July 30, 2012 | 11:38 am

Israel, Jewish numbers, and Population are Quite The Topic

Posted by Pini Herman

Time to Count the Community

It’s been a popular topic for demography in the local print media and even in the hand-written bible reading over the past weeks.

We recently completed reading the weekly Torah portions of the book whose title in Hebrew ba’midbar or “Wilderness” ends up being called “Numbers” in English.  Why Numbers?  The answer that Moshe Sokolow provides is that the English is a translation of not the book’s current Hebrew title but its classical one: Humash ha-Pikkudim, meaning, literally, the Pentateuch book of censuses, which the Greek Septuagint rendered as “Arithmoi.”

The Los Angeles Times’ excellent 5 part series this week “Beyond 7 billion” couldn’t have been written without the census counts and surveys aggregated by agencies such the U.S. Census Bureau and it’s International Data Base (IDB) which currently covers 227 countries and areas with current populations of 5,000 or more.  It provides a context that that underscores the often repeated fact Israel and Jews don’t stand out numerically and are a relatively smaller proportion of the world’s population. 

The stagnant population growth of Jews could change with the increasing transparency of world faith systems enabled by technology as well as the increasing genomic transparency of people’s personal genomes, e.g. 20 percent of Catholic men in Spain and Portugal had Y chromosomes that indicated they were of Sephardic Jewish ancestry.  A passing interest in personal genetics of a multitude of the “newly informed”  may spark a generation of seekers with unprecedented access and sources to Jewish knowledge and traditions which could have significant demographic consequences for the Jewish people.

This brings us back to the lack of the counts of Jewish people here in Los Angeles and nationally highlighted in a feature article by Julie Gruenbaum Fax in this week’s Jewish Journal.  The consequences of the lack of reliable counts of L.A. Jews is well-covered.  Another consequence of what I documented as the “one million Jew mistake” and the lack of a national Jewish population survey is that we can’t even say for sure that Israel has become country with the most Jews in the world, which would be a milestone of perhaps spiritual, ideological and historical proportions.

Jewish counts are still missing in LA and the US.  The interest and consensus for doing the counts is widespread. The segments of the organized Jewish community who have traditionally undertaken this important counting task are pleading, unlike their predecessors, that they are just not up to it with all the other pressing needs that are taxing their resources.  The one constant about the organized Jewish community, resources are always overtaxed….at least that’s what the fundraising pitches always points out.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

July 18, 2012 | 11:31 am

Israelis Turning Up Noses to Migratory Opportunities

Posted by Pini Herman

Twelve Cuban migrants in 2003 were 40 miles to America in a 1951 Chevy pickup truck "boat" and then sent back

It’s pretty clear, from recent and reliable data, that Jewish Israeli-born emigration from Israel is significantly lower at 4 percent than the emigration of native-borns of other comparable countries which averages 8 percent. This was reinforced by the likely declining number of Israeli-born Jews living in New York.

The highest percentage in the world, 25 percent,  of Jewish people not living in the country they were born in also happens to be in Israel.

The people with the lowest emigration rate are living in very close proximity, often immediate family members with the highest emigration rate.  Additionally, earlier research and Israeli media has indicated that both native and non-native Jewish Israelis have very high rates of application for and possession of passports from countries other than Israel.

So why is the emigration rate from Israel so low in spite of a high potential for migration?  Israelis historically prefer to migrate to certain countries, primarily the U.S. and to a much lesser extent to other Western democracies.  This are the countries which are highly desired by migrants worldwide and therefore the migratory slots are highly controlled and limited.

Emigrants from other countries have a wider palate of countries, often including neighboring countries that they consider as serious migratory destinations, not so in the case of Jewish Israelis.  For most Israelis it’s “America or Bust” mostly first New York/New Jersey and to a lesser extent and later, to California and other states.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is immediate past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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July 17, 2012 | 12:42 pm

Israeli-borns decline in New York Since 2002

Posted by Pini Herman

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All the non-Jewish and Israeli gathered demographic indicators have shown Israeli-born migration to the U.S. to be a relatively modest phenomenon.  The recently published New York Jewish Community Study may have indicated a decline or stagnation in the number of Israeli-borns in New York this past decade.

The new survey found that in 2011, 29,000 Jews were living in the eight-county New York area, approximating the 31,000 found in 2002.  This may be an indicator confirming the relatively low out-migration of Israeli natives from Israel.  A long deferred national Jewish population study could confirm this important trend for American and Israeli Jewry.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is immediate past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

July 6, 2012 | 12:21 pm

Israel: A Republican Swing State?

Posted by Pini Herman

The instability of the Arab Spring may have pushed a few more Israelis to be wishing they were not a part of the Middle East, but rather to think of Israel as the fifty-first U.S. state.  The instability of the Romney campaign may have the Republican Jewish Coalition head Ari Fleischer and his entourage traveling 5,683 miles to Israel, more miles than there are potential American Republican voters which I estimate to be around 2,500, in Israel.

The Republican Jewish Coalition has created estimates that roughly 150,000 U.S. citizens and eligible voters are living in Israel, including many from key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. So the RJC is organizing a registration drive in Israel.

The 2011 Statistical Abstract of Israel shows 154,000 originating from North America and Oceania, meaning primarily the U.S., Canada and Australia, of which 59 percent are Israeli-born, thus not likely to have registered to vote in the U.S.  That leaves about 64,000 of which 86% are Americans, leaving 55,000, if similar rates of registration and voting occurs as in the U.S. for Jews, then about 81 percent would vote in the best case, which would leave 45,000. 

45,000 potential voters is optimistic because of another hurdle to voting. Americans don’t vote directly for U.S. president, we vote for Electors from each state.  Therefore, American citizens ages 18 and older can register to vote. To register, voters must meet the residency requirements of their states, which vary, and comply with voter-registration deadlines. 

It would take a truly rabid political Israeli American political animal to maintain after a number of years registration in their last state of residence.  So if an optimistic 10 percent of Israeli Americans did so, only 4,500 might vote.  Let’s say Israeli Americans buck the Democratic voter trend and half vote Republican, that translates to 2,500 potential votes for Romney.

Pini Herman, PhD. has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography,  Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work,  Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position (and author of the “most recent” 15 year old study of the LA Jewish population which was the third most downloaded study from Berman Jewish Policy Archives in 2011) and is immediate past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

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