November 21, 2012 | 4:25 pm

Israeli Math Argues For An End to Gaza Blockade

Posted by Pini Herman

Remove tunneling for food incentives and tunnels will be only for weapons and missiles.

The blockade of Gaza must end.  The Gazan's term it a "siege",  which connotes an effort to break a population's will through starvation.  There is no reported current food shortage as was characterized by the  2006 to 2010 blockade period., following a June 2010 lifting of  restrictions of food and consumer goods  imports.

I was doubtful of these claims, as the Israeli government claims to adequate humanitarian supplies.  The court-ordered release of the Israeli Defense Ministry's own estimates documents the observed truck deliveries, 17% of 2006 levels while the population has grown an estimated 13% and food needs increased during the the 2006 to 2010 period.

By the Israeli Defense Ministry’s caloric calculations of how many trucks of food to allow into Gaza, actual delivery fell to only 63% of what is needed to prevent malnutrition for a Gaza Strip population estimated at 1,476,294 in 2007 and current estimates are 1.7 million (17%growth). Without smuggled food entering through the tunnels (as documented in this month's National Geographic Magazine), by the Defense Ministry’s own estimate, during the the 2006 to 2010 period malnutrition in Gaza, but for smuggled food, might have been rampant.

The Israeli Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Health officials undertook nutrition estimates which led to the conclusion that a daily shipment of 106 trucks to the Gaza Strip per business day would suffice for supplying its residents with their “daily humanitarian portion,” that is, to prevent malnutrition. By comparison, before June 2007, on average, more than 400 trucks entered the Gaza Strip every day. From June 2007 to Sept. 2012 just 67 trucks on average to enter Gaza per business day during the the 2006 and 2010 period.. The Israeli Defense Ministry document was released two month ago after a long court effort by Gisha.

Update (11/23/12): The Los Angeles Times published a story on 11/23/12 on the blockade and  that Israel relaxed its blockade restrictions on the importation of food and most other goods in 2010 following the Gaza flotilla raid. The Atlantic magazine's Robert Wright (11/19/12) learned that apparently Israel hasn't articulated clear conditions under which the blockade would end.  One of the range of Israeli justifications Wright cites for the blockade, which may be most relevant to food restrictions, is "compelling the Palestinian population to overthrow the Hamas government."

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

November 21, 2012 | 9:43 am

Israel has American’s Sympathy, But At An Arms Length

Posted by Pini Herman

A Rasmussen Survey released yesterday: 

Voters tend to blame the Palestinians for the escalating violence in Gaza but also are slightly more are inclined to think the United States should stay out of the situation rather than help Israel. 47% said that  U.S. should stay out of an escalating Gaza situation. (The question wording: "Should the United States help defend Israel, help defend the Palestinians, or stay out of the Middle East conflict entirely?")

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds 50% of Likely U.S. Voters feel the Palestinians are more to blame for the escalating military conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Just 12% think the Israelis are more to blame, but a sizable 38% are not sure. Just 12% think the Israelis are more to blame, but a sizable 38% are not sure. 

The support of the majority of Americans for Israel was confirmed in a CNN/ORC poll conducted on Nov. 18, Tom Kludt of LiveWire writes:

Americans are predominantly supportive of the Israeli cause in the nearly week-long conflict that's engulfed the Gaza Strip, according to a poll from CNN and ORC International released on Monday.

Fifty-seven percent of Americans believe that Israel has been justified in its ongoing military strikes in Gaza, while only one in four believe the attacks have been unjustified. Moreover, "nearly six in ten say their sympathies are with the Israelis," compared with a mere 13 percent who back the Palestinians in the conflict. Eleven percent said they support neither side.

But despite the robust support for Israel, CNN notes that the poll still found division in attitudes along ideological, generational and gender-based lines:

"Although most Americans think the Israeli actions are justified, there are key segments of the public who don't necessarily feel that way," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Only four in ten Democrats think the Israeli actions in Gaza are justified, compared to 74% of Republicans and 59% of independents. Support for Israel's military action is 13 points higher among men than among women, and 15 points higher among older Americans than among younger Americans."

