April 14, 2005
New Study Breaks Down 2004 Election
Newly compiled information suggests that a few more Jews voted for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry last November than originally reported, and highlights several areas where Republicans are gaining momentum within the Jewish community.
The analysis by the Solomon Project, a think tank associated with the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC), shows that the Massachusetts senator received 77 percent of the Jewish vote, to President Bush's 22 percent. That's a slight change from the 75 percent Kerry was said to have received in polls released soon after the vote.
The new information, released Tuesday, is based on a broader sample of exit polls that incorporates both the national poll released in November and a state-by-state poll that was not widely released.
The wider survey finds that Bush fared particularly well with Jewish men, garnering 28 percent of their votes, compared to 16 percent of Jewish women. In particular, he captured 35 percent of Jewish men younger than 30.
The new report could put to rest lingering questions about the extent of gains Bush made within the Jewish community. Many Republicans expected Bush would do well among Jews -- especially in such targeted key states as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- because of support for his Middle East policy.
In the end, Bush won more than the 19 percent of the vote he received in the 2000 election against then-Vice President Al Gore and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.), the first Jew on a major party national ticket.
"There's been some small movement in the Jewish community toward the Republicans, but nothing really dramatic," said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst.
Rothenberg said he found the report's methodology "kosher," but Matthew Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition, said he is wary of exit poll analysis because the results on Election Day seemed to inflate Democratic strength.
"I think any credible person would look at this as somewhat revisionist history," Brooks said. "I don't think this passes the credibility threshold in terms of statistical accuracy."
The report does confirm the potential for greater movement of Jewish votes to the GOP in the future.
Republicans have been targeting young Jewish voters and the Orthodox, who have become more politically active in recent years, and are considered more likely to vote for the GOP because of their more conservative positions on social issues.
The analysis uses a wide set of polling data on Jews taken in the weeks and months before the election to understand voting trends within subgroups of Jews.
While no analysis of Jewish votes has had enough Orthodox participants to garner a reliable result, Tuesday's report suggests that Bush may have received half or more of their votes.
Three independent polls had Bush winning at least half of the Orthodox vote, but each had a sample size of only between 49 and 70 people.
A report by the American Jewish Committee last summer, taken of Russian Jews, suggested Bush may have received more than half of their support as well.
A poll by the Mellman Group, which did surveys for the Kerry campaign, found that 47 percent of Jews who attend synagogue every week supported Bush, compared to 48 percent for Kerry. The Democrat did substantially better among Jews who attended synagogue once a month or less.
"We know a lot more about different types of Jewish voters than we did a few days ago," said Ira Forman, research director of the Solomon Project and the NJDC's executive director.
Forman said the information highlighted for him that Democratic efforts to court Orthodox and Russian voters were inadequate.
The core of Democratic support within the Jewish community remains women, the analysis found. Kerry received 82 percent of the vote among Jewish women. That Democratic trend ran across the generations, as 90 percent of women older than 60 voted for Kerry and 88 percent of Jewish women younger than 30 backed him.
Despite the support Bush got for his Israel policies, Rothenberg said it's hard to move ethnic groups from one party to another.
"It's hard to change people's inclinations and pre-existing voter preference," he said. "If they've chosen one way for 20 or 30 years, they tend to do it again."
But, he said, the Jewish vote will remain important if the election hinges on certain states where disproportionately large numbers of Jews live.
"It's all about what states people are in and how many people you need to move," Rothenberg said.