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July 7, 2009 | 1:52 pm

Should Israel Attack Iran?

Posted by Rob Eshman

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Sweep every other geopolitical question aside: the biggest issue facing the world right now is Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Why?  Because the repercussions of Iran’s unstopped push toward the development of nuclear weapons and their delivery system may include imminent war, uncountable human casualties, a massive disruption in oil supplies,  world economic collapse (that is, another one), —all of which may happen sooner rather than later.

The fact that Israel is taking Iranian nuclear development more seriously than any other country doesn’t mean it’s just an Israeli issue.  Israel took Islamic terror more seriously than any other country— until September 11, 2001.  In the mineshaft of extremism, Jews in general, and Israel in particular, are often the canary.

Israel knows that it must be prepared to act even if the world is unwilling or unable. The immediate question is: should Israel act now?

Those who care about this issue fall into two camps.  The Right Nows, who want to attack, um,  right now; and the Not Yets, who while reserving the military option, believe the time is not right, and other more peaceful actions may still work.

Should Israel Do It?

Ironically, people on both sides of the debate over whether and when to attack Iran use the recent unrest there to support their claim. The Right Nows say the unrest proves the regime is in firm control, regime change is off the table, and there is no other option.  The Not Yets say the unrest proves that the situation is fluid, and attacking will only galvanize the population and unite it with the regime.

The issues hit the headlines this week when CNN reported that President Barack Obama insisted in an interview that he did not give Israel the “green light” to attack Iran.

U.S. President Barack Obama rebuffed suggestions that Washington had given Israel a green light to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, in an interview with CNN on Tuesday.

Asked by CNN whether Washington had given Israel approval to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, Obama answered: “Absolutely not.”

“We have said directly to the Israelis that it is important to try and resolve this in an international setting in a way that does not create major conflict in the Middle East,” Obama said in reference to Iran’s contentious nuclear program.

In the interview broadcast from Russia where he is on an official visit, Obama added, however: “We can’t dictate to other countries what their security interests are.

“What is also true is, it is the policy of the United States to try to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” Obama said.

This would be achieved “through diplomatic channels,” he added.

But Obama’s public disapproval leaves many questions unanswered: Must Israel wait for US approval?  Is Israel facing an imminent mortal threat?  What other options are there to deter Iran?

After all—and here’s what the world needs to understand—Iran’s leadership has stated publicly it wants to see Israel destroyed.  With nuclear weapons it will have the capability to carry out that desire.  Israel must act, America must act, the world must act—but how.

Experts disagree.

The Right Nows make a convincing case that the window is closing on Israel’s opportunity to counter a mortal threat.

Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton made their case in a July 2, 2009 op-ed in The Washington Post:

With Iran’s hard-line mullahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unmistakably back in control, Israel’s decision of whether to use military force against Tehran’s nuclear weapons program is more urgent than ever.

Iran’s nuclear threat was never in doubt during its presidential campaign, but the post-election resistance raised the possibility of some sort of regime change. That prospect seems lost for the near future or for at least as long as it will take Iran to finalize a deliverable nuclear weapons capability.

Accordingly, with no other timely option, the already compelling logic for an Israeli strike is nearly inexorable. Israel is undoubtedly ratcheting forward its decision-making process. 

Bolton castigates Obama for trying diplomacy. The President, he writes, “still wants ‘engagement’…  with Iran’s current regime.”  He says this would be a huge mistake:

There are two problems with this approach. First, Tehran isn’t going to negotiate in good faith. It hasn’t for the past six years with the European Union as our surrogates, and it won’t start now. As Clinton said on Tuesday, Iran has “a huge credibility gap” because of its electoral fraud. Second, given Iran’s nuclear progress, even if the stronger sanctions Obama has threatened could be agreed upon, they would not prevent Iran from fabricating weapons and delivery systems when it chooses, as it has been striving to do for the past 20 years. Time is too short, and sanctions failed long ago.
Only those most theologically committed to negotiation still believe Iran will fully renounce its nuclear program. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has a “Plan B,” which would allow Iran to have a “peaceful” civil nuclear power program while publicly “renouncing” the objective of nuclear weapons. Obama would define such an outcome as “success,” even though in reality it would hardly be different from what Iran is doing and saying now. A “peaceful” uranium enrichment program, “peaceful” reactors such as Bushehr and “peaceful” heavy-water projects like that under construction at Arak leave Iran with an enormous breakout capability to produce nuclear weapons in very short order. And anyone who believes the Revolutionary Guard Corps will abandon its weaponization and ballistic missile programs probably believes that there was no fraud in Iran’s June 12 election. See “huge credibility gap,” supra.
In short, the stolen election and its tumultuous aftermath have dramatically highlighted the strategic and tactical flaws in Obama’s game plan. With regime change off the table for the coming critical period in Iran’s nuclear program, Israel’s decision on using force is both easier and more urgent. Since there is no likelihood that diplomacy will start or finish in time, or even progress far enough to make any real difference, there is no point waiting for negotiations to play out. In fact, given the near certainty of Obama changing his definition of “success,” negotiations represent an even more dangerous trap for Israel.

The only answer, says Bolton, is military force:

Those who oppose Iran acquiring nuclear weapons are left in the near term with only the option of targeted military force against its weapons facilities. Significantly, the uprising in Iran also makes it more likely that an effective public diplomacy campaign could be waged in the country to explain to Iranians that such an attack is directed against the regime, not against the Iranian people. This was always true, but it has become even more important to make this case emphatically, when the gulf between the Islamic revolution of 1979 and the citizens of Iran has never been clearer or wider. Military action against Iran’s nuclear program and the ultimate goal of regime change can be worked together consistently.
Otherwise, be prepared for an Iran with nuclear weapons, which some, including Obama advisers, believe could be contained and deterred. That is not a hypothesis we should seek to test in the real world. The cost of error could be fatal.

The Not Yets believe that while a military option should remain in force, exercising it now would be a huge mistake.

To them, the unrest in Iran PROVES that the military option would be worse.

As Yair Lapid writes in Yediot, the Israeli newspaper:

It will take weeks, maybe months, before we know where Iran is heading. Revolutions, by their very nature, do not break out – they evolve. The real processes do not occur in front of the cameras, but rather, behind the black hijab. Perhaps this is why the commentators, just like authorities, are always surprised when the point of no return arrives.

The American Revolution started as a minor protest at the Boston port over tea taxes; the famous storming of the Bastille, which became the symbol of the French Revolution, only secured the release of seven prisoners – four conmen, two madmen, and one sexual offender; three long years passed from the day Gorbachev took the stage during the 27th Soviet Party Congress and declared the “Glasnost,” to the day when the masses stormed the Berlin Wall and brought it down with hammers.

Events in Iran are fascinating because they tell us something about the human spirit and the fact that we were born to freedom; however, a long time will pass before we know how it all ends.

Meanwhile, the protestors are redrafting, in Persian, the timeless lines appearing in the US Declaration of Independence: “experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government.”

One-time opportunity
The collapse of the Ayatollah regime is, of course, everything Israel could ever hope for. We are not only talking about the nuclear issue, but also about much more immediate gains: Hizbullah will dry up, Hamas will lose its main source of strength, and Syria’s backdoor will slam shut.

However, everything happening at Tehran’s Azadi Square – the amazing coming together of young people, Internet culture, social ferment, and woman power – would not have happened had we listened to the regular bunch of hysterical screamers around here and attempted to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites.

What would have happened then? Exactly what happens around here during times of war: The Iranian public would have rallied around the leadership, a wave of patriotic fury would have swept through the whole of Iran, and Ahmadinejad would not have needed to resort to any fraud in order to defeat the reformists.

And so, using our very own fighter jets, we would have lost this one-time opportunity to see genuine domestic change in the Islamic empire of evil. The most absurd thing is that we wouldn’t even have known that we missed this opportunity.

This is the lesson; the question is whether there is anyone around here who would learn it. After all, our screamers always speak on behalf of history, but are never willing to learn anything from their own history.

It’s a tough call. And much of what makes it tough is that no one knows how Israel would carry out such an attack, and whether it would work.

How Israel Would Do It

As Haaretz reported earlier this summer, military expert Anthony Cordesman issued a detail report on how Israel would strike Iran.  It painted a very dark picture of the chances for success, and the possible ramifications:

Never before has such an open, detailed and thorough study of Israel’s offensive options been published. The authors of the 114-page study meticulously gathered all available data on Israel’s military capabilities and its nuclear program, and on Iran’s nuclear developments and aerial defenses, as well as both countries’ missile inventory.

After analyzing all the possibilities for an attack on Iran, Toukan and Cordesman conclude: “A military strike by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities is possible ... [but] would be complex and high-risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate.”

The first problem the authors point to is intelligence, or more precisely, the lack of it. “It is not known whether Iran has some secret facilities where it is conducting uranium enrichment,” they write. If facilities unknown to Western intelligence agencies do exist, Iran’s uranium-enrichment program could continue to develop in secret there, while Israel attacks the known sites - and the strike’s gains would thus be lost. In general, the authors state, attacking Iran is justified only if it will put an end to Iran’s nuclear program or halt it for several years. That objective is very difficult to attain.

Intelligence agencies are also divided on the critical question of when Iran will deliver a nuclear weapon. Whereas Israeli intelligence maintains it will have the bomb between 2009 and 2012, the U.S. intelligence community estimates it will not happen before 2013. If the Israeli intelligence assessment is accurate, the window for a military strike is rapidly closing. It is clear to everyone that no one will dare attack Iran once it possesses nuclear weapons.

Since Iran has dozens of nuclear facilities dispersed throughout its large territory, and since it is impossible to attack all of them, Toukan and Cordesman investigated the option of hitting only three, which “constitute the core of the nuclear fuel cycle that Iran needs to produce nuclear weapons grade fissile material.”

Destroying these three sites ought to stall the Iranian nuclear program for several years. The three are: the nuclear research center in Isfahan, the uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz, and the heavy water plant, intended for future plutonium production, in Arak. It is doubtful whether Israel would embark on an offensive with such major ramifications just to strike a small number of facilities, when it is not at all clear that this will stop Iran’s nuclearization for a significant length of time.

The study analyzes three possible flight routes and concludes that the optimal and most likely one is the northern one that passes along the Syria-Turkey border, cuts across the northeastern edge of Iraq and leads into Iran. The central route passes over Jordan and is shorter, but would not be chosen for fear of political trouble with the Jordanians. Using the southern route, which passes over Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, might likewise lead to political entanglements.

To prevent the aircraft being detected en route to Iran, the IAF would use advanced technology to invade and scramble communication networks and radar devices in the countries over which the F-15s and F-16s fly, so even though dozens of planes would pass through the countries’ airspace, they will not be detected. According to the authors, the IAF used this technology in the raid on the Syrian nuclear reactor in Dayr az-Zawr, in September 2007. A hacker system was installed on two Gulfstream G550 aircraft that the IAF bought in recent years.

A strike mission on the three nuclear facilities would require no fewer than 90 combat aircraft, including all 25 F-15Es in the IAF inventory and another 65 F-16I/Cs. On top of that, all the IAF’s refueling planes will have to be airborne: 5 KC-130Hs and 4 B-707s. The combat aircraft will have to be refueled both en route to and on the way back from Iran. The IAF will have a hard time locating an area above which the tankers can cruise without being detected by the Syrians or the Turks.

One of the toughest operational problems to resolve is the fact that the facility at Natanz is buried deep underground. Part of it, the fuel-enrichment plant, reaches a depth of 8 meters, and is protected by a 2.5-meter-thick concrete wall, which is in turn protected by another concrete wall. By mid-2004 the Iranians had fortified their defense of the other part of the facility, where the centrifuges are housed. They buried it 25 meters underground and built a roof over it made of reinforced concrete several meters thick.

The Iranians use the centrifuges to enrich uranium, which is required in order to produce a nuclear bomb. There are already 6,000 centrifuges at the Natanz facility; the Iranians plan to install a total of 50,000, which could be used to produce 500 kilos of weapons-grade uranium annually. Building a nuclear bomb takes 15-20 kilograms of enriched uranium. That means that the Natanz facility will be able to supply enough fissile material for 25-30 nuclear weapons per year.

Because the Natanz facility is so important, the Iranians have gone to great lengths to protect it. To contend with the serious defensive measures they have taken, the IAF will use two types of U.S.-made smart bombs. According to reports in the foreign media, 600 of these bombs - nicknamed “bunker busters” - have been sold to Israel. One is called GBU-27, it weighs about 900 kilos and it can penetrate a 2.4-meter layer of concrete. The other is called GBU-28 and weighs 2,268 kilos; this monster can penetrate 6 meters of concrete and another layer of earth 30 meters deep. But for these bombs to penetrate ultra-protected Iranian facilities, IAF pilots will have to strike the targets with absolute accuracy and at an optimal angle.

But the challenges facing the IAF do not end there. Iran has built a dense aerial-defense system that will make it hard for Israeli planes to reach their targets unscathed. Among other things, the Iranians have deployed batteries of Hawk, SA-5 and SA-2 surface-to-air missiles, plus they have SA-7, SA-15, Rapier, Crotale and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Furthermore, 1,700 anti-aircraft guns protect the nuclear facilities - not to mention the 158 combat aircraft that might take part in defending Iran’s skies. Most of those planes are outdated, but they may be scrambled to intercept the IAF, which will thus have to use part of its strike force to deal with the situation.

However, all these obstacles are nothing compared to the S-300V (SA-12 Giant) anti-aircraft defense system, which various reports say Russia may have secretly supplied to Iran recently. If the Iranians indeed have this defense system, all of the IAF’s calculations, and all of the considerations for and against a strike, will have to be overhauled. The Russian system is so sophisticated and tamper-proof that the aircraft attrition rates could reach 20-30 percent: In other words, out of a strike force of 90 aircraft, 20 to 25 would be downed. This, the authors say, is “a loss Israel would hardly accept in paying.”

If Israel also decides to attack the famous reactor in Bushehr, an ecological disaster and mass deaths will result. The contamination released into the air in the form of radionuclides would spread over a large area, and thousands of Iranians who live nearby would be killed immediately; in addition, possibly hundreds of thousands would subsequently die of cancer. Because northerly winds blow in the area throughout most of the year, the authors conclude that, “most definitely Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE will be heavily affected by the radionuclides.”

The difficulty involved in an IAF strike would become a moot point if ballistic missiles wind up being used instead of combat aircraft. The Iranians cannot defend against ballistic missiles. The study lays bare Israel’s missile program and points to three missile versions it has developed: Jericho I, II and III. The Jericho I has a 500-kilometer range, a 450-kilogram warhead, and can carry a 20-kiloton nuclear weapon. Jericho II has a 1,500-kilometer range, and entered service in 1990. It can carry a 1-megaton nuclear warhead. Jericho III is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,800-6,500 kilometers, and can carry a multi-megaton nuclear warhead. The study says the latter was expected to enter service in 2008.

The authors apparently do not insinuate that Israel will launch missiles carrying nuclear warheads, but rather conventional warheads. By their calculation it will take 42 Jericho III missiles to destroy the three Iranian facilities, assuming that they all hit their marks, which is extremely difficult. It is not enough to hit the target area: To destroy the facilities it is necessary to hit certain points of only a few meters in size. It is doubtful the Jerichos’ accuracy can be relied on, and that all of them will hit those critical spots with precision.

The study also analyzes the possible Iranian response to an Israeli strike. In all likelihood the result would be to spur Iranians to continue and even accelerate their nuclear program, to create reliable deterrence in the face of an aggressive Israel. Iran would also withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which until now has enabled its nuclear program to be monitored, to a certain degree, through inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. An Israeli strike would immediately put a stop to the international community’s attempts to pressure Iran into suspending development of nuclear weapons.

No Syrian response

Iran would also, almost certainly, retaliate against Israel directly. It might attack targets here with Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, whose range covers all of Israel. A few might even be equipped with chemical warheads. In addition, the Iranians would use Hezbollah and Hamas to dispatch waves of suicide bombers into Israel. The Second Lebanon War showed us Hezbollah’s rocket capability, and the experience of the past eight years has been instructive regarding Hamas’ ability to fire Qassams from the Gaza Strip.

Hezbollah launched 4,000 rockets from South Lebanon during the Second Lebanon War, and their effect on northern Israel has not been forgotten: Life was nearly paralyzed for a whole month. Since then the Lebanese organization’s stockpile was replenished and enhanced, and it now has some 40,000 rockets. Israel does not have a response to those rockets. The rocket defense systems now being developed (Iron Dome and Magic Wand) are still far from completion, and even after they become operational, it is doubtful they will prove effective against thousands of rockets launched at Israel.

An Israeli strike on Iran would also sow instability in the Middle East. The Iranians would make use of the Shi’ites in Iraq, support Taliban fighters and improve their combat capabilities in Afghanistan. They also might attack American interests in the region, especially in countries that host U.S. military forces, such as Qatar and Bahrain. The Iranians would probably also attempt to disrupt the flow of oil to the West from the Persian Gulf region. Since the United States would be perceived as having given Israel a green light to attack Iran, American relations with allies in the Arab world could suffer greatly. Toukan and Cordesman believe, however, that Iran’s ally Syria would refrain from intervening if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Regarding a possible time frame for an Israeli strike, the authors cited factors that could speed up the decision in this matter. By 2010 Iran could pose a serious threat to its neighbors and Israel, because it would have enough nuclear weapons to deter the latter and the United States from attacking it. Iran’s inventory of effective ballistic missiles capable of carrying nonconventional warheads could also be an incentive. The fear that the country will procure the Russian S-300V aerial-defense system (if it has not done so already) might also serve as an incentive for a preemptive strike.

So what should Israeli policy makers conclude from this American study? That an IAF strike on Iran would be complicated and problematic, and that the chance of it succeeding is not great. That they must weigh all of the far-reaching ramifications that an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would have, and that they must not be fooled by promises, should any be made, by Israel Defense Forces officers who present the attack plan as having good odds for success.

One of the conclusions from Toukan and Cordesman’s study is that it is questionable whether Israel has the military capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, or even to delay it for several years. Therefore, if the diplomatic contacts the Obama administration is initiating with Iran prove useless, and if in the wake of their expected failure the American president does not decide to attack Iran, it is likely that Iran will possess nuclear weapons in a relatively short time. It seems, therefore, that policy makers in Jerusalem should begin preparing, mentally and operationally, for a situation in which Iran is a nuclear power with a strike capability against Israel.

This is the place to emphasize Israel’s mistake in hyping the Iranian threat. The regime in Tehran is certainly a bitter and inflexible rival, but from there it’s a long way to presenting it as a truly existential threat to Israel. Iran’s involvement in terror in our region is troubling, but a distinction must be made between a willingness to bankroll terrorists, and an intention to launch nuclear missiles against Israel. Even if Iran gets nuclear weapons, Israel’s power of deterrence will suffice to dissuade any Iranian ruler from even contemplating launching nuclear weapons against it.

It is time to stop waving around the scarecrow of an existential threat and refrain from making belligerent statements, which sometimes create a dangerous dynamic of escalation. And if the statements are superfluous and harmful - then this is doubly true for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Of course, none of this contradicts the possibility of taking covert action to hamper the Iranians’ program and supply routes. When the IAF destroyed the Osirak reactor in Baghdad in 1981, the “Begin doctrine” came into being, which holds that Israel will not let any hostile country in the region acquire nuclear weapons. The problem is that what could be accomplished in Iraq more than two decades ago is no longer possible today under the present circumstances in Iran.

The continual harping on the Iranian threat stems from domestic Israeli politics and a desire to increase investment in the security realm, but the ramifications of this are dangerous when you analyze expected developments in Iran’s ballistics: It is impossible for Israel to ignore Iran’s capacity to hit it, and Jerusalem must shape a policy that will neutralize that threat.

In another year, or three years from now, when the Iranians possess nuclear weapons, the rules of the strategic game in the region will be completely altered. Israel must reach that moment with a fully formulated and clear policy in hand, enabling it to successfully confront a potential nuclear threat, even when it is likely that the other side has no intention of carrying it out. The key, of course, is deterrence. Only a clear and credible signal to the Iranians, indicating the terrible price they will pay for attempting a nuclear strike against Israel, will prevent them from using their missiles. The Iranians have no logical reason to bring about the total destruction of their big cities, as could happen if Israel uses the means of deterrence at its disposal. Neither the satisfaction of killing Zionist infidels, nor, certainly, the promotion of Palestinian interests would justify that price. Israeli deterrence in the face of an Iranian nuclear threat has a good chance of succeeding precisely because the Iranians have no incentive to deal a mortal blow to Israel.

Therefore, all the declarations about developing the operational capability of IAF aircraft so they can attack the nuclear facilities in Iran, and the empty promises about the ability of the Arrow missile defense system to contend effectively with the Shahab-3, not only do not help bolster Israel’s power of deterrence, but actually undermine the process of building it and making it credible in Iranian eyes.

The time has come to adopt new ways of thinking. No more fiery declarations and empty threats, but rather a carefully weighed policy grounded in sound strategy. Ultimately, in an era of a multi-nuclear Middle East, all sides will have a clear interest to lower tension and not to increase it.

But other experts have challenged Cordesman’s assesment.

The Weekly Standard interviewed Israeli intelligence experts who see many of the same costs as Cordesman but emerge with a different conclusion (maybe because they live in Israel):

Still, after the costs and benefits are weighed and the enigmas and imponderables are given their due, the Israeli experts come back to where they begin: Only after every other option has been exhausted should a military strike be launched. No one else went as far as former Mossad head Efraim Halevy, who warned that an Israeli attack would “change the whole configuration of the Middle East,” producing “a chasm between Israel and the rest of the region” that would have “effects that would last 100 years.” By far the dominant view in Israel is the view espoused by John McCain: The only thing worse than the consequences of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would be the consequences of a nuclear Iran.

Short of a full-scale military strike, Israel also has a clandestine option involving the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, sabotage of Iranian facilities, and targeted killings. Nor would this represent a new policy. As Ben-Israel, choosing his words carefully, pointed out, Israeli national security experts have been warning that Iran was 5 years away from producing a nuclear weapon for the last 20. Why do you suppose, he asked, it has taken Iran so long? After all, he observed, 60 years ago in the middle of World War II, it took the United States only a few years to produce the first atomic bomb, and no country that has set its mind to it has taken more than 5 to 10 years. Leaving me to draw the proper inference, Ben-Israel emphasized that clandestine operations can delay but will not destroy Iran’s nuclear program. And the experts agree that time is running out: Absent dramatic action—by the United States, the international community, Israel, or some combination—Iran is on track to join the nuclear club sometime between 2011 and 2014.

For a variety of reasons—President Obama’s attempt to engage Iran may prove futile, the international community may be unable to maintain effective sanctions, the mullahs may hang on to power, an Israeli attack might fail, Israel might elect not to attack Iran—Israelis are compelled to contemplate the structure of an effective containment regime. The challenges are immense. Realists argue that containment based upon the doctrine of mutual assured destruction worked for the 40-year Cold War and will work in the Middle East. But they overlook that in the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 it almost failed.

The realists also rely on a facile analogy. The distinctive variables that Iran and the Middle East add to the mix cast grave doubts on any easy application of Cold War logic. Iran speaks explicitly about wiping out Israel; the Soviet Union never so spoke about the United States. Iran is inspired by a religious faith that celebrates martyrdom and contemplates apocalypse; the Soviet Union was driven by a secular ideology that sought satisfaction in this world. And Iran has no dialogue with Israel; the Soviet Union maintained constant communication with the United States.

These complicating factors make it all the more imperative for Israel, if it wants to construct a successful containment regime, to convey to Iran that it has a devastating second strike capability and is prepared to use it. In addition, it would be useful from the Israeli point of view if the United States were to make Iran understand that America would treat an attack on Israel as an attack on it. And it would provide greater assurance still if Russia were to deliver a similar message.

So now what? 


288 Comments — Leave your comment

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whew:Both sides have convincing arguments but the problem exists.While you have the Israeli side planning attacks, you also have the other side planning on how to counter the “Impending” air strikes. In my hmble opinion, something needs to be done because the status quo makes the Israeli"s more vulnerable and that could be a life or death situation.  Conventional wisdom/thinking I don’t think will work.  Something that’s never been tried before and beyond the realm of present thought needs to be done. The Israeli’s have done things before that suprised the world.  They need to pull the ace out of their sleeves and do something so dramatic that the world will gasp.  What can they do?  Place fear into the Iranian government by a sample demonstration of whatever it takes even if that means placing a small atomic device with a remote control somewhere and holding the government to dismantle the nuke plants. Can it work?  Never been tried before. Crazy yes, like a fox? Maybe

Comment by sam corwin on 7/07/09 at 11:29 pm

This was an excellent column, comprehensive, fair, nuanced and informative presenting the best arguments on both sides. I would have a great deal more confidence in John Bolton’s assessment if he had advocated diplomacy as a means to handle any international problems in the best. I also believe that we must understand that those who advocated the toppling of the regime of Sadam Hussein did not understand how deeply it would empower Iran. Awful as he was—and he was awful—he was a useful counterbalance to Iran. Furthermore, Iranian militancy, its support of Hezbollah and Hamas, is now creating a strategic alliance between Israel and some of the Arab countries that may take some time to mature. Count me among those who advocate not yet, at least not the way that is being discussed in the papers. I would advocate moving back to the drawing board and thinking of other, more imaginative, more creative and perhaps more effective alternatives.

Comment by michael berenbaum on 7/09/09 at 2:59 pm

Thanks Michael. This is an infinitely harder call than Iraq because the intelligence is so much better, and the consequences of an attack so much greater.

Comment by Rob Eshman on 7/09/09 at 3:21 pm

Absurd. Iran has every right to develop its nuclear and missile technologies. In fact given the illegal threats by the US and apartheid,rogue Israel it has the responsibility to defend itself to go farther and actually develop its ICBM and nuclear WMD capabilities.We will all be safer once it does so to prevent another Iraq.

Comment by billrowe on 7/09/09 at 4:15 pm

In terms of the loss of innocent life, (Israeli and Iranian) a “pre-emptive” strike would seem the best alternative, although it is admittedly an option that is dangerous and will probably prove painful. 

The notion that deterrence of assured destruction would protect Israel is absurd.  Israel is a very small country.  Though Iran would loose millions of citizens to Israeli retaliation, the great expanse of its territory and the sheer size of its population mean that it has a much better chance of surviving any exchange.  Add to this the well known anti- Zionist zeal of the current regime and its stated intentions to destroy Israel and the answer seems clear.

What is more troubling is the possibility that Iran (or any other Islamic nuclear power) could provide a weapon to a terrorist organization which thereafter smuggles it into Israel or launches it from an “uninvolved” nearby state such as Jordon, Egypt or Saudi Arabia.  What are Israel’s options in such a case?  Retaliation is a far more difficult matter under such circumstances.

Comment by Scott Widitor on 7/09/09 at 4:43 pm

mr.obama is not a american in first place.who is to pock his nose in ISREAL. it is land of sun of god and god.ISREAL SHOULD DESTROEY IRAN EVIL.CRUASH HIM DOWN nd pisss on him. IF ISREAL DOEST NOT DO IT CHRIST WILL DO IT SOON… GOD BLESS ISREAL DEATH TO ISLAM…..............

