March 29, 2013 | 12:26 pm

Pico-Robertson as a Demographically Stagnant Community

Posted by Pini Herman

Bumper sticker seen in Pico-Robertson traffic

The Pico-Robertson demographic trends were revealed in two enlightening articles of a center of local Jewish Orthodox resident by Jonah Lowenfeld in the west end of Pico-Robertson  and by Jared Sichel on the east end of Pico-Robertson. Jewish Orthodox areas are often constrained by walking distance to a synagogue that the Jewish Orthodox worshiper feels meet their needs.  Often synagogue planning and foundings are based on rosey projections as to their attractiveness to a particular type of worshiper.

Rather than sharing a rosey outlook, my basic demographic assumption about Orthodox Jewry in the whole of the Pico-Robertson area is that it at best is a stagnant population for the past 15-20 years and perhaps slightly declining in number.  That’s not a narrative local boosters like to hear.

The east end Pico-Robertson area, called by realtors Faircrest Heights, is an example of local Orthodox Jewish boosters talking up an area to entice others to move in.  This may actually create a viable Orthodox Jewish area, but at the cost to existing Orthodox Jewish areas which may become less viable.

The west end Pico-Robertson area example of Mogen David is an example of an existing legacy Jewish institution which was considered to be "traditional" with  mixed gender seating.

I was asked and agreed to consult on a voluntary basis in 1999 by the Mogen David board committee that was considering the shift to conventional Orthodoxy for before they placed a mechitza for separate gender seating.

I told Mogen David, 14 years ago, the best they could hope for was cannibalizing other Orthodox congregations further east because the neighborhood they were in was too expensive for their hoped-for orthodox congregants to buy into and too far to walk to, except for younger vigorous Jews.

Unfortunately, my judgement, though ignored, seems to have been accurate, as was mentioned in the Mogen David article Rabbi Davidovitz is still attempting to "attract 'floaters,' young people who feel disenfranchised at the other Orthodox synagogues in Pico-Robertson."

This "cannibalization" of congregants is symptomatic of a relatively small Orthodox population that is not growing and ultimately leads to a proliferation of synagogues which may not have to critical congregational mass to survive.

Mogen David is not the only synagogue to host a Sephardic congregation without the resources for their own building as this segment of the Orthodox population is even smaller than the Ashkenaz Orthodox population and doesn't have the historical resources to tap.

The article on the east-end Faircrest Heights is pretty much the same story, but with cheaper housing than on the west side of Pico-Roberts where Mogen David is situated. My guess is that the Faircrest Hts. area will valiantly struggle for the next decade and never achieve a critical mass in terms of Orthodox habitability unless there is an unforeseen Orthodox migration into LA from other parts of the US or abroad. I don't expect much local growth of the Orthodox community.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

March 25, 2013 | 12:07 pm

Israelis “Next Year in Jerusalem”  Much More Likely

Posted by Pini Herman

Israelis Coming to Los Angeles

Israeli-born Jews were found to be not a growing presence by the recently published New York Jewish Population Study.  The number of Israeli-born Jews in New York declined 6.5 percent in the last decade since 2002 when 31,000 Jewish Israeli-borns were counted and 2011 when 29,000 were found.

This is additional key evidence that Israel is not losing population to the key Israeli migratory destination in the world, New York.  The myth of mass Israeli migration has become an integral part of the Jewish civil religion recounting it’s own Exodus story.  One has to wonder why, when in actuality Israel retains its native born at rates much better than most developed countries.

For a people, one of whose main narratives is migration, and now is the most popularly celebrated Jewish ritual in existence, its not surprising that when currently there may not be an “Egypt” to flee from, other venues, such as the U.S. (“next year in Jerusalem) and Israel may stand in for a place to exodus from.  Unfortunately for popular beliefs, demography doesn’t seem to confirm the popular piety of Israeli Jews who remain in place and American Jews who viscerally react to Yordim, a pejorative for “those who go down” or fell off the Zionist wagon, that they fully intend to alight on in the future.

The other central narrative of Passover, “for you were slaves in Egypt” and it’s imperatives for social justice are much more achievable contemporarily  than the demographic themes of of the holiday and that is perhaps the main true strength of the Jewish people as well the ability to engage in wishful thinking about migration and migratory opportunities.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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March 21, 2013 | 2:02 pm

Israel Kept Silent About Weapons of Mass Depiction and Weapons of Mass Distraction

Posted by Pini Herman

Weapons: Atomic, Biological, Chemical, Information

Its been ten years since the invasion of Iraq and the “weapons of mass destruction” that were never found.  I can’t find any mention of Benjamin Netanyahu saying that he was mistaken when he spoke with absolute certainty about Iraq’s WMDs in September 2002 before the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

In 2004, Israeli lawmaker Yossi Sarid, a member of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, said that Israeli intelligence knew beforehand that Iraq had no weapons stockpiles and misled US President George W Bush. Sarid told the Associated Press:

It was known in Israel that the story that weapons of mass destruction could be activated in 45 minutes was an old wives' tale....Israel didn't want to spoil President Bush's scenario, and it should have.