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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November 19, 2012 | 11:52 am

One in four Israelis preferred cease-fire as soon as possible and accepted it.

Posted by Pini Herman

A new survey (11/19/12) by The Israeli Center for Political Training reported by Arutz 7 reported that 26% of Israelis prefer to see a cease-fire put into place as soon as possible. This is significantly higher than the (11/18/12) 16% felt that Israel should agree to a cease fire in a survey fielded by iPanel ShiluvMillwardBrown.  

While different surveys will vary, if both surveys utilized sound methodology, this is a significant shift in the number of Israelis who are now for a ceasefire.

Both surveys agree that almost half of Israelis are still in favor of continuing the campaign, even if it leads to a ground operation.  As I do not have access to the detailed polling data, it is difficult to say which segment of the population is shifting most to supporting a ceasefire in the Pillars of Defense operation, now in its seventh day.

After the ceasefire was agreed on a snap poll on Wednesday 11/21/12 in the evening by Israeli Channel 2 covered by the TimesofIsrael found attitudes remained pretty much the same:

8:53 pm
A Channel 2 snap poll finds that 70 percent of the Israeli public does not support signing a ceasefire with Hamas, while 24% are in favor of it. Six percent say they don’t know.

Asked how long they believe the ceasefire will hold, 64% say they think it will last a short while, 24% say it won’t last at all, and 7% say it will last for a long time.

Asked if Operation Pillar of Defense reinstated Israel’s deterrence, 58% say it has been strengthened, 15% say it was weakened and 26% say it hasn’t changed.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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November 18, 2012 | 3:06 pm

Israelis Surveyed Say No to Ceasefire Majority Still Don’t Know or Against Ground Operation

Posted by Pini Herman

Survey of Israelis about Pillar of Defense Gaza by iPanel MillwardBrown as of now (11/18/12).

Should Israel agree to a cease fire?
16%      Yes
73%      No
11%      No Opinion

Do you support a ground operation?
46%   Yes
32%  Against
22%  Don't Know

Currently one-in-six Israelis are for a ceasefire, which matches the opinion of this blogger.

Update 11/19/12: 6th day sees an increase of one-in-four Israelis for a ceasefire.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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November 16, 2012 | 2:10 pm

Israel’s Dresden Not Unachievable in Gaza

Posted by Pini Herman

Dresden 1945

"Israel needs to do to Gaza what the Allies did to Dresden ."

That was Noshie63's comment on the Forward's website getting likes from fellow readers.  Having read Farenheit 451, but not knowing the actual Dresden casualty figures, I wondered what a contemporary equivalent carnage would look like.  It turns out that only using the estimated Cast Lead death figures, we are already one-tenth the way to a carnage equivalent to the firebombing of Dresden in World War II.  A current incursion into Gaza could be a bit longer and costler than Cast Lead and if 6,800 Gazan City residents are killed then a casualty rate equivalent to WWII Dresden will have been achieved.

Dresden in WWII had a population of 1.6 million and a 2010 historical estimate by the City of Dresden Historians Commission of the bombing toll put it at 25,000 civilians killed during the Allied firebombing of February 1945, a far smaller Dresden death toll than popularly had been believed.

The Gaza Strip which has an estimated total population of 1.7 million. Just for the 2008-9 Gaza Cast Lead incursion into the Gaza Strip, B'Tzelem put the total deaths at about 3,195. To achieve a Dresden equivalent for the Gaza Strip another 22,000 Gazans need die. In the event another Cast Lead type incursion occurs into the relatively small geography of the Gaza Strip and Gazan casualties are worse than Cast Lead, an awful parity with Dresden in terms of the human toll is conceivable. Without a ceasefire, a Dresden scale death rate in Gaza may not be as far off as one might think.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archive in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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November 10, 2012 | 8:24 pm

Israel isn’t the Wedge For Greying U.S. Jews Fast Polarizing to White

Posted by Pini Herman

Demography may be destiny

American circumstances rather than Israel seem to be what a motivates the Jewish vote.