Comment by BROWN on 7/09/09 at 5:06 pm

Iran is evil which dont have bomb blast, killing he is doing in other country enjoying his blood bath of innocent people in pasestine and all over the world born to the bitch nation…....fuck ur qumaniniiiiiiiiiiiiii

Comment by BROWN on 7/09/09 at 5:10 pm

It would be “lovely” if you deleted BROWN’S moronic ramblings from this comment experiment.
What has been forgotten is that Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are terrified of Iran. They have been on the alert regarding their own Shiite threat of overthrow and government upheaval.
Israel can do more with wealthy, oil rich “secret” allies than with a dramatically advertised deterrent.
Whether President Obama is being realistic or not, the U.S. has profound, clandestine connections to the members of OPEC who would love to stop the flow of Iranian oil and the export of Islamic unrest inside their borders.
Put down the gun, and pick up the cell phone to our “pals” in the Middle East.  Nobody, including the Israelis, has to do this alone.
Benjamin

Comment by Benjamin on 7/09/09 at 11:48 pm

HIT THEM HARD & HIT THEM SOON!

Comment by WILLIAM GOLDSTEIN on 7/10/09 at 1:50 am

Sane people resolve problems in a diplomatic fashion. Rational people can work out differences. I side with John Bolton in that he’s been in the forefront of diplomacy.  he knows what works and what doesn’t.  Threats and imposion of diee happenings failed to work on Israel, N.Korea, Iran and probably others The UN is a toothless lion that roars loudly.  An example of top level diplomacy was Neville Chamberlain and his talks with Germany (Peace in our time.)  He came home triumphant after selling out Czechoslavakia.  However he drew a line in the sand by telling Germany to leave Poland alone or else.  The threat became a reality.  The current situation in dealing with a madman (Destruction of Israel) blatantly stated has to be taken seriously because there’s muscle behind this threat. So, UN sanctions failed to work against Iran,  The US moving carrier fleets into the Gulf was/is a bluff and the Iranians continue to defy the world.  And, the arab world is scared.  Iran has extended it’s hand into Lebanon and into Palestine.  Is this the beginning of the new Iranian empire emulating Hitler’s expansion of Germany? I agree with Benjamin.  The answer to the major problem is for the arab countries to grow a pair of batzem, juevos and band together with Israel and fight the common enemy.  Obamas wait til the end of the year is just BS and more of the same diplomacy.  Israel can’t wait that long.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/10/09 at 1:54 am

7-10-09 first of all i agree with rob eshman that iran’s nuclear ambitions is the most urgent geopolitical issue facing the world right now.—put me in the column of “right now”. here i agree wholeheartedly with former U.N. ambassador john bolton’s assessment made on 7-2-09.—-however i propose a different scenario than that described by most “experts”. i believe the U.S.military is better suited for the necessary action to be taken against iran. the U.S. powerful navy fleet and air forces is in nearby waters close to iran. the U.S. navy’s ship to shore missiles and “stealth bombers”, which cannot be detected by radar or heard, accompanied by american satelight technology could cause havoc on iran’s sites, with minimum casualties on all sides. a missile attack would also eliminate the problems arising with overflies of aircraft in the region. the U.S. and its allies have many valid reasons to strike against the weapon systems developed by iran. some of them are: iran is supplying i.e.d. explosives causing many casualties in iraq and afghanistan, training, financing and supplying terrorist forces such as hamas and hezbollah as well as others. allowing iran to acquire nuclear weapons will encourage further proliferation of nuclear acquisition in the middle east region. it is furthere believed that “taking out” or heavily damaging iran’s unhealthy ambitions causing important delays in weaponry developement,—-will give the good people of iran an opportunity to “replace” the current evil iranian regime. this was recently evidenced by the several weeks of unrest in the streets following the so called 6-12-09 election held in iran. the current iranian regime posts the most dangerous and destabilizing factor in the free world today. bernard nichols

Comment by bernard nichols on 7/10/09 at 1:30 pm

I agree with bernards responses however I disagree with the military tactics. Because of the multiple sites that are involved and the distances involved new thinking is needed.  The US Navy ships are vulnerable but not the subs.  That’s one option but if I know what you are sending at me, I will take counter measures.  Do I believe the Iranian military has Russian advisors (Also N. Korean) in their command posts?  Absolutely.  Do I believe that there are American military advisors in Tel Aviv? Yes. So it’s not only two sides that are seeking better solutions to a military problem. If I expect a military attack, I will prepare for one.  What is more difficult to stop is attacks within.  But as I iterated before, fear is the greatest weapon of all.  Mass hysteria is more effective than military action.  Generate this hysteria and you’ve won without firing a shot.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/10/09 at 7:38 pm

maju terus pantang mundur Israel!kami mendukungmu.Jangan takut.I LOVE ISRAEL.GOD BLESS ISRAEL

Comment by MAY on 7/11/09 at 1:35 pm

I LOVE YOU ISRAEL.WE LOVE YOU ISRAEL FOREVER AND WHENEVER

Comment by mAY on 7/11/09 at 1:42 pm

i cant speak english very well but I LOVE ISRAEL.i aggre to comment by Mr.Brown"GOD BLESS ISRAEL AND DEATH TO KEDAR!”.To Jews,u is the best(very2 good).i always pray to you,ISRAEL.I LOVE YOU and My GOD bless you,always,forever and whenever..

Comment by may on 7/11/09 at 1:57 pm

A solution to the Iranian problem would be to “cut off
the “money supply” through Swiss channels, and if necessary, bomb the Swiss banks.  Better to squeeze off the money than to injure and kill people.

Bee Ellismanh

Comment by Bee Ellisan on 7/11/09 at 4:07 pm

this is the apple of gods eye,god will defend israel,read the bible ezekiel 38

Comment by ron on 7/11/09 at 7:06 pm

Sorry Ron:your last response falls short of reality.The Israeli’s will defend Israel and prevent a second Holocaust.Had there been an Israel at the time,there wouldn’t been a Holocaust. The bible thumpers looked for
divine intervention,the Zionists didn’t. Don’t let the same thing happen again.“Never again” has a special meaning to the Jews. There’s a time to pray and a time to act.Praying won’t stop rockets.Sderot is proof.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/11/09 at 7:47 pm

hi sam
i guess you are not a christian,god can not tell a lie,the bible never stated that it would delivery isreal from the germans,the reason for the holocaust is that they have not received ther messiah yet Jesus CHRIST,every prophecy in the bible has come to past,have you read the bible?
ron

Comment by ron on 7/13/09 at 8:56 pm

hi sam
please read this:
ezekiel 38:and 39
it spells out what god will do to all the nations that come against israel,God says this not me,if you take the time to read this you would understand that god loves israel but it has forsaken his son.
ron

Comment by ron on 7/13/09 at 9:06 pm

Ron: I don’t have a bible.  I don’t believe in astrology or divine intervention.  If I had a bible that’s the last place I’d find salvation. I believe in the here and now. Everyone has to eat etc and that is their sustanance.  After that you can believe in whatever you want.  You want to deprive me of my food which is my sustanance and this basically is what Iran preaches.  We will kill you in whatever form is necessary. Go back to your bible. Read it and weep. No I’m not a christian or a rabid jew.  I’m simply a human being.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/14/09 at 1:15 am

Zeke 38 will be triggered by israel’s preemptive strike

Comment by steve on 7/15/09 at 1:55 am

Sreve:  Think the Israeli’s have read or care about Zeke 38?

Comment by sam corwin on 7/15/09 at 7:22 am

hi sam
when you say we will kill you ?who is the [we],are god is the god of love and everylasting life in those who choose christ as there savior,he died so that your sins would be removed and you can enter the kindom of heaven.
i will give you the odds,lets say that we are only here and now as you say,i will give you a 99% that when we die that we go into the ground,and i will take 1% that when we die that there is a haven and hell,if i am right i go to heaven ,if iam am wrong i go into the ground,but if your wrong you will go into everlasting fire,just think about?
ron

Comment by ron on 7/15/09 at 4:53 pm

Ron: Believe in whatever you wish.  I don’t bet.  Stick to topic and quit trying to proslytize.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/16/09 at 2:16 am

No we shouldn’t , when we will think about G-d law for us?
Many people hate us,becouse when we are angry, we really too much mad then all of them.
I don’t know why we had this character,but we must be better.Why we think some one of us? I tell you why,becouse we every time(some part of people of our nation/not all)want to talk with G-d,but in many ways we saw a wall,again why?Becouse we don’t want to real talk, we think better we will see the wall,yes)) why? Couse H-e will asked us,mb in our mined.

Sorry for my english,just started to study it.))
Shalom my people.

Comment by Arthur on 7/16/09 at 3:46 pm

Everything Obama and Biden have said about this over the past couple of weeks is carefully scripted.  They want Iran to know that the US is closer to a military option than it was before the Iranian elections.  They’re also probably targeting specific elements of the Iranian government, trying to drive a further wedge in between factions that have gotten mad at each other as a result of the election fiasco.

Israel has apparently moved considerable military force from the Med into the Red Sea via the Suez Canal over the last several days.  They’ve since moved most of it back, but Israel doesn’t do this lightly - it’s expensive, and the Egyptians wouldn’t allow it without express permission from the US.  It’s probably just part of the same message the White House is sending - but it’s a pretty serious message.

To the extent that the Israelis are responding to increased “chatter” from within Iran about the readiness of the program, I suspect it’s chaff Iran is throwing out to get concessions from the US and the Russians.  Don’t forget the whole Iran thing is part of a much larger game between the US and the Russians.  Folks concerned about Israel might find this hard to hear, but Israel is a bit player in the larger picture. 

The US is telling the Russians “please help us stop Iran from getting nukes - that’s not in your interest or ours,” and Russia is replying “only if you drop this idea of ABM systems in Poland, NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, and generally acknowledge that all of the FSU states are our backyard.”  Iran in turn knows this and in time-honored fashion is trying to get the big boys into a bidding war for its affections.  Well maybe affections is too strong - but you get the picture.

In fact this whole business could be a side-effect of the meetings Obama had in Russia a couple of weeks ago.  The Russians thought he’d be a pushover like Kennedy; when he turned out not to be, they’ve no doubt gone around to all their contacts and said, turn up the pressure on the Americans.

One last tidbit - for the last two weeks, some of the crowds at Friday prayers in Tehran have been chanting “Death to Russia” in addition to the standard “Death to America” stuff.  What’s that about?

Comment by Jerry on 7/18/09 at 11:56 pm

Interesting but I think that the US is “Fronting” for the Saudis with Israel a distint second.  The movement of Israeli ships through the Suez Canal is interesting because Egypt is not on the best of terms with Israel.  I think they got pressured not from the US but from the Arab Emirates who are all afraid of an Iran with Nukes.
They live knowing that the Israeli’s have the weaponry etc to inflict mortal damage upon them but they also know that they’re safer with Israel than expansionist Iran (Gaza, Lebanon)having the nukes.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/19/09 at 12:25 am

“Death to Russia”
About that i can say only one thing, i don’t care!
Becouse it’s meaningless words,they chanting everything if you will pay them.I see how they are doing new society,but they think ,it can be like chines goverment do it,thats not the same thing,and 1-st of all Iranian people can’t think logycal,and they do not want to understand some problems,becouse their regilion telling about everything from the end of sens(everything sens).


))))Brothers jews help me with some literature to learn(study)english.I dont know what i need to buy.Can you recommend me some book or cources.

Or some online pen friens(pals))))
thanks 4 answers)/

Comment by Arthur on 7/19/09 at 11:35 am

Arthur, your spelling is good and your thinking is bad.  ALL Iranians can’t think logical?  You can’t lump all people together and where you are definitely wrong, if you read history, the Persian people were big thinkers in their time. I am not Iranian.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/19/09 at 7:38 pm

I’am telling about,their new history.They starting to think in other way,thats changing of their history made a big overturn in their mined.

p.s with my english i can’t write everything what i want).
I don’t like to use translator so think bigger on my eng)))/

Comment by Arthur on 7/20/09 at 3:27 am

You have got to be kidding me - this article is rubbish.  There is absolutely NO evidence what-so-ever about any Iranian nuclear weapons program.  None.  They are signatories to the NPT (unlike Israel) and they are doing this to create peaceful, civilian nuclear energy, not nuclear weapons. 

You morons are forgetting that Iran hasn’t attacked or invaded another nation in 500 years—what makes you think they are on the verge of attacking Israel?

It’s unbelievable how stupid you people are.  Even America’s own intelligence agencies say there is no evidence of any weapons - as well as the IAEA. 

If Israel attacks Iran, the world is changed forever.

Comment by Mark on 7/22/09 at 1:35 pm

I know its been very hard for them, but war/fight is not the solution for everything. I think if they really from their heart make a agreement which they will never cross or overcome that, then it will be fine.

Comment by indie on 7/23/09 at 12:31 am

Mark:  You have this info from Achtung himself?  His mouth to your ear about no nukes. He has enough money to buy them without having to make them but he has to show the world that they are capable of making (And using one on Israel) for demonstration. Your last line is true.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/23/09 at 12:38 am

Mark needs a rudimentary lesson in nuclear physics. The hardest part about building a nuclear weapon is not weaponization but rather acquiring a sufficient quantity of fissile material. Iran’s relentless program to produce enriched uranium now puts it perilously close to having the wherewithal to build a nuclear weapon. That undeniable fact, together with the fact that Iran’s leaders have repeatedly called for the elimination of Israel, make the Iranian nuclear threat a genuine cause for alarm.

Comment by Brad on 7/26/09 at 4:05 pm

Brad: Mark needs to read more and say less.  How much material is needed to make a bomb?  How big a bomb or how many bombs? I’ve read where you can get the details to make the bomb off the internet so what’s holding them back? They have the scientists and could have bought the material they needed from N. Korea, Pakistan or another country willing to sell for the right price. If Israel has say 200 bombs, do the Iranians need 210 bombs?  I believe that the country that delivers (Explodes the first hostile nuke) will cause the destruction of his own country during the retaliation.  Whoever delivers the first strike must not only demolish the city, but the country.  That’s how deadly a game the Iranians are playing.  Right now, it’s all bluff with the centrifuges.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/27/09 at 12:42 am

yea iran need to be attacked they will have nukes soon and they will use them on iseral obama is wrong i live in the us and i know how obama is now who is he to tell iseral what to do .. iseral should not listen to the white house obama has no experince he should be takeing out of office iseral should attaic now wile they still can obama is a muslem himself the u.s has failed to elect a good leader .. im sad to be a us citizen i was born and raised in the states and proud of my country now obama is runing it i dont want to live here he is messing the usa up and bringing iseral and the world down with him ... go after iran !! obama dose not care about iseral or there people obama is a sry excuse for our pres.. im sry iseral

Comment by joe on 7/27/09 at 11:08 am

Hey Joe: For one born and raised in the US etc. You sir
in plain english are full of crap.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/27/09 at 7:50 pm

Iran currently has an unstable militaristic puppet government that is paranoid and out of touch with reality, both with it’s own people as well as geo-politically. It is ruled by religious fanatics who do not rely on logic to achieve goals, and one stated goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. I would not take these threats lightly. I believe Iran speaks the truth when it says these things. It is incredibly frightening to allow this rouge country to acquire nuclear weapons.
  Israel is at extreme risk, but so is the US with Iran at the center of the oil producing core of the world. The US and should develop a plan to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The price will be high, but not as high as Iran giving their nuclear weapons to terrorists who will bring them to the US.
  To me it’s clear that diplomacy should be given a certain amount of time to work with a concrete deadline, after which a massive military strike using carrier based and submarine based missiles and cruise missiles as well as stealth aircraft should devastate the most important sites involved in Iran’s nuclear program. The Muslim reaction will be strong and swift, and it will not matter how successful we are. just the attack will result in terrorist attacks on US soil. Given that matter, massive military intervention that completely, or as complete as the US military is capable of, should happen before Iran reaches the nuclear club.
  Iran is scary enough as it is, never mind with a nuclear arsenal. Furthermore, do not expect the populist revolt following the last elections to effectively overththrow the current regime anytime soon. Their grip on power is currently absolute.
  It is a situation that if diplomacy fails there are no good options. The choice is clear at least: Iran with nuclear weapons or Iran without nuclear weapons with the entire Arab world angry at us. I would choose the latter, as states such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other middle of the road states in the region will eventually start the oil flowing again. There will be fallout, that is a guarantee, with terrorist attacks on US soil, but at least they won’t be nuclear attacks.
  A secondary spin off of a successful military strike would be that North Korea might possibly begin taking the US and the world seriously when it comes to their nuclear program. They might just come to the negotiating table after watching what happens to a country that doesn’t. If Iran is allowed to obtain nuclear capabilities there is no question North Korea will continue to refine and realize it’s own nuclear program. Then we will have two rogue nuclear armed states in two of the most unstable regions on earth, both run by unstable fanatics. A very frightening proposition.

radwjw

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 7/29/09 at 9:32 pm

Walter: I agree with you however the military means you’d use, don’t go far enough. I believe one combined strike beyond the nuke plants is required.  Iran must be paralyzed to prevent a retaliatory strike with their long range missiles.This must be a one shot, complete destruction of the Iranian might and that means a lot of people getting killed.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/30/09 at 1:17 am

This is the most sickiest article I’ve ever read on Internet. We have seen Lies about Iraq, and Afghanistan and now the same lies are being regurgitated incessantly about Iran. However, Iran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan and someone here wants the Jewish state to be wipped off and I don’t know what to believe, if the author of this Creepy article is some Arab..??

Comment by Marco from Italy on 7/30/09 at 12:23 pm

Marco:This is a sane article regarding basically, the survival of Israel. The threats have been made by Iran over and over and Israel has to decide if they are bluffing (Nukes) or intent on its destruction. The powers to be in Israel have that nation’s welfare in their hands.  Living there under the threat must be challenging to every Israeli. Is it a bluff or a threat and the scales weigh in to no bluff. So smart man, what would you do if you had to make the decision to save yourself and family?  Do you wait and see (While Iran builds up it’s counter measures against a premptive strike)or do you act?  After the first strike, there’s no turning back.  The deed has been done.

Comment by sam corwin on 7/30/09 at 11:55 pm

No. It ‘ll solve no problems, but put us in a more insecure situation.

Comment by Hagah Costa on 8/01/09 at 9:45 am

Who knows but inaction I believe puts you in graver danger.  Bluffs are no good. Is there a good, clean solution? Talking doesn’t work.  What will?

Comment by sam corwin on 8/01/09 at 7:48 pm

It is often said that the urgency of the problem cannot be appreciated in countries outside of Israel because the rest of the world is not in their position, that is a small country surrounded by hostile states and now one of the most hostile attempting to acquire nuclear capabilities.
  The only way that I can imagine Israelis feeling of vulnerability is to think of the US (I am American and not Jewish) surrounded by Canada, which the US fought a war with and now has a treaty however precipitous, with Mexico and all of Latin America crying for US destruction, and lastly Mexico at the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons and proclaiming numerous times “we would like to wipe the US of the face of the earth”.
  In this scenario I think there would be little, if any, doubt that no matter the consequences or fallout the US would embark on a massive pre-emptive strike to halt the nuclear menace.

Walter J Wrobleski

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/03/09 at 12:57 pm

Walter: Your first para I agree with then you fall apart.
America is not imperiled as is Israel and I disagree with your last para. The US will pull no preemptive strikes.
America doesn’t have the threat that overhangs Israel’s
head and America can’t lose the imported oil. America’s stance is diplomacy which will fail and is failing now.
Israel is telling the US to back off and get the arab countries together to resolve the unresolvable Palestinian problem. The Palestinians cant even resolve
the W. Bank -Gaza problem which should be the starting point of any negotiations. So, what happens now?

Comment by sam corwin on 8/03/09 at 7:47 pm

Sam: I was attempting to portray the American psyche AS IF, that is, hypothetically, America was surrounded by threats like Israel is. I was making up a situation where America was surrounded by enemies like Israel in reality is. There is no truth to my 2nd and 3rd paragraphs in portraying Mexico, Canada, etc. as a threat to America. I was attempting to state that Americans would have a different point of view, i.e. the same as Israel’s in reality is, if hypothetically America was surrounded by enemies and if so then how would Americans feel and react.

Walter

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/06/09 at 12:16 am

Walter: The American psyche is no different than any others.Unless you live under the threat of unguided rockets, you can’t imagine to feel the fear of people who are/were subjected to it (Sderot). Now take the case of the people that live in Tel Aviv.  The threat there is as real as it was in Sderot because Iran can hit Tel Aviv with guided rockets. Life goes on there as normal (I imagine) with the big worriers in the upper military echelons and government officials. They have to be three steps ahead in outhinking the Iranians in whether to preemptive strike or live under the threat of a nuclear Iran.  Can Israel afford to wait?  If so, for how long? Or wait and see if they get the nuke and then wait somemore. This is a damned if you do attack or damned if you don’t attack.  The Israelis and not the Americans must make this call.  It’s a deadly call in either event.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/06/09 at 1:04 am

Reading all the comments and in many cases some of hem are moronic but Sam Corwin seems to have a logical follow through on possibilities. As A South African that has lived through some scary periods, one thing that is clear to me is that Iran poses a clear and dangerous situation not only for the middle east but can expand through means of planned terrorism any place in the Western world and the US and should Israel face utter nuclear destruction in a first strike by Iran. A retalitory strike by Israel would transform the middle east to a nuclear wasteland. I know this could be the nuclear holcaust often depicted as WWW3 scenario. Suitcase nuclear bombs could be placed anywhere in the world today as we are faced with fanatical Islamic forces. The west must now stategically plan and I include Russia, China. India   and the Nato alliance to formulate a plan
to neutralize Iran and its cohorts like Syria and and North Koreaa rogue state. We are running out of time and the politico’s will achieve nothing as per Neville Chaimberlin as in 1939 leadind to WW2. The time for action is now!We should bear in mind that there are 46 million Muslims already living in Europe many of which are enemies of the west and Israel.

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/07/09 at 4:41 am

Lets Be Clear… Israel does not give a Shi.t to Europe neither to the West..!! Having said this… Iran DID NOT threaten Israel… it is Israel that is threatened by its own deeds..!! Our mission is to save Israel from Collapse… but it seems like making sense that their own inhuman acts will result in their demise… with or without Iran.. and for this we can’t do anything..!!

Confronting Iran… means Third World War for the Sake of Israel… and Iran may fall in that confrontation but get it clear while Iranian “Ship” would be sinking it will bring down also the Jewish State with itself in the Bottom..!! I know what I’m talking about..!!

Building a case on false information and Biased Propaganda… has NEVER a good ending..!! This article is sickiest simply because it is mainly based on the LIE about Iranian Nuclear Bomb..!!

Comment by Marco from Italy on 8/07/09 at 10:15 am

Rube: right on however the world won’t commit itself to stopping Iran. Marco: You’re raving man. Read what Achmadin…says and don’t listen to me.  He threatens Israel for the whole world to see and you don’t see it.  Shame.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/08/09 at 12:24 am

This is just a hypothetical idea, but what if Iran has already developed and built an Atomic Bomb/Nuclear Weapon?  Could this be possible?  Could they have other secret underground installations which have been kept a secret for many years and ones which neither Mossad nor Western Intelligence know anything about?
This then leads me to speculate that could the recent Atomic tests in North Korea actually be an Iranian Atomic Test.  Just a theory, but imagine that they already have it and Israel’s military is about to launch an attack on those known about nuclear installations.  They could certainly hit back!  This is just a thought, an idea, but one which I feel could be possible.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/08/09 at 2:02 pm

James:  keep thinking because what you say is entirely possible.  The Iranians have the money to buy the weaponry and they aren’t announcing their purchases. I’m sure the “smart” people in Israel are thinking as you do and the midnight lights have been burning for a long time. Time and tide wait for no man and time is crucial now.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/08/09 at 7:55 pm

Sam: I’ve voiced this idea to friends and colleagues, when this subject comes up and it always gets people thinking.  They could be co-producing nuclear weapons between them, all entirely possible.  The nuclear facility in Syria, which was bombed recently by the IAF was funded by the North Koreans and am damn sure that Tehran must be implicated in this web somewhere.  Tehran is providing the hard cash and the expertise of North Korea and Iran are being combined, but on the world stage it looks like a North Korean project only, which diverts attention away from Iran.  But imagine if it were an Iranian Bomb? Allegedly in 1979 a double flash over the Indian Ocean detected by a U.S Satellite was suspected of being a South African nuclear test, in collaboration with Israel. (known as the Vela Incident).  No official confirmation was ever made, but clearly our allies were working covertly and in collaboration, so no reason to suspect that Iran and North Korea are not collaborating in the same way.  If this is the case, then they already have a working bomb.  They’re obviously working on reducing the size and weight of the device and then fitting it to a reliable missile.  Or ways of delivery via alternative means, such as sailing a suicide boat up the Thames or up the Hudson River, or driving it into the centre of Tel Aviv in a truck.  Food for thought.  What’s worrying is that if/when Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, that would mean war and would the Iranian’s resort to using the said nuke as a last resort before the regime (like Saddam’s) is about to topple.  This in turn would bring about the total destruction of major Iranian cities and installations by means of Israels nuclear arsenal, would the stage then be set for other powers like China and Russia to join in the fight, the world could be reduced to anarchy and Nuclear war.  Maybe Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah’s Messianic Cult would then see the fruits of their labour, the unleashing of a terrible war or armageddon - thus bringing about the Madhi.
Just some thoughts on this issue.
I hope for peace and stability, but you cannot blind yourself to the developing facts and what could be install. 
Again, just hypothesising.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/09/09 at 7:08 am

James: Your thoughts and hypothesis are sound and well thought out. My thoughts are: The threat to Israel is real. The Iranians can’t be bluffed. They must be made to realize that an Israeli strike is imminent.  In whatever form, it has to be of such ferocity that Iran will not retaliate.  It must place fear into the hearts of the Iranian people for the implied threat of retaliation will bring about the destruction of all the major cities in Iran.  That is a holocaust of unknown consequences.  Russia and China.  Forget about them. The world will be in shock and noone will attack Israel.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/09/09 at 7:42 pm

Sam: I do not believe that the Iranian people would knowingly want to destroy Israel; I think that the vast majority 95% are in favour of peace and probably do not like the fact that their government is supporting terrorist organisations which attack Israel.  I may be wrong here.  But I feel that it is a hardened elite, a minority who hold power who are pushing the agenda.  But if attacked by Israel, then this shall only serve to galvanise support for their leadership, it’s a tough one to answer.  I agree though that time is running out, a nuclear armed Iran is an unthinkable proposition, especially as far as Israel is concerned.  It would completely alter the geopolitical shape up of the entire middle east region and who knows where that would lead.  I doubt it would create the status quo as between U.S.A and U.S.S.R during the cold war era.  We have religious ideology thrown into the brew and fanaticism, certainly a different chemistry and one which is more volatile.  The Soviets were like the West, in that they wanted a good experience of life and that life was precious - we didn’t have suicide Soviets did we and we didn’t want mutually assured destruction either.  The Islamic Fanaticism of present is a horned devil and when it comes into conjunction with a extreme right Israeli government - you’ve got fireworks.  John Bolton is more than likely right in his assumption that Israel shall attack Iran before end of 2009.  Where we go from there, who knows, a cloud of nuclear material unleashed like Chernobyl into the atmosphere, retaliation on Western and Israeli assets world wide - I don’t know.
We’re certainly damned if we do and damned if we don’t.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/10/09 at 6:59 am