Israeli critics of its government say Ariel Sharon maintained the state of alert for its own political reasons, to help galvanise public opinion in favour of harsh steps against the Palestinians.  Essentially using the Weapons of Mass Destruction scenario as a Weapon of Mass Distraction.

Why is a demographer engaged in “political analysis?” Being a demographer, I’m often put into the situation of actually looking at data and then seeing the depiction of masses of people who aren’t actually there or seeing masses of phenomenon that are depicted as non-existent and are very much present.  Often these “weapons of mass depiction” also serve as “weapons of mass distraction” to enable the masking of policies, actions, avoiding discomfort and maintenance of relationships.  For the most part, in democracies, there isn’t intentional deception, but rather mistaken assumptions, pursuit of convenience and avoidance of confrontations, disruptions and change.

Some weapons of mass depictions that I have pointed out in the past have been what I believe to be the “million American Jew mistake,” tons of Kaparot chickens ending up in landfill instead of in the hands of the needy; large numbers of Israelis immigrants in the U.S. when their numbers are very modest; nonprofits displaying great public benefit when it is rather modest, non-existent or may be actually harmful to the public.  Inaccurate mass depictions often serve as mass distractions which lead to continuing victimization, disempowerment and they are often stumbling blocks put up before individuals and public that can be blinded to the point of distraction, continuing to trip over obstacles.  One of the primary injunctions of Judaism is “Do not put obstacles before the blind.”

To continue with Benjamin Netanyahu, he seems to have followed Prime Minister Begin's 1981 mistaken understanding and depiction of Iraq's nuclear capabililty. Marlfrid Braut-Hegghamer wrote recently in an NY Times Op Ed:

Netanyahu’s proposed solution for dealing with Iran — a targeted attack — also builds on a historical lesson from Iraq. Unfortunately, it is the wrong lesson. In 1981, Israeli pilots destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor complex as it stood on the verge of becoming operational. As Avner Cohen, an expert on nuclear weapons, recently wrote in Haaretz, this decision resulted from Prime Minister Menachem Begin’s flawed interpretation of intelligence. (His decision was strongly opposed by Shimon Peres, then defense minister and deputy prime minister.)

Israelis tend to credit this attack for denying Iraq a nuclear weapons capability. However, sources that have emerged since 2003 demonstrate that the attack created an unprecedented Iraqi consensus about the need for a nuclear deterrent and triggered a more intensive effort to acquire them. By the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq stood on the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability.

There are many ways to depict and analyze something and all should be open for discussion and examination.  It would be nice if people would also own up their errors rather than creating new distractions.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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March 14, 2013 | 11:26 am

Israel May Be Main Topic In Next National Jewish Population Survey of the U.S.

Posted by Pini Herman

And Then We Wait For the Slings And Arrows

If the new planned national surveys of Jewish population confirm what has been clear to demographer Sergio DellaPergola and myself and some other demographers that Israel has overtaken the U.S. in the last decade in having the largest Jewish population in the world, this may be world changing, at least cartographically and perhaps cognitively.  There will be two independent scientific opportunities to test this hypothesis.  This may be a historic milestone in how American and world Jews and Israelis view one another as the Jewish population balance point shifts geographically off the shores of the U.S. ends up somewhere around the Jews of Rome, Italy.

Israelis living in the U.S. may again be proven to be a tiny fraction, about 2 percent, of the U.S. Jewish population, as I have termed this group as the “Jews of the Jews” in the U.S. This will be attacked as unbelievable to most Israelis and many in the organized American Jewish community and held up to ridicule.

Israel may again be shown as a blip on the radar screen of concerns of the majority of American Jews.  This too will be roundly attacked by many in the organized Jewish community as it sound's too much like Iran's Ahmadinejad's evaluation of Israel in his UN speech of last year, but it may be the most concerning of issues found in the upcoming surveys.  The debate of what constitutes a blip may rage.

Intermarriage, which made headlines when the 1990 NJPS was released, may be old news.  If my colleague Bruce Phillips is correct, intermarriage may now be declining. If so, expect an attack on the surveys  from Jewish orthodoxy that their prognosis of ever growing intermarriage and the eventual disappearance of non-Orthodox Jewry in the U.S.  The Jewish Federations and non-Orthodox denominations may of course jockey for credit for somehow doing their jobs and the decline in intermarriage.

If a question regarding the Jewish denominational upbringing of respondents is included, the trend of denominational shifting in the direction of, from Orthodox to Conservative to Reform to Just Jewish and No Religion, will likely continue to the consternation of all the denominations.  The Orthodox will again loudly claim that the survey somehow methodologically missed them and all those new practitioners to Jewish Orthodoxy are not being counted.

