August 22, 2012 | 2:56 pm

Communal Survival of Jews and Blacks in Poverty

Posted by Pini Herman

In a recent (June 29, 2012) Jewish Forward editorial on the major finding of the 2011 New York Jewish Community Study that found a high association between ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews and poverty, the Forward editor was moved to entitle her editorial:  “The Undeserving Poor?” The editorial described the the source of Orthodox poverty as primarily attributed to the “choice” of having large families.

Perhaps a more accurate description should be that the ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews are “programmed” for communal survival.

Worried about the continued existence of their culturally rich community, Haredis fear and instinctually know what Jewish population surveys have repeatedly shown: The majority of their sacrifice to lead their children to a full lifespan of Orthodoxy will not pay off. Only four-in-ten people raised Orthodox as children remained so in adulthood according to the 2000-01 National Jewish Population Survey. At a 60% loss, having 6 children puts Orthodox families just a bit above replacement level at 2.4 children. The Orthodox community’s loss happens to be the main source for the replenishment of the waning numbers of Conservative Jews and also supplies one-in-ten current Reform Jews.

How much actual childbearing “choice” these communities have, if they are to remain viable communities, is open for debate.

It may not be a stretch to find a contemporary rough analogy to the Haredi in America to the fertility of the poor Black American community. Poor Black females know from experience, and statistics amply bears out, that the likelihood of having a child with a Black male mate who will survive to adulthood and not be incarcerated is low.  By not adapting to this American reality, the culturally rich, Black poor community could be in danger of losing its
demographic viability to remain in existence.

The “protection” of the yeshiva for poor black hatted Haredi males may be for poor Black males be “sitting” in a prison. Black men have a 28 percent chance of incarceration during their lifetime, and as found by demographer Evelyn Patterson, have a better survival rate in prison than outside of prison.  Homicide, usually outside of prison, is the leading cause of mortality for Black men between the ages of 15 and 34. It may tragically be that black men survive better in prison because they are more physically secure and get better health care behind bars than they do in their communities.

Interestingly, the largest American Haredi community shares not only the Williamsburg and Boro Park sections of Brooklyn geography with a poor Black community, but perhaps also similar coping mechanism for ensuring their demographic and communal vitality as well as a sense of being oppressed by outsiders.

I find it interesting that the narratives of the African American poor and Jewish poor communities may be again intertwined by the circumstances of our divergent histories of oppression and economic challenge. Though the sources of communal challeng may diverge greatly there may be great commonality in the goals of physical survival and communal vitality.

I doubt that the editors of the Jewish Forward would term the poor Black community as “undeserving poor.” Perhaps the poor Haredi community might be looked upon less judgmentally by others in the Jewish community.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

August 6, 2012 | 12:45 pm

Israeli Settler Boom Mostly Driven by Quality of Life

Posted by Pini Herman

Independence Day at Na'ale

Jewish population growth in Israel since 2000 has been 20 percent. The growth in the West Bank settlements has been 80 percent, or four times the growth rate of the country as a whole. The Jewish settlers on the West Bank have passed the 350 thousand mark, about two-thirds as many Jews that live in Los Angeles. As many Angeleno Jews commute to work, most settlers not working from home have to commute to employment primarily in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

It seems not to be true, as has been reported:

Most of the growth –- now about 4.5% annually –- is coming outside the major settlement blocs in areas that are not expected to become part of Israel under a two-state solution, according to a report Thursday in the pro-government Israel Hayom newspaper

as conveyed by the LA Times Edmund Sanders.

My analysis indicates that most of the last decade’s growth is actually coming from settlements boasting proximity to Israeli urban centers, job markets and major settlement blocs. Israelis don’t seem to be voting with their feet and migrating to West Bank settlements which don’t offer a “quality of life” which usually translates into security and convenience. Perhaps the term “settlement blocs” is malleable to suit ideological orientations.

Using recent data from 2010, the two fastest growing West Bank settlements, Na’ale and Adam are secular have grown six-fold and three-fold respectively.  Na’ale, was founded and settled by employees of Israel Aircraft Industries which is a 29 minute commute away according to Google Maps. The third fastest growing is Kochave Ya’acov a religious West Bank settlement has grown two-and-a-half times and it is 28 minutes drive from Jerusalem.