Ronald Brownstein credits demographer William Frey with the phrase “brown vs. grey”, describing the growing competition and conflict between the two giant generations reshaping American life. The brown is centered on the 95-million-member millennial generation, born from 1982 to 2002 and now moving into the workforce and the electorate. The gray revolves around the 85-million-member baby boom generation born from 1946 to 1964, which is steadily moving out of the workforce into retirement but remains a huge voting presence.  

Israel as a wedge issue is passé according to Shmuel Rosner:

Many of the voters that were convinced that the Republican Party is better on Israel probably were in that camp way before Obama came along. 

The relatively precipitous drop in Jewish votes for Obama has been put in the context of the overall decline in total white vote for Obama.  While still firmly Democratic, according to Pew Research the Jewish decline was nine percent, the highest decline from 2008 measured for any studied religious group and over twice that of U.S. Whites overall, four percent.  Earlier I have described the as the "Jewish slide to white."

This may be indicative of a fast-growing minority of Jews abandoning social justice values and minority self-identification and in turn choosing the white and greying side in the grey vs. brown racial polarization generally evident in last Tuesday’s election.

This is a graphic illustration by the Pew Hispanic Center of the 2010 census finding showing the age composition differentials which are where the voting populace is heading:

Note that the age structure of the LA Jewish community in 1997 was characteristic of the current white population and if current studies were done would be shown to be even more elderly.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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November 8, 2012 | 1:18 pm

Jewish Identity’s Slide to White

Posted by Pini Herman

Jews may be sliding white

The drop in Jewish votes for Obama has been put in the context of the overall decline in total white vote for Obama.  But while still firmly Democratic, according to Pew Research the Jewish decline was nine percent, the highest decline from 2008 measured for any studied religious group and over twice that of U.S. Whites overall, four percent.  

This may be indicative of a growing minority of Jews abandoning social justice values and minority self-identification and seems to conflicts with Steven M. Cohen’s widely published assessment that:

“Whites votes for Obama dropped by four percent and Jewish vote for Obama dropped by five percent. Statistically that means there is no difference. And compared to whites, Jews are just as firmly in the Democratic camp as they were in 2008,” he said, citing a Workman’s Circle survey released in July that he conducted that indicated Jews make their voting decisions primarily based on views on economic justice and social inclusion."

Jewish office seekers should take heed, and learn from the example of Howard Berman, that the general electorate is demographically shifting and that perhaps the Jewish electorate is shifting in a different direction at a faster rate.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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November 7, 2012 | 1:04 am

Jewish Whiteness Doesn’t Get You Elected

Posted by Pini Herman

A Latino forum might have been safer

American Jews have maintained a complex relationship to whiteness. The 2012 exit polling preliminary results shows that 70 percent of Jews voted for President Obama, equaling the voting profile of Latinos and other minorities.

The Republican Jewish Coalition may be stunned again, peering out of the echo chamber of some Jewish wealth magnets, Jewish Orthodox, immigrant communities of Israeli, Russian and Iranians who identify with the American whiteness and privilege projected by the Republican party. These small American Jewish groups echoed repeated polling findings in Israel that reflected an affinity of Israelis for Republicans and perhaps the embattled American whiteness that they represent which may resonate well with Jewish Israelis who feel embattled themselves.

Locally, we have lost major congressional influence and power based on a simple campaign miscalculation of ignoring the votes of fellow minorities. Unfortunately, Howard Berman, who embraced Latinos throughout his legislative career somehow forgot them in his re-election effort and never wavered from catering to numerically miniscule constituencies who don’t share his core convictions. He ignored his natural Latino constituency, who would have embraced him just for his record if he had been a little more vigorous in sharing it with them. I mourn Berman’s loss.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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