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Posted by Pini Herman

Thousand Strong Ultra-Orthodox Battalion Swearing In
The 5,700 miles (9,200 kilometers) that separate New York and Jerusalem aren't the only thing that separate the Ultra-Orthodox communities. The fact that the vast majority of Satmar Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox Jews) who organized Sunday’s protest against Haredi service in the IDF are American born and only have to worry about keeping their U.S. draft registration obligations up-to-date may also be important.
One only has to examine US census data on areas where there are concentration of Hareidi residents and there are surprisingly few non-native born among them and even fewer Israeli-born.
The economic situation of U.S. Hareidim makes it even more unlikely that travel to Israel, or any substantial sojourn in Israel, is the lot of draft age NY Hareidim. There is no Israel gap-year educational industry for Haredi young men and women as there is for Yeshivish and Modern Orthodox post-high schoolers. Haredi high school-age and college-age youths geographic horizons tend toward New Jersey, New York, Maryland, illinois and other U.S. Yeshiva locations.
The recent Israeli elections found proudly anti-Zionist Satmar Rebbe Rabbi Zalman Leib Teitelbaum carrying cash to Israeli Haredi enclaves offering $100 to any Israeli Haredi voter who would sit out the Knesset elections. From the 40 percent Knesset gains of the non-Zionist Haredi United Torah Judaism Party, which went from 5 seats in the 18th Knesset to 7 seats in the current 19th Knesset, Rabbi Teitelbaum’s Israeli presence and media coverage only seems to have increased Israeli Haredi voter turnout.
The Haredi in Israel, who are actually the ones being drafted and are Israeli voters, had a major protest three weeks ago with an estimated 20,000 protesters. Interestingly, Israel's Haredi draft protesters were smaller in number than Haredi IDF draft protesters claimed for this week’s New York protest. The anti-Zionist Haredi New York protest may have been planned to capitalize on the Israeli government's jitteriness about this issue. The Israeli government has been so nervous, that last week the swearing-in of an IDF Ultra-Orthodox Battalion that hundreds of Hareidi soldiers in the Netzach Yehuda Haredi Battalion were split up to be sworn in at separate small army base locations to avoid mass Haredi IDF draft protests in Jerusalem where the IDF ceremony was originally scheduled.
The Haredim in Israel are confronting a major ideological split around the issue of Zionism. Many draft-age Hareidim are actually urging IDF service and now seem to be willing inductees. There is a growing new "Haredi" camp with the Hebrew acronym Hardal (Haredi Dati Leumi, translated: Haredi Religious Nationalist). This may be enraging the non-Zionist and anti-Zionist elements in the Haredi community, who may be more salient in the United States than in Israel, as many of the U.S. Haredi have already voted with their feet to not live in Israel.
Just as it was bemoaned a decade ago that the IDF officer corps ceased to be characterized by Kibbutziks, but rather Modern Orthodox who chose to sign up as officers after their mandatory military service, so too, the new Ultra-Orthodox draftees will likely start becoming officers this coming decade. A decent IDF officer's salary may be more alluring to Ultra-Orthodox young men than the oft described state-dole-mantained poverty of Ultra-Orthodox life. The Satmar Rebbe may foresee that this new occupational opportunity may drive up the cost for buying Israeli vote abstention in the Haredi community.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih

6.10.13 at 2:08 pm | Israeli Haredim Confronting Major Zionism Split

6.6.13 at 9:45 am | Whittier - Memories of the First Havurah

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4.22.13 at 4:00 pm | Demography and Geography only Growing in. . . (36)





June 6, 2013 | 9:45 am
Posted by Pini Herman

“All our kids married out!” “Not one married a Jew!” Several older Jews exclaimed spontaneously after my invited talk about local Jewish demography ten years ago to the members of the Whittier Havurah. I queried the members on a variety of other topics, being naturally interested as I was on the board, and later president, of another havurah, the Movable Minyan. I had long heard of the the Whittier Havurah, and it even figures prominently with a T-shirt in the current Jews in Los Angeles Mosaic exhibition at the Autry.