Much of the settler population boom has been caused by natural increase in predominantly religious West Bank settlements, but these are also usually within the main settlement blocs. Modi’in Illit, thirty minutes drive from both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, has almost doubled in population in the last decade. Modi’in Illit had an annual growth rate of 11 percent in 2009. An estimated 80 percent of the population is under age 30 and in 2006 the city’s median age stood at 10, the lowest of all Israeli municipalities.

Its fairly clear to me that most West Bank Jewish population growth is actually inside and not outside the major settlement blocs in areas that are expected to become part of Israel under a two-state solution.  This seems to indicate that Jewish West Bank settlement is less driven by ideology and more by quality of life issues.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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August 2, 2012 | 4:13 pm

Israeli American Voters Could Be Numerous as Ballots Cast by Corporations

Posted by Pini Herman

The elections are growing closer Mitt Romney and Howard Berman have something uncomfortably in common. The don’t seem to be doing their demographic research as to whether the voters they are pursuing actually exist.

Romney wasn’t warned by Jewish Republicans in time to prevent raised eyebrows about reports that he intended to attend a $50-60 thousand a plate fundraiser in Jerusalem on the day of the Tish’a B’Av fast.  That should have been Romney’s first clue about his Jewish supporters.

The Republican Jewish Coalition head Ari Fleischer and his entourage traveled 5,683 miles to Israel, more miles than there are potential American Republican voters which I estimate to be around 2,500, in Israel.

The Republican Jewish Coalition has created estimates that roughly 150,000 U.S. citizens and eligible votersare living in Israel, including many from key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. So the RJC is organizing a registration drive in Israel.

The 2011 Statistical Abstract of Israel shows 154,000 originating from North America and Oceania, meaning primarily the U.S., Canada and Australia, of which 59 percent are Israeli-born, thus not likely to have registered to vote in the U.S.  That leaves about 64,000 of which 86% are Americans, leaving 55,000, if similar rates of registration and voting occurs as in the U.S. for Jews, then about 81 percent would vote in the best case, which would leave 45,000.

45,000 potential voters is optimistic because of another hurdle to voting. Americans don’t vote directly for U.S. president, we vote for Electors from each state.  Therefore, American citizens ages 18 and older can register to vote. To register, voters must meet the residency requirements of their states, which vary, and comply with voter-registration deadlines.

It would take a truly rabid political Israeli American political animal to maintain after a number of years registration in their last state of residence.  So if an optimistic 10 percent of Israeli Americans did so, only 4,500 might vote.  Let’s say Israeli Americans buck the Democratic voter trend and half vote Republican, that translates to 2,500 potential votes for Romney.

Romney has lost a lot of credibility for his missteps on this foreign foray. He changed the scheduled Tisha B’av fundraiser and didn’t have time to travel a three-quarters of an hour by car and visit the Palestinian Authority’s leaders as well as gratuitously insulting them with insensitive remarks.  Actually, Palestinians are sometimes called the Jews of the Arab world because of their parallel emphasis on education, entrepreneurship and economic achievements in the Diaspora.

Now more locally to Congressman Howard Berman

I can’t understand why Howard Berman is not pursuing the Latinos in the newly configured West San Fernando Valley Congressional District 30. Unfortunately Howard Berman is endangering his re-election by efforts to curry favor with Israeli American voters who actually don’t exist in enough numbers to elect him even to the LA City Council if the race was close. As of the 2010 U.S. Census the average population of a congressional district was 710,494. Israelis by the widest definition constitute less than 30 thousand living all over Los Angeles.  There are roughly 76 thousand Latino citizens of voting age who have the choice between two Jewish congressman.  Berman is beloved by Doris Huerta, organizer along with Cesar Chavez, of the United Farm Workers, when I met her urged me to work to support Berman and was fearful of losing him in Congress. 

As a California state legislator, Berman authored the landmark legislation that established agricultural collective bargaining in California in 1975. That law helped Cesar Chavez, Dolores Huerta and the United Farm Workers achieve unprecedented successes in agricultural union organizing.  Rep. Berman co-authored the agricultural worker “legalization” program in the 1986 immigration legislation, providing one million farmworkers with the opportunity to become full-fledged members of our society.  He has been a major Congressional supporter of publicly-funded legal services for farmworkers and other poor people. Rep. Berman has defended farmworkers’ rights during the as agricultural employers have lobbied strenuously for rollbacks in farm labor laws.

There are lots of congress members on the Israel train. With Berman, I’d like to be able to continue to brag about that kind of forty-year record of a Jewish congressman to every Latino I know.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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