James: I agree with your thinking and I’ll throw you another scenario. Iran knowing of an impending raid decides to fire its purchased nuke from Lebanon or Gaza.
Then what? The fingers are pointed and Iran says “Who? Me? We didn’t attack. I believe John Bolton.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/10/09 at 7:46 pm

In reply to Marco about Iran’s threat to wipe Israel off the map is well documented. Marco denial of the above is pure ignorance. You should think rather in global terms of the threat of Iran becoming a major problem world wide.
WMD will not respect civilian populations and if we recall the cold war period where the doomsday clock was at 5 minutes to 12 0’clock. We could be facing the same situation now! There are thousands of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles ready in the silos and vehicle mounted systems on a stand by basis.Added to this are the nuclear armed submarines.
So, will Israel make a first strike assuming that the intelligence on Iranian atomic sites are known? Or will the western world dilly dally and until something happens to stop Iran in its tracks and avert the threat of doomsday . One nervous finger on the RED button could maybe already press down sooner or later.
Rube

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/11/09 at 3:26 am

Sam: Yes that’s an interesting scenario and one which is tactically sound, creates ambiguity on the battlefield. I suppose the point is, the point is not allowing this situation to arise in the first place. We could argue that Iran’s nuclear program is for domestic electricity generation, but as the CIA argued, why would a country which is sitting on top of some of the worlds largest gas/oil fields want to invest in nuclear?  It’s an expensive process and why would you bother when you’re gas/oil is not going to run out any time soon.  Also, if it were merely a civilian program, why the military ringing of the sites with AA Guns and Surface to Air Missiles.  You could argue that this is a response to Israeli threats, but really - if it were really peaceful you’d have nothing to hide and no need to do this in the first place.
Yes, the Nuke from Lebanon of Gaza is a frightening possibility, as is one driven into the centre of Rome, Tel Avia, New York, London etc…..  This would render the Anti-Ballistic Missile Program dead in the water.  Time for action is now, I’m sure the Israeli and Western Intelligence knows the answers to the above and know that they need to act.  I think the faulty intelligence with Iraq has given the West a bad name around the world, we can’t go blundering in a second time it would be very detrimental to our credibility and the Iranian’s know this.  I think that this is why the West (USA/Europe) are deciding to wait it out, Iran makes a move - we can then point the finger at the bad guy.  Israel makes the move first, Israel did it, we get drawn into the fight, but we didn’t start the war.  Tricky situation.  But I believe John Bolton and I do think that one cool Autumn morning we’ll all wake up to the news that the Israeli Air Force is running bombing sorties on Iranian targets.
So Rube, I think we’ll dilly dally, the Israelis shall be the ones who make the first move.  Then the game is in play.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/11/09 at 7:16 am

Question: What happens after the Israel Air Force release their bombs onto/into the Iranian Nuclear Installations?  Imagine the very next day, the morning after the initial raids.  Does Iran declare war in Israel, does nothing happen, what’s the most likely scenario to follow this?  Military planners must have worked on this over the past decade.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/11/09 at 8:34 am

James: What happens after is a valid question.  In my humble opinion, what happens before will bring about the what happens next scenario. Why didn’t Iraq or Syria retaliate?  Bombing them was an act of war.  The situation is different with Iran.  They are equipt to respond and respond they will.  Everyone supposes that Israel will bomb the sites.  I say “Not with planes” and of such ferocity that to prevent it’s entire destruction, Iran will also stand down and not retaliate.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/11/09 at 7:45 pm

Comments by James and Sam are based on logic and are reasonable scenarios. The real fly in the ointment is Islamic fanatics that base their logic on the hatred of the of the infidel and their twisted interpertation of the Quran (Koran)
History is repeating itself if one considers Spain when Queen Isabella threw out the Muslims that were becoming too invasive, this is happening right now in the Western world. The danger will be from within.
Assuming that the coming attack against Iran becomes more than a possibility, with large Muslim populations in Europe and USA allowed in by liberal politicians Iran’s allies already in place could- if co-ordinated place small nuclear bombs in every major city in the Westwern world and held to ransom> I know this sort of sounds like a fanciful novel, but this is a possibilty of world domnination which is the dream of the Islamic world which already numbers more than one billion in numbers.
Comments by others in this forum seem to think that Israel will be the country that makes the first strike.
The retaliation is frightening to consider unless the attack is so well organised with reliable intelligence that Israel is supported by the Western c ountries to once and for all destroy the Islamic dream of conquest endangering us all.

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/12/09 at 2:21 am

Rube and Sam:  Yes, Iran is an entirely different beast.  It’s the main player for sure in the region, or set to be if we don’t either stop it, or contain it.  Our politicians with their liberal ideas, though seated in the realm of fairness and equality have unfortunately overlooked the fact that a democratic and free system’s very ideal is also the very point which underpins its collapse.  What we’re dealing with is a situation that is working out over a long time frame 50-100 years or maybe shorter in duration.  While our political elite in our system run in 5 years terms of office, we seem to be short sighted in our planning and not seeing the big picture, which is being played out over the course of the century. I think that Western material thinking is certainly on a different level to the mind of a religious fanatic, they’re not bound by things like so many unfortunates in our part of the world are.  In many ways this makes them more of a force to reckon with.  You can’t buy them, you can’t reason with them, they care not for their own lives.  How do you reason with a culture/movement which wants to bring about the downfall of the West.
You make war with the West on the material front, the way the West knows how to fight a war - you will loose.  But fight it slowly, carefully, like Sun Tzu (author of Art of War), take on our system with a borderless beast with no country to his name but Allah.  It’s a terrible situation and one which is going to require our militaries to adopt a more Geurilla stance.

I am just freethinking here, writing down what comes to mind.

I am not a racist, I enjoy the fact that the worlds communities can live side by side and with each other, it brings colour, life, culture to our streets and enriches out lives, the cross pollination of cultural/intellectual ideas.  It’s vital for us to embrace this.  But I feel that if one element is trying to dominate and destroy, like is so clearly happening the world over and we can’t be in denial about this, then devisions are drawn, tribal divisions.  We must not allow our good nature and democratic system of inclusion of all races to be undermined by religious fanatics.
There has to be a stronger political force, lines drawn in the sand.  If like Rube states that small Nuclear Devices are to be hidden in every Western/Israeli Capital City and we’re going to be held to randsom, then we’re clearly doomed.  You can’t fight that - maybe you can - but how.  If this scenario was ever to unfold and it quite rightly could, it would be unthinkable what would happen. 
When you’re dealing with men who can train to fly air liners packed full of passengers into the World Trade Centre, the Pentagon etc, when you’re dealing with people who are prepared to do that, which until Sept 11th 2001 would have seemed unthinkable, then I believe they are capable of anything.
The catalogue is endless.  The Islamic Fanatics who took hostage a whole school in South Ossetia in 2004.  They killed children in a school.  What unthinkable ideology are we up against.  The list is endless.

Quite clearly we’re all on a collision course with fire.

Our governments need to take a firmer stance than they already are.
I believe Israel has finalised it’s plans for a mission on Iran. 
We’re just going to discuss it - but someday soon, those planes shall be heading East into the next chapter of history.  Who knows what events shall unfold there after, but I know one thing.  Like you say, Iran isn’t Iraq nor Syria.  It has teeth and it will use them.  We best be ready that’s all I can say.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/12/09 at 7:03 am

Alteration.  ref to South Ossetia.  Correction: School was in Beslan, North Ossetia.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/12/09 at 7:10 am

I can only add that at this point, the World countries will sit on their asses, do nothing but talk and applaude (Secretly) if Israel attacks etc. I will comment on “Thinking”. The main problem with the Western countries (People) is that they think that they are on the same dialogue frequency as the Muslims but that’s a fallacy. In dealing with people of other cultures you have to realize that while they shake their head in assent, they may not know what you’re talking about or have already outmaneuvered you. I live in Thailand and the old adage “East is East and West is West and never the two shall meet” still rings true.We Americans tend to favor the underdog and that concept is wrong with people that will kill you after you’ve fed them.  I think John Bolton knows this and he’s a man to listen to.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/12/09 at 7:53 pm

I find that both Sam and James have similar views to my comments and I also believe the John Bolton needs to be heard by the US administration. I would like to mention that CNN’s chief foreign correspondent Christine Amapour being Iranian born seems to be an apologist on behalf of the so-called Palestinians. CNN DOES NOT ALWAYS REPORT THE REAL STORY.
US President Obama has a talent as an orator but does not have a record of an administrator and seems to be a weak sister concerning Iran. His soft approach to that fanatical Islamic president is absolute folly. I am not sure if the US industrial military complex is influenced by special intrest lobbyists who do not want to be involved in a nuclear incident. My take is that Israel will be forced into a situation not of it’s making-the tactical and strategic planning of the Israeli military obviously will not make a public statement of its intentions, leaving us to wonder what is going to happen if a first strike is made! I am positively sure they are working on alternative solutions fully dependent on realistic intelligence reports. My understanding is that the Israeli have some sort of knowledge of the Iran nuclear weapons program which will be realised within 8 months!!
So, what will they do. My thoughts is that a alternative is a clandestine operation could be in a planning stage whhere the Israeli intelligence organisations will try to take out all the main players by subversion and perhaps do some planting of their own nuclear devices all over Iran. Wishful thinkling perhaps but the Israeli’s have in the past come up with suprising and successful results. Their knowledge of the Arab Islamic thought process is well known to them after 60 years of continuous conflict.
If we consider that there are seven known countries with nuclear weapons and should Iran be the next——contemplating if one starts the use of a nuclear weapon, what happens when retaliation takes place???
Someone with an itchy trigger finger can start something that will be not be able to be stopped, the domino effect comes into play. I hope not What do you think James and Sam?

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/13/09 at 3:22 am

Sam and Rube: Interesting points, cultural differences so vast yet subtle means that we’re miscalculating the situation.  I find it a little like the situation in Africa when the European powers were carving up the continent with a pencil and ruler, they had absolutely no idea about the invisible cultural maps written in the minds, hearts and DNA of the peoples who’d lived and roamed there for millennia.  Their borders cut in half whole systems of life and communities.  It is hour thinking, Western way of thinking meeting the Eastern way of thinking which is a cultural clash of ideals.  The Chinese say, ‘Western man thinks with his head, so he is wobbly, but Eastern man thinks with his gut, his stomach, so he is stable and grounded.”  I read that somewhere and it’s quite possibly true, intellect alone can be dangerous.  I think a combination of the two, to think and to feel.
It’s a tough call, to try and understand a different people, especially like you say that they smile at you and shake your hand, then the next minute they’re going to cut off your head! 

Dialogue frequency.  Language alone isn’t the key to understanding and communication, it has to be felt also, there are many subtle undertones in communicating with people, a lot of it on a sub-conscious level, which is learnt and socialised via your social group. 

Bring this back to Iran and the fanatic Islamic president who believes in the appearance of the 12th and final Imam….Muhammad al-Mahdi (The Guided One) that the Imam will reappear when the world has fallen into chaos and civil war emerges between the human race for no reason.  At this time, it is believed, half of the true believers will ride from Yemen carrying white flags to Mecca, while the other half will ride from Karbala in Iraq, carrying black flags to Mecca.  At this time, Imam al-Mahdi will come wielding God’s Sword, the double-bladed sword. He Ahmadinajad believes that this figure the ‘hidden’ 12th Imam is going to reappear on Earth at the end of time (which he thinks is now) and lead an era of Islamic justice. Ahmadinejad stated in a speech, “Our revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi” and “Therefore, Iran should become a powerful, developed and model Islamic society.” then “Today, we should define our economic, cultural and political policies based on the policy of Imam Mahdi’s return. We should avoid copying the West’s policies and systems,”

So, we’re dealing with people who believe in mysticism, an irrational belief in what is not real.
Suppose to bring him about, you need to create hell on Earth first, then this’ll hasten his return.
This rhetoric coming from a statesman of the highest office of a sovereign country in the 21st Century.
He is educated to Phd level, so he understand reasoning a logic and is by no means an idiot or a fool.
Delusional yes.

If the Israelis do decide to act and I am sure that they will, then I only hope the other nations of this world, will see logic and fair reason as to why they needed to act.  I do not think that the Obama administrations softened stance with Iran will make any difference what so ever to the course of events, though I do admire the fact that he (US Government) has held out the olive branch to the Iranian regime in Tehran.  They are being the bigger person in doing this from a Western perspective, but from History, Arab and Muslim countries will possibly and more than likely interpret this as weak.

Iran could be the trigger for a wide war in Asia.  Israel, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and even Pakistan could be sucked into the flames.  Not to mention India and other Central Asian Countries.  In some sense I think the Iranian Regime wants this to happen, from the religious standpoint, I think this is part of bringing about the Mahdi.  But what they’ll do is bring about the total destruction of the nation of Iran and the greater Middle East and even a partial collapse of the world economy and even the onset of WWIII. 

I hope I am wrong here, again just thinking it through and based on discussion with other friends and colleagues.

Looking forward to your response, Sam and Rube.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/13/09 at 7:19 am

My thoughts, your comment on Achma and his thoughts.  Leaving things as they are poses a world wide problem with the nukes. Should the madman prevail, there will be no Middle East.  Just a place that you can’t live in because of radio activity.  America should not be at the bargaining table trying to mediate because you cant
work oranges and apples into the same equation.  You can’t force democracy down the throats of people that dont want it.  Democracy will kill off Israel due to birthrate where in time, there will be more arab votes than jewish votes ergo what the arabs couldn’t win by force, they won by democratic voting.
What to do with Iran?  Iran must be effectively neutralized in one fell swoop and it shouldn’t be accomplished by nuking a city.  Pick an area with a minimum of population, nuke it and play the whole scene
incessantly over radio and tv with the admonition the the next strike will take out all major Iranian cities.  Other than causing mass panic simply taking out one or two of their nuke making plants wont work.  Iran must retaliate or lose face.They have the missiles and will use them. Again, there should only be one strike and that a telling one.  Any other approach in my mind is catastrophic.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/13/09 at 9:56 am

Greetings Sam and James
You both have proposed interesting ideas and hopefully it could work. There so may imponderables about a situation which has a very difficult solution.
I would say that another workable possibility which would require the positive help from several nations which would have to overcome their prejudices and national interests.
if Britain,USA.France,India and even the Russians together with Israel in no unequivocal terms tell the lunacy of the Iranian leadership to back off with their threats and allow inspection of all their nuclear sites the allied group would stand fast that any threat from Iran will be immediately have a devastating attack fom the group. WWW111 next! I realise this is off course a hope that would never happen. The only way to kill a snake is to cut off its head, the body dies.
The chickens have come home to roost, the west including the Russians set op the oil rich arab states that the best they had to offer was a lot of sand and goats. Now these oil rich states are basically calling the shots, not only with their oil, but their world wide investments in many strategic industries, they have fingers in many pies in financial and industrials areas including menerals also of strategic dominance.
Defeating an unholy mysticism without the clear logic so very necessary in dealing with the fanaticism prevalent today with the ever increasing Muslim populations. When humanity first had developed weapons to destroy their adversaries in conflict, bigger and better weapons were developed ultimately reaching the point of the Colt .45 equalizer syndrome now existing. I am not a religious in fact verging on atheism because creationists live in a world denying evolution of the species, the fact that home sapiens even including the fanatics that we evolved and did not suddenly appear on the surface of our planet which is estimated to be about 4,5 billion years and the Universe out there a unimaginable period of time. I feel that pragmatism must prevail.
Yes a preemptive assault being proposed has many paths and that has to be followed. How will the UN react and what useless measures could they propose to defuse the situation other than a nuclear war. My friends we are already in a foxhole if Iran makes their final move of defiance. What say you guys.

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/14/09 at 5:02 am

Sam and Rube,

The Israelis are certainly with their backs to the wall and the red line is advancing towards them, once over this red line, there is no way back without the prospect of a nuclear war with Iran and a wider Middle East war.  I agree, the West, including Russia and China need to make a united stance on this in order for it to work.  If not, then all these countries need to militarily collaborate to bring about a swift end to the Iranian nuclear program and removal of this dangerous regime in Tehran.  But, this won’t happen.  Like you say Rube, fingers are in many pies and lots of reciprocal back rubs are in place here.  The Chinese, since when did they take any moral ground?  They (PRC) do business with any regime, doesn’t matter if like Robert Mugabe, they’re starving their population to death, if there’s something in if for China, they just get what they want and hand over the money.  As for the Russians, I know after the collapse of the Soviet Union they needed funds and finance, but to build the Iranians a Nuclear power plant is surely an act of sheer folly.  Short term financial gains for a long term road to disaster, they’ve done a deal with the devil here.
When will humans ever learn?!

They have to be stopped, that’s it.  I am without doubt that if the West continues to worry about Swine Flu and the Financial Crisis, we’ll overlook one of the most important points in history.  We’re dealing with a leadership who have taken their country back to the Medieval period yet at the same time want to harbour Thermo-Nuclear Arms and the means to deliver them.  That in my eyes is a very very grim prospect.  Imagine Saladin’s men with Nuclear Missiles.  That’s what we’re going to end up with. 
We’re going to end up with a Muslim Tyrant so cruel, he’ll probably be joining the ranks of Napolean Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler and he’ll stop at nothing to impose his will.  The fact is, we in the West value life, when you’re dealing with a fanatical religious group who think that it’s okay and acceptable to extinguish your own life and take the lives of thousands of others (i.e.World Trade Centre 2001) you’re dealing with a formidable adversary.  You cannot reason with this mindset.  Like the Pacific War with Japan, the Kamikaze raids struck terror into the U.S Navy.  Yes, the Japs certainly wasted a lot of talented airmen and lost a lot of planes, but the psychological impact must have been enormous for the U.S.Navy.  Fortunately it was the development of the Atomic Bomb which shocked the Japanese into surrender.

What we have before us, is a similar mindset but with Nuclear Weapons.

Quite simply put, we have to act now, hesitation means we’ll later be in a conflict where we’ll have to use our own Nuclear weapons and what destabilising impact this shall have on the strategic road map of the world is anybody’s guessing.
It could result in triggering another war between other powers.

Sam, you were saying about placing a Nuclear device in an Iranian city and in effect holding them to randsom.
On the flip side of this, what’s stopping Al-Qaeda using this ploy now with the West. 
If they issued a statement stating that there were ten 20kt Nuclear weapons placed in safe houses in 20 major Western cities,
what would the reaction be.  Knowing in my hypothesis that this is a bluff, what would the West do.  What demands could Al-Qaeda impose on us and would it become public knowledge or would a deal be brokered between our governments and the terror organisation, effectively selling us out without ever knowing it had happened.

The British Government is wanting to release Abdelbasset al-Megrahi who was found guilty in 2001 of killing 270 people in the bomb attach on Pan Am Flight 103 over Scotland in 1988.  They say it’s on compassionate grounds. 

I’ve never in all of my life heard so much b-ll sh-t!  You cannot have laws in place and be compassionate with people like this.
Are our leaders turning crazy?  Has politics become impotent, laxed, confused?

The interpretation of this to the Iranian regime is that we’ve grown rich, fat and soft.  Like a fat pig ready for the slaughter.

A harder line please!  You cannot do business with these people, you cannot appease them.

Your thoughts guys?

Comment by James Johnson on 8/14/09 at 5:38 am

James: I didn’t say place a nuke in a city and hold them ransom.  Such a ploy wouldn’t work.  While it would cause panic, suppose the government says that this is an Israeli trick or bluff and says “Go ahead”
Then to explode it is wanton murder or the bluff is called and you lose any sort of advantage that you have. I did say that a bomb should be detonated in a remote area in Iran and the event broadcast over and over again in all media telling the people that unless the nuke plants are open to inspection the deadline is in two weeks for other nukes to fall. You need to create a panic in which there cannot be a retaliation strike by Iran.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/14/09 at 6:37 am

See my 8/12, 8/13 comments.  The UN is a front from which countries can hide behind.  It’s a paper tiger. Look at Africa.  Look at Burma. To the world, the Middle East situation (Palestine) is like a boil on your ass hoping it will blow out and then heal itself.The UN won’t do anything but cry if Iran got Nuked or if Israel were overrun. So, it all boils down to Israel who’se threatened to take whatever action is required to ensure its safety. The Israeli’s motto should be “Piss off”.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/14/09 at 6:49 am

Sam: I misinterpreted your copy there! It’s a pig of a situation indeed….a stinking heaving mess.  It’s now just a matter of time.  I just wonder what elements of our above discussions shall prove true in the coming months and years ahead?
I’ll have a look at your 8/12, 8/13 comments now.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/14/09 at 7:06 am

James: I liken the Israeli-Iran problem in this fashion: Iran is like a threatening octopus.  If you cut off a tentacle you have the remaining 7 to get you.  The only way to keep safe is to kill the entire unit.  Because this is an animal, it’s your only salvation however people can be induced .Cut off a tentacle and have the gun pointed at the heart and anyone sane, will see the folly of further action.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/14/09 at 7:39 pm

Any Israeli strike will be aimed at minimizing human casualties.  If this is the case, any retaliation will be limited, if it occurs at all. 

That has been the pattern of Israeli action before.  Iraq and the Syrians both had the potential to retaliate massively against Israel.  They chose not to do so.  They knew that a massive strike would bring an equally massive response from Israel.  Syria and Iraq judged this option to be unacceptable given the limited but effective nature of the Israeli actions.  Whatever the scenario, the Israelis will attack in such a way that their opponents will have a choice of escalating the conflict or accepting the results.

Comment by Shalom on 8/14/09 at 9:26 pm

Shalom:  Situation is different.  Iran has threatened the destruction of Israel and a retaliatory strike would attempt to establish this and create fear into the Arab countries of now being the dominant power in the Middle East. Any action by Israel must be telling in effect with no retaliation. I don’t believe that Israel will let Iran have a choice of escalation or standing down.

Comment by sam corw2in on 8/15/09 at 1:13 am

The key is to knock out the nuclear installations and key government infrastructure immediately.  Iran will then be out of the picture with developing a nuclear weapon for many years to come and it may spurn the Iranian people on to topple the regime themselves.  To just sit back and wait for a nuclear armed Iran would be pure stupidity, especially in the current climate in the region. 

Israel will make the first move very soon, before Christmas I think, whether or not they get approval from Washington D.C.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/15/09 at 6:22 am

James: Not good enough.  Too many targets and the retaliation factor is still there. I figure something will happen after Obama makes his offer to talk in September. I believe everything is set just pending the response Iran gives Obama.  And the Israelis know of Iran’s stalling tactics. I think that’s the only thing holding the Israelis back at this time.Time is of the essence and December is too far away.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/15/09 at 7:38 am

Sam: Do you think the Iranians are going to take up Obama’s offer to talk in September.  So far I have not heard anything in main stream media suggesting that the Iranians have taken him (US) up on the offer.  Is this just the case of the West attempting to take the moral high ground, if they rebuke, then we can then move swiftly onto the next phase.  Which shall either be tougher sanctions (which won’t work) or Israel going it alone and bombing the said targets.  That’s pretty much what we’re up against.  Whatever the Iranians choose to do thereafter is their choice, but I think they’ll fight, I really do think they’ll come out guns blazing.  They won’t react like Saddam Hussein’s army did in 1990/91.  It will be a mammoth mess and one that the US and Britain will no doubt be dragged into to sort out.
The risks of escalation are high with this.
I think the Autumn and going into Winter this year is going to show some major shifts with this issue.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/15/09 at 9:09 am

Sam: Way I see it, Israel will hit Iran this year.  Iran will retaliate, the fighting shall escalate, bringing in other Middle Eastern countries into the fray.  Particularly by proxy forces like Hamas and Hezbollah.  I doubt it will be a few big strikes and Iran backs down, I doubt that very much.  This regime is banking on this, I think they want the Israelis to attack them, it will then justify their return actions on Israel - this trick up their sleeve is the backing of Russia and China which could mean the conflict escalates into an East/West confrontation.  It’s been simmering for years, but this time it shall be about oil/gas too and Russia and China I doubt will sit idly back if Israel ups the game and we’re then looking at another Western invasion of an oil rich region.  This is a grand chess game being played out here I think.  Western Military forces have already imposed themselves on the region due to terrorist attacks, but there is a duality to it too, we also can implement the right people into government of those countries to give us certain favours and rights over access to fossil fuels.  Could this part of the agenda actually be Western fear, I’m looking into the long term here, strategy over the course of the next 100-200 years.  Could what we’re seeing be the imposition of Imperial Western Domination of the region, under the guise (conveniently) of removing terrorist organisations, in order to secure the fuel supplies which come from it?  The main fear being the rise of China as a consuming power with a 1.3 billion population all wanting cars and domestic gas.  With that need, could China literally buy into the Middle East as we have done/or invade as we have done.  In theory have we beaten them to it afterall a group of terrorists gave us the excuse and made it legitimate.  Russia/China support Iran and it’s in their interest to help them develop nuclear capability to prevent our dominance on the region.  So there could be a sub-plot to the religious extremism which is aimed at primarily Israel. 
Just hypothesis again.
Another great game for power and control over mineral deposits in Central Asia.
There is much at stake I think.  One false more, one wrong step and this smoldering fire will burst into a raging inferno, especially with the world financial crisis putting economies under pressure.  The world is a very different place to what it was in the 1990’s and early 2000’s.  Let’s hope we all make the right moves.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/15/09 at 10:53 am

James: Iran talking in September? Vague because the US is setting the timetable. This is not to their (Irans)advantage. For the rest, your arguments are reasonable but I think the wrong scenario. Conventional wisdom needs to be put on a shelf and new tactics put into place.It is also possible that Iran might make the first strike. We live in a modern age and tactics change accordintg to the situation.  The lessons learned by Israel (Where they got their asses kicked in Lebanon) showed up in Gaza. Little casualties to the army and lots of ground damage. I don’t beleive Israel will use conventional tactics in the Iranian assault.  Like a good boxer, you never telegraph your punches.  Iranian capitulation after a one strike move. That’s the way I see it.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/15/09 at 7:47 pm

Further:  I believe Israel should broadcast videos (Download in Iran) the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a propaganda move to show the Iranians what they might face.  If that doesn’t panic them, nothing will.  Just say that these were compiled
on the anniverary of the bombings. Continue on, show the medical results of radiation from Chernobyl. Pretty gruesome?  They need to see the other side of the coin regarding their threats to get rid of Israel.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/16/09 at 12:39 am

Sam: The Iranian people are possibly fully aware of what could happen if they’re attacked with nuclear weapons in any nuclear standoff with Israel.  Question is, are they going to do anything about their government and islamic madmen who’re running the country.  Can they do anything about it if what you suggest were to stir them into action?  How ruthless is the Iranian government, would it resort to systematically killing it’s own people if there were to be a major uprising?  Will they stop at nothing?  Just questions.  Sounds like they (Iranian people) could be damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  I doubt the islamic leadership nor government would be moved by images of Hiroshima.  I doubt that would work in my opinion, but in any case could be worth a shot.  Psychological Warfare/Black Ops. is certainly the way to go - the Israelis/West need to really think this one out of the box.  Last resort - full military intervention brought to bare.
I wonder.
Deadlines are approaching.  I doubt any talks shall take place and if they due, they’ll no doubt be fruitless.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/16/09 at 9:40 am

James: Iranian people can’t be lumped together.  Some people are aware, most not. If they had the power they would have stiffled Achma but didn’t so in this instance if you are not against then you are for your government.  It might be that the people are overpowered by the Clergy and Revolutionary Guard. What we have here is a situation unparalled by anything that’s ever happened before.  Unless there is a major devlopement to make the people rise up against the government it will never happen. Physchological warfare if applied correctly (Mass population hysteria) would be the only means of stopping the impending disaster.Comes mass hysteria, would not Iran strike Israel first to unite the people?
Military intervention (Ground troops) is out.  Impossible situation.
Keep thinking.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/16/09 at 7:37 pm

Sam: A friend of a friend of mine is Iranian and lives here in the U.K. what was interesting was that the general consensus in Iran from his (Iranian) point of view was that most Iranians in Iran actually detest Hezbollah, Hamas and above all the Palestinians.  He didn’t elaborate much on that, but I thought it an interesting insight from an Iranian on the ground point of view.  Food for thought there.  Things are never as they really seem, especially with modern media bias and public brainwashing.  But like in Hitler’s pre-war Germany, it was only a minority who were driving the agenda there, but when war broke out, the nation rallied.
There has to be an alternative to conflict in this.  I think that’s why the U.S. Administration has been careful in it’s approach to Iran.  Well, I think that war is not the right answer.  I know the Israelis want to strike soon and I believe it will.  I just hope that for the first time in history the human race can find a subtle, blindingly clever and suitable alternative to actual all out war.  I read a book on the Vietnam was several years ago and the war cost in monetary terms $580 Billion dollars.  Massive loss of life, mainly for the Vietnamese and numbered in millions dead.  It was noted that if the U.S had dropped a tenth of the amount in U.S Dollar Bills, or $58 Billion on N.Vietnam, the war would have been over before it had begun.  Not saying you should buy out your enemies here, but just a useful insight into how a solution could be met.  Suppose it’s a case of separating human ego from the fight and finding an alternative means.  Just thinking aloud here.  But an interesting idea non the less.  If was comes and it might, it is going to be a big mess in Central Asia - I have no doubt about that.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/17/09 at 6:42 am

James: Germany and Iran two different scenarios. True, the Hitlerites were in a small minority but grew more powerful as Hitler pulled them out of their depression.  The man was regarded as “Next to God”. That’s how much adoration there was for him. My friend, money isn’t the answer and your Iranian friend is in the minority. Achma is in the same position as Hitler (Almost) for he seeks Iranian expansion.  First Israel,and then Lebanon where he can march in anytime for he has Hezbolla in place.  Same in Gaza. Neville Chamberlain’s “Peace in our time” saw Britain and France cede Austria and Czechoslavakia before he moved
on to Poland and WW11 started.  Iran is gaining strength daily and the end game (I Believe) is to restore the Persian Empire and swallow up all surrounding countries. The major problem is how to stop them without the use of some type of force and Israel is the only nation with the clout (Determination)to do so for its very survival.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/17/09 at 7:50 am

Sam: I have read somewhere once that there is a plan to create a unified Islamic State in the Middle East, bit like the Soviet Union and at it’s heart and centre running the show would be Iran.  So maybe there could a reinstated Persian Empire which would run the region as the main power base.  Do you think that Al Qaeda is possibly state sponsored.  I know in recent years the media has made assumptions that the finance points back to Saudi Arabia, but I often wonder how much the Iranians are behind it.  If you remember the shooting down of an Iranian airliner in 1988 by the USS Vincennes, killing 290 passenger.  What followed shortly after was the bringing down of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie.  Tit-for-Tat!?
Of course fingers pointed towards Libya, Regan authorised bombing of Tripoli as reprisal.  I often have wondered if the Iranians were behind 9/11.
It’s the perfect way to hit a sovereign nation as a sovereign nation, using a proxy force like Al Qaeda.  Conveniently the training grounds were in neighbouring Afghanistan, next to Iran.  There hasn’t been much information regarding this in the press and have questioned this before numerous times.  What do you think?
New Persian Empire, or a Pan Islamic Federation ruled from Tehran.
Food for thought.