Whittier Havurah 1975
Being a demographer, I know from the research, rather than the hysteria, that intermarriage is not what most Jews do. The Whittier Havurah kids’ marriages that happened in the 1970s, when even in Los Angeles county, the Jewish intermarriage rate was less than 20 percent. So, the first known havurah, the Whittier Havurah, which Rabbi Mordechai Kaplan lauded as the harbinger of the new Jewish civilization, had kids who didn’t marry Jewish in a much more pronounced fashion than even the secular and ethnic Jews of that era.
A couple of years ago, the Whittier Havurah celebrated its fiftieth anniversary by declaring itself over and donating what remained in its coffers to the Reconstructionist rabbinical seminary. That was a strange choice of a group who broke away from rabbi-led rituals, who were described as forming according to the havurah’s resident historian, Shel Osman. “They shared their increasing disenchantment with the traditional and supernatural orientation of synagogue services,” Osman noted, “especially on the High Holidays.” and “We loved Judaism, studied it and read intensively,” recalled Rosalind Perle, a havurah member, “but could not abide with the ‘hocus pocus’ part.”
I mentioned that I belong to the Movable Minyan, also a havurah. The Movable Minyan is probably the oldest free-standing havurah, not part of a synagogue, which centered on Jewish ritual and study in Los Angeles. We marked our twenty-fifth anniversary at Shabbat service and will have a 25th anniversary banquet in the middle of June at a Kosher Chinese restraunt on Pico. The Movable Minyan similarly formed as a result of a distaste for organized Jewish worship as we experienced it, e.g. rabbi vs. board conflicts and disenchantment with the usual synagogue services. Perhaps some of the Movable Minyan founders also thought synagogue services a bit hocus pocus.

Movable Minyan 2005
But, there are major difference between the two havurot. The first one, Whittier, seemed a bit less child centered and seemed to emphasize creating and mastering new Jewish content. The Movable Minyan has always been child-centered and has focused on mastering, owning and challenging existing content and innovating from that point of departure. Now, for example, rather than sitting through boring high holiday services, we lay people, enjoy conducting our own high holiday services, adapting and adding so it is recognizable, but also uniquely ours.
Beginning a quarter century later than the Whittier Havurah, the Movable Minyan had the huge advantage of Jews who self-educated themselves to the value of the existing by the availability of resources such as the The Jewish Catalog, which this year celebrates its fortieth year of publication, which was, for a time, the bible of the Movable Minyan in its path of Do-It-Yourself Judaism.
We were just discussing, after our last Movable Minyan board meeting adjourned, the fact that we’ve never really discussed the issue of many of our children who are now getting their Master’s degrees, they might bringing home Jews as possible brides and grooms. I’m wondering if we'll ever have a formal discussion, or perhaps at the Movable Minyan’s 50th anniversary we will have the same plaintive cry as the Whittier Havurah. Rather than donating the treasury to a rabbinical seminary, the Movable Minyan will be able to count at least five rabbis who have received ordination after years of starting as lay-leaders at that havurah. But Jewish marriages don't necessarily need the benefit of clergy, so creating all the rabbis in the world won't make a Jewish marriage happen, but experiencing the warmth of a creative, inclusive Jewish community might.
Rozanne Keynan of Los Angeles writes:
Hi, Pini --
I, too belong to a chavurah that was formed 25 years ago by the Reconstructionist movement but which went independent shortly thereafter. The Reconstructionist office at first referred to us as the "West Side" chavurah, although not all of us lived on the West Side. At some point we were asked to choose a name, since the other chavurot had taken various Hebrew names. But we were nothing if not iconoclasts. One of our numbers, a working actress, jokingly quipped that we could be The Jets like the gang in West Side Story. The name stuck.
Although we are not a prayer-oriented chavurah, we have studied together and been at each other's life cycle events at our respective synagogues. Our composition and programming have changed over the years and our numbers expanded, and then contracted, due to some attrition and some members relocating away from Southern California. One original member describes herself as a "tag-along gentile," though she is central to the group. Another member had a midlife career change and was ordained as a rabbi. We "took in" a family of Soviet Jews and had the thrill of creating a bat mitzvah for each of their two daughters -- something their family didn't dream could happen. It was the first ever in the history of their family.
So far there have been two weddings, of the group's two eldest children, both to Jewish spouses. There remain seven unmarried twenty-somethings, and we parents have our fingers crossed that our children will find a "nice Jewish" mate. Of course, only time will tell. But born Jewish or not, the newcomers definitely will be second-gen Jets -- and, as such, welcomed with open arms to our no-holds-barred second-night seders, raucous Chanukah parties, Sukkot potlucks, beach parties and Hollywood Bowl picnic nights. As the Bernstein/Sondheim song says it, "When you're a Jet you're a Jet all the way."
Pini -- from Madeline S., a Jets member:
. . . some more authentic ways we have stayed inclusive and together: incorporating the life cycles that include diverse, but common and sometimes unspoken norms......elderly parents, illness, divorce, gay and straight children dating Jewish and non-Jewish people, and our beloved 'tag-a-long' gentile.
Reading and thinking about all this makes me, once again, want to say how much i value and love our havarah!
Richard Siegel of Los Angeles writes:
Thanks for sending this, Pini. Incidentally, I was just at the 45th Anniversary Reunion of the Boston Havurah (aka Havurat Shalom Community Seminary). Surprisingly still going, although quite changed.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
May 31, 2013 | 1:14 pm
Posted by Pini Herman