As in Israel, the economic polarization and fall off of the middle class and the lack of social services may be found in the U.S. among its Jews.  It’s doubtful that this will cause recriminations, because its probably not going to be studied. It will remain invisible this decade for U.S. Jewry as the Jewish Federations of North America has disassociated itself from all the planned Jewish population studies.  There will be no questions about existential needs such as employment, occupations, utilization of services funded by the Jewish community for those in need.  Somehow the Jewish Federations of North American forgot its roots of mutual aid and the measurement of those needs.  Picturesque needy waifs, elderly and  other media suitable graphics suffice to prove need and effectiveness at meeting those needs among American Jews.

All of this is in anticipation of the planning of not one, but two major surveys of America’s Jews. One planned by the Pew Research Center is closer to fruition, and the second in earlier development by the Berman Jewish Policy Archives at New York University, are coming down the pike.  The surveys  are designed to complement each other with enough overlap to aid in calibrating and adding to scientific research methodology and knowledge.  The surveys share expert advisors formally and informally, but each will hew to the historical areas of expertise of their respective institutions, the Pew Research Center and the Berman Jewish Policy Archives, primarily for reasons of resource maximization.  Surveys are expensive to field and national surveys on a relatively tiny population group, such as the estimated 2 percent of American Jews, are especially expensive when you have to successfully randomly interview 98 non-Jews to find two Jews.  Six hundred to eight hundred contact attempts are not unusual to complete those 100 household interviews to yield two Jewish households.

The Berman Jewish Policy Archive’s National Jewish Population Survey, which in the inexplicable absence of JFNA’s involvement, is now a vitally important survey informing Jewish communal and social policy to be undertaken. The BJPA has garnered a $1 million grant that still needs to matched for the National Jewish Population Survey to proceed.

Why is the Pew Research Center studying Jews? It doesn’t only study Jews, it studies many religions.

Pew Research Center has conducted surveys of religious groups in the United States – including Protestants, Catholics, Mormons, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and the religiously unaffiliated – They have done so independently, not on behalf of the religious group(s) surveyed or on behalf of organizations that serve those groups.

Fortunately, the non-profit Pew Research Center receives funding from the  Pew Charitable Trusts and a few other foundations. This allows Pew Research Center to pursue independent research and their findings are made  freely available to the public.

The Pew Research Center is an independent, non-profit, nonadvocacy organization. The term “nonadvocacy” means, among other things, that Pew Research doesn’t take positions on public policy issues and doesn’t make recommendations to public or private decisionmakers. Pew Research Center doesn’t have clients, doesn’t sell their research.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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March 11, 2013 | 11:47 am

Two Surveys of U.S. Jewish Population on the Horizon - Finally

Posted by Pini Herman

Bean Counting to Discover the American Jewish Cholent

Usually surveys only make news when they are released, but two long overdue surveys of the U.S.Jewish population are being planned. The surveys are being planned by two different entities, the Pew Research Center and the Berman Jewish Policy Archive at NYU.

The two US Jewish population surveys seem not to be replicative of each other.  The Pew Research Center's survey will be in the tradition of its previous surveys of American religious groups. Alan Cooperman, Associate Director - Research, at the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life said that Pew Research is “not repeating the 1990 or 2000-2001 National Jewish Population Surveys and will not use the NJPS name.”   The Berman Jewish Policy Archives at NYU did call it's planned study a National Jewish Population Survey and will focus on gathering data relevant to  Jewish communal and social policy issues. Use of both planned surveys may create a more comprehensive picture of North America's Jews.

Rather than being undertaken by the Jewish Federations of North America, the entity that has historically undertaken the NJPS, and collected much money over the years from Jews by claiming that this is one of it's primary roles, JFNA, as an organization, is not involved in both the upcoming Jewish population studies according to Jessica Pallay of JFNA.  

The U.S. Jewish survey being currently undertaken by  Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, (a project of the Pew Research Center) has an advisory council which has some members who are also involved with the BJPA 2013 National Jewish Population Survey planning..

A $1million for a challenge grant to the Berman Jewish Policy Archive at NYU Wagner toward the costs of conducting a 2013 National Jewish Population Study has been created. Challenge grant matching funds are being currently solicited. The research team leading the effort will be headed by Steven M. Cohen, director of the Berman Jewish Policy Archive, and Jack Ukeles of Ukeles Associates, along with David Dutwin and Melissa Herrmann of Social Science Research Solutions, and Ron Miller of Ukeles Associates.

Mandell “Bill” Berman, whose foundation issued the challenge grant, will serve as honorary chair of the BJPA study.

Now, the question is whether the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles will be inspired by the national initiatives and field a Los Angeles Jewish Population Survey last published in 1997, sixteen years ago.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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