Comment by james Johnson on 8/17/09 at 12:20 pm

James: Hadn’t heard or read of a unified arab state (UAR) is a failure. There’s too much rancour and pettiness in the various countries so another scheme is in progress. Islamism (But you have the Shi ites and Sunnis ) fighting each other but Islamism is growing stronger and which is the most powerful Islamist country in the Middle East?  I believe the Saudis paid Al Queada for protection and are regretting it. Iran is funding Hezbolla and Hamas.  These are the expanding areas of Iranian influence.  Lets see what the next month will bring.(Rockets smuggled in and not fired means a buildup of an arms cache) Think Hamas quit smuggling arms into Gaza or Hezbolla in Lebanon?

Comment by sam corwin on 8/17/09 at 7:50 pm

Sam: It was something I read in an article several years ago….can’t remember the exact details but it mentioned something about either Al Qaeda wanting a Muslim Caliphate in the region and then something about possibly Iran being the centre of an empire (UAR or PIFAS, Pan Islamic Fed.)  Not into mythology myself, on a serious note, but I always remember when at school back in the early 1980 I watched a documentary about Nostradamus and his prediction for the third world war, or third anti-christ made reference to Perse or Persia being the start of a massive war.  I always remember that, it also mentioned something about them obtaining weapons of frightening power from their ally in the north.  Russia?  N.Korea?  Not sure I believe in all that, but almost seems accurate now with what we’re discussing and witnessing on the world stage.  As a famous Chinese prophet once wrote over 2000 years ago, in reference to the era in which you and I now live, her referred to it as the ‘interesting times’.  Yes, I agree, let’s see what unfold over the next couple of months and to the years end….  Everything at present is eery and quiet regarding Iran and the Nuclear issue and Israel is being extremely so….

Comment by James Johnson on 8/18/09 at 3:04 pm

There’s a lot about the end of the world in early writings i.e. The Bear (Russia) being involved in the Persiajn deal.  I can’t add anything new so will wait and see what happens in September or October. Nice reading your thoughts on the matter.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/18/09 at 7:29 pm

Sam: Yeah - let’s wait and see.  Been good to discuss this issue with you and Rube.  With many people discussing these issues around the world and with friends at home, there is a similar consensus.  Everyone’s thoughts generally point into one direction and that’s some form of war/military confrontation with the regime, either the U.S and Allies will do it - but more than likely it’ll be Israel who’ll light the fuse.  These are the interesting times.

Comment by james Johnson on 8/19/09 at 5:25 am

We have to be “Monday morning quarterbacks” and critique the events of last night’s game.  Too bad its not as simple as that. My bet is Israeli first strike should it come to that.
Catch you later.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/19/09 at 7:22 am

I’m with you on that bet!

Comment by James Johnson on 8/19/09 at 8:05 am

Sam: Read this http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=107326

Comment by James Johnson on 8/19/09 at 8:40 am

James: Thanks for the “Read this” article. Iran and Syria are sending arms into Lebanon and Gaza.  Who makes the arms is immaterial.  To the country that manufactured them, they welcome the sale.  Think American arms aren’t smuggled in? Israel cant allow any country to dictate the when, where and how Israel shoud act. James Baker summed it all up when he said “We need oil, not Jews” and he was the US Sec of State at the time. If Israel depends upon outside help, it will get wiped out.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/19/09 at 10:15 am

Many of the comments expressed by the readers of this forum have proposed ideas or solutions to a clear and present danger. I have thought this through and all the variations have been that a first strike by Israel seems to be the common thread. Yes this a possibility but nuclear action presents dangers that could be nothing short of disastrous.
However the one plan or proposal has not mentioned biological warfare with a non lethal method.
The Israeli research facility,s are world renown for their imaginative and ground breaking results on drugs for dread diseases.
What if a non lethal nerve gas has been produced and the weather patterns studied over the target areas In Iran are sowed from high altitude unmanned predator aircraft to drop bomblets containing this harmless nerve gas automatically releasing at a lower altitude which would disable the population groups for 72 hours in which time Israeli forces could render the known nuclear sites inactive by destroying the key elements required to make nuclear components. Russia and the US have since the cold war have been working on biological warfare possibilities.Maybe this idea is fanciful, but should it work the whole world at large would have to accept this form of military strategy as a peaceful attempt to prevent a nuclear holocaust

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/20/09 at 2:54 am

Sam/Rube: Interesting development: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/world/europe/20russia.html

Rube: That’s certainly an interesting proposition, not quite sure if it’d knock out the right people, as in the military will more than likely have greater protection than civilian population but non-lethal force like this certainly has some ground, if not a total solution, but could be part of it.  I also think that something previously done has to be utilised in order to carry out a successful mission.  There are some interesting ideas on these posts.  Maybe the Israelis have something, some trick up their sleeves, something in combination with F16’s and bunker busters and ballistic missiles which will stun the world.  Let’s wait and see, we must hope for peace while at the same time be prepared for war.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/20/09 at 6:43 am

Israel is Britans little puppet, not Americas. The British own Israel and can decide if Iran should be attacked or not. Stop saying America Obama giving the green light, this statement is not true at all. Please read the History, every country in the world is owned and operated by a major super power. Israel is owned by The British Rule.

Comment by Uncle Sam on 8/20/09 at 7:18 am

I have been following the comments closely. What started out as a discussion as to whether Israel, with or without America’s help, should perform a limited, targeted first strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities before Iran achieves critical mass of weapons grade material has taken numerous twists and turns. These have run the gamut from suggestions that Iran has “sleeper cells” armed with nuclear weapons in every major capital city to now suggesting a “limited” biological attack. I think that we ought to stick to facts and reasonable scenarios in attempting to solve this pressing issue. Some of the comments have not furthered this agenda. In particular, the matter is first and foremost a political problem: there is no doubt that either Israel or the US could completely flatten Iran and kill all life forms. That is a given, so why it is not being done is because there are immense political repercussions, particularly in the Arab world, if such an attack was made. The guiding principle here is how to destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions without provoking uncontainable anger from the world community, especially Arabs, and especially Arabs that control most of the world oil supply. Of great import is any destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities must be done without angering Iran’s Arab neighbors enough to prompt a retaliatory strike against Israel as the dust settles. The last thing anyone wants is for Egypt, Syria, Jordon, Lebanon, the Palestinians, what remains of Iran’s army, and all the other Arab nations in the region to be so outraged that they combine forces in a massive counterstrike against Israel. It would be an awful war, many lives lost on both sides, and Israel would be left devastated and isolated. On our side is the political reality that most of the Arab states don’t want Iran to obtain nuclear capability either. Therefore, logically, the strike must be big enough to castrate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but not so massive as to force Arab states to join in retaliation. it is a fine, fine line. Which makes comments such as using biological weapons, nerve gas, chemical weapons, absolutely positively totally out of the question. All of these weapons are banned by multiple treaties, and their use would unite the entire world, never mind Arab states, against Israel. It would be suicide to use these weapons. As it is, Israel is walking a fine line considering a limited military strike +/- nuclear weapons. Politically the best course would be to use conventional weapons such as “bunker busters” and other armor piercing high explosives. This requires on-site intelligence as to where the centrifuges are, what it will take to negate them, complex tactical and strategic planning using air power, short range missiles, cruise missiles, and highly accurate precision guided bombs. The lower the civilian casualty rate the better Israel will weather world public opinion. Talk of tactical nuclear weapons or biological/chemical warfare is nonsense, it would be like shooting a chicken with a .338 magnum. The other chickens wouldn’t like it. Lets keep this discussion focused on the issues and realistic. Even the most hawkish Israeli leader wouldn’t even consider biological or chemical weopons. If one opens that door and throws military grade weoponized anthrax across you can be sure Russia would be all too willing to provide it’s vast knowledge of biological weopons to the highest bidder. Israel is the perfect nation to be destroyed by biological weopons: it’s geographically small, the assault can come from any point on the compus, it has a high density population making person to person spread rapid and easy, it’s water supply is not redundent allowing easy contamination at selected “choke” points, etc. Once the cat is out of the bag, i.e. biological or chemical weopons are first used, then anything goes. The ONLY option is a difficult conventional massive first strike, focused on Iran’s centrifuges, stock piles of enriched material, etc. with minimum civilian casulties. That option is fraught with logistic, tactical, etc. massive problems to be solved, so all our energies and focus should be on finding a solution.

Walter J. Wrobleski

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/20/09 at 8:16 am

Rube:
I laughed about your comment on biological warfare because I thought of a whole country with diarrhea.  Bio warfare is scary and can backfire in a flash. Everyone has a right to his opinion.  I believe it can be used on the air intakes of the underground nuke facilities damaging the equipment and rendering it useless.  No mention of loss of lives here.
Uncle Sam: The Brits hate Israel because they embarassed the shit out of them when they blew up the King David hotel.  They’ve always had a close kinship with the Arabs. I think you’re an arab Uncle Sam.  Read up on history and learn something.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/20/09 at 8:25 am

Walter:  You cant talk to people who want to kill you.  The situation at hand has never been seen before. We are privvy to no information as to what the Israeli “Thinkers/worriers) are thinking so we express our opinions.  Israel when it was formed fought the many countries all at the same time and just happened to win the 1948 war.  The world bet that they’d get beaten.  The world wished they’d lose.  The situation is totally different because Israel has the strike capability to eradicate various arab countries.  They didn’t develope the bomb for offensive purposes so they stockpiled bombs in the event they were threatened or attacked.  They’ve been threatened and as past records show, the Iranians are hell bent on Israel’s destruction
and them controlling all countries in the Middle East.
My opinion.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/20/09 at 8:50 am

Wow this gets better everyday.  Very interesting points being risen here, like Sam says were just hypothesising here, an open discussion, some of it outlandish but it’s a case of how to deal with a power base (Iran) which wants to wipe Israel off of the map.  How do you deal with this fanatical mindset, from planes flown into the twin towers and the pentagon, to the recent Mumbai massacre in November 2008, the list goes on.  Not saying that Iran had direct links with these atrocities, but that it is culture of movement and related beliefs which is perpetrating all of this.
Just a moment ago I read that Lockerbie bomber Ali al-Megrahi is to be freed on compassionate grounds.  It’s in my opinion that as a people of civilised nations, with an advanced level of moral judgement we should exercise compassion and take the moral high ground, but in this case I fear we’ve projected ourselves as weak before the butchers who perpetrated this foul act.
You cannot show mercy to a terrorist network or a movement which carries out these acts, you hold out an olive branch and the hand of goodwill. Yes - they will take your money, you aide, your smiles and warmth, only several years later they’ll cut off the heads of your family with no remorse.  This is the situation with Iranian regime I think, they’re extreme and do not work by our moral worldly principles.  Throw that into the bag with an extreme right Israeli cabinet and we’re heading for a show down.  Walter, I agree with your points about Biological and Chemical weapons etc.  But I think that when Iran retaliates to Israel’s surgical strikes (surgical to make it appear better on the world stage) I doubt very much Iran will be play the same card.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/20/09 at 9:36 am

James: We are at a point in history where the same situation happened and the world learned from it.  Should Israel strike first (I say this because it’s highly likely) the Iranians will retaliate unlike Syria and Lebanon.  Military strategists say that there are too many targets for Israel to hit in one raid.  Two raids one following the other? Iran will still retaliate with their long range rockets.  They have rockets on wheels that can be relocated so that hitting them is damn near impossible. Remember the Israeli Air Force looking for Scud missiles and not finding them.  I say again, whatever Israel strikes with, they cannot afford a retaliatory strike by Iran.  Never has the world encountered this danger before because the consequences may be worse than the initial attack.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/20/09 at 10:10 am

Sam and James: I agree 100%: Iran is a rogue state run by fanatics hell bent on wiping Israel off the face of the earth. A nuclear armed Iran is unthinkable. They have to be stopped. My point is that Israel should expect massive Iranian retaliation and thus should proceed so as the global stage is on their side, including “moderate” Arab states. If Israel uses chemical or biological weapons then they lose the moral high ground. There will already be massive Iranian civilian casualties when Israel takes out the reactor in Bushehr. Heavy radioactive contamination will render the area unlivable in our lifetime, and the surrounding population will suffer horrendous radiation induced immediate deaths with following long term radiation sickness and genetic malformations for decades. I say tough luck for the Iranians: they built the reactor in the first place, so it’s on their bloody hands. Israel is just protecting itself. The more that I think about it I think Israel will go the missile route, their Jericho’s armed with conventional weapons. No doubt the US is now heavily involved in making the Jericho super accurate and also providing the heavy bunker busting bombs necessary to punch through the Iranian’s reinforced concrete bunkers underground that are protecting the nuclear sites. A first strike missile attack makes the most sense. It protects the IAF from projected heavy losses, takes out the nuclear facilities, and missiles can also target the widespread Iranian anti-aircraft installations surrounding the nuclear sites. Once these anti-aircraft sites are taken out or crippled then the IAF can come in for a second run at the targets, thereby delivering a one-two punch, increasing the odds of a successful mission, minimizing IAF casualties, and keep Iran on the defensive. Hopefully Israel is rapidly producing Jericho II’s and III’s, obtaining US assistance in arming them with appropriate ordinance, and providing the necessary high tech guidance systems required to hit targets that are often only meters apart.
It’s going to be a bloodbath that is for sure. Iran will respond with its own missiles, and Hamas and Hezbollah will also bombard Israel with their missiles from launching sites in Lebanon and Gaza amongst others. The Israeli missile defense shield is supposedly not yet operational so there will be widespread casualties in Israel. I am at a loss as to why the US has not openly signed a treaty with Israel stating that any attack on Israel will be considered an attack on the US. Myself and all my friends feel that Israel is a fortress of democracy in the middle east, and has been a long time treasured friend and ally. Hopefully there is some secret arrangement whereby if Israel is attacked the US will at the very least unleash a massive strike using cruise missiles and airpower from carrier groups in the gulf. Iran would have a difficult time fighting a two front war, simultaneously fending off Israel while it’s southern flank is being pounded by US air power. In addition we have a lot of troops and equipment in the region from fighting Iraq and now Afghanistan; it would not take much to turn our troops around and deploy them on Iran’s eastern border. Iran would be forced to place a large number of troops to protect that border even if we end up never attacking. So Iran would be fighting the full power of Israel, US carrier based airpower, and would have to protect it’s eastern flank against a buildup of US troops. That would leave it’s communications down, surgical bombing would disrupt flow of troops/equipment/fuel/food/etc. and Iran’s army is NOT sophisticated enough to have redundancy in it’s logistic support of it’s army. We all know that an army marches on it’s stomach, and artillery marches on it’s fuel, and soldiers follow orders only if they can receive them.
That is my opinion on the proper way to deal with the Iranian threat. Do it now, use missiles first, then the IAF, hopefully the US will stand by its friend and ally and provide disruptive surgical air, missile, and cruise missile denying command and control, and taking out half the Iranian army which would have to protect against the massive US buildup along it’s border. No sense waiting; Iran is obviously hell bent on acquiring nuclear weapons, waiting will accomplish nothing. The current regime will not negotiate in good faith. It will be hell on earth though, that is for sure.

Walter J Wrobleski

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/20/09 at 4:53 pm

Walter: The US will be tarred with the same brush as Israel. 20 or more years ago, your military opinion would have been more valid but times have changed.  Israel cannot afford a retaliatory strike so whatever they do, Iran needs to stand down as did Syria and Iraq.I don’t know how the Israelis can accomplish this for they know the consequences of a failed knockout strike. (Too many targets). I think the whole Middle East is waiting to see what the Israelis will do because they might get involved in something not of their making. The situation needs diplomacy and you can’t have a one way conversation.  Iran literally needs the sht kicked out of it and the crippling of its war machine.  The surrounding countries are going to be swallowed up by Iran.  After Israel, the Middle East.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/20/09 at 7:45 pm

Sam, it seems that you feel that Israel could not withstand a retaliatory strike from Iran so instead of a first strike against nuclear installations Israel should instead attempt an all out war to destroy Iran such that it can’t mount any kind of retaliatory strike? In essence the theory being that since Iran has built up a large military with long range missile capability, and has exported same to countries/terrorist groups surrounding Israel, such that Iran now must be totally knocked out or don’t even try. I agree, and change my mind. You are right, this isn’t 20 years ago and now Iran has the military capability to launch an unacceptable retaliation that would result in untold Israeli deaths, including innocent civilians, and would probably use chemical/biological weapons or anything at their disposal. Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran so one can be sure that Iran embarked on a large scale chemical weapons program.
I’m not sure Israel has the military might to sufficiently cripple Iran enough to prevent retaliation. Iran is a huge country and has been militarizing for decades, now armed to the teeth. I do not know current Israeli military power enough; can Israel dismantle Iran’s military machine enough to prevent retaliation without using it’s nuclear option? Or would Israel need full active US support, and not just in a supportive minor role. Now we’re talking actual Abrams tanks rumbling across the Iranian border and US troops invading and occupying Iranian territory. Anybody who knows feel free to pitch in.
Do you think that is what is being planned, or do you think that the US administration has accepted Iran as a member of the nuclear club because the stakes are too high? Where does that leave our great ally, Israel? Alone, facing a nuclear armed Iran whose stated aim is to “wipe Israel off the face of the earth”? It seems none of the options are good, they all suck. The only good option is for Iran to negotiate and agree to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, but given the hard liners now firmly in control in Tehran what is the chance of that happening? I fear the worst…..What exactly is Israel capable on it’s own if it went full strength against Iran using conventional weapons in terms of wiping out any significant Iranian response against Israel? Would Israel need direct US support to crush Iran?

Walter

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/20/09 at 11:53 pm

Walter: Any response from Iran would have a devestating effect on Israel.  Not so much as destroying much but killing a lot of Israelis.  I firmly believe that Israel has no option but to terrorize the Iranian government into making them take the attack and not retaliating.  I believe it’s time to drop a nuke in a scarcely populated place in Iran.  The Iranians wouldn’t retaliate then for that in return will bring nukes onto Teheran and other major cities.  Will Israel be condemned by the world?  Yes.  Will the US get blamed too? Yes.  The only way to dismantle Iran is to terrorize it.  Something new in the annals of warfare.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/21/09 at 1:52 am

Walter,Sam, James you all have been the most prolific writers and the menace facing the entire planet, not only Israel. If the Iranians should retaliate using dirty nuclear missiles then the world with other countries may join in creating radio active pollution world wide is clearly possible, weather which has been changing due to global warming and the unpredictable results. How would Russia be affected as it is not that far from Iran geographically speaking?
There are so many options facing the military and the answers are not easily to come by. Referring to the comment that Israel is a puppet of Britain is laughable.
Since all the comments refer to a diabolical fanatical leader of the Rogue State such as Iran, and since the other Islamic states realize that their brothers are hell bent on self destruction , and they also in great danger as is Israel of being wiped off the map?? So what is the military answer gentlemen?? I stop to think if it is my life is threatened by a criminal and I and the criminal are both armed, will it be who shoots first or do we both die if we both fired at the same time and both dead!
Is this what the so-called democratic world wants?
We will soon witness the reality of the Israeli-Iran armageddon

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/21/09 at 2:43 am

Rube: I agree with your commentary.  The reason that US=China=Russia don’t war on each other is the nuke deterrent as well as each not threatening each other.The major powers are at ease with their thousands of nukes.  The fear of a retaliation means if you dont destroy the country, you in turn will be destroyed.  The singlemost peacekeeper is the nuke.  I don’t know how the Israel=Iran mess will turn out.  A new twist that happened today is that Iran said it would welcome nuke inspectors to one of their sites or maybe more.  Who knows if they aren’s buying and storing nukes now?

Comment by sam corwin on 8/21/09 at 4:35 am

I thought that I had a good grasp of the situation when I first started following this thread. My thinking has evolved tremendously due to all the thoughtful comments made. Sam’s latest comment somehow brought clarity to the situation. He is right, Iran will not negotiate or stop attempting to go nuclear, and any scenario would result in unacceptable Israeli losses except the nuclear option against Iran via first strike. For some reason it suddenly seems obvious, that this option is the only one left. If Israel detonates a large thermonuclear device in a sparsely populated region of Iran several things will happen. First, since Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon yet it would literally force Iran to the bargaining table if Israel says “if you don’t begin disarmament and start negotiating the next one is for Tehran”. Most bullies, when called on it, are shown to be insecure and usually back down. No one has really called Iran’s bluff yet. Having a thermonuclear bomb go off on their territory with a demand for negotiations and disarmament would surely force their hand, and as we all know terrorists only respond to terror. Secondly, there would most likely be no retaliation as any strike against Israel would be known to propagate a second Israeli nuclear strike. Regarding world opinion I’m not so sure Israel would be condemned. Most of the world views Iran as an unstable terrorist state, and Israel as a bastion of democracy in an part of the world dominated by rogue states, dictatorships, terrorists, etc. Iran is a huge country- it measures something like 1600 miles by 1000 miles, most of the land being arid and/or mountainous, and I think that it might be possible to find a place where no one is killed. Most of the population is centered around the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, and the Caspian Sea. Most of Eastern and Southeastern Iran is a virtual wasteland.
In any case the Iranians brought it on themselves so if some lives are lost they can only blame themselves. As the saying goes for terrible people or governments to exist all that has to happen is silence, and the Iranian people have had ample opportunity to stand up and say “Wait, this is crazy saying we want to wipe out an entire nation. Stop!”. Yet I hear no voices crying out in Iran to draft a document stating Israel’s right to exist. I won’t lose any sleep over it if Israel does decide to do a nuclear attack minimizing casualties, in part because we all know that if the situation was reversed Iran would directly target Tel Aviv. So, screw them, I now pronounce myself enlightened: nuke em’.

Walter

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/21/09 at 4:53 am

Sam, Walter & Rube,

How many twists and turns have we made here?  Keep thinking….keep reading….keep writing.  I have pondered various scenarios with this and have relished your thoughts too, it all keeps adding new light to it - the what ifs!  I first posted on this weblog with the idea that Iran could have been and still could be covertly testing a nuclear weapon with the North Koreans on North Korean soil.  A joint funded and joint developed weapon system and due to the political situation in the Middle East, Kim Jong-il decided to host the tests on his soil, taking the heat off of his Middle Eastern ally and main financial funder of the project.  This is just my hypothesis, but one which has haunted me for a while.  I read an article in the media recently stating that the recent ballistic missile tests were attended by an Iranian delegation from their military industrial complex.  North Korea has also funneled money and expertise into the development of a nuclear facility in Syria, which the Israeli Air Force knocked out in 2007.
Read: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE5234N220090304

A Syrian/Iranian/North Korean alliance.  There are dark questions to be asked here and we really do not know what is going on, am damn sure CIA, MI6, Mossad has a better focus, but what if they’re caught up in the mystery too and guessing as we are.  Iran could have built numerous nuclear installations under the surface of the desert, ringed them with missiles and anti-aircraft guns, but these are legitimate sites in the world view, but somewhere there are underground complexes with no fences, missiles, undisclosed factories which are producing the nuclear material for a weapon, with only the upper echelons of the Iranian leadership in the know.

Israel will launch an attack on Iran soon and as Walter states, it will commence with ballistic missiles followed by waves of aircraft with bunker busting munitions, but if what I am stating above has any truth to it, then we’re just going to be knocking out the decoys. The real program shall remain intact as we’ve constantly been looking in the wrong places.  This is just my thoughts.
I think the Iranian leadership has watched what happened to Saddam Hussein, twice running, they’ve seen what western airpower and satellite and laser guided bombs can do.  I am damn sure they’ve worked hard to make surer that the same fate doesn’t fall onto them, they’ve set the stage and have worked out the play from the onset.  They have the money and the contacts with other nations who will supply them the expertise at a cost.  What have the Russians given the Iranians over the past 10 years in terms of technical assistance?  Money talks and did the Russians sell out at one point, prior to what we know now?