There are many non-Catholics, Jews perhaps foremost, who should be grateful to Andrew Greeley for helping to paint a religious landscape of America.
Sociologist and priest, Andrew Greeley passed away yesterday at age 85. In addition to his many accomplishments, Greeley was a senior researcher at the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center which fielded the first General Social Survey in 1972 and was the first ongoing national survey to ask a religion question, a continuation of Greeley’s groundbreaking work on the social effects of a Catholic education which overturned the widespread belief that Catholics had low college attendance rates. Greeley found that white Catholics graduated from college and pursued advanced degrees at higher rates than the general white population in the U.S. which was mostly Protestant.
Jewish researchers got their first taste of a national data-set, the GSS, which hinted at the actual population size of American Jewry and had 16 almost yearly series of data about Jews by the time the first 1990 National Jewish Population was fielded and served as a validation tool for the new, more comprehensive national Jewish data.
Its possible to say that if this Catholic priest who was never allowed to pastor a parish because of the facts that he found and published to the dismay of his superiors and subsequently was forced to turn his energies and life to research, American Jews would perhaps have never learned so much about ourselves through the data gathering that he help create over the past half-century.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
May 22, 2013 | 11:54 am
Posted by Pini Herman

Despite the valiant efforts of Emily’s List to support Wendy Greuel, Los Angeles seems to have passed on electing its first woman mayor. No woman was elected to any LA city office this election cycle. Many women, who are the majority of voters in the city of LA seem to have decided not to exercise their enfranchisement, or voted for the male candidate.
LA’s traditionally high rate of Jewish voter participation includes the city’s Jewish women who may have felt a greater loyalty to ethnicity than to gender. This election seems to have voted in three Jewish ancestry candidates, Eric Garcetti as mayor, Mike Feuer as city attorney and Ron Galperin as city controller who happens to be a rebbetznik, married to Rabbi Zach Shapiro. The Jewish vote was definitely consequential to voting in all three.

Ron Galperin, Controller Elect (on left)
While demographically Jews constitute an ever smaller percentage of the electorate, the high rate of voter participation still gives the Jewish community inordinate power on election day. When other potential blocs of voters, such as women interested in electing women, stay at home, the Jewish vote has always proven to be decisive.
In 1996, the effective Jewish vote size in the city Los Angeles was approximately 350,000, where 93 percent of registered Jewish voters had reported voting in the last four years, 22 percent had voted in 2 or 3 elections in the past four years and 27 percent reported voting in four or more elections in the past four years. There were probably over 150,000 Jewish voters in this LA city election cycle. The LA City Clerk estimates only a 19 percent of the 1.8 million registered voters in the City of LA of which an estimated 344,000 actually voted.
Jewish voters were probably half the total voters casting their ballots in this city election. The current mayor, city attorney and city controller elects were initially considered the underdogs to their non-Jewish rivals in this runoff election, but the voting patterns graphically represent that historically Jewish voting precincts won this election for Eric Garcetti and likely for Mike Feuer and Ron Galperin.
The following primary and runoff returns graphically illustrate that some of the precinct with known Jewish concentrations, especially in the west San Fernando valley switched to Garcetti in the runoff after supporting Greuel in the primary election.

