landfill, their slaughter is not considered Kosher by most orthodox rabbinical opinion.

Without recognized Kosher supervision the, Kosher ritual killing of the chickens was just staged to look authentic, but it’s no more authentic than Enron’s famous trading room where brokers sat pretending to work on phones and computer screens while financial analysts were led through on pre-arranged tours.

Many men doing Kaparos were conned into thinking that they were swinging roosters, but all the chickens at the sites I observed and photographed were hens at the end of their laying life-cycles purchased cheaply from egg farms.

The blood and gore coming fast after those doing Kaparos with the chicken was primarily for dramatic effect. The chicken used in the ritual could have easily put back in a cage and Kosher slaughtered at a later date after Yom Kippur and distributed to the needy. One chicken may be used for any number of people...the ritual prayer blessing also reads “for our sins.” 

This local blood spectacle was definitely accompanied by the racket of the hens being swung as well as the racket perpetrated on the community.

(Link to prior post on the topic: Chicken Tzedakah)

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

0 Comments — Leave your comment