Imagine when Israel attacks Iran, at this very point Iran retaliates, Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian military and missles, N.Korea decides to invade S.Korea.  With the U.S and NATO wrapped up in Iraq and Afghanistan, we’ve then got a third front to fight in the Middle East and a fourth front on the Korean peninsula.  Over stretched, our forces struggle to deal with these four points.  Then China adds the fifth twist by invading Taiwan, thinking that the world is so heavily distracted by all which is going on.
A domino effect, in a sense a world riot.  Governments taking advantage of one mess leading to another while other powers are distracted.  This is a real flight of fancy, but it in a sense happened in World War II. 

It could lead to one hell of a mess, at the very least, we could be looking at a lot of Israeli dead, ten times as many Iranian and a nuclear dust cloud over the Persian Gulf - but a denuclearised Iran. 

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/21/09 at 7:02 am

We all wish for “Peace in the Middle East.” What follows next after the diplomacy (Currently none) ceases to be talked about being a solution. I would imagine that the Israelis have been over the various scenarios and at some point will have to decide on what to do.  The US is supposedly Israelis best friend but they are not threatened with annihilation.James I disagree with your “Very point Iran retaliates” because if the Israeli’s work it out right, Iran and cronies will cringe at the thought of “What comes next if we retaliate?” The fear of God must be dealt to the Iranians and no retaliation will follow.  They’ll stand down like Syria.  A second strike by Israel will wipe Iranian cities off the map.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/21/09 at 10:29 am

Sam: What could happen is the Muslim world shall be further outraged at an Israeli attack and terror groups deeply sympathetic to the Iranian standpoint and the Palestinian question could unite and cause a wave of terror strikes across the globe and the region.  As the attacks shall not be coming from an particular destination or from an particular nation state, what would Israel be face with?  Would Israel be faced with taking on the entire Middle East or the entire Muslim world to stop or prevent these terror attacks which covertly are orchestrated from Tehran.  What if the Iranians do as I suggest in an earlier post have a basic 20kt atomic weapon, or several already.  It’s not enough to simply think that a couple of ballistic missile submarines sitting in the Indian Ocean, once freed of their deadly cargo, which then bring about the ruin every Iranian City is going to neutralise the situation.  When a vehicle carrying a 20kt weapon stops at a set of traffic lights in central Tel Aviv or New York or London or all three and are detonated, it possibly doesn’t matter to a fascist maniac that their own country lay in ruins - because they’ve dealt us the blow they always wanted to deliver upon us and they know that that shall be something maybe we shall never recover from. 
I hope you’re right, that Iran shall stand down, but this I feel would be the action of a rational and reasonable adversary.
I think that we’re dealing with a very different creature here.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/23/09 at 9:09 am

This is a lot of verbage and windbag comments:

Here it is:

If Israel doesn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilityies, it will be blown out of existance.

Comment by Ronald Ginson on 8/23/09 at 2:53 pm

Ronald: It’s called an open discussion and we’re voicing our thoughts on the issue.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/23/09 at 3:01 pm

Interesting development, rumours are circulating that the hijacked ship ‘Arctic Sea’ which went missing enroute to Algeria from Finland, was something to do with Mossad.  Speculation is that the ship contained a secret consignment of S-300V advanced Russian surface to air missiles, which were bound for Iran.  These missiles are so accurate that if installed could seriously thwart an Israeli air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Israel could loose 20-30% of it’s aircraft in the assault as the missiles have a range of 100 miles and are reported to be tamperproof by methods of electronic jamming etc.  One theory or rumour….

Comment by James Johnson on 8/23/09 at 3:11 pm

So Ron, your answer is too simplistic.  The big question is not why but how.  You have the answer to destroy the facilities? James: Another scenario to the ongoing crisis that only gets more dangerous as time goes on.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/23/09 at 7:31 pm

James re; 23rd What would happen:  Arab world stand up against Israel? Possibility but slight.  More terrorism likely.  As I said earlier, this is a new era and noone has been in the same situation as Israel faces as before. New tactics, smarter thinking.  I don’t believe Israel will physically bomb the nuke sites. To many with slight chance of changing the situation. What happens if you yell “Fire” in a crowded movie theatre? Mass panic.  That’s what will make Iran stand down. Scare the shit out of them but not by bluffing.  Nice guys finish last.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/23/09 at 7:51 pm

sam,James,Walter. Reading and theorizing the myriad ideas, solutions,first strike , second strike, who the hell knows? one thing for sure somebody is going to get hurt leading to a global destruction by nuclear means as has always been feared. The Russians like to play their favourite game “Russian Roulette” I cannot figure out their intentions because the real man behind the current president is calling the shots! You all know that Putin was a one time KGB big wig. Russia has an agenda playing one country against another. So where do the Western countries figure in the overall plan?
What if the Pentagon decides to take matters in hand and launch some form of attack leaving the Israeli’s out of the game. Or with a another game plan of long rage ballistic missiles from the nuclear subs using conventional types of explosives as a warning sample of what will follow. The whole situation is in a state of a waiting game on a giant chessboard of chance.
Next thought which has been going through my mind is the threat of world domination by the Islamic world on a course of shifting populations becoming a factor such as has happened in Europe now with 46 million Muslims permeating European society and some already cabinet ministers!! This is a stark reality. With a world population exceeding one billion,in one generation the Western world will start turning brown.
Some time back when I was in The US in the Detroit area in Dearborn their over 200,000 mixed population of Muslims. Where is that little dove of peace?

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/24/09 at 2:58 am

Hi all to the Forum
Taken off the internet today, what do you all make of it.  Rube
Revealed: Israel Plans Nuclear Strike on Iran

by:  |  Visit article original @

  Revealed: Israel Plans Nuclear Strike on Iran
  By Uzi Mahnaimi, New York and Sarah Baxter, Washington
  The Sunday Times

  Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.

  Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources.

  The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.

  Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels” into the targets. “Mini-nukes” would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.

  “As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,” said one of the sources.

  The plans, disclosed to The Sunday Times last week, have been prompted in part by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad’s assessment that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons within two years.

  Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.

  Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack.

  Some analysts warned that Iranian retaliation for such a strike could range from disruption of oil supplies to the West to terrorist attacks against Jewish targets around the world.

  Israel has identified three prime targets south of Tehran which are believed to be involved in Iran’s nuclear programme:

  * Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges are being installed for uranium enrichment

  * A uranium conversion facility near Isfahan where, according to a statement by an Iranian vice-president last week, 250 tons of gas for the enrichment process have been stored in tunnels

  * A heavy water reactor at Arak, which may in future produce enough plutonium for a bomb Israeli officials believe that destroying all three sites would delay Iran’s nuclear programme indefinitely and prevent them from having to live in fear of a “second Holocaust”.

  The Israeli government has warned repeatedly that it will never allow nuclear weapons to be made in Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has declared that “Israel must be wiped off the map”.

  Robert Gates, the new US defence secretary, has described military action against Iran as a “last resort”, leading Israeli officials to conclude that it will be left to them to strike.

  Israeli pilots have flown to Gibraltar in recent weeks to train for the 2,000-mile round trip to the Iranian targets. Three possible routes have been mapped out, including one over Turkey.

  Air force squadrons based at Hatzerim in the Negev desert and Tel Nof, south of Tel Aviv, have trained to use Israel’s tactical nuclear weapons on the mission. The preparations have been overseen by Major General Eliezer Shkedi, commander of the Israeli air force.

  Sources close to the Pentagon said the United States was highly unlikely to give approval for tactical nuclear weapons to be used. One source said Israel would have to seek approval “after the event”, as it did when it crippled Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak with airstrikes in 1981.

  Scientists have calculated that although contamination from the bunker-busters could be limited, tons of radioactive uranium compounds would be released.

  The Israelis believe that Iran’s retaliation would be constrained by fear of a second strike if it were to launch its Shehab-3 ballistic missiles at Israel.

  However, American experts warned of repercussions, including widespread protests that could destabilise parts of the Islamic world friendly to the West.

  Colonel Sam Gardiner, a Pentagon adviser, said Iran could try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the route for 20% of the world’s oil.

  Some sources in Washington said they doubted if Israel would have the nerve to attack Iran. However, Dr Ephraim Sneh, the deputy Israeli defence minister, said last month: “The time is approaching when Israel and the international community will have to decide whether to take military action against Iran.”

Comment by Rube Bark on 8/24/09 at 3:50 am

RubeL Israel has drawn up secret plans which is now no secret:  If I were a boxer, I’d never telegraph my punches.  To beat you, I’d keep you off guard and strike where and when you least expect it. You expect one thing and wonder why you got knocked out from a blow you least expected.  I believe when it does occur, we’ll all be surprised. My guess is a Teheran terrorized by fear.  How it’s accomplished, I don’t know.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/24/09 at 4:13 am

Another aspect to think about.  Iran’s newest ally Iraq.
Not on the surface yet but with the political instability in Iraq, Iran is probably setting up a Hezbollah type of organization there.  Look how much closer this brings them to Israel.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/24/09 at 7:35 pm

Sam: What happens in the near future if the Taliban in Pakistan manage to destabilise the government there and obviously that brings into doubt Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which is ready to fly, or an alliance between the Iranians and Pakistani’s, if an extremist government ousts the Musharraf government.  Room for wider expansion of this problem across the region.  Several years from now and after the last of the US forces have left Iraq, the country could quite easily descend back into anarchy and back into the hands of a warlord, possibly very sympathetic to the Iranian regime.  The fear is that the rise in radical islam across the region and the globe could destabilise the Middle East and Western countries in Europe.
The very nature of our political system is that it’s a democracy and we’re very inclusive of all religions and creeds.  The same is not said of Muslim regimes across the world.  By the very nature of our freedoms could we in a sense have pulled the rug from under our feet?

Comment by James Johnson on 8/25/09 at 10:48 am

James: What if scenarios are all mind games.  Many smart people think up these scenarios and counter measures. Pakistan_India. Different equation that meshes into an overall picture.  Democracy is dangerous.  There are countries that need a dictatorship to remain peaceful (Tito-Yugoslavia).There is no one or two simple answers. Situations evolve and you handle them as they arrive except in the case of Iran-Israel. Look at Bibi in Europe.  He’s doing a tap dance and he’s good at it. Settlements won’t stop and Obama’s upcoming solution will be finessed.  Obama should concentrate on Fatah and Hamas and let the smart people(Israel) work on its own problems. Obama is in deep trouble meddling around with the CIA.  Kennedy’s assasination was never solved and there were rumors that the CIA had a hand in it. So basically, every country has problems.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/25/09 at 7:44 pm

Sam: Mind games are being played out for sure.  I read in the news this morning an article regarding Wikipedia.  Gordon Brown was in dispute with David Cameron, some debate which involved the painter Titian.  Not sure of the contents of this debate, that’s not the point here, but David Cameron was clearly wrong in his argument and a Conservative Government Aide altered information on the page about Titian to make David Cameron appear right, when he was indeed wrong.  Just a very small thing and something which was overlooked at the time and still doesn’t get taken that seriously, but is obviously just a minor splinter, a small part of a wider picture of government deceit, lies and coverup!  Very interesting indeed.  So as you say, the CIA had a role in Kennedy’s assassination, I do not dispute that.  I’ve read the books, seen the documentaries and the whole case doesn’t stack up right when you do the maths.  So we’re being lied to our faces by our leaders - this is obvious.  The oil deals being brokered between the British Government and Libya, the a convicted terrorist is freed on supposed ‘compassionate grounds’.  I never heard of such a thing when moors murderess Myra Hindley was asking for ‘compassionate release’ when she was diagnosed with terminal breast cancer.  When Peter Mandelson said on TV last week that he was appalled at the suggestion that Megrahi was freed in order to pave the way for lucrative oil deals - I just sat there, possibly like 30 million others and just thought ‘liar’.  What do we do, we do nothing and they just get on with it, in a few weeks, months, we’re busy all earning a living, tired and we just conveniently forget.
Mind games.

There clearly is a war looming on the horizon between Iran and Israel. 

That’s a fact.

But what it shall entail could be as we’ve all been surmising over these past number of weeks - or we all could be 10,000 miles off the mark. 

We never saw 9/11 coming did we.  Who’d have thought that would have happened in the way that it did!

Be prepared for a surprise I say.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/26/09 at 5:47 am

Beyond conjecture, including how far Iran is along in obtaining nuclear weapons, and whether or not North Korea is in collusion, or whether the US will provide support for an Israeli strike, etc. I think that several unassailable facts can be taken as true. I believe these facts are: (1) Whether Iran is attempting to obtain nuclear weapons or is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes is irrelevant: what Israel believes is all that counts, and unless Iran opens up it’s entire nuclear program to international inspectors soon Israel will assume that Iran is on the brink of “going nuclear”. (2) Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran regardless of repercussions of a pre-emptive strike. They believe, rightfully so, that the alternative is a nuclear Iran which will destroy Israel. Of the two choices Israel will be forced to choose the first, regardless. (3) Given (2) there has to be no question that a planned military strike is not only being planned, but is in it’s final stages of determining the best way to both (a) eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat and (b) minimizing Iranian retaliatory options.
  It would seem that in order to reliably eliminate Iranian nuclear ambitions overkill is necessary. The fact that Iran’s centrifuges and other other components are now hard protected I can not see how any current conventional weapon can ensure success through 70+ feet of hardened concrete. Even the best US “bunker buster” has only a capability of 10-15 feet through hardened concrete. If that were to even double with rapid technology advancement that brings us to only 30 feet, less than half the distance required. Therefore the military targets must be destroyed by nuclear means. Now, if tactical nuclear weapons are used then Iranian retaliation will be massive. Other countries may join. So unfortunately the Israeli pre-emptive strike to prevent retaliation that would destroy Israel has got to be massive as well. Basically at a minimum it must take out Iran’s command and control structure, neutralize any missile threat (including Hezbollah and others), and the obtainment of genuine air superiority over the entire region. In addition, ground forces would have to make Israel essentially impenetrable by any enemy ground forces, either well organized nation troops or solitary terrorists. Gaza would have to closed own, etc. Israel would become essentially a military fortress under siege for who knows how long. The effect on the populace would be tremendous, both in everyday life as well as psychologically. It would threaten the very Israeli way of life, and although not destroying Israel in the usual sense it would destroy the very essence of what Israel is and stands for. No longer would Israel be a free and democratic state, able to conduct internal and external trade, with a free political system, and a secure population attempting to make the world better for their children. How long this situation would continue is unclear, but from past Middle East events everyone in the region has long memories.
  As such, have Israeli military and political leaders thouroghly thought out the post Israeli strike situation? If so, perhaps they have conclude that without US support such as post strike condition would be untenable, and they are becoming more acceptive of a nuclear armed Iran. Mutually assured destruction would be the stabilizing force, never a good thing.
    The US seems curiously oblivious to the mounting tensions between Israel and Iran. US politicians are preoccupied with the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, the heated debate over health care reform and the economy. Rarely is front page news devoted to the Israeli-Iran impasse. Why is this so? The US has always been heavily involved in any potential conflict brewing in the Middle East, particularly when Israel’s security is being threatened and particularly when the Middle East oil sources are threatened. Has the current administration forsaken Israel, or is there much underground cooperation going, such that the Obama administration does not want made public any support for Israel for fear of totally negating any possible last minute negotiations with the Iranians, while secretly planning support for an Israeli strike if it becomes necessary?
  In fact, through all the smoke and mirrors, the US is the major player here that so far hasn’t allowed it’s involvment or intent to be even guessed at. US support of Israel would greatly aid in the success of any Israel military strike. Alternatively, if the US steps aside leaving Israel on it’s own, that would diminish the probable success of an Israeli military strike but more importantly retaliation by Iran and others following any military action by Israel would either be encouraged by US uninvolvement or discouraged by US involvement. I’m sure that frantic messages are going back and forth between Israel and the US every day, yet the news media, the US Administration, etc. are totally quite on the whole issue. To think that such messages were not being made would be ignorant of the long standing US-Israeli relationship. I just wish I knew what the hell they were saying.

Walter

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/26/09 at 7:17 pm

James: For the record, I didn’t say that the CIA killed Kennedy but there were rumours of that. There are many ultra right organizations that if they believe Obama is a threat to the US——Also, there isn’t an honest gorvernment in the world.  Deal made with Lybia? Sure. Walter: US is deeply involved in Iraq and Afghanistan with things not going as planned.  Israel comes in further down the line in priority situations. A good attorney knows the answer to any question he poses so do military planners.  They plan the what ifs.  I don’t believe if a nuke is used on Iran they will retaliate in any form. Israel has the capability and the means of delivering nukes to destroy Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi etc.  When you use one of say 200, you still have 199 more. That my friend will deter/terrorize the Middle East.  No repercussion from Iran or its satellite organizations.  None whatsoever.  The burden of insuring no retaliation will fall on Iran’s shoulders.
No pinpoint bombings of military targets are needed. I thought of biologicqal weapons being used but it wouldn’t have the effect needed. Mass fear, world condemnation of a dastardly nuke attack will follow the use of one small nuke into Iran. No retaliation, no reprisals and Iran open to all inspections.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/26/09 at 7:46 pm

sam: do you really think that the US prioritizes Iraq and Afghanistan higher than a nuclear strike by Israel against Iran? It would seem such an event would destablize the entire Middle East and make Iraq and Afghanistan seem like trivial events in comparison. The US is primarily concerned with terrorizm under the guise of promoting democracy in the region. A war between Israel and Iran would have a vast influence on the “war on terror”, inciting more “radicalization” of the Arab population and essentially negating any progress the US has made on terror since 9/11. Such a war would provoke a widespread increase in terrorist activities directed at Israel, the US, and the west in general. It doesn’t seem realistic that the US intelligence and military would be unaware of those facts.

Walter

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/26/09 at 9:28 pm

Walter: Yes.  No American GI’s getting killed in either place, billions of dollars not being spent monthly etc. The whole Middle East is destabiled now.  Each country has it’s own problems. Everything is a gamble.  I think that with Iran being held hostage, terrorism will be greatly diminished.  In spite of what I say, I like people. Person to person people are generally peaceful. Get a government involved and people become pawns of the government. The Palestinian people are pawns of their own government such as it is.  The Palestinian refugee situation should have been resolved
decades ago and not by swamping Israel with them. There’s a lot of desert that can be reclaimed and cities built.  How did Tel Aviv get built?  By determined people with a concerted view of the future. The Palestinians want Israel to build them cities (Pay for them) while they squandered hundreds of millions of dollars that was to be used to help them.  I have no sympathy for the elite for they stole from the poor without helping them.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/27/09 at 12:30 am

Walter:  Change first line to read: No American GI’s getting killed in Israel, billions of dollars not spent monthly in Israel. Priority lies in these two places, not Israel. Were it not for the government, most American people feel that they shouldn’t be there in the first place.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/27/09 at 12:36 am

I once was told that if the whole world is saying one thing, and I am thinking another, then I’m probably wrong. It’s disheartening to hear that all you guys feel that the US ranks Iraq and Afghanistan higher than the security of Israel. I mean US-Israeli friendship goes back decades. Makes me feel ashamed of my government.

Walter

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/27/09 at 1:37 am

Walt: The facts are real.  Every country is interested primarily in it’s own security.  First America then the countries where the GI’s are getting killed and then Israel. What you have is on hand,(immediate) versus what if and when.  Problems that need to be resolved in order of priority and Israel is not first priority.  We can be the best of allies but my country’s priorities come first.  Were America not committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel would be higher on the priority list and America would be meddling more in the Middle East. I liken America to a fiddler who when he gets things taken apart can’t fix them . The intentions are good but if things don’t work, get someone else to fix them.  Money alone won’t do it.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/27/09 at 5:22 am

Sam/Walter:  Very interesting debate here.
I am without doubt that the U.S Government, Pentagon and CIA have plans in place for Israel and Iran in the event of military confrontation between the two.  Secretly there is a plan in place and intelligence is being shared minute by minute.  Even though the U.S and allies are involved in Iraq and Afghanistan and that’s where the fighting is and where the bullets are flying, it makes good filler for the news, a distraction from the scenario which we have been discussing.  I’m not suggesting that our forces are involved in these countries as filler, but that there is a duality in its coverage.  After all, even though we have a so called free press, in times of war there are stories which the government doesn’t want to be circulated and am sure that things of military nature are screened out.  I liken this as the lull before the storm.  All focus in the media is Afghanistan, Iraq, Paris Hilton, Michael Jackson etc.  There are stories and news of monstrous importance, but we’re instead fed with stories about what Brad Pitt had for his tea yesterday.  These media organisations are run by intellectual committee’s who decide what to air, it’s certainly not a random feed of articles.  There is a game of disinformation or propaganda at play, most definitely.  What we’ve been discussing here recently is probably one of the most important and difficult geopolitical/military situations of our age, probably of the 21st Century, yet hardly a word about it is being uttered in the mainstream media.

If you want kill the frog, don’t place it in a pan of boiling water, because it’ll jump out and save itself, instead you have to put it in cold water and slowly turn up the heat, the frog shall certainly succombe. The population is a little like this, we’re being fed pits at a time, an image of Ahmadinejad, the launch of a new Iranian rocket, then a month or so later a small news article on the nuclear issue, then back to the sport.  Bit by bit.  It’s like we’re all being softened and psychologically prepared for what would be a big shock and it is going to be a big shock anyway.

Under the surface, the Israel/US alliance is as strong as ever, the US shall not stand idly by and allow the Jewish state to be overrun or attacked in the event of war.  The U.S Military keeps its eyes focused on North Korea, Taiwan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Russia, there is planning and preparation for all contingencies.  I remember reading an article that an order of battle for an Iran conflict had been drawn up by the Pentagon under Donald Rumsfeld.  This plan is being updated and altered on a daily basis.  There are plans in place and silent whispers which the media can’t report on nor know about are bouncing above us via satellite on a daily basis 24 hours a day.

Case is, what’s the other guy doing?

Comment by James Johnson on 8/27/09 at 9:03 am

One of Sam’s comments struck me when he said “Were it not for the government, most American people feel that they shouldn’t be there in the first place”. The foreign policy agenda of any US administration probably is the least linked to the US population of any arena. Most Americans, if given the choice, would rather have our tax dollars spent overseas on Israel than Iraq or Afghanistan. Most of us “regular” guys wonder what the heck we are doing in this huge country called “Afghanistan” which has never had a centralized government, is run by various warlords and tribes with long histories and alliances, people who don’t even understand what a central government means, and just want to be left alone to grow poppy, make some money to feed their families, etc.
I personally would rather support Israel, deal with the Iranian and North Korean threats, make sure Pakistan doesn’t have it’s nukes fall into terrorist hands, help feed and provide clean water for the multiple developing countries in the world, control malaria/AID’s/etc., do some good for our very neighbors like Mexico, Central and South America, provide leadership in Global Warming initiatives, before the opportunity slips away be more aggressive in developing good relations with Russia, be more aggressive in the truly horrific world situations like the Rwanda genicide, Somolia, etc. to name a few, instead billions are being wasted in two rediculous wars, Iraq and Afghanistan, with no clear goal in mind, no clear tactical or strategic plan, and most importantly under obscure pretenses in the first place. Iraq because of WMD, which ironically were not present but are present in Iran, and fighting Al Queda terror camps in Afghanistan, which is ludicrous. The camps just pick up their limited material possessions, cross the border into Pakistan, or go over the next mountain, and continue training. I guess that I’m way off topic here so I’ll stop; just venting I guess. But Sam is right, there is a huge disjunction between US government foreign policy and what most Americans would prioritize.

Walter, off topic and venting

Comment by Walter J Wrobleski on 8/27/09 at 4:21 pm

Walter,

Venting is good and you’re not off topic.  I can’t make a lengthy reply to your text as I have to sleep, it’s getting later and I have a busy day tomorrow.  Your words and thoughts run some parallels with my own.  Iraq and Afghanistan, pointless wars - very true.  WMD? - what was that all about, as you say, they invaded the wrong country.  Afghanistan is a dust bowl of numerous tribes who’ve never wanted imposing on them the notion of Western Governance, why we can’t seem to get this into our thick heads, I’ll never know.  They’re hell bent on getting everyone in the planet into the fold, to live as we do with centralised planning and authorities, a great plan but isn’t the world going to end up a dull place, where you board a jet and get to a foreign exotic country only to find Starbucks and Burger King and everyone working 9-5 in a service industry doing pointless tasks?  Is this really the answer, has no body ever stopped to think that maybe some cultures are content with subsistence farming in a beautiful place with tight knit communities, fresh air, because of no cars, less stress and worry about the b-ll sh-t that people in Western countries have to contend with, who said what and how we live is right, there is after all a massive endemic breakdown of base family values in our societies and a sense of a vast spiritual poverty.  ‘He who dies with the most toys wins!’ Problems of a rich society, hedonistic and without direction.  We have in a sense everything.  But why should we impose this on other countries, let them find their own path to sorting out their problems.  As for why we never intervened in a just conflict i.e Rwanda and most of the Horn of Africa nor tried to get rid of Robert Mugabe I’ll never know.  But then there isn’t vast oil reserves under most of these countries like in the Middle East, again back to greed.
I like what you say Walter, it was a good vent.
I’ve written and rambled on here too much, I need to sleep.
Good night all.