Source: LA City Clerk Mapping: Los Angeles Times
Contrary to headlines, Eric Garcetti is not the first person of Jewish ancestry to serve as mayor of Los Angeles. JJ Goldberg points out that Garcetti is probably the third Jewish mayor of LA.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
May 20, 2013 | 1:23 pm
Posted by Pini Herman

Friday's LA Times above the fold story reads: "Cedars stands out for steep pricing."
With great fanfare the Obama Administration unveiled last week it’s latest effort to rein in skyrocketing healthcare costs by making available hospital cost data on the web. The information is a bit unwieldy to access, as it currently comes with every hospital in the country that receives Medicare payments. For the first time hospital price disparities have been made public.
It is hoped that the healthcare consumer will use this information to comparison shop and that this readily available information will cause hospital to be less arbitrary in their pricing.
Looking at the ten most common diagnosis that are treated at the flagship local hospital, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, and those same diagnostic categories at the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center in the context of all California hospitals there is already a significant cost divergence. UCLA is more expensive than 64 percent of all California hospitals in the ten examined diagnostic
categories and Cedars-Sinai is more expensive than 92 percent of all California hospitals.
For example, the most common discharge at Cedars-Sinai in 2011 was the diagnostic category “major replacement or reattachment of lower extremity...” e.g. a hip replacement for which Cedars-Sinai charged on average $110,123 or more expensive than 78 percent of California hospital and Ronald Reagan UCLA charged on the average $87,2011 for the same hospitalization or more expensive than 57 percent of all California hospitals. Cedars-Sinai did 728 of these discharges in 2011, while Ronald Reagan UCLA only performed 15, meaning that Cedars-Sinai did averaged two-a-day, while Ronald Reagan UCLA did perhaps, one-a-month. It might be worth the extra 26 percent price premium to buy the obviously greater experience with this diagnosis at Cedars-Sinai. Looking at this diagnosis locally, St. John’s Medical Center in Santa Monica discharged 922 patients in 2011 with this diagnosis with an average cost of $50,614, or at less than half of Cedars-Sinai’s cost and just a short commute away.
One must consider the volume of experience as well as the cost of each hospital in addition to a myriad of other factors. But since yesterday, this is the first time this price data is available to the consumer. Until the first easy to use apps arrive, it’s possible to download this California extract to do some local and regional hospital comparison shopping.
Data, just for California hospitals, courtesy of this blogger has been put into a downloadable spreadsheet format to enable a first peek at what is available:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmzDtDbKB9YGdDNkWFpnRFM1MmRFRGNMQU9pNTdYTXc&usp=sharing
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
May 16, 2013 | 11:13 am
Posted by Pini Herman

Charles Mesnick was instrumental in the development of the Los Angeles Jewish community. He was among the newly trained social work professionals whose voice and training demanded accurate demographic information and directly resulted in Los Angeles’ Jewish Community Council undertaking in 1952 the first major local Jewish Population study in the United States by Fred Massarik which incorporated random sampled telephone surveys.
The Jewish Centers Association of Los Angeles was for a sixty year period, from the World War II era to 2001 the largest single provider of direct services to the Jewish community of Los Angeles as well as the largest employer of unionized employees in Jewish communal service among which Charles Mesnick was central, initially as a worker, then management and then as founder and first president the the Jewish Communal Retirees Association which actively negotiated retirement benefits for it’s members among it’s other rich educational and communal activities.
Charles Mesnick, in early 1943, had his first position with the Soto Michigan Jewish Community Center in Boyle Heights (which was razed without warning six years ago) as the Center Director. From 1946 to 1952, he worked as Assistant Director of JCA
He saw the emerging need for resident camping. In 1949, he encouraged JCA to acquire the property of what became Camp JCA in the early 1950’s. In 1952, he became the Beverly Fairfax Jewish Community Center Director, located at 8008 Beverly Boulevard. The timing was to tie in with the transition of closing that facility and moving to the new Westside Jewish Community Center which started in March 1954 and is now the last remaining Los Angeles JCC. Charles Mesnick was its Center Director for ten years he led the Westside Jewish Community Center it served as a model to spur and spark additional facilities and programs throughout Greater Los Angeles.
Charles Mesnick was a major proponent of planning based on demographic research and was confronted with with continued population increases during his career until he retired in 1975 as Executive Director of the Jewish Centers Association of Los Angeles. His son, Michael, related to me that he retired at age 61, as he had been informed by his physician that he suffered from a heart condition and could not expect to live very much longer. Charles Mesnick proceeded to enjoy life for another 38 years and passed away last month at age 99.
While Charles Mesnick’s career was blessed with robust Jewish population growth and Jewish communal purpose, he represented a generation of communal builders, followed by a generation of communal maintainers and refiners blessed with a moderated growing Jewish population and Jewish communal purpose.
The most recent generation of communal leaders wish, imagine and herald a growing Jewish population that may, in actuality, be stagnant or significantly declining and cling to slogans of communal purpose and vitality where the reality may be very different. It’s clear from the sad decline of the Los Angeles Jewish Centers system, from eleven vital centers and camp to just a single actual multi-activity Jewish center and camp left in the past decade of decline.
The passing of Charles Mesnick does not mean that active planning that was at the core of his philosophy has also passed, but it underscores the need for the community to embrace it again if it wants to deal with problems of rapid population change that Mesnick experienced in his life and that are now upon us again, whether we want to recognize and deal with it or not.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
May 9, 2013 | 6:53 pm
Posted by Pini Herman

Having partaken of the Jewish hospitality of our Neighbors to the North at a number of life cycle events in Toronto, I like to follow their numbers, but they are amazingly stable, not declining or rising very much. The Canadians count their Jews. There is no separation of religion and state in Canada and state subsidies to recognized religious institutions are often based on the religion counts gathered by the Canadian census. Canadian Jewish religious day schools enjoy state subsidies which may partially account for greater availability of Jewish day school education in Canada.
In 2001 Canada counted 329,995 Jews in it's national census and 315,120 in 2006. The recently published 2011 national household survey found 329,500 Jews. When Canadian Jews reach about a half million, they will have about as many Jews as we may have in Los Angeles.
Not unlike the growth of “none” as a religious self-identifcation in the U.S., nearly one quarter of Canada’s population, 23.9 per cent, had no religious affiliation – up from 16.5 per cent a decade earlier, as recorded in the 2001 census. The question is whether Jews are leaders in this area. This 49 percent increase in a decade of no religious affiliation might account for the stagnation in the number of Canadian Jews. A Canadian Jewish population study would go a long way to explaining Canadian Jewish Population Dynamics.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
May 2, 2013 | 2:03 pm
Posted by Pini Herman

Millenials, born roughly between 1983 and 2000, that is approximately ages 14 to 30 are a large group, 41 percent of the US population, often called the baby-boom echo because the are the kids of the baby boomers.
This is an important group because it’s this group that is current going through school and college, pairing up, forming households and having children themselves. These are the consumers everyone is closely is watching.
Jewish baby boomers married later and had less kids than their non-Jewish counterparts and if Los Angeles is an indicator, using the data captured in 1996 for the Los Angeles Jewish Population Survey, only 23 percent of LA’s Jewish population is estimated to be millennials, currently in 2013.
The Jewish millennial isn’t finding many other Jewish millenials and probably spending most of their time in settings where they are an even smaller minority than their parents within their age cohort experienced as a baby boomer. The Jewish baby boomer may have been 2 percent of the general baby boom population, while the Jewish Millenial is probably less than 1 percent of the general Millenial segment of the population.
This means that Millennials need to work twice as hard than their baby boomer parents did to find a Jewish partner among the much more numerous non-Jewish Millennial members of the population. As marriageable Millenial Jews are rarer in the U.S. population, they may become more precious, not only to Jews, but perhaps also to the increasing number of non-Jewish Americans who hold Judaism in high regard. It would not be surprising that intermarriage among Millennials may increase as the historical phenomenon of some world Jewish communities approaching being “loved to death” may eventually become part of American Jewish history, but probably not within our lifetimes or the lifetimes of Millennials and their children.
American Jewish Millennials may be the first generation who may experience more philo-semitism than anti-semitism in their environment. Rather than organizing an Anti-Defamation League the Anti-Exaltation League may have to be formed to fight the attraction and
positive attention exhibited toward Millennial Jews.
Pini Herman, PhD. specializes in demographics, big data and predictive analysis, has served as Asst. Research Professor at the University of Southern California Dept. of Geography, Adjunct Lecturer at the USC School of Social Work, Research Director at the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles following Bruce Phillips, PhD. in that position and is a past President of the Movable Minyan a lay-lead independent congregation in the 3rd Street area. Currently he is a principal of Phillips and Herman Demographic Research. To email Pini: pini00003@gmail.com To follow Pini on Twitter: Follow @pinih
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