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/27/09 at 7:29 pm

James: I agree with you however your place too much trust in America’s coming to Israels aid in case of attack. 1974 Yom Kipper War is a good example of that.  Book I read “Secret War Against the Jews” said that Nixon’s reply to Kissinger was “Let them get bloodied first”. Gen Haig saved Israels ass by getting Israeli officers into the States and learn how to use the TOW missiles, gave Israel the missiles and these missiles stopped the Egyptian tanks.
Before any action by the US military, the situation will be evalued and that takes time.  Remember, Israel was open to the tanks and tanks move. So, the best weapon that Israel has is the determination to kill before you get killed, whatever the cost.  When you speak of Iran=Israel war, it’s not piecemeal like Lebanon or Gaza.  This is juglar war and Israel cannot stand a retaliatory strike.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/27/09 at 7:48 pm

Sam: Your book sounds interesting, might have to look it up, do you recommend?
(More comments later)

Comment by James Johnson on 8/28/09 at 9:47 am

The fact that Israel and the US were not prepared to neutralize such an obvious threat the large number of known Egytption tanks in the Yom Kippor war is scary. The Egyptian tank threat was well know in advance; military defensive contingencies should have been well thought out in advance. Both countries got caught with their pants down, and hopefully every threat that could come out of an Israeli attack on Iran has been thought of and detailed neutralizations are in place. Further more, the fact that Israel and the US are time asynchronous regarding the time frame for Iran to “go nuclear” is a problem. Israel thinks that Iran will have enough enriched uranium and the technology to deliver it by the end of 2009. The US has stated a time frame of 2010-2013 at various times. Thus it is no wonder that each country is approaching the threat with different degrees of restive nervousness.
Both countries should get their time frames synchronized. So what seems most logical? It seems to me that if Iran had a nuclear weapons program for 18 years and no one knew about it, then any totalitarian closed regime like Iran can be pretty good at hiding things. Iran admits to having 9,000 centrifuges running day and night turning 238U to 235U. The only difference between reactor grade uranium and weapon grade 235U is the percentage of 235U in the non-fissionable U238. All centrifuges do is combine 238U with hexaflouride gas and spin uranium-hexfloride gas such that the heavier 238U seperates from fissionable 235U by the effect of gravity being vectored to bring heavier molecules towards the edge of the spinning gas, and the lighter fissionable 235U-hexafouride seperates out towards the inner vortex. Furthermore, the only difference between making reactor grade 3% 235U versus weapon grade 90%+ U235 is to re-spin and continuously increase the percentage of 235U.
Who knows what is going on in those deep contrete reinforced bunkers that aren’t being inspected? Two salient facts should clue us in. The fact that the Iranians have placed the centrifuges under 70 feet of reinforced concrete and aren’t allowing inspectors would, in my humble opinion, only be logically deduced to mean that they are doing what they are not supposed to be doing. Why else protect/harden the environment and why else prevent inspections?
No other reason makes sense; and if not now, in the future they will have undetectable sites (see below) if at any point they decide to stop inspections for any length of time. That being the case, it seems to me that the US should assume that Iran is actively pursuing high grade enrichment, and that the late 2009 date is not only possible but likely. Additionally, one can further argue that Iran souldn’t be allowed to enrich or obtain reactors at all (see below).
Several somewhat technical aspects need to be understood to support the latter statement, i.e. that Iran shouldn’t be allowed ANY centridudges or reactors, even if they say they will only use them for peaceful energy.
The first item is that the centrifuges used to enrich 238U to 235U are the same whether producing 3% U235 (Low Grade Uranium, or LGU)  used in reactors or the 90% U235 per unit mass U238 (high grade uranium or HGE) used in nuclear weapons as discussed above. All one does to obtain high grade uranium is keep recycling the enriched U238 back into the same centrifuges thus obtaining progressively higher percentages of 235U per 238U. Therefore continual suprise inspections are necessary, with actual samples of the enriched uranium that are being produced/stored being taken by inspectors for testing, along with log books, etc. to assure that HGU isn’t being produced. This assumes Iranian cooperation now and for all time.
Secondly, all reactors, as a natural course of 235U fission produce plutonium 239. In fact the U235/U238 fuel rods are usually kept in the reactor and the main secondary natural product of 235U fission is 239Pu. The 239Pu is usually just allowed to stay in the fuel rods and take part in the fission cycle without ever being removed. Approximately 30-40% of the energy of any reactor is in fact Pu239 fission, higher in so called “breeder reactors” in which the reactor is shut down, the fuel rods removed, and by a fairly simple chemical process pure 239Pu to taken out of the fuel rods. The 239Pu removed has more potential energy by fission than the original LGU originally put in the reactor, hence the term “breeder” reactor: the reactor can run forever on the original 235U first put in by extracting 239Pu and then using that for reactor fuel, or nuclear weapons.
Thus, surprise inspections are critical to keep any country “honest” by coming in without notice and being able to inspect any reactor and ascertain that the fuel cycle wasn’t interrupted and 239Pu taken out.
This is vitally important because the plutonium obtained from the fuel rods is almost pure fissionable 239Pu. 239Pu is much easier used to make a fissionable nuclear weapon because it’s “critical mass” (amount needed to begin an unstoppable ongoing fission reaction) is much smaller, and the complexity of the engineering necessary to produce a bomb is much less. The latter is true because a smaller amount of 239Pu is necesarry and thus the engeneering necessary to adequatly trigger and compress the 239Pu to uncontrolled fission reaction is much easier to achieve.
Consider then if Iran agrees to allow inspectors in go in now and inspect centrifuges, and lots more centrifudges are added. Additionally Iran will build numerous nuclear reactors as well. The problem is that in the future all it will take is for Iran to say “no” to inspectors for the time it takes to shut down one reactor, take out the fuel rods, replace them, and re-start the reactor. The partially used fuel rods can be easily hidden, and almost pure 239Pu extracted anytime. Similarly, all it would take is for Iran to dissalow inspections for a short time to recycle LGU into HGU and then hide it.
This means that not only must Iran be trusted now, any country allowed to have a nuclear program for production of power must ALWAYS be trusted to allow spontaneous inspections. The main problem is the short amount of time needed to shut down a reactor, take out the fuel rods, and obtain 239Pu. So the question that must also be asked is can Iran be trusted far into the future to comply with inspectors, never to allow fissionable material to get into the hands of terrorists, etc.
The answer in my mind is “no”, so that makes the situation much more complicated in that I feel Iran cannot be trusted even with a “civilian” nuclear power program. Attempting to get the world community to not allow 238U enrichment or change it’s own fuel rods on it’s reactors would be poorly received by any country.
But that is what is truly necessary to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. A central repository of enriched uraniam given to countries to use for power, and a United Nations team or some other similar neutral entity used to replace used fuel rods. If this isn’t done, not only Iran, but many many countries in the world will have access to highly dangerous materials.

radwjw

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 8/28/09 at 5:57 pm

addendum: a couple of great headlines today:

“UAE stops ship loaded with weapons from North Korea bound for Iran”

and

“UN Atomic Energy Inspector states Iran not allowing inspectors to visit multiple sites in Iran suspected to be involved in uranium enrichment program as well as the reactor site at Nantez”

radwjw

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 8/28/09 at 6:25 pm

Walter: Your chemical knowledge far excceeds mine.  The problem lies beyond the making of the weapons grade material because if you want a nuclear bomb in the short term (Now) all you have to do is cobble a bunch of radioactive stuff together and explode it. A true nuke does far more damage.  The singular most problem is in reading “Intent” How big a threat now and later. Then the course of action. As for the addendum: Nothing new with the inspection teams findings and the UAE stopping the arms ship.  A pat on the back for the UAE inspectors.  First time they’ve shown balls. What happens to the ship and arms? They’ll send it back to N Korea.  UN sanctions, big laugh. Paper tiger,no backbone. All bluff and when called, back off on doing anything. All the N Korean government will do is say “Ah shit” we didn’t make the sale. We’ll try another route.
Same thing happened a few months ago with a US Navy ship. Good exercise in tracking ships.  Another computer kids game in the making?

Comment by sam corwin on 8/28/09 at 7:43 pm

PS: The book “The Secret War Against the Jews” is recommended reading for all.  It goes back well into the early 1930s, explains the USS ship Liberty and the Israeli side of the attack. After reading it you’ll get a better understanding of US thinking.  I think you can get it at Amazon books.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/28/09 at 7:49 pm

Addendum two: The main problem in dealing with Iran is the fact that it now has centrifuges. Nuclear non proliferation in the past has relied on only several countries having the capability for uranium enrichment via gas centrifuges. Other countries using peaceful nuclear reactors have bought already enriched 235U LGU from these countries. However, in the past years there has been rapid spread of centrifuge technology to first Pakistan, then other countries including Iran. This is called having the “full fuel cycle”, being able to go from mined Uranium, or “yellowcake”, to enriched uranium, either low or high grade. Whereas in the past inspectors had to only verify that reactor rods weren’t being improperly used, easily verifiable by satellite technology, the problem of centrifuges is much more difficult to monitor.
Any country can have inspected centrifuge sites and also build underground centrifuges specifically for the purpose of producing HGU. Thus the new term “breakout” phase is used. Breakout is when a country has enough LGU (about 900 kilos) such that it can rapidly divert, under cover, to another facility that LGU such that it can be rapidly enriched to HGU. This process is relatively rapid, hence the term “breakout”.
Iran is expected to have 1000 kilo’s of LGU now or by years end. It would take about 9 months to a year to produce 30 kilo’s of HGU in a typical series design centrifuge system, which is impossible to detect. That is why Israel and everyone else is worried. Because Iran has enough LGU to “breakout” (it could be doing so already) in a hidden underground facility, with time to have enough HGU to make a bomb measured in less than a year. Since Iran doesn’t allow inspection of the entire country, other LGU producing centrifuges could be assisting in producing enough LGU to be diverted to a clandestine HGU producing site.
Note: this problem is now global with the proliferation of centrifuges. Many options have been proposed, such as limiting the number of countries with “full cycle” fuel capabilities to a few which would then supply other countries with known amounts of HGU, etc. That discussion is too complicated to add to the already complicated discussion going on. It is just noteworthy because the entire Iranian problem is basically due to its having centrifuges.

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 8/28/09 at 7:56 pm

Sam: if Iran truly has close to 1000 kilo’s of low enrichment uranium then it won’t take long to enrich it further to 30 or 40 kilos of weapons grade highly enriched uranium, which like you said can easily be made into a “dirty bomb”. That much stuff could contaminate a large area for close to 30,000 years. Also, like I said intent can be inferred from action: why hide the enrichment under 70 feet of reinforced concrete, why stop inspections, and why stop any inspections at the site in Nantez? I mean if Iran was serious about not pursuing a weaponization program why all the secrecy??
That speaks volumes. Also, the fact that a ship from N. Korea was sized headed for Iran is not the salient point. What is important is that we know now for sure N. Korea has been shipping arms to Iran, and that most likely includes missile technology as well as how to make a bomb technology.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 8/29/09 at 12:08 am

Walter: They could have bought a bomb from Pakistan or N Korea.  They might use that as a hole card in the event a nuke attack.  Who is to say I’m right or wrong? All of this could be a smoke screen.
You say the entire problem is due to the idea of Iran having nukes.  The entire problem is talk about destroying Israel. The threat is real and diplomacy won’t work.  Iran is expansionist and Israel stands in its way.  Remember, Iran has a million man army. Were it not for the US in Iraq, they would have taken Iraq over and they may in the long term.  Then look how close they are on the ground to Israel, then Egypt and Saudi. The return of the Persian Empire.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/29/09 at 1:03 am

Sam/Walter: Fascinating points rising here, I’ve enjoyed the read, though a sobering subject matter.  There is clearly a transfer of material and technology, be it weapons, knowhow, between North Korea and Iran.  This has been going on for a long time, I remember a story in the media prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq regarding a consignment of scud missles burried below deck of a ship carry other cargo bound for Iran in the Persian Gulf.  I think what has come to light are just pointers, specks on a canvas that is a much larger picture.  I still hold to my theory that Iran and North Korea have shared Nuclear interests.  The bomb developed in North Korea using North Korean knowhow topped of with Iranian finance.  What sends shivers down my spine is the very thought that between them they have a working nuclear weapon, but lack the HGU in sufficient quantity to produce a production like of armaments, this is where the Iranian centrifuges come in.
Walter I couldn’t agree more, that why would you bury it 70ft below reinforced concrete if it were purely for civilian domestic use.  It doesn’t stack up right.
Also the order of the Russian S-300v Surface to Air Missile System which the Iranians want to install around these sites, which are currently ringed by older less effective air defense systems.  They certainly want to protect what they’re producing there, it is obviously of HIGH IMPORTANCE to the regime to protect and protect why?  All our pointers point to the same ominous conclusion.
Also, why would a country sitting atop of some of largest natural gas deposits and oil deposits want to invest so much money in a civil nuclear program?
Sam, I’ll get a hold of the book shortly.  I’m in need of something new to read and this is topical to our debate.  Sam, point is they could (as you say) have bought a ready made nuke from Pakistan or Korea, or already have one which went astray in the aftermath of the break up of the Soviet Union.  They could have back engineered it, worked out how to build their own and now just need the HGU and Plutonium in sufficient quantity.  North Korea is also conveniently working on the long range delivery vehicle for the said weapon.  There are many avenues to wander in thought down with this and I place high value on your thoughts on the matter.

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/29/09 at 9:19 am

Sorry if I got a little too technical; somehow got carried away it seems….

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 8/29/09 at 6:31 pm

Walt, no problem. get it out of your system. James,If Iran “HAS” access or has them in it’s country, what is to stop them from using it/them? Fear of retaliation.  You have ten, we have hundreds.  Were Iran to strike first, it too would have to be a total destruction of Israel but in the doing so, it would in itself be destroyed. The Russian missiles ringing the nuke sites.
Read up on the effectiveness of the French Maginot line.Impossible to penetrate France from Germany.  The Germans went around it. When the Israelis strike, they will surprise every military establishment at what they did. Again, like a fighter, you don’t telegraph your punches.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/29/09 at 7:41 pm

Walter: No problem, is was a fascinating read on the uranium cycle….please feel free to write what ever.  It was a pleasure to read.  Well put. 

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/29/09 at 8:21 pm

Yemen: Is Iran involved in that situation? Another piece to the puzzle or a distraction?  I don’t know the story or how it could impact Israel. Got more knowledge on this to impart?
Sam

Comment by sam corwin on 8/29/09 at 11:49 pm

Sam: Just found this one on Reuters.
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE57H5TK20090818
Leads you to wonder what else or who else Iran are backing and funneling money to?
Is this strategy aimed at regional hegemony or a the resurgence of a greater Persian Empire, reinstated and this time armed with nuclear weapons?

Comment by James Johnson on 8/30/09 at 10:45 am

James: Read the article. If you asked me if this is a resurgence, I really don’t know. It strongly smells of it under the guise of Islam. Yemen is no friend to Israel or Saudi. The US will enter Yemen to protect Saudi if need be for they are bed with each other. I looked up Yemen (CIA info on internet). The location on the Gulf of Aden and next to Saudi is important .  Across the Gulf lies Somalia. Is Iran pumping mopney and arms there too? The whole region is a tinder box and again, are they all pieces of the same puzzle? Persian empire.Hitler almost did it. Why not another madman?

Comment by sam corwin on 8/31/09 at 1:23 am

Sam: It seems like the zeitgeist of our time for that particular region and culture, an Islamic movement without a fixed and central point of control.  From what I know and have read there are multiple players who control differing factions and many alternate groups and organisations funding these factions.  Iran is certainly a major player as it has the finance.  Suppose what we could be experiencing is a solidification of the process in flux, it’s like a virus, it could continue on it’s current path a while longer and then be finite and within a few generations the Islamic terror groups will disappear, as nothing lasts forever.  But just like a virus it could be spreading and becoming more virulent.  I think that with recent Western intervention, while we a disrupting this culture and it’s organisation, we could be a bit like an antibiotic in that they become resistant and more aggressive to our idea of a solution.  What happens if this movement continues along its current path and with a new Persia at it’s heart armed with Nuclear weapons?  Will we see the appearance of a leader, like Hitler take the stage in Tehran?  Will the religious fanatics see this leader and interpret him as the 12th Imam or Mahdi?  Problem with Prophets and predictions is that the human mind is probably very good and producing this outcome due to a mystical belief.  I don’t know where it’s headed.

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/31/09 at 10:33 am

Fascinating read from the Congressional Research Service on North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy.  Published in May 2009 and located on the http://www.fas.org website.  It’s 26 pages long and details a link between the Iranian Nuclear program and North Korea’s.  Here’s the link:
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33590.pdf

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 8/31/09 at 12:15 pm

James: We live in historical times.Every day something new pops up. World intrigue has changed with the advent of modern day communications, electronic money transfers etc.In the past, it could take months to make a singular plan work but now within a day, the world can erupt. The Middle East is center stage. Fox news panel member Charles Kratheimer (I think he’s a brilliant man) said “Israel won’t let Iran get the bomb”.  (They may have some already.) Saudi needs to prod the other Sunni nations to stand up against Iran and join Israel in their determined effort to stave off Iranian expansion.  On the face of it, they can’t but behind closed doors, many intriques take place. Oh, his comment’s on Obama are far from favorable and he pointed out why.  He said “Who (Which Palestine) faction does Obama deal with when you have two factions.
I’ll read the NKorea report later and thanks for the info.

Comment by sam corwin on 8/31/09 at 7:50 pm

So James, we have another mistery. Sometime in the future, we’ll learn the truth about the hijacked ship that the Russian navy pursued.  Times magazine wrote an interesting article about it and to make the story more mysterious, Mossad was supposed to be involved and Shimon Peres went to Russia for a day to discuss presumeably the contents of the ship. You think we lay people know anything? Russia is a signatory to the Iran arms embargo etc.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/01/09 at 10:47 am

Sam,

That’s really interesting, I need to get a hold of Time Magazine and digest that, but there has been lots of interesting articles flying about the internet.  Our governments keep our media distracted conveniently with stories about flu and a financial crisis while running the background is a deadly game being played out that really everyone should be taking serious note of as the situation in the world at the moment is what is really going to shape each and everyone of our lives and futures in the next decade.  Yet as you say, us lay people supposedly lost in a barrage of soap opera’s and ‘light’ entertainment just meaninglessly pleasure ourselves with ‘air’....  I like to be aware of what is going on on our planet as much as I can and when I get time I read a lot of stuff and it’s not just about reading it, it’s about a model of thought and being able to put pieces together, because there’s a lot of information fly about out there.  The British Government has lied to our faces regarding a deal with Libya over Megrahi.  Just like there was nothing given out about the missing ship.  I do not know why the silence to the public at large, not like we need to keep it a secret to the Iranian’s, they knew what ship it was on and knew it never made port, so it’s not they won’t get to know about it and they are smart, they’ll know who’s behind it.  I think it’s our governments, they don’t want to alarm the people of what’s brewing out there.  But people need to be made aware, not saying it’ll stop it, but it might make a difference in one way or another.  Russia, secretive….  hmmm…. That’s a major news story, ‘Russia breaks Iran arms embargo!’ what was on the ship and what have they sold them since the seizure.  I remember when the news story first came about, officials boarding the ship after it was recovered were carrying giger counters.  I wonder why they were carrying giger counters?  What are they supplying the Iranians?  What deal has been done, have they purchased an amount of Highly Enriched Uranium, so they can make a bomb before their centrifuges give them enough material, are they trying to outwit Israel?  Mossad are bloody amazing….  The plot thickens.

James

Comment by James Johnson on 9/01/09 at 5:15 pm

Another point: When ever does the Russian Navy ever leave port in this manner, sending out numerous war ships to track a ship that had gone missing?  Just never happens.  All I suggest is that what ever was on that ship, the Russians did not want anybody else finding it as it was them that sold it to them?  Smells very fishy….

Comment by James Johnson on 9/01/09 at 5:23 pm

Sam: Not sure if this is the same article you came across:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1919342,00.html

Certainly more to it than a hijacking of $2 million dollars worth of timber, like the article reads, a disproportional amount of warships in combination with a nuclear submarine, that’s major and something they wanted to protect at all costs.
What ever was on board was removed either by the Russians, or Mossad removed it during the time it was missing and either took it away or let it sink.  Must have been something very serious.  All I know is that Russia cancelled its sale of S-300v missiles to Iran shortly before the ship went missing.  It was either those, or something far far worse on board.  Time will tell and I don’t just mean the magazine!

Comment by james Johnson on 9/01/09 at 5:40 pm

James: The games that governments play.  They say “You elected us and leave things to us”. You’re in good hands. Some day (Few months perhaps) we’ll know a few more details but they’ll be cobbled up and we’ll never know the real story. Governments lie to their people sometimes for good reason a la CIA. Government is meddling in affairs that should remain behind closed doors. Getting back to the ship, if Mossad were involved, they’re a pretty sharp organization.  They helped take out an arms shipment in Africa, remember? I believe they are very active in Iran for they need whatever information they can glean about nukes. Iran wanting to talk about nukes now?  They’re good talkers. Israel must keep it’s guard up.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/01/09 at 7:34 pm

Sam: I remember the arms shipment in Africa.  They’re certainly an ‘on the ball’ organisation. They obviously have agents working in Iran and Russia, they had information tip offs on arms orders and what was on that ship.  The Russian Navy hasn’t been scrambled like that in years, for $2 million dollars worth of wood.  An idiot would immediately know that it was far more than that.  What about the two Antonov transport aircraft which were dispatched alongside the warships and sub, I remember the pirates and crew being escorted off of the plain in Moscow, a big plane, drinks a lot of fuel, way too big to bring back a few pirates.  Whatever happened to the illegal items on that ship, am sure that Mossad boarded, sabotaged or removed the payload.  I remember around the time the ship went missing the Israeli Navy sent ships through the Suez Canal for the first time in Years on some exercise.  I wonder if they went around the horn of Africa and then Rendezvoused with the Artcic Sea?  HHhhmmmmm….  Obviously the so called pirates on board were not Mossad agents, but had been manipulated into a deal to take the ship and take it to a specified location on behalf of Mossad and unwittingly.  Very smart operation.  Suppose if the Israelis got a hold of the consignment and if they were S-300v missiles, they’re now taking them to bits and working out countermeasures, just incase the Iranians do have some already in place.  Plot certainly thickens…  Shimon Peres flies to Moscow after ship reported missing, only days after.  Why the visit to Moscow - very unusual?

Comment by James Johnson on 9/02/09 at 11:55 am

James: Wait for a book to come out about this incident and then a movie.  It’s too intriquing a situation.  if there were missiles, if there were anything on this order, if they were removed by Mossad: What happens to new ordinance is that a host country (Israel) dissects it.  Like an autopsy, hovering there are the Americans, Brits. Similar incident was the US Navy plane which the Chinese never returned or the Navy ship that the N Koreans dissected etc. I would say that the Russians lost much but the iranians lost a lot more. Too much Russian military for a simple ship.  I can’t wait for the book.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/02/09 at 7:49 pm

Sam: I’m interested to hear what happens to the crew and the so called ‘pirates’ what shall become of them and will we get to hear their story, as they’re clearly the ones a know a lot more than we.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/03/09 at 7:24 am

What story we’ll get will be a fairy tale.  The “Pirates” will be sent off to Siberia and if they ever talk, it will be what the government dictates. If the Mossad was involved, word will eventually leak out. Getting back to Iran, I saw where when they finally got the ministers picked, the Defense chief got a rousing applause and the “Death to Israel” chant.Argentina wants to try him for the bombing of a jewish establishment. So much for change in position

Comment by sam corwin on 9/03/09 at 10:27 am

Well, there’s not a lot more I feel I can add to this at present.  I’ll be dipping back into this post from time to time as the next number of months roll by.  Time will tell what the outcome shall be with all of this, the situation appears a little grim.  I’ll be posting again later as things unfold.  Until then, it’s been good sharing thoughts with you all.
Best, James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/05/09 at 5:58 am

Hi James: I think we’ll be seeing each other before October on here.  This is the calm before the storm.
Sam

Comment by sam corwin on 9/05/09 at 9:21 am

Sam: I think you’re right!!!

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/05/09 at 1:15 pm

Dont get lost, history changes on a daily basis. I may not be always right, but I’m never wrong_ Confucious Cohen

Comment by sam corwin on 9/05/09 at 7:48 pm

They won’t bend nor give an inch.
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/09/07/iran.nuclear.dialogue/index.html

Comment by James Johnson on 9/07/09 at 7:39 am

I didn’t read the article fully. Didn’t need to.  Why should they bend? Today France and Israel say that IAEA isn’t fully open on Iran. Who if not Israel will syop Iran?  Noone. As I said before, history is an ongoing thing with every day another phase of it.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/07/09 at 7:32 pm

Sam:  Interesting developments this week, if you’ve heard?

Read these articles:
Juniper Cobra Missile Defense Exercise, joint with IDF/US Command.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1251804542241&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

and

Netanyahu mystery trip…....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gJpz6y4cWDlpZBFiyn1v8qQbY4HwD9AKO62G0

HHhmmmm….

The missing warship with supposed anti-aircraft missiles from Russia aboard.
Netanyahu goes AWOL this week and nobody really knows where he’s gone, the above article suggests that he’s gone to Russia to discuss something of gravity and importance and a possible attack on Iran.

Then the next article, the Juniper Cobra Missle Defense Exercise, pulling in US Aegis Warships, which specialise in Anti-Ballistic Missile Warfare.  This exercise is due to commence in a few weeks time.

Doesn’t take much to work out that maybe these three events have enormous significance!?

There happens to be a large US/IDF exercise in place and large amounts of US Anti-Missile equipment in place.  In place as the Israeli’s launch their attack on Iran….....I wonder????

An age old tactic, stage and exercise, then send it into a real offensive or defensive mission in this case.

What’s your thoughts or am I reading into things too much?

Smells fishy?

Silent moves are being plays in this very dangerous chess game.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/11/09 at 10:37 am

Ha James, you see history changing.  I haven’t read the articles but will give you a short “Fast take.”
Sabre rattling.  The UN going to meet in a few weeks. Iran will call all bluffs.  On the other hand, the “Test exercise” might be the precursor of THE retaliatory strike by Iran. My opinion on this is that the first move should be a telling one with no retaliatory strike. You retaliate and you have no country. Period. Maybe Bibbie told the Russian to get his people out of harms way. To sum it all up, I dunno.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/11/09 at 7:42 pm

Further: The Iranian situation is something new in world annuls with one country threatening to destroy another and gathering the capability to do so.  Whatever action that has taken place before won’t work in stopping Iran. A new approach is needed. A raid will only cause retaliation with the whole world screaming and sitting on their asses.  Israel’s action must be retaliation free, which means reigning in Lebanon and Gaza.  I would do this:  I would tell the Iranians that you are going to nuke one city and evacuate the people in three days or city will be nuked.
The way to stop this action is to open all facilities to inspection within two weeks. Stop the centrifuges.
Because this is a threat, Iran will call Israel on it. Then Israel must carry out the threat.  Horrible yes? Effective? Yes. Israel condemned? Yes. Israel and the Middle East safer? Yes.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/11/09 at 11:53 pm

Sam:  Not sure what will happen in the coming weeks with all of this, but with all the diplomatic posturing and the missing ship and the military exercise and the covert Israeli Governmental missions to Russia it seems like something dark is brewing.
I think that Israel is ready to strike - any time soon.  Could be a matter of weeks.
The world shall wake up to breakfast news of the event. 

It nuclear threat upon an Iranian city, that is a bold move.  A game of ultimate brinkmanship, of course if this measure were indeed carried out, you can imagine the situation.  I think that most of the people would remain in the city, our of defiance, lack of communication, or kept in place by Iranian security services.

It would be the ultimate show of how serious Israel was as regards to carrying out its plans.  Am sure the repercussions of such actions on the world stage and on public opinion would turn against Israel’s favour.  This is an extreme move, but I get your point.  Like holding a 3.57 magnum to the head of your enemy and saying back off, in theory 99.9999% the enemy would do as you say.  I think the Iranian regime does not abide by our Western sense of values and logic.  I have a hunch they’d call their bluff.

Big trouble soon for sure.  Hope Obama is as good at action as he is at delivering his speeches. 

James

Comment by James Johnson on 9/14/09 at 5:59 am

James:  I read today that Russia and China won’t support
greater UN sanctions against Iran.  They have given up the advantage of not knowing what to expect from the UN and Iran now has the advantage of knowing the UN wont stop their nuclear pursuit.  Two weeks before the meeting, you now know the outcome of the meeting. Nothing new, talk.
What Israel now does is all conjecture.  Will they stand down? No. If not, then what? Air Force pounding Iranian sites?  Nope. They are going to pull a small Hiroshima with the threat that Teheran is next. And the warning that if Lebanon or Gaza act up to retaliate, woe be to Iranians.  That’s my call. No bluffs. World shock and condemnation? Yes.  The Israeli’s will say “Sorry” we had no other recourse.  World hatred. Nothing new. It’s just less vocal now. Vanessa and Jane Fonda will spring up again leading the charge against the jews.  Just came to me.  The holidays are upon us. After Yom Kipper.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/14/09 at 8:49 am

Sam: Regarding Russian and China - I figured as much.  It’s down to Israel to pull a tough and shocking stunt.  Pretty much all avenues point in that direction.  The Jewish state is cornered into making the only decision it can make.

I doubt the Israeli’s shall stand down, not at all.  I very much doubt this, in their eyes, they have not choice, they’ll never accept a nuclear armed Iran. 

I think they’ll do anything once forced into a military/strategic cul-de-sac regarding this.

Yom Kippur is timely this year.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/14/09 at 2:31 pm

James: The holidays.  1973 was called the Yom Kipper war. The attack caught Israel off guard. Who say’s that Iran won’t attack Israel when most of the country is “Standing down?” Why would they attack Israel?  Because Israel has threatened them. Turnabout is fair play. I’d say there will be earth shattering news within a month. I’ll pick a day out of the hat and say October 11th.  Why then? I was drafted into the army then in 1944, so it’s a good date.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/14/09 at 7:44 pm

Sam: I caught a news article on youtube.com about all of this and some experts are warning that Israel may be considering a nuclear strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities.  Just speculation, here’s the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHDTpZ1d6aQ  of course, all these words could merely be psychological warfare aimed at unsettling the Iranian people, an attempt at forcing a change within the country internally as a last resort.  Earth shattering news within one month?  I’ll go for October 8th.  The clock is ticking.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/15/09 at 9:32 am

James: I don’t see a nuke strike on a nuke facility. Too many facilities.  The aim of any strike must be NO retaliation in any form.  One nuke on one site wont accomplish this.  We are just bystanders and can only wring our hands and feel sorry for what will happen. It may just be the beginning of the end.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/15/09 at 11:15 am

Sam: The end for whom, for Iran?  For Israel?  Or do you mean WWIII?  It’s certainly an extremely dangerous situation, the world hasn’t been faced with a situation quite like this ever I don’t think.  We can but only hope for a quick and speedy conclusion, one which doesn’t cost too many people their lives.  I follow the news and read what I can on a multitude of different topics, but it’s this story unfolding, this situation which I’ve found interesting and yet rather sobering.  I think that a lot of the populous of the world, including the West are asleep and do not see this one coming.  It’s gonna hit everyone right out of the blue.  I just wonder what China and Russia are going to do if the situation does get even uglier after a strike by Israel.  It’s certainly a situation to watch closely.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/15/09 at 11:26 am

There is a prophecy I guess in the bible or Nostradamus
about the Middle East and a Bear. There never has been a situation of this magnitude ever.  Can you imagine inflaming the entire Muslim world?  There’s Muslim unrest in many countries now (Europe and that includes Russia)Southeast Asia, Africa and elsewhere.  Fox news spent a lot of time on Sen Kennedy’s death.  I wonder how many weeks they’ll be on the Israeli’s action. Sit back and watch history unfold.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/15/09 at 11:40 am

Sam: I am familiar with these prophecies. There is a lot of dangerous talk, whether there is anything in a prophecy other than sheer coincidence or the very act of looking for it and almost willing it to happen brings it about.  I feel a collective consciousness can collude to bring these forces about.  I read recently that the followers of Moqtada al-Sadr believe that the US invaded Iraq to prevent the return of their sect’s messiah like figure, the Mahdi or 12th Imam.  Iran’s Ahmedinejad also believes this too.  An irrational, delusional messianic cult with Nuclear Weapons, very dangerous people to have a hold of this frightful technology.

There seems to be a social amnesia with what is going on, our government in the U.K is politically correct to extreme and what their think tanks work out, they cannot tell the public for fear of upsetting the several million strong muslim community which reside here.  You talk to people about the uprising, the islamic extremists and generally people only remember 9/11.  When you site down and think it all through, you realise that this has been a war which is decades old and only intensified with the bombings of the U.S Embassy building in East Africa in the late 1990’s culminating in 9/11, then a plethora of diabolical suicide bombings from the London Underground, Madrid, Bali, Egypt, The School at Beslan in North Ossetia, countless other suicide bombings, attempted hijackings and the Mumbai massacre of November last year.  The list is larger than this.  Lots of plots have been foiled and surely many plots are in the making.  What our intelligence services are not telling us is probably the greater picture too. 

There’s a big show down coming, am sure of that.  It’s going to be catastrophic.

I read a story recently about a traffic warden in the U.K who was given his wardens id card.  The government had issued to all traffic wardens these extra cards which gave them special powers to arrest people, even to break an entry into property etc.  Certainly not a traffic wardens job description.  The particular warden questioned the purpose of these cards and wasn’t given an answer other than to just put it somewhere safe and forget about it.  Some months later he got talking to some government committee member who was involved in this legislation and asked about these extra cards, not really expecting the answer he was given.  The committee member just said that there is a war coming soon and the police and other services are going to be stretched to breaking point managing any social unrest relating to world events, so this is a procedure which has been put into effect for when this happens and that there were secret governmental committees carefully crafting contingency plans for this event which is coming.  Take it or leave it, maybe a load of rubbish.  But does the CIA/MI6/Mossad know something that we don’t?

I read about Yemen the other day and now today Al Qaeda leader killed in Somalia by U.S Special Forces.  It is daily news now, it’s like we’re all just accepting it.

Who knows - I’m just going to wait and see.  Let’s hope it’s not going to be as bad as the prophets suggest.

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/15/09 at 2:36 pm

James: Had to break away last night (Bedtime) but something you said struck me. WW111. We will see this in a different form than that imagined.  No mass armies etc but a conflagration of almost the entire world starting with a second “Krystalnacht” at the outset. Worldwide terrorism breaking out. The authorities in all countries must be aware of the possibility and probability of this happening. The taking out of Al Queda leaders and leaders of all radical clerics etc is a necessity. It’s not a new tactic.  I believe it was in Malasia that during a rally against the government, British snipers took out the people with the bull horns for it’s the most effective way to stop radicalism.  Eliminate the leaders and you have the sheep left behind. Human rights people are misguided.  With all of this, will Israel strike? Yes. It’s us against them and I’d rather we prevail.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/15/09 at 7:46 pm

Sam: I’m trying to look on the bright side of life with all of this, but you can’t trick yourself into a fairy tale when there are dark snakes making patterns in the sand.
WWIII will more than likely be a war fought generally conventionally between armies of major powers and between radical groups.  I think it’ll be quite fractured and shall be fought on many many multiple fronts from terror acts, guerilla warfare to conventional scraps, high intensity battles over short periods between major powers.  I often wonder what stirring impact the global financial melt down is having upon this as there is a great change in sway.  It it always fact that financial wars later become shooting wars?  or have we evolved past this mode or system of doing things?  We’ve digressed slightly from the main topic, but it’s a healthy thought process to ponder all of this.  I read today of the growing alliance between Venezuela and Iran and Russia.  Quite a triangle there.  Iran offering to help Venezuela with Nuclear technology in exchange for gasoline.  Sanction busting gasoline.  The Russians are supplying these tin pot dictators with some of the most advanced weaponry ever devised.  The U.S must be feeling edgy with another Cuba sitting on the Northern Shores of Latin America and next to other allies like Columbia etc.  There’s possible a flash point there.  I hope not, but I ponder the course of events after Israel attacks Iran.  Will this be the so called ‘tipping point’?

James

Comment by James Johnson on 9/16/09 at 5:07 am

Sam: I just notice one point you made regarding the human rights people being misguided.  I couldn’t agree more with you here.  I saw United 93 the other night, about the flight which fortunately didn’t make it to Capitol Hill on 9/11 but sadly and grotesquely smashed into a field short of its target.  With barbarians of this order, you cannot excise human rights, they value not even their own lives, let alone the lives of others and especially of the infidel.  Common sense needs to prevail.  I am not an advocate of war or killing, but when someone can sit in the departure lounge with you in smart business attire and listen to your farewell calls prior to boarding the plane, then in an instant without mercy nor humanity slay you and thousands of others - then this is when we all have to (for the sake of our own survival) throw away the namby-pamby, lefty and politically correct rule book and see clearly that these guys are trying to kill us.  Time to really wake up.
I still think that there is a sense of amnesia about the whole thing, we’re all pursuing careers, cars, houses, things of ephemeral and short lived importance, luxuries, while our executioners are playing a waiting game while the pigs get fat.
Wake up time is coming and I know without a doubt that we shall prevail.

James

Comment by James Johnson on 9/16/09 at 5:17 am

James: No WW111 in the general sense.  World conflagration is more like it.  Human Rights activists are misguided people who believe that you can make friends with wild animals.  There’s a point where one rounds the corner and become feral and that’s when he wants to kill anything so he can get to his heaven.  The bleeding hearts (Obama and gang) have fallen into this category (Closing Guantanamo, delve into the CIA etc. You spoke earlier of the incident in Somalia where the Special Forces took out an Al Queda leader.  Were it up to the Human Rights people, such action would never take place. South America is and for decades has been smouldering and ready to erupt. Obama will not get his settlement freeze.  He needs wise up and act like a leader and not a wimp. Pressuring the Israelis is a big mistake.  America has more to lose than gain by the pressure.  Who is going to help the “Poor” arab vountries against Iran,America? Ha, that’s a laugh.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/16/09 at 6:52 am

Sam: To preserve our civilization and civil liberties and way of life, we have to have hard measures in place, when dealing with these animals.  In fact it is an insult to the animal kingdom to refer to them as animals.  Animals in the animal kingdom do have a sort of code of conduct and kill when they need to eat.  Maybe these problems are founded in our planet becoming over populated, it’s like a natural mechanism to devour our own, but it is working through the guise of religion and extremism?  The human rights people in this instance are only setting themselves and us up for having our throats cut and our heads torn off.  The Obama administration does appear to be forcing Israel to the point of war with Iran, through it’s inaction or tough stance on the situation.  Either this is because they’re soft and lack the spirit to face up to it or they rather the Israelis fire the first shot, so it’s not an American initiated conflict.  All about appearances?
If we fail in this war on terror, then the world shall be thrown back into the dark ages and all the hard one freedoms that we’ve enjoyed for the past hundred years shall be a blip on the surface of history.  I fear that this could be the case of the lesser tribe over powering the more civilised and technically advanced tribe, mainly because we’ve grown soft, we care, we engage in dialogue with psychopathic murderers who want nothing more than to shake our hand, smile with their mouths, while their eyes are cold and say, “I’m going to slit your throat, and of your family and your brothers!”  We really need to act hard and fast.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/16/09 at 8:29 am

Sam: Is the only way to deal with extremism to become extreme, extremism meets extremism with extreme measures, is this the only answer?

Comment by James Johnson on 9/16/09 at 8:33 am

America: All about appearances? Yes. The Peace Now in Israel is another Civil rights group that are feeding the animals. The answer to extremism, is yes. Extreme measures or “Measured extreme measures” are required. You don’t have to kill a lot of people if the ringleaders suddenly disappear No TV coverage. Just Pouff, gone.  That makes the world a safer place.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/16/09 at 7:31 pm

What a fabulous torrent of comments on a superb essay!  I’m going back for a re-read.  I came looking for some basic info on what looks like an impending conflagration and got that and so much more.  Thank you all for insightful, penetrating and intriguing analysis of a frightening (and likely) prospect: a preemptive Israeli strike on Iranian facilities.

My own views hardly matter but I offer them here. The prospect of shiite Iranian hostility pressing Israel’s Arab neighbors into its arms in an alliance of necessity seems a most delicious possibility.  I’d be a NotYet-er in hopes of seeing this alliance develop but for one thing: Shiite Twelver religious zeal drives Iran’s leaders. 

A horrible blood bath of epic proportions calls forth the Twelfth Mahdi in Shiite Twelver eschatology.  Iranian leaders seek to precipitate just such a blood bath.  Somewhere I remember Iranian president A. McDinijad reflecting on the likely Israeli response to an Iranian nuclear strike.  He dispassionately considered the 5 million Iranian casualties of a likely Israeli nuclear counter-strike.  He willingly offered them up if only the 12th Mahdi would appear out of the well to force the world’s submission to Islam.  Chilling. 

Motivations like this give Israel little wiggle room.

(Personal aside: for what it’s worth, my study of Zeke 38/9 indicates that Israel’s likely preemptive strike against Iran has NOTHING to do with Russia (?) and Iran et al invading Israel per Ezekiel.  Israel’s prolonged peace with its neighbors, a well-developed commercial ascendency for the region and an accumulation of immense national wealth constitute the necessary preconditions to Zeke 38’s invasion of Israel.  The motive for the invaders then is PLUNDER, not manifestations of Islamic eschatology.)

Comment by Lenny Hoy on 9/16/09 at 10:01 pm

Lenny: You are very well read.  I don’t know what the real reason is but I rule out Plunder.  Expansionism is definitely fair to say.I don’t know about the 12th Mahdi but if I were one of the 5 million to be sacrificed, I’d try to bring about the change in government to avoid this. Ach has been quite vocal in his speeches about destroying Israel and this will bring him down, either by fire or the wrath of the remaining Iranians.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/17/09 at 12:40 am

James, sometime back I think you wrote of America’s coming to Israel’s defense and I said “Don’t depend upon it”.  9-17 US Dumps missile defense project thereby screwing Poland and Czech Republic. On the face of it, appeasing Russia. Bad move? Not good for politics. The whole deal was all political plus helping the arms industry. Bottom line, Israel can count on US support when it has just about exhausted its military might.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/18/09 at 2:14 am

Sam: I noted the dumping of the missile defense project yesterday.  There’s certainly a lot of posturing going on at the moment, movements of immense gravity too.  The Pentagon is now talking about a ship based system.  With advancements throughout the development of the shield, I bet they’re worked out that it’s better deployed on ships or ocean platforms, it’s probably going to be a better working system and they may have been planning to dump the ground based systems in Eastern Europe anyway, but they bide their time for the right moment to do so and Russia thinks it’s made a gain.  There is a lot going on at the moment from what media has been leaking out, ever since the Arctic Sea went missing, Netanyahu’s secret visit to Russia and now the missile defense shield being apparently dumped to win over the Russians.  We obviously need the Russians on our side, just before something big happens in the Middle East.
Something big is looming, the missile defense shield being abandoned for any deal up until this past week.  So what’s changed?  I only hope that the Obama administration hasn’t sold us out, leaving Russia and Iran in the winning position regarding the missile defense shield?  Things are rapidly changing at the moment, the are bold and striking moves.

James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/18/09 at 5:44 am

James: Smoke and mirrors. Politics etc. The missile shield as a defense system stinks.  All you need is one missile to get through and the missile systems aren’t 100 percent acurate. What’s up is the UN.  Obama is frantic with not getting his way in Israel so he can look big at the UN. There’s so much intrigue going on that noone knows what the real reasons are.  There will be no big changes in the Middle East, nothing with Iran and Obama slinking away as a failed leader who couldn’t deliver.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/18/09 at 9:05 am

Sam: It does stink, it wouldn’t stop a boat with a nuclear device on it sailing up the Thames, Hudson River into the Port of Haifa would it?  Pretty much a red herring I say.  I always thought that the Anti-Missile Shield was really about Russian Missile or Chinese Missiles, but not about Rogue States, that was the cover story.  Rogue states are going to go in the less conventional way I think, especially the Iranians if they were to go for a hypothetical attack on US and her allies.  It’d be an eleborate car bomb that’d take out most of downtown Manhattan or the City of London.
That’s it.  Not a missile.  Why bother lobbing a missile from your home soil, where it’d be traceable, when you can give it to a terrorist network or secret service and let them do it.  Be a suicide mission from hell.

There’s a lot going on at the moment for sure, very strange times.
Obama needs to toughen up his stance, okay going after health care reform, but greater things are at stake which are going to make that look like a picnic.

Very strange how it’s just been cut, just like that.  No real answers, no clear reason, that’s it, just cancel one of the biggest most talked about defense contracts out of the blue. 

Fishy.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/18/09 at 12:31 pm

James: Best answer is given by Gates whose response is that the system had flaws. It would be overwhelmed by many missiles etc.That’s the military version. The political one was probably a Quid Pro Quo. Don’t piss in my yard and I won’t reciprocate. History comes about daily. IAEA withholds info, Achma and no holocaust (Again), No Israel Hamas/Hezbollah, Geo Mitchell fails, Hillary says harsh words and the UN gets on Israel to reveal it’s nukes.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/18/09 at 7:43 pm

Sam:  I hear today that NATO has proposed to join with Russia in missile defense, a process of linking shields.  This is a mile stone!  I wonder if this plan shall indeed go ahead?  What’s the catch?  Is Obama realising that they need Russia on side to tackle Iran or are the worried that a trade war with China could turn into a shooting war in years to come, thus needing Russia on side, in reality making the Iranian problem a minor irritant.  Certainly really large strategic shifts taking place here.
Lots to read and speculate over.  It’s been one hell of a summer….

Comment by James Johnson on 9/19/09 at 5:57 pm

James: I’m not a maven or NATO but I see Russia joining NATO as a step forward, only don’t be so sharing of military secrets. The big story is the meeting next Tuesday.  The feelgood meeting where Obama will be made to be the Hero of the day by bringing the Middle East closer to peace (Palestine) but it’s only a facade. The underlying enemy of the Western world (And Israel has long known this) is the birthrate of the Muslims.  By vast numbers they will take over the Western countries in 20 years or so. Israel’s threat comes not with war but with peace. The arab voters will take over the country by ballot as they will the Western countries.  Belgium is experiencing the threat now. This my friend is a world dilemna. Not the atom bomb.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/19/09 at 7:41 pm

Sam: I was talking to friends over a year ago about exactly what you’re saying here.  The very nature of our democratic system is our undoing and ultimate demise as a race/nation.  Of course the pc-left would shoot me for saying that, suggesting that it’s Nazi or reminiscent of Hitler’s ideology, but you can’t escape common sense and what is ultimately fact and the truth.  You’re not aloud to mention the truth - politically speaking.  That too is out undoing.  I need to rest (Sleep) shall have a look on here tomorrow.  James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/19/09 at 7:53 pm

I think that common sense finally came to US military thinking. No missile shield in the world would have been able to stop a massive Russian missile attack. Thousands of multiple independently targetable ICBM’s coming from Russian land based ICBM’s, it’s satellite states, submarines constantly moving in position, plus air launched vehicles. Star Wars was the dream of a pre-Alzheimer dreamer that never stood a chance of being successful. With over 5,000 nuclear weapons raining down on Europe coming from all directions how could any sane person logically think every one could be stopped?!!
  In any case reality seems to finally come of age. The main threat to the free world is rogue nations with nuclear capabilities, i.e. Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, etc. Given their limited nuclear strike capability a missile shield actually is viable, but it must be mobile, redundant, and have the cooperation of the great Russian bear to function. All of these rogue nations have at most 5 or 20 viable weapons; much different from 5,000+, and they do not have submarine launched, air launched, multiple re-entry vehicles, nor cruise missile systems. The threat is land based only, easily picked up in real time by satellite technology with the missiles capable of being traced from source with multiple opportunities to down them, as long as their air time aloft is long enough. The new shield is a much better one for Europe than the old one.
  Israel unfortunately is in the geographical position of being in range of medium range missiles, thus having a very short time frame to act, leading to reduced intercept options, reduced redundancy, etc. No missile shield would be successful in an Iranian attack on Israel. The geographical time frame is too short. The only viable option for Israel is really to have no offensive nuclear states in the Middle East. The old shield paradigm would not have protected them and neither will the new one.
  It all comes back full circle to not allowing Iran to have offensive nuclear capability. There is no reason for Iran to have centrifuges; they can obtain low enrichment uranium from any number of states having full cycle capabilities if they want their “nuclear energy”. Time is running out I fear; if by the end of this year there is no significant progress in diplomacy I believe Israel will have no option but the military option, and in the face of self preservation I believe it is a no brainer. Israel will not allow Iran nuclear capability and with good reason. It really seems like I’m watching a slow motion military strike that is inevitable.
  It is already September, and unfortunately military action is the only option open to Israel, so expect a strike on Iran’s nuclear assets in the months ahead. What happens next is crucial to the very survival of the Israeli state. It would be a fairly safe prediction that Iran will not take this lying down, and will mobilize it’s one million plus army and attempt to invade Israel. What will the US and it’s allies do? What will Russia do? What will the other Arab states in the Middle East do?
  I have my own thoughts on these questions but am interested in what our group thinks. We do have to start thinking along these lines as the above scenario now appears inevitable. Unfortunately.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/19/09 at 10:26 pm

Walter: I agree with you. I’ll repeat myself.  Israel must strike Iran in such a fashion that Iran or it’s cronies will not retaliate. Israel must strike such a telling blow to Iran that fear of a second and final strike will befall them.  I believe that Israel must drop a nuke on Iran.  I don’t know the geography but someplace with a minimum loss of life but such a terror factor that there will be retaliation.  Israel cannot stand a retaliatiatory strike.  What will the rest of the world say? For shame by the Western countries and blood wanted by the arabs. Bark,  but no bite.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/20/09 at 12:14 am

addenda: Make that no retaliation.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/20/09 at 12:17 am

Sam/Walter: Good day to you both.  Israel is faced with a harsh reality, when/if they strike Iran it has to be swift and with such power that it’s a knock out blow, one which the country has to think very carefully about retaliating too.  My only concern is the suicidal tendency of this regime.  Onto the ABM shield, if we’re worried about rogue states with the bomb strapped to missiles, then yes, as it’d be only a numerous exchange, instead of the 5000+ from Russia/former USSR, it would be feasible.  But as I stated before, the multi-billion dollar system co-funded by NATO/Russia would be useless in the face of a bomb driven/sailed into a major city.  James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/20/09 at 10:51 am

James: You are quite right. The nuclear/bioterror/Chemical attack will most likely come in the form of a ship container or similar “low tech” device. All one has to do is load up one of those with high grade uranium, surround it with enough C4, and bye-bye New York harbor for 20,000 years…........

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/20/09 at 3:44 pm

I guess we are all in agreement as to the potential threat to Israel and probably to the West. Military leaders learn from past wars, attacks etc but we are in a different situation now in that the military can be outmanouvered by terrorist groups. Different strategies are outdating the military mind.  Now to combat a terroist, you need to think and act like one. This means
being brutal where need be and discard the Geneva Convention rules. The significant gains against terrorists are being made by small hit groups which seek to take out leaders. To stay in the topic, Russia say’s that in their talk with Shimon Peres, they were told that Israel would not stike Iran.  And the real answer to that is “So, I lied.”

Comment by sam corwin on 9/20/09 at 7:36 pm

Sam/Walter:  Any middle eastern power would not nor could not withstand a conventional nation state -vs- nation state war with the West.  This is military fact.  I’ve often speculated that nation states, or a nation state is behind the islamic terror groups, helping out with funding and materials and knowhow, but through a complex web of money laundering.  Because these countries cannot fight the West or Israel in the traditional sense, as we have won wars for centuries, they could have found another model and this being guerilla warfare and terrorism.  I remember reading that Bin Laden’s ultimate goal was to bring down the Western Capitalist System and thus bankrupt them, mired in costly wars for decades and then driving Western influence from the Middle East for good, then the establishment of a Muslim Superstate or Theocracy.  Call it coincidence, but the current banking crisis and being mired in wars for eight years now, I wonder how close he is to realisation of his plan.  Speculation is that the US Dollar shall fall in the next two years as a result of the recent turmoil.  What shall happen then?
Iran definitely needs to be stopped, Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons need to be contained from being hijacked by Islamist rebels too.  The minds that planned and staged 9/11 shall collude once again to drive or sail nuclear devices into several US or Western capitals and detonate them.  The after affects of such an attack, one can only wonder where we’re all heading from that point onward.
While maintaining our conventional and nuclear war fighting capabilities, we need SAS/Mossad/U.S Navy Seal units trained up and lots of them in small groups with the ultimate aim of tracking down these animals and removing each and everyone of them from the face of this planet.  We certainly have the resources.  May be this is already in effect and covertly in operation out of the public gaze.  I say, get rid of them all.  I have no sympathy for people who hijack planes and kill innocent people for their twisted belief or ideology.  Iran cannot get a hold of nukes.
James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/21/09 at 6:07 am

James: we are lucky that the Western Nations are aware of the potential threat to the region and the entire world. There are small groups of many countries working clandestinely.  These are primarily military hit squads which are silent.  You never see/hear or read about them but they are there, believe me.  I talk to former Navy Seals.  They pass through here in civilian clothes but they are always on the move.  The safety of the world really lies in these men and their work.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/21/09 at 7:36 am

Sam: The messages in the media are mixed, Russia saying the Israelis won’t attack Iran, saying Netanyahu gave Russia’s Medvedev firm assurance of this, then Israel’s army chief says, “All options on the table”  Mixed signals, must be aimed at creating uncertainty, an imminent attack on the horizon and they want the Iranians to not know when, how, or even if it’s coming.  Creating doubt in the mind of your foe.  The smoke screen is up, it’s as if the stage is being set for a knock out blow in the dark.  This is how I’m interpreting the current setting.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/22/09 at 5:17 am

James: Keep the enemy guessing is a pretty good tactic whether by intent or by accident. The orginal problem exists regardless of who says what. Talking or diplomacy wont work so square one says” No nukes in Iranian hands”. I guess in a few hours the big meeting in NY will take place. Big expectations? No.  If there are (Such as stopping settlements etc) smokescreen.  Never happen.Hamas against the meeting, so effectively you have a North Palestine and a South Palestine.  Might as well split the country in two.  They have done so already.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/22/09 at 6:30 am

Sam:  I am interested to hear what Ahmadinejad has to say when he gives his speech in front of the UN on Wednesday.  I’ve heard some rhetoric about ‘cutting off the hands’ of any would be attacker and again his reassertion of the Jewish holocaust myth.  Statements like that from a head of state sort of bounce off, it adds an air of unreality to you perception of the nation of Iran.  I think that most people are outraged by what he suggests but at the same time it’s sort of such a strange assertion that you ignore it.  I often wonder what he really thinks, is he just trying to goad Israel into anger and then one day an action.  It’s almost surreal. 
We’ll find out over the next week.  Octorber 1st meeting shall be interesting too.
James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/22/09 at 10:18 am

James: If you or I went out in the street and said what Achma says, people would avoid the madman. Hitler was a madman and noone listened. The problem with both is that the both are/were leaders of powerful countries with millions of people that would do their bidding.  Destruction of Israel, destruction of the jews. Same, same.  The meetings are all political crap and meaningless. UN, toothless,if Israel feels cornered and it looks increasingly so, there’s nothing more ferocious than a cornered rat. Time marches on and we’ll see what happens.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/22/09 at 12:30 pm

Sam: That’s worrying situation.  Because his surreal bellicose statements seem so outlandish and the words of a madman, he’s almost immediately overlooked.  You hear him talk and you grumble, then feel perplexed, frustrated, it’s almost laughable but when you sit yourself down and think that he’s the head of state of a 70million strong country with a large army and soon to have nuclear weapons. They’re also one of the bigger state funders of terrorism on Earth too.  I think there is like an amnesia to him, he’s one of those characters, which kind of wash over people, like he’s a wearer of a mask.  You just think he’s an idiot, like Hitler was referred to as a ‘funny little man’ These Demons crop up every once in a while and they seem to just get away with it, the world laughs, gets confused and just turns the other cheek, until the guy and his minions have a knife at your throat.
I’ve seen Ahmadinejad interviewed on TV quite a number of years ago and he smile, a false smile, it was as if her were mocking the American chap who was interviewing him and the whole of the country who were watching, saying that he loves the American people, but I sensed behind the false smile and the steely eyes was a man who knows exactly what he’s doing.  This was before all of these statements came to light and I really knew much about him, but I didn’t get a good feeling.  I think these things can be read cross culturally, you can spot a straight talking good person, no matter what race nor creed.  I sense in this man danger.
Time marches on indeed.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/22/09 at 3:51 pm

Sam: You may have seen these, just thought I’d post them up for you to take a look at.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykd-syzZ4ZY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_veD-nosxso&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIEH8tDtcyo

Comment by james Johnson on 9/22/09 at 4:26 pm

James: Thanks for you tube postings. Ach may love the American people, but he doesn’t accept American jews. How can he? Ach is in his glory days where a man of short stature (who needs a shave) can threaten the world must make his seem like a giant of a man. Dangerous? Yes. The meeting in NY failed. One of the commentators that I saw on TV said it was Obama’s idea to pressure Israel on the settlement withdrawal. Fot the people that see salvation by America helping Israel, they just had a glimpse of the selling out of Poland and Czech Rep. Israel’s best defense lies in Israel.  America isn’t threatened by Iran so it can afford to back off and let the action begin.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/23/09 at 2:23 am

Let us assume that Israel does succeed in destroying the Iranian nuclear facilities, what about the ecological disaster and mass deaths that would follow. And like Saddam Hussein learnt in 1980s when you attack Iran the mullahs in Qom and Tehran will call all the youth to matyrdom and surrender wont be in their vocabularly. Their retaliation may cause Israel to use its own nuclear weapons and surely the world wouldnt have a stomach for that. Image the antisemitic feelings that would arise and not mention terrorist attacks.

Comment by Oscar Shitima on 9/23/09 at 3:54 am

Oscar: Your points are well taken but here’s the way I see it.  Israel is threatened by extinction because of a madman. In order to stop him from gaining a nuke, the Israeli’s must stop him. How, is the big question.  Just by taking out the facilities, the only thing they gain is time.  Israel cannot afford a retaliatory strike by Iran.  Many reasons for this. What Israel has to do is put the fear of God into Iran so that they will not be attacked again. You;re right about martyrdom so there is no single solution.  The world hasn’t faced a dilemna like this before. Israel is just one facet of the rising threat of world domination by the exploding birthrate of the Muslim people. That’s a fact that can’t be swept under the rug. Nice to have you aboard.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/23/09 at 7:23 am

Israel is a puppet of the Anglo-American establishment. It was created as a British outpost in the middle east then it became in American outpost after reigns of power had shifted towards America. As for the zionist lobby, it is no different than the uighyur lobby or the free tibet lobby. The British and the Americans will use whatever means necessary to control their world dominance. Ashkenazis are merely successful financiers, that does not say much when the actual military is controlled by Westerners via Bilderberg, CFR and the trilateral commission.

Comment by Ron on 9/24/09 at 7:07 am

Peace in Israel will be a result of her living in harmony with the muslim nations. strengthening the Israel’s military capacity should be secondary issue. War hawks in Israel and America should understand that while Israel is heavily dependent on its special relationship with the USA some muslim states are becoming self reliant in weapons technology. And secondly it is common knowledge that US supremacy is being challenged by some emerging powers, Russia and China, and these are allies of these so called rogue muslim states. for these two reasons it is important that strategic thinking changes in Israel and beyond. Though we are not disputing that a strong deterrent is imperative but war in itself will only be an opportunity for those that hate Israel to prove their muscle. The recent Lebanon war is an example where Hizbullah proved to be a formidable foe of Israel.

Comment by Oscar on 9/24/09 at 8:46 am

Oscar: You are a dreamer and see a better world.People that live in harmony are people that share the same food and conditions. Families fight but they don’t use suicide bombers. The Lebanon war was a new kind of situation where Israel could have won it if they blew up more buildings and killed more civilians. Lessons were learned by that in Gaza.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/24/09 at 9:47 am

Ron: You’re too much.  Israel isn’t under anyones thumb.
US supremacy in what? Go hock on Saudi Arabia and Jordan being formed by the Brits.  Bitch about these countries not trying to stabilize the situation. After all, they are all brothers. The4 posting you see on my time isn’t correct. My time is just about 9PM. My friends, you are either up early or have had a late night. If you haven’t slept, sleep on it and come back with a smile.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/24/09 at 9:55 am

Sam is blowing up more building and killing more people a good thing. I may be an idealist but we should all remember that everybody is somebody’s baby. for this reason it is always a bad thing when someone dies. the issue you have raised Sam is very invalid look and the Rainbow nation of South Africa there you find blacks and whites living in harmony. Even in generations to come there will be legitimate of completely getting rid of a people in particular part of the world apart from genocide. I am positive the jews having tasted the bitter pill of genocide under Hitler would not be ones to conduct genocide on another people. Personally I feel an affinity for Israel because like us black people suffered slavery they too know suffering. And as for Gaza if Israel is going to continue striking a defenselessly population because of a few bad seeds then it will be falling in the hands of terrorists. Iran fans trouble there to divert attention from itself and to fight Israel in a proxy kind of way.

Comment by Oscar on 9/24/09 at 10:46 am

James Johnson the moslems will take over the west through the ballot Ha Ha Ha. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Let us assume a second generation Muslim Arab born and raised in the USA, just like Obama an African born and raised in the USA, becames president of the USA.Is there anything wrong with that. These fora should be places where people should articulate issues and not entrench hatred. Muslim population growth in itself is not bad what is bad is trying to spread the religion by force. People that want to separate themselves from other people always fail and hence the saying that no man is an Island. The white Racist South African regime learnt that bitter lesson in the 1990s. Zionism is not racism people can practice Zionism even in the midst of other different people. Even in Zambia we have jews that follow the teachings in the bible: no intermarriages, own kind of food etc but we still live in harmony with them. Borders of countries where drawn by western colonialists but true nations transcend beyond such borders and from time immemorial jewish existence has been recorded in almost all parts of the world.

Comment by Oscar on 9/24/09 at 11:11 am

sam corwin BS I’m not an arab

Israel is receiving billions in US funding. Israel may delude themselves into believing that they are fully independent, yet their own history proves otherwise. Saudi Arabia has it’s purposes, a deal was made with the arabs where they would sell oil to the world and would agree to purchase billions in worthless toys from American and British companies. From Gulfstreams to Boeings to GE wind turbines. Israel is meant to secure an outpost in the middle east for the US military. Read the Grand Chessboard by Brzezinski who is in the trilateral commission, american geopolitical strategy is first and foremost to obtain Eurasian pre-eminence, from Afghanistan and Central Asia (cia sponsored the mujahadeen and continues to fund the taliban to this day). Now there is also true islamic extremism and fundamentialism, however a great portion of it has been manipulated and channeled to work for british-american interests.

Comment by Ron on 9/24/09 at 3:22 pm

Let’s talk about the “right to return”. Genetically Palestinians are about at least 90% related to the original Israelites, this has been proven through DNA. Mirazhi is the closest related out of the large 3 groups, then sephardic, Ashkenazi barely any traceable amount.

Ashkenazis are genetically mostly eastern european with Caucasian(caucasus)/anatolian blood.

The actual amount of blood they have is very small, some ashkenazis aren’t even descended the israelites at all.

So most Palestinians are actually israelite or closely related to the israelites that chose to convert.

To put it into context say If a person was .0001% egyptian do they have the right to occupy all of egypt?

Comment by Manuel on 9/24/09 at 3:36 pm

Oscar: A long time ago, jews were slaves but they got over it. Time marches on. Rhodesia-Zimbabwe. Blacks overthrew the white farmers and took over the country.  Good move4? Ask the starving people. Look to the future and not the past.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/24/09 at 7:42 pm

Ron: Politics, greed money all all together in the same mold. Brzinski never favored Israel and his former boss Carter favors the Paletinians. I’m not an arab either nor an Israeli but an American jew who believes that Israel needs to govern its own destiny and not be told what to do by the Americans.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/24/09 at 7:45 pm

Manuel: The “Right to return” will be a moot question should Iran attack (Retaliate) against Israel. The right to return is political and also money driven. The jews that survived the concentration camps and went back to their former homes in Poland were either driven off or killed. From what I’ve read (Could be or not be true) the homes that were formerly owned by the Palestinians were paid for by the Israeli developers.  This action just took place recently where new building is going on. Israel’s greatest threat as most Western governments is loss of government through the ballot box. If there are more arabs than jews in Israel, that’s the end of the jewish stae.  Read up on Belgium and its near crisis situation.
and to the three of you, nice chatting with you. Speak up to be heard.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/24/09 at 7:52 pm

Brzezinski believes that israel should not be such a loose canon and be tamed by the US. As long as Israel does not interfere with the greater geo-political strategy of Europe and Asia as it is doing now.

Israel receives massive aid and support from the US government to act as a buffer for the US as the British mandate of Palestine did before it, the problems occur when israel starts to act out on its own and is not disciplined, which causes much tension in the region.

Comment by Ron on 9/24/09 at 9:30 pm

Ron: Israel loose cannon?Why because it retaliated to the rocket attacks? I don’t buy that. “Buffer”, I would use the word forward base for the US.  They have one in Kuwait now. Massive aid is buying US weaponry etc. The region is simmering in hatred, religious, political and plain greed. No one solution to a myriad of problems.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/25/09 at 12:09 am

Sam Corwin what you are saying is very very valid the past has to be put behind but not forgotten. the world would be a very lovely place if all just looked to the future and forgot the past but in reality there is no future without the past. That is how come you still hear of people getting annoyed the President of Iran says that the holocaust is a myth. Holocaust is in the past why havent people moved on and forgotten about it. Everybody talks of slave trade some say it was not as serious as it is believed but that that not raise emotions amongst black people.

Comment by Oscar on 9/25/09 at 5:08 am

Oscar: I am not a philospher, just an old man. You cannot live in the past but try to learn from the mistakes of the past.Pity the poor slaves but you can’t resurrect them. You move on. One settler writes about burning the Palestinian’s trees down, taking his rage out on the farmer rather than the establishment. The venting of a madman has to be taken seriously because he may have the means to carry out his threats. The man cannot believe there was no holocaust but uses this as a means of putting down the jews. But, there were the gypsies and German dissenters etc that were burned up as well. Israel has been threatened.  Is the threat real? And if it is, what now?

Comment by sam corwin on 9/25/09 at 9:53 am

Sam/Oscar/Ron:  Hello….  referring to Sam’s pervious comment, I’d say the threat was substantial and very real.  Ahmedinejad is a PhD educated man and a man in a position of high office the president and face of the ruling party in Iran.  He knows full well what he’s doing, he’s not stupid, he’s not insane nor is he crazy, because I believe he knows what he’s doing.  His words and moves have a purpose.  This is my thoughts on the man.  To us (rest of the world) he sounds mad.  Like Colonel Gadhafi’s 100 minute long rant at the U.N the other day - pitiful - almost comic.
Today comes to light that Iran has another enrichment facility which up until now has been kept secret, what other facilities do they have which we know nothing about and why did they give up information on the other until now unknown site?
Trying to look clean and honest, is it a dupe?  Is their a far more secret installation somewhere else and this one is the decoy?  I’m full of questions on all this….
James.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/25/09 at 11:30 am

James: Nothing has changed.  Did Ach yawn when pressed about his “Secret” site? Sure. He basically said “So what, do me something”.Line in the sand, sanctions all rhetoric. His degree means that he’s well educated.  He’s a good poker player but even the best sometimes lose.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/25/09 at 7:39 pm

also, where was the new site located? In a military base. Two things: How did they find it? and the location itself is ominous.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/25/09 at 7:41 pm

What does everyone think of the Russian statement that when Peres visited he told the Russians that Israel will not use military force against the Iranian nuclear threat?

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/25/09 at 8:10 pm

Walter: 1.Noone knows what he said. 2.It’s highly unlikely that he said that. 3. I think he told the Russians to start getting their people out of Iran. 4.
Governments lie.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/26/09 at 12:05 am

Why sam, how cynical, “governments lie”.
  Interesting that it’s now coming out that Israel wanted to strike but Bush wouldn’t allow Iraq airspace to be used nor would he provide other military tactical support. What an ass; it would have been so much easier back then without the Russian 300 series anti-aircraft GTA missiles, plus the Nantez site wasn’t hardened, etc. Like a deja vu all over again, US was all pissed off at Israel when they bombed the Iraq nuclear site, then many years later sent a message to Israel thanking them cuz during Iraq 1 US soldiers didn’t have to worry about Saddam having nuclear capabilities. Now when the US ends up in a war with Iran we’re gonna be kicking ourselves in the ass.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/26/09 at 12:23 am

Walter: Sedond guessing, is no good.  I believe Israel would have gone ahead with or without US approval. I think Gaza was at the time more vital than striking Iran. Israel will not wait on US approval.  They will pick a time and a place and do what needs to be done. Interesting thing I just read about Al Queda warning the Saudis that they’re gonna do them damage (Royal family).  The belief is that the operations are coming from Yemen.More aside problems than just settlements and nukes.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/26/09 at 1:15 am

Sam: You certainly are correct in that Gaza was a heavy preoccupation at the time. However I tend to believe that Israel would have struck Iran if the US had given tactical aid at the time. Israel does what it believes is in the best interests of Israel, you are right in that sense, and does not need US approval. I believe it to be true that Israel assessed the military situation and concluded that a military strike at that time would only work if given fly over approval over Iraq and other tactical support from the US. It was an oppurtunity that would have worked if the US agreed; ultimately Israel thought that the military circumstances then necessitated US help vis a vis bunker buster bombs and air space among other things. That’s not to say in the least that if and when Israel decides it’s time the US will basically have no sway over their decision.
In fact, I am surprised that they haven’t undergone the military option already, especially with the latest news that Iran has had a second secret facility operating for close to three years that “no one knew of”. I’m quite certain Israeli intelligence knew about it long ago.
  What I have been musing over is why Israel hasn’t struck yet. Diplomacy obviously is a dead end. The only reason that I can come up with is that Israel is giving the “West” it’s due time to try diplomacy, all the while planning the attack so that when diplomacy does fail the political fallout for Israel will be minimized. Then again, they have to weigh that with the fact that with every day that goes by the Iranians are hardening their nuclear facilities, installing new Russian anti-aircraft missiles, etc. The October “summit between Iran and the West will probably be the final act. When that fails to rein in Iran, which is essentially de facto, then I believe the bombs and missiles will fly. I figure a new Middle East war in late October/November. It seems almost unstoppable now unless some incredible breakthrough or unforeseen event occurs. I just don’t believe for a moment that Israel believes that Iran is only developing “peaceful” nuclear capabilities, never has, never will, so they really have no choice in order to survive as a sovereign state. I shudder at the number of lives that are going to be lost this fall.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/26/09 at 2:32 am

Walter: I believe the biggest threat that Israel faces is a retaliatory strike, if they do strike Iran. This is an overpowering burden resting on the shoulders of the Israeli thinkers. Diplomacy won’t work. My thinking is almost unimaginable.  The only deterrent to Iran is a nuke attack by Israel with the threat that should Iran retaliate, there will no longer be an Iran. They promise detruction of the jewish state and that includes the people. Are they willing to eat their words? Remember this as everchanging times and normal bombings/warfare are almost obsolete.  You need to think like a guerilla and go for the throat.  I shudder at the tremendous cost of lives.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/26/09 at 2:43 am

Sam, this is really scary stuff we’re discussing. If it does come down to this the world will never be the same. I certainly will never be the same, and i worry about my children if that is their future.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/26/09 at 3:13 am

Walter: The world has never been this dangerous. Iran may bring about its own destruction. The course it is pursuing will lead to a catastrophe which will dwarf the two bombs exploded in Japan. They cannot continue on in the vein of “You can’t tell Iran what to do.” In this they are right however endangering the world, is another matter. They must be stopped.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/26/09 at 5:45 am

Its so very sad to watch so many people going about their daily lives distracted and seemingly oblivious to the approaching hurricane as they make plans for their future,thinking that things will never change but will always be the same. This rapidly approaching storm is not one that will just"blow over”.

Comment by tom on 9/26/09 at 10:25 am

Hello everyone:  I read the today that the secret nuclear facility which is based near Qom was discovered by British MI6, CIA and French Intelligence as far back as 2006.  It’s been known about, secretly by Western intelligence for all of this time.  The chess game is in full swing and the fact this information was disclosed at the G20 in Pittsburg was no coincidence.  Most people probably are walking about thinking it was discovered this past week, but this disclosure has been closely and carefully staged to get the most attention and convince minds, groom the population prior to the storm that is brewing on the horizon.  This is scary stuff, it is very real and a clear and present danger.  I do not know what the undoing of this knot of war shall be?  Whether it shall come in the form of pure diplomacy or mass blood letting on a vast scale, if personally fear that it’ll take the latter course.  The regime in Tehran is gearing up for conflict in the hope of unifying the people behind the regime.  Statement just in: ‘Nuclear plant shall blind the enemies’ Iranian official blurts!  Referring to the new plant near Qom.
Terrible times.
I was out relaxing last night with friends at a bar in my home town, quiet for a Friday night, tuning into the chatter, numerous conversations on other tables were about the very subject, then back to the financial crisis, then back to Iran….
I think some people realise what’s fermenting here…

Comment by James Johnson on 9/26/09 at 11:34 am

Manual: You state that “... Genetically Palestinians are about at least 90% related to the original Israelisis has been proven through DNA” and “Mirazhi is the closest related out of the large 3 groups, then sephardic, Ashkenazi barely any traceable amount”, and lastly “.Ashkenazis are genetically mostly eastern european with Caucasian(caucasus)/anatolian blood….So most Palestinians are actually israelite or closely related to the israelites that chose to convert.”
  I’m not quite sure what you are stating here. First of all, all races of Homo Sapiens are genetically 99.9% the same. That is to say, if the two most disparate genetically speaking races are compared, they differ only in .1% of their genome. It follows that to say Palestinians are 90% related to the original Israelis” is therefore wrong; in fact, Palestinians and Jews both carry at least 99.9% of the same genetic sequence. Furthermore, Palestinians and Jews both carry the same y -chromosome haplotype STR’s (short tandem repeats: area’s of DNA subject to high DNA drift mutations and shift mutations, therefore useful as genographic-racial profiles) M89, M170, and M172 as well as the maternal mitochondrial haplotypes STR’s M, M1, and N.
  From a genographic perspective Israeli and Palestinian DNA is virtually identical as they all contain the Middle Eastern haplotypes M89, M170, M172, M, M1, and N.
  However one must not confuse genetic similarity with genographic similar mutations in STR’s of the DNA molecule. These random mutations are usefull in following population trends and migrations over long periods of time, but these mutations are non-expressable parts of the human genome. In addition most occurred twenty thousand to sixty thousand years ago, and as mutations they are mostly non-expressive portions of the genome. They say nothing about genetically influenced disease or behaviors per se, just that they might serve as markers to identify possible disease traits common to certain populations. I
  I believe that perhaps you are confusing this issue with genographic studies done on the Cohanim, Ashkenazi Levites, and Shephardi Jewish groups.
  These studies compared patterns of genetic variation on the paternally inherited non-recombining region of the Y chromosome (NRY). Cohanim and Levites would be expected to display lower gene diversity of NRY haplotypes because of recent shared Middle Eastern ancestry.  The distribution of haplotype frequencies, in the absence of drift, should be similar in Cohanim and in Levites. In particular the Ashkenazi Levites and Sephardi Levites should show common haplotype frequencies.
  However, in fact a specific marker haplotype, the Cohen Modal Haplotype (CMH), and a cluster of closely related haplotypes within a single haplogroup (defined by slowly mutating unique event polymorphisms (UEP) ) were found in over 50% of Ashkenazi Levites but not in the Cohanim or Shephardi groups. Both CMH and the clustered haplotypes from UEP were unique to Northeastern Europe.
  This finding was due to the genographic inititial settlement,ompact group of Jewish settlers in Northwestern Europe eventually grew in population, and with unique cultural and religious aspects came to be named Ashkenazi Jews. It is not surprising therefore that their genotype contains Northwestern European haplotypes rather than Middle Eastern haplotypes.
  Thus, the distinctive non-middle Eastern haplotype CMH and clustered related haplotypes secondary to UEP’s come from the geographical origin of the Ashkenazi Jews and is distinct from Middle Eastern haplotypes common to Sephardi Levites, Cohanims, and Palestinians.
  However I am not clear what you are attempting to say in your comments. That Palestinians are genetically more similar to several major Jewish groups than Ashkenazi Jews are? One can not state that catagorically as fact. All one can state is that Palestinians and several major Jewish groups have similar mutations unique to the Middle East; this really has nothing to do with overall point by point alelle similarity over the entire genome. You cannot confuse a tool used for migratory population trends over time with traits that genetically influence behaviors, physical traits, disease states, etc. in any current modern defined gene pool. For that you need the exact nucleotide sequence and site of a particular trait or disease state you are inquiring into.


Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/26/09 at 6:08 pm

Tom: I fully agree. A worldwide crisis is pending and there is no easy solution.It’s a shame that words (Diplomacy) has failed. Check the smugness on Ach. His attitude is “So what”, do me something. Welcome aboard
James: Everything (Timing) was staged. A big show “For the People”.
Walter: You guys sound like talmud students. The question about Iran supercedes all of your dialogue with Manuel. When the shit hits the fan, it doesn’t matter who you are or where you came from.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/26/09 at 7:45 pm

Sam: I don’t even know what that means “you guys sound like talmud students”. Gimmme’ a break, you the moderator of this forum now?
James: Where did you get the info that MI6/CIA/French knew about the facility since 2006? If they knew then Israel, Russia, etc. knew as well.
The fact that Iran came clean now and is inviting inspections may represent a fundamental change in posture, or an Iranian rouse. Time will tell; total pessimism doesn’t have to rule this forum. Perhaps Iran is beginning to understand that the entire world community is aligning against them now that Russia and China are calling on them to open up. In the past they always had major players on the UN security con. on their side, or at least unwilling to give them grief.
I haven’t totally ruled out diplomacy, albeit late and not likely to happen. One has to have hope, however remote.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/26/09 at 8:14 pm

Walter: Genetics have nothing to do with who is going to get killed in the event Iran retaliates. Moderator? Nope. Having been in the military, being inspected and inspecting I can offer this regarding Iran’s open invitation to inspect. Knowing that an inspection will be on Saturday, by Friday night all contraband etc will be hidden somewhere and comes Saturday, you find nothing unusual. The only way to inspect is by saying you’ll inspect on Saturday and do it on Wednesday when everyone is not prepared. Saying I’ll give you two weeks to inspect is like saying, you have two weeks to hide your stuff. Useless inspection. Politically correct.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/26/09 at 11:08 pm

Sam: Genetics have everything to do with a lot of the current Middle Eastern tension. Ach does NOT say that the Holocaust did not happen. All his speeches refer to Germany
being responsible for not only killing 6 million+ Jews but also that Germany and
Russia under Stalin killed some 70 million other people that he feels are not thought of in the same way. His illogical then continues as he then states that the Palestinians had nothing to do with Jewish deaths in WW II, hence why should they give up their “homeland” for the creation of Israel. He then buttresses his argument by stating that Palestinians have “Middle East” blood (i.e. genetics) that place them firmly in the Middle East, whereas Jews have no such history. He states that Jews populated the globe and are not of Middle Eastern heritage, thus the Palestinians and Arab states have sole province to the Middle East.
  It is 1940 thinking all over again, and in Ach’s mind racial or genetic heritage is at the heart of the “Palestinian Problem”, and why he states that “Israel should be wiped off the face of the Middle East”, not “the world” as some believe he means. I’ve listened to 15-20 of his mad speeches and his main argument is that the Palestinians “belong” in the Middle East, whereas Jews do not, and he wants them wiped away from the Middle East. Ach states that those responsible for Jewish deaths in WW II should provide a homeland, i.e. the axis powers.
  That is why such pseudo-science nonsense as articulated by Manual must be corrected with proper science. When he states in this forum that most Israeli’s are genetically more similar to Europeans than Palestinians what he is subtly saying is that the Jews don’t belong in the Middle East, whereas the Palestinians do. This is the exact argument that Ach makes in his arguments to wipe Israel off Palestinian land, and furthermore is a mask for racist genocide.
These statements cannot go uncorrected. The Jewish people have all the correct Middle Eastern genetic markers, except for Ashkenazi Levites, who were an isolated genetic pool in Europe for thousands of years, shedding their Middle Eastern markers and acquiring European markers.
  Regardless, genetics form the basis for all the racist statements coming out of Iran, and I feel that it is vital that everyone knows the correct scientific facts, such that another Jewish genocide is indefensible on grounds that Palestinians somehow have more heritage in the Middle East.
  It may be seem tangential and not obvious to us in the West, but genetics or “historical heritage” or whatever one calls it certainly is vitally important in Iran’s global viewpoint and Iran’s view of Israel. Almost everyone of Ach’s speeches state at some point that Israel doesn’t “belong” in the Middle East, the Palestinians do and must be rescued, and Iran’s entire Middle East policy is dependent on this fallacy. In pointing out the true science of who belongs where we are confronting Ach at the very heart of his argumentative fallacy, and simultaneously dismissing Iran’s main argument for opposing Israel and their entire viewpoint of the authenticity of the Jewish State and the “Palestinian problem”. I believe Ach truly believes what he says, and perhaps someday he may come to face the scientific facts if enough of us know them. So yea, I felt my thoughts were vital to both understanding the Iranian mind-set as well as providing knowledge as power such that peoples do not buy his erroneous pseudo-science.
  It certainly does not directly affect how many deaths will occur in the coming months, but is substansive knowledge that everyone who discusses the current crisis should have some kind of grip on, and most certainly is valid to this forum and discussion. I did feel that you were dismissive of my email and somewhat rude in stating that it belongs in a Talmud discussion. I am an American of Polish descent, Roman Catholic, and have no idea what a Talmud even is; I assume that it relates to the Jewish people? I believe knowledge is power, and any reasonable intellectual discussion related to the whole Iranian-Israeli conflict should be welcomed in this forum, not dismissed forthright as irrelevant, and believe me it is VERY relevant to the Iranians.

Walter

Comment by Walter Wrobleski on 9/27/09 at 5:01 am

Walter: What I said about the CIA/MI6/French Intelligence services knowing of the Qom site in Iran is correct, it’s all over the media if you look.  I read 2006, while some media outlets are saying 2007: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/25/AR2009092500289.html
Quite simply this was a staged event by the West, Iran got wind of our upcoming disclosure and decided to come clean just days prior to the announcement.  I am no t being pessimistic regarding this, just reflecting what I am observing on the world stage.

Comment by James Johnson on 9/27/09 at 5:56 am

Walter: You know more about the Semites in Israel/Palestine than I do. You talk about genes and I talk about people getting killed.  The Talmud is the jewish bible and is taught to such a degree in the rabbinical schools that they argue as to what every word means etc etc etc. So Iran fired off a few more short range missiles today.  Move the missiles into Gaza or Lebanon and short range does now pose another threat to Israel. We live in dangerous times my friend and when the conflict erupts it will be devastating. I don’t try to put you down.  You are more learned than I am. Stay with us.

Comment by sam corwin on 9/27/09 at 7:50